Will Green County, WI flip?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Green County in WI flip? It voted for Clinton by 2 and Biden by 3, but has note voted Republican since 1988.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It seems like it would be favored to, but it's really hard to know without Trump on the ballot. Demographically, the county is ripe for the GOP, at least in it's current state, but it'll be interesting to see which direction the GOP decides to head in 2024.

[Alcibiades]

It’s possible, as it was decided by a few hundred votes in both 2016 and 2020, but the growing influence of Madison could help keep it blue.

[Hope For A New Era]

No. If it didn't flip in 2016 or 2020, it won't flip in 2024.*

*Unless the R candidate in 2024 is Trump, in which case it's a tossup county. No other R has the Trump magic.

[SN2903]

Yes. GOP will win Wisconsin by 3 to 4% in 2024.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Trying to predict this before Biden even takes office seems like a fool's errand. It's possible but we need to see how the term goes.

It’s possible, as it was decided by a few hundred votes in both 2016 and 2020, but the growing influence of Madison could help keep it blue.

Maybe. There isn't very much suburban development here to pack a lot of new voters in, and there's plenty of space in Dane for Madison metro to eat up before they would expand into Green.

Worth noting that New Glarus is the home of the biggest craft brewer in the state and gets a lot of patronage from people in the Madison area. The current owner seems to have connections to Obama (including being invited by Obama to watch one of the SOTUs in person) so I would bet this company and its local presence are friendly to the Democratic party. Maybe you can make the argument that New Glarus is influenced by Madison in this sense.

I can't link to the township map but you can find it on the Atlas results page. Biden won by 700 votes; he had a 400 vote margin in New Glarus and about ~500 in Monroe, and netted 100-300 each in the townships on the northern border. But the map here is pretty much identical to 2016, and if there wasn't a lot of rural bleeding in the last four years (especially in the supercharged turnout race) it's hard to see where the momentum comes from to further erode these margins.

[Alcibiades]

Trying to predict this before Biden even takes office seems like a fool's errand. It's possible but we need to see how the term goes.

It’s possible, as it was decided by a few hundred votes in both 2016 and 2020, but the growing influence of Madison could help keep it blue.

Maybe. There isn't very much suburban development here to pack a lot of new voters in, and there's plenty of space in Dane for Madison metro to eat up before they would expand into Green.

Worth noting that New Glarus is the home of the biggest craft brewer in the state and gets a lot of patronage from people in the Madison area. The current owner seems to have connections to Obama (including being invited by Obama to watch one of the SOTUs in person) so I would bet this company and its local presence are friendly to the Democratic party. Maybe you can make the argument that New Glarus is influenced by Madison in this sense.

I can't link to the township map but you can find it on the Atlas results page. Biden won by 700 votes; he had a 400 vote margin in New Glarus and about ~500 in Monroe, and netted 100-300 each in the townships on the northern border. But the map here is pretty much identical to 2016, and if there wasn't a lot of rural bleeding in the last four years (especially in the supercharged turnout race) it's hard to see where the momentum comes from to further erode these margins.

Interesting. I had assumed that Green, like Iowa County (and this year Sauk), and unlike other rural WI counties, had stayed D because it neighboured Dane, but do you think there’s another more important reason?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Trying to predict this before Biden even takes office seems like a fool's errand. It's possible but we need to see how the term goes.

It’s possible, as it was decided by a few hundred votes in both 2016 and 2020, but the growing influence of Madison could help keep it blue.

Maybe. There isn't very much suburban development here to pack a lot of new voters in, and there's plenty of space in Dane for Madison metro to eat up before they would expand into Green.

Worth noting that New Glarus is the home of the biggest craft brewer in the state and gets a lot of patronage from people in the Madison area. The current owner seems to have connections to Obama (including being invited by Obama to watch one of the SOTUs in person) so I would bet this company and its local presence are friendly to the Democratic party. Maybe you can make the argument that New Glarus is influenced by Madison in this sense.

I can't link to the township map but you can find it on the Atlas results page. Biden won by 700 votes; he had a 400 vote margin in New Glarus and about ~500 in Monroe, and netted 100-300 each in the townships on the northern border. But the map here is pretty much identical to 2016, and if there wasn't a lot of rural bleeding in the last four years (especially in the supercharged turnout race) it's hard to see where the momentum comes from to further erode these margins.

Interesting. I had assumed that Green, like Iowa County (and this year Sauk), and unlike other rural WI counties, had stayed D because it neighboured Dane, but do you think there’s another more important reason?

Well, keeping rural margins down probably has good effects on the margins and in a close race that's probably enough to win. I'm sure a lot of people in those northern townships and/or New Glarus/Belleville/etc. are there because of proximity to Madison in some form. I'm just saying it's not a typical suburban county in the sense that there isn't an influx of suburban voters in new housing developments like you see in a lot of places (e.g., Dallas County IA).

But I do think that New Glarus has a big effect. The Swiss heritage center stuff in New Glarus may also have an effect? I'm hesitant to ascribe to that because I know other heritage centers don't really have the same effect (thinking of Lafayette LA). I don't know a ton of Swiss ethnography so IDK if this is a D-friendly ancestry group. But it's worth noting that Green County has a disproportionately high number of Swiss Americans.


(wikimedia)

the maroon dot is Green County

[AGA]

I don't see why it would, but it's obviously possible.