2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Xing]

My guess is that the PV will be more like R+2 than R+5-6, but the results in the Senate/House might look like a wave, since it would mean Republicans are taking the House by a decent margin and flipping the Senate, albeit more narrowly.

[MT Treasurer]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

Obviously a partisan source, but Biden holding up better in PA-08 than AZ-01 and PA-17 particularly seems pretty doubtful (though I suppose that's in line with pollsters consistently finding overinflated Democratic numbers in the non-big metro upper Midwest).

I agree with this (and the take that the R margins are inflated in some of these districts), but this does fly in the face of the "PA is highly inelastic even in R-leaning years" theory that’s often adduced to undergird the D-friendly predictions about PA (e.g. PA voting considerably more D than WI or even NH) or disregard the state's R trend since 2008.

[Roll Roons]

Disappointing news - Anthony Gonzalez won't run for reelection: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/us/politics/anthony-gonzalez-ohio-trump.html

I feel really bad for him. His family was getting harassed by Trump supporters after he voted for impeachment.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

I can buy some of these, but really struggle to buy Biden-14 in KS-03 or Biden-21 in PA-17, PA-08 especially is a place where I'd expect Biden to become quite unpopular once he actually starts doing stuff in office, Cartwright is probably doomed, but it's not like we didn't know this anyways.

Normally I'd be dismissive of the Biden disapprove/D vote being anything notable but the state leg. specials suggest there is a little bit of this at the moment.

I mean, these people exist. I should know; I'm one of them. I cannot stand Joe Biden, he's not using his bully pulpit nearly enough, but I'm still going to vote blue in '22.

Last night's Cali results also suggest these doomsayer numbers are not true. You can't draw conclusions but Dems are clearly still in the game for 2022 in House.

College educated whites trending Democratic is going to save the Democrats in 2021 and 2022. They have high rates of turnout compared to the WWC. Republicans had the edge in midterms because college educated whites voted Republican.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The generic ballot looks pretty much the same as it did at the same date for Democrats in 2013, and its maybe a hair better for them than on the same date in 2009.  

Doesn't mean that things will play out exactly the same, but as a realist, I think the most likely outcome is still that things go south for the Democrats over the next 14 months (and even if they don't go south, GOP is likely in a position to at least win the house back at this very moment). I hope I'm wrong!

Pollsters using their 2010 and 2014 turnout models are already getting them in huge trouble. It should be pretty clear after Virginia in 6 weeks that the Dems are still showing up to vote and pollsters should adjust accordingly.

How are Registered Voters (RV) (which nearly all the current generic ballot polls are, as opposed to Likely Voters) polls "using 2010 and 2014 turnout models?"  Aren't RV polls by definition not using any type of a turnout model?

Lots of RV polls still weight by self-reported likelihood to vote and are differentiated from their LV alternatives because they do not impose further screens. This isn’t always reliable, especially if there is a trend of certain groups under or over-reporting or becoming more/less likely to self-report an intention to vote as Election Day draws nearer.

[Pollster]

Axne +4 against Zach Nunn in a Nunn internal - caveat that this poll is of the old district lines.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1438488649830653957?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

Axne +4 against Zach Nunn in a Nunn internal - caveat that this poll is of the old district lines.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1438488649830653957?s=20

So Nunn +2 under the old IA-03? That's believable.

[BoiseBoy]

2018 Gov nominee and Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro is running against Delgado in NY-19.

https://twitter.com/timesunion/status/1439274036664602628?s=21

[Mr.Phips]

2018 Gov nominee and Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro is running against Delgado in NY-19.

https://twitter.com/timesunion/status/1439274036664602628?s=21

Dems definitely need to redraw this seat to make it more Dem.

[Devils30]

2018 Gov nominee and Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro is running against Delgado in NY-19.

https://twitter.com/timesunion/status/1439274036664602628?s=21

Dems definitely need to redraw this seat to make it more Dem.

They will, it will probably extend up north and take in blue parts east of Albany while shedding the redder sections to the west.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Rs sweeping IA

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if this was posted, but 538's GCB tracker is live:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Currently has Dems 44-41

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So much for Rs sweeping IA

Way to early to pop the corks on this one.

Republicans typically under poll in Iowa, even the Selzer poll underestimates by a little.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Rs sweeping IA

Way to early to pop the corks on this one.

Republicans typically under poll in Iowa, even the Selzer poll underestimates by a little.

Lol it's 14  mnths til the Election do you guys think Grassley is gonna win by 20 no, he ran against Judge in 2016/ he isn't gonna win that easy

But as I said on another thread Rs think IA, MN, WI, OH are IN and MO


Election Guy comes on every month and says Barnes is a weak candidate and Rs are a shoe in for WI and Tammy Baldwin WI by 10 pts

Lol WI voted for every D Prez except Kennedy


Tammy Baldwin is way to the left of Barnes whom was Elected statewide as Lt Gov and Johnson is tied not leading in last poll, just because it's an internal Johnson is leading PLSE
.
Tim Ryan is tied in a poll against Rs not down by 20, Vance and MANDEL aren't Rob Portman

TX is IN with Beto gaffe prone

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Lol it's 14  mnths til the Election

Hence why I said way too early to be opening the the celebratory round of drinks.

do you guys think Grassley is gonna win by 20 no, he ran against Judge in 2016/ he isn't gonna win that easy

Actually, I think Grassley will end up somewhere around 60% yes, maybe a hair under.

Iowa has been brutal for the Democrats ever since 2013, and it is a very nativist state too.

There have been times before when popular Representative runs for Senate and then gets destroyed, because once again, "Cyclical politics is a thing".

But as I said on another thread Rs think IA, MN, WI, OH are IN and MO

My name is not "Rs", my name is Yankee, North Carolina Yankee. 

To your point, IA is not MN or WI also. IA and OH are there own class between IN/MO and WI/MI/PA. I have never said otherwise and you would do well to NOT put words of other people into my mouth ever again.

Election Guy comes on every month and says Barnes is a weak candidate and Rs are a shoe in for WI and Tammy Baldwin WI by 10 pts

I like ElectionGuy just fine, but I am NC Yankee.

Lol WI voted for every D Prez except Kennedy

Meaningless historical anecdote 15151512521

Tammy Baldwin is way to the left of Barnes whom was Elected statewide as Lt Gov and Johnson is tied not leading in last poll, just because it's an internal Johnson is leading PLSE

What does this have to do with what we are talking about?
.

Tim Ryan is tied in a poll against Rs not down by 20, Vance and MANDEL aren't Rob Portman

"Portman is not Voinovich, there is no way he can win Ohio in Bush's recession. He was Bush's trade representative. He is going to get destroyed".

Again what does this have to do with Iowa.

TX is IN with Beto gaffe prone

What is this, what even is this?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol it's 14  mnths til the Election

Hence why I said way too early to be opening the the celebratory round of drinks.

do you guys think Grassley is gonna win by 20 no, he ran against Judge in 2016/ he isn't gonna win that easy

Actually, I think Grassley will end up somewhere around 60% yes, maybe a hair under.

Iowa has been brutal for the Democrats ever since 2013, and it is a very nativist state too.

There have been times before when popular Representative runs for Senate and then gets destroyed, because once again, "Cyclical politics is a thing".

But as I said on another thread Rs think IA, MN, WI, OH are IN and MO

My name is not "Rs", my name is Yankee, North Carolina Yankee.  

To your point, IA is not MN or WI also. IA and OH are there own class between IN/MO and WI/MI/PA. I have never said otherwise and you would do well to NOT put words of other people into my mouth ever again.

Election Guy comes on every month and says Barnes is a weak candidate and Rs are a shoe in for WI and Tammy Baldwin WI by 10 pts

I like ElectionGuy just fine, but I am NC Yankee.

Lol WI voted for every D Prez except Kennedy

Meaningless historical anecdote 15151512521

Tammy Baldwin is way to the left of Barnes whom was Elected statewide as Lt Gov and Johnson is tied not leading in last poll, just because it's an internal Johnson is leading PLSE

What does this have to do with what we are talking about?
.

Tim Ryan is tied in a poll against Rs not down by 20, Vance and MANDEL aren't Rob Portman

"Portman is not Voinovich, there is no way he can win Ohio in Bush's recession. He was Bush's trade representative. He is going to get destroyed".

Again what does this have to do with Iowa.

TX is IN with Beto gaffe prone

What is this, what even is this?

Grassley is not winning by 60% Finks not Patty Judge, Biden Approvals aren't gonna be 31% in 2022 COVID cases are leaving ,, Biden Approvals will go up


He beat Patty Judge in 2016 by 60% IA and OH weren't contested by Hillary she foregone IA and OH in lieu of FL with Murphy, she spent most of her time in FL



Biden only has to be at 50% or higher by Election to avoid Losing the H and it's 14 mnths

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Grassley is not winning by 60% Finks not Patty Judge,

Winning with at our just below 60% is not "winning by 60%". Winning by 60% means winning 80%-20%.

I have seen popular incumbent Representatives lose by that amount in Presidential years in a state voting for their own party by double digits.

Here we have a Representative who lost reelection and is now running against Senate institution in a state that is only getting more Republican and in a midterm of a President from her same party.

Yea 57% to 60% is a reasonable estimate for Grassley.

Biden Approvals aren't gonna be 31% in 2022 COVID cases are leaving ,, Biden Approvals will go up

Even if it goes up 10% from there, Iowa still going to be a disaster for the Democrats.

He beat Patty Judge in 2016 by 60% IA and OH weren't contested by Hillary she foregone IA and OH in lieu of FL with Murphy, she spent most of her time in FL

And you think that is enough to make a Democratic Administrations midterm better for the Democrats then 2016?

Biden only has to be at 50% or higher by Election to avoid Losing the H and it's 14 mnths

Biden at 50% nationally implies 42% or so in Iowa (actually it is worse than that considering Trump lost the PV by four, so 38%). If Grassley wins 58-42% that counts as just a hair under 60% as I said above. I also think Grassley will still have some residual crossover, even if minuscule compared to the past.

[S019]

Do yourselves a favor and don't entertain olawakandi, he's a troll who will probably get bored if you just let him scream into the air.

[Devils30]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h4zvi2yb6c/econTabReport.pdf

D+4 on the generic ballot. Not really seeing much crossover from 2020 Biden or 2020 Trump voters here despite Biden's mediocre approval

[MT Treasurer]

Very hard to square a D+4 GCB / Biden -3 approval with a Biden -31 approval rating in IA (from a far more reliable pollster), even if we assume that there’s a large cohort of D-leaning voters who disapprove of Biden but won’t vote R like in 2014. This is going to be another "pick out and believe in the numbers/polls you want" election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very hard to square a D+4 GCB / Biden -3 approval with a Biden -31 approval rating in IA (from a far more reliable pollster), even if we assume that there’s a large cohort of D-leaning voters who disapprove of Biden but won’t vote R like in 2014. This is going to be another "pick out and believe in the numbers/polls you want" election.

.
Grassley isn't winning by 20 pts, 10 yeah but not 20

[MT Treasurer]

Initial DSCC target list:

The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

[S019]

Initial DSCC target list:

The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

Drop Ohio and this a fine list, Democrats should not spend a cent in Ohio. If the DSCC spends in Iowa, they are officially the most stupid campaign organization in existence.

[wbrocks67]

Very hard to square a D+4 GCB / Biden -3 approval with a Biden -31 approval rating in IA (from a far more reliable pollster), even if we assume that there’s a large cohort of D-leaning voters who disapprove of Biden but won’t vote R like in 2014. This is going to be another "pick out and believe in the numbers/polls you want" election.

You're absolutely correct, but I also think - as we've spoken a bit about - that Biden's approval should be taken a bit differently than Trumps. Trump had a die hard base who would approve no matter what, and then he had everyone else who disapproved. So that battle lines were drawn and more clear.

Bidens approval is a bit more murky IMO - because I think you have more Ds or D-leaning folks who may 'disapprove' for whatever reason but are still never going to vote R. I think D/D-leaning are more open to admitting they disapprove (but still vote D) versus most Republicans are going to support Trump absolutely no matter what.

So essentially, even if Biden has a -30 in Iowa, he could still have many of those folks who still would lean D instead of R if forced to choose in an election.

But I also do think that the IA poll is just really severe. -30 is a clear outlier even for IA

[Young Conservative]

Very hard to square a D+4 GCB / Biden -3 approval with a Biden -31 approval rating in IA (from a far more reliable pollster), even if we assume that there’s a large cohort of D-leaning voters who disapprove of Biden but won’t vote R like in 2014. This is going to be another "pick out and believe in the numbers/polls you want" election.

You're absolutely correct, but I also think - as we've spoken a bit about - that Biden's approval should be taken a bit differently than Trumps. Trump had a die hard base who would approve no matter what, and then he had everyone else who disapproved. So that battle lines were drawn and more clear.

Bidens approval is a bit more murky IMO - because I think you have more Ds or D-leaning folks who may 'disapprove' for whatever reason but are still never going to vote R. I think D/D-leaning are more open to admitting they disapprove (but still vote D) versus most Republicans are going to support Trump absolutely no matter what.

So essentially, even if Biden has a -30 in Iowa, he could still have many of those folks who still would lean D instead of R if forced to choose in an election.

But I also do think that the IA poll is just really severe. -30 is a clear outlier even for IA

Cope.