Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

The ride never ends!

https://twitter.com/TaylorPopielarz/status/1424899617846595590

FL-20's new Congressperson, everybody

[Oryxslayer]

The ride never ends!

Probably an announcement that her campaign ain't ending and is going on to 2022. Which is just more similarities between the Turner campaign and some of the most annoying/unprofessional campaigns from those without a progressive ideology.

Like has been said many times over: there are many ways to run good campaigns, and many different types of good candidates - no particular faction has a monopoly on these things. For example, Cori Bush had the right candidate message for the moment in MO-01, but her campaign organization was average. But Turner is and had neither.

[jdk]

This primary is a sad indictment of the democratic party. "You criticize us, we'll use whatever dirty tactics to make sure you never get into power". Biden was a bowl of sh**t.

All they did make the public more informed by providing an accurate picture of who she is with direct quotes of things they actually said.  The fact that was enough to sink her campaign when she had every single possible systematic advantage working in her favor shows how awful she truly is.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Maybe she can run for congress in Maryland.  You know, where she actually lives.

[_.]

The ride never ends!

https://twitter.com/TaylorPopielarz/status/1424899617846595590

FL-20's new Congressperson, everybody

We here in FL-20 will reject Turner even harder than OH-11!

[Pollster]

Allison Russo has been quietly running a very aggressive campaign for OH-15 - we're not likely to see a lot of polling here and there are no signs yet the GOP is concerned about a district that is quite Republican, but possibly worth keeping an eye on.

[Roll Roons]

Allison Russo has been quietly running a very aggressive campaign for OH-15 - we're not likely to see a lot of polling here and there are no signs yet the GOP is concerned about a district that is quite Republican, but possibly worth keeping an eye on.

I obviously expect a Republican win, but the race not getting any attention and therefore not being nationalized can only play to Russo's benefit.

[beesley]

The ride never ends!

https://twitter.com/TaylorPopielarz/status/1424899617846595590

FL-20's new Congressperson, everybody

We here in FL-20 will reject Turner even harder than OH-11!

Is the race there attracting much, if any, attention in your local view? I presumed DuBose would be the natural frontrunner.

[_.]

Is the race there attracting much, if any, attention in your local view?

Campaign signs and billboards are up for different people on every street

Political signs that you don't read are just part of life here and I'll be honest I largely have forgotten about this race as have the majority of others (maybe? It's not like these are conversation topics lol)
I honestly think it'll come down to name recognition as from previous experience the candidate's name who I see on the signs the most usually ends up winning.

I presumed DuBose would be the natural frontrunner.

DuBose, or as the average resident of FL-20 knows him, "Who?"
TBH he has a really good chance of winning though

Experience is valued here

[BuckeyeNut]

Allison Russo has been quietly running a very aggressive campaign for OH-15 - we're not likely to see a lot of polling here and there are no signs yet the GOP is concerned about a district that is quite Republican, but possibly worth keeping an eye on.

I obviously expect a Republican win, but the race not getting any attention and therefore not being nationalized can only play to Russo's benefit.

Yeah, I'm not so sure about that. Or at least, there's a tricky balance to strike between bringing attention to how bad a candidate Carey is and avoiding nationalization. If the median voter assumes Carey is like Stivers, he will do fine, though there should still be a significant change in the margin from past results here. (Stivers only got less than 60% of the vote once in 2018, and even then, his opponent did not win Franklin County.) Suppose the median voter realizes Carey is a scummy corporate lobbyist with deep ties to Larry Householder. In that case, Carey will have problems in the most populous portions of the district, but the money needed to get that message out effectively runs the risk of nationalization.

All of that said, NRCC is going up big here in the next couple of days, and they wouldn't be doing that if they didn't think Russo had a shot. (They never spent on Stivers.) I'd guess Russo loses by 8%, plus or minus 5%, depending on how these final few weeks go. Even a 13% loss would be decent, given the current political climate. The best any Congressional candidate has ever done was still a 19% loss, and that was in 2018!

[wbrocks67]

Emerson/NBC4 has Carey up 50-39:

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/your-local-election-hq/oh-15-poll-republican-mike-carey-leads-democrat-allison-russo-among-likely-voters/

[Devils30]

Emerson/NBC4 has Carey up 50-39:

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/your-local-election-hq/oh-15-poll-republican-mike-carey-leads-democrat-allison-russo-among-likely-voters/

Trump won it 56-42 so not terribly impressive. That said, just as polls underestimated Dems in CA and may in VA, we could have the opposite error in some of these WWC areas south of Columbus.

[2016]

Republicans finally get back to 2013 Seats! Hope it stays that way for the next year to put pressure on Pelosi!

[BuckeyeNut]

My final guess here is Russo -8%, +/-3%.

[_.]

The Democratic primary in my district FL-20 is occurring today*

I'd actually forgotten about it until passing the elementary school next to my neighborhood and seeing an obscene amount of campaign signs.

Hopefully someone good wins (not that I know any of the candidates lol)


* The other primary is to find out who'll be second place

[_.]

LEAKED RESULTS!!!

Image Link

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Polls in OH close in 20 minutes!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-11 going overwhelmingly Dem

Rs ahead 54%-46% in the 15th so far

[_.]

My district seems to have an especially close race between Holness and Cherfilus-McCormick. Both at 24% of the vote

Holness is more popular in Broward which he mayored for many years

McCormick in Palm Beach

I'll give McCormick that she's a very intense Campaigner

Her signs go up every two years, are literally everywhere, and her work seems to be paying off...

[Badger]

OH-11 going overwhelmingly Dem

Rs ahead 54%-46% in the 15th so far

 The 15th is badly gerrymandered  Like the rest of Ohio, and this is an off your election with a Democrat in the White House. The only issue here is  The margin. Hopefully russo can avoid an embarrassment.

[walleye26]

OH-11 going overwhelmingly Dem

Rs ahead 54%-46% in the 15th so far

 The 15th is badly gerrymandered  Like the rest of Ohio, and this is an off your election with a Democrat in the White House. The only issue here is  The margin. Hopefully russo can avoid an embarrassment.

This seems to be a crazy overperformance. Is early vote dropped first?

[lfromnj]

OH-11 going overwhelmingly Dem

Rs ahead 54%-46% in the 15th so far

 The 15th is badly gerrymandered  Like the rest of Ohio, and this is an off your election with a Democrat in the White House. The only issue here is  The margin. Hopefully russo can avoid an embarrassment.

Some of the gerrymander is partially to help Ohio 03 be more black to get black caucus support along with Stivers wanting a lot of bank areas. The most partisan part is probably scooping up athens from Ohio 6th.

[_.]

Holness leads McCormick by 78 votes with 99% reporting!

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455705163050754051?s=20

[Lourdes]

Cherfilus-McCormick is now ahead of Holness in FL-20 by just 31 votes.