2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ElectionsGuy]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Abortion went from 9% to 25% as far as most important issue. Amazing how wrong the punditry continues to be on this.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1522608091027623936

Liberals are so used to winning they can't understand this is exactly how conservatives felt through most of 2020 (but especially the summer). But nobody made that argument in favor of Republicans then.

Well to be fair , the summer of 2020 probably did reduce the size of the democratic win so I’m not sure if this a great point to make if we are talking about electoral impact

Everybody seems to think this now but I don't think that's actually accurate. Why is it that during the summer of 2020, Biden and Democrats had their largest polling leads, and Trump had his lowest approval? It's understandable to think this in retrospect to explain how badly wrong the expectations were. But at the time that defunding the police was becoming trendy, it wasn't exactly helping Republicans, and everybody here thought the general unease in the country would hurt Trump (it did) even if some of their antics backfired.

Btw, I'm not totally sold on the idea that it won't help Democrats at all. It will probably juice their turnout a bit. But it won't fix their core issues, which have to with Biden and the economy.

Liberals are so used to winning

HAHAHAHAHA, good one.

Well yeah, these last few months haven't exactly been great for the left. And that's why the reaction has been what it's been. When you're not used to losing, it hurts. From the end of the 2016 election all the way to late 2021, the left has broadly won the culture and the political battles, and ideologically captured nearly every institution in American life, with the only exception being the Supreme Court?

How much you want to bet, as soon as this decision actually comes down, if it even comes down the way everybody's assuming it will, that big corporations everywhere will put out statements condemning the court decision, claiming it's an attack on women's rights, and providing financial cover for abortion expenses? We still haven't found the leaker apparently, which speaks volumes.

The Democratic Party won some victories in 2018 and to an extent in 2020, though to say that the left is in control of any institution is to either greatly misunderstand what the left is, or move the goalposts very far to the right. Institutions are somewhat favorable to corporate Democrats (so long as they vow not to fundamentally change the status quo much), but are probably more hostile to the actual left than they are to Trump, with the 2016 and 2020 primaries being prime examples of this. And much of Biden's presidency has been anything but victorious for the left. He was already an enormous compromise for us, and even his watered down agenda has been all but derailed.

If the networks do this, it is for ratings, not because they truly "support" the left. They love a good conflict more than anything, and if Democrats were to, say, strengthen gun control, we'd never hear the end about how much they were tearing America apart and showing that they don't care about "real Americans."

As a left-winger, I am so unused to winning that it almost feels weird when my ideology actually scores something resembling a victory.

I actually agree. The populist/hard-left Bernie Sanders wing has been thoroughly defeated, even more so than either the establishment or Trump-aligned right. As a result, they're so insignificant as far as their political influence that I end up saying "the left" a lot referring to establishment Democrats and their allies, which is most of the Democratic Party, and nearly all of their institutional influences. You call them corporate Democrats, but that's what I'm referring to when I say the left, because like it or not they have been dominant with little dissent among their own ranks (in comparison to Republicans). The problem here is even progressives like Elizabeth Warren haven't differentiated themselves that much from this element. It's only the squad and the Sanders folks.

However, I don't buy at all that they're more hostile to Sanders than Trump. And I don't buy that harsher gun control would get negative coverage anywhere other than Fox News and the minority of right-leaning outlets. I watch MSNBC and CNN every once in a while. They are pure Democratic Party propaganda still pretending like they're objective news. You can tell every time they have to cover Biden's approval it's this attitude that people are too ungrateful to see how well Biden is doing.

[Devils30]

The sample is R+3 and 31% with college degree, very R friendly. That said, it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_051222/


The public remains divided on whether they prefer to have the Republicans (36%) or the Democrats (34%) in control of Congress. Pushing for “leaners” among those who initially say party control does not matter adds 12% to the GOP column and 10% for the Democrats. The combined 48% Republican and 44% Democrat split represents statistically insignificant shifts since March (45% Republican and 46% Democrat) and January (50% Republican and 43% Democrat).

Looks like R+4 not 7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Liberals are so used to winning

HAHAHAHAHA, good one.

Rs still not winning 54 S anyways there is adoption as I have said many times more people are adopting because of our busy lives irregardless of their maritalstatus it's a 303 map anyways

Actually after 40 it's very slim chance females get pregnant so more people adopt anyways because of menapause

Rs arent up 7 on GCB You Gov just had it 51/49

Emerson poll is just like Fox that had it 7 they do phone polls and not online polls dilute minority participation

I will only believe Rs plus 7 when they poll MI, PA and WI and Rs are losing 46(33 in NV and Hassan and Kelly are winning

Fox had it plus 7 a week ago it's the same as Fox 46/39%

[Devils30]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

Lol there is adoption now there is less of an appetite for abortion , it's very expensive to raise a toddler and newborm so people are becoming Foster parents it's much easier that way

Foster parents the state pays you, whereas adoption you pay for the kid all by yourself

People on this forum love to only think one thing pregnant and many users don't even have kids because they are young like Snowlabrador

[MT Treasurer]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

[Xing]

Monmouth has R+7

50
43

Abortion went from 9% to 25% as far as most important issue. Amazing how wrong the punditry continues to be on this.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1522608091027623936

Liberals are so used to winning they can't understand this is exactly how conservatives felt through most of 2020 (but especially the summer). But nobody made that argument in favor of Republicans then.

Well to be fair , the summer of 2020 probably did reduce the size of the democratic win so I’m not sure if this a great point to make if we are talking about electoral impact

Everybody seems to think this now but I don't think that's actually accurate. Why is it that during the summer of 2020, Biden and Democrats had their largest polling leads, and Trump had his lowest approval? It's understandable to think this in retrospect to explain how badly wrong the expectations were. But at the time that defunding the police was becoming trendy, it wasn't exactly helping Republicans, and everybody here thought the general unease in the country would hurt Trump (it did) even if some of their antics backfired.

Btw, I'm not totally sold on the idea that it won't help Democrats at all. It will probably juice their turnout a bit. But it won't fix their core issues, which have to with Biden and the economy.

Liberals are so used to winning

HAHAHAHAHA, good one.

Well yeah, these last few months haven't exactly been great for the left. And that's why the reaction has been what it's been. When you're not used to losing, it hurts. From the end of the 2016 election all the way to late 2021, the left has broadly won the culture and the political battles, and ideologically captured nearly every institution in American life, with the only exception being the Supreme Court?

How much you want to bet, as soon as this decision actually comes down, if it even comes down the way everybody's assuming it will, that big corporations everywhere will put out statements condemning the court decision, claiming it's an attack on women's rights, and providing financial cover for abortion expenses? We still haven't found the leaker apparently, which speaks volumes.

The Democratic Party won some victories in 2018 and to an extent in 2020, though to say that the left is in control of any institution is to either greatly misunderstand what the left is, or move the goalposts very far to the right. Institutions are somewhat favorable to corporate Democrats (so long as they vow not to fundamentally change the status quo much), but are probably more hostile to the actual left than they are to Trump, with the 2016 and 2020 primaries being prime examples of this. And much of Biden's presidency has been anything but victorious for the left. He was already an enormous compromise for us, and even his watered down agenda has been all but derailed.

If the networks do this, it is for ratings, not because they truly "support" the left. They love a good conflict more than anything, and if Democrats were to, say, strengthen gun control, we'd never hear the end about how much they were tearing America apart and showing that they don't care about "real Americans."

As a left-winger, I am so unused to winning that it almost feels weird when my ideology actually scores something resembling a victory.

I actually agree. The populist/hard-left Bernie Sanders wing has been thoroughly defeated, even more so than either the establishment or Trump-aligned right. As a result, they're so insignificant as far as their political influence that I end up saying "the left" a lot referring to establishment Democrats and their allies, which is most of the Democratic Party, and nearly all of their institutional influences. You call them corporate Democrats, but that's what I'm referring to when I say the left, because like it or not they have been dominant with little dissent among their own ranks (in comparison to Republicans). The problem here is even progressives like Elizabeth Warren haven't differentiated themselves that much from this element. It's only the squad and the Sanders folks.

However, I don't buy at all that they're more hostile to Sanders than Trump. And I don't buy that harsher gun control would get negative coverage anywhere other than Fox News and the minority of right-leaning outlets. I watch MSNBC and CNN every once in a while. They are pure Democratic Party propaganda still pretending like they're objective news. You can tell every time they have to cover Biden's approval it's this attitude that people are too ungrateful to see how well Biden is doing.

My point is that there is a decent portion of the population that is to the left of the Democratic establishment, and that to us, they are not significantly left-wing or sufficiently different from the Republican Party, and it's important to make that distinction, even if the divide isn't (yet) 50/50 among those who might be on the left half of the population in terms of ideology. I would agree that Warren and even Jayapal have not done enough to pull the party away from its current course, though they may simply realize how outnumbered they are in Congress.

I agree that MSNBC is basically in the bag for the Democratic establishment, though CNN seems much more concerned with just generating views. That's not me defending CNN, however, I think that they're a complete joke. Perhaps they're hostile to Trump, though I wouldn't say that they're particularly or consistently hostile to the Republican establishment, though. And the hostility to Trump is not coming from a desire to help Democrats. It's because they realize how much attention Trump generates, and thus pointing out how "controversial" or "unprecedented" he is happens to be a great way for them to get more views, and in turn, money.

Either way, the media and Twitter are not good gauges of how the left really feels. I'm one of many who are increasingly happy with the Democratic Party, and even many I know that initially supported Biden or preferred him to Sanders believe he's been a disappointment, and that his presidency has certainly not been a "win" for the left. And seeing Democrats who actively despise people like me described as left-wing or being put in the same ideological category as them is certainly not a good feeling, either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map Fox and Emerson do phone polls and You Gov does internet poll this is the same seven pt poll that Fox had 46/39%

We're gonna debate back and forth which poll is right until they give us a poll dump on all the polls especially MI, PA and Wi and they're not giving us any but we are ahead in NV, AZ, GA and ME that is good news for 303

We're in the process of voting now, we shouldn't preemptive strike voting

[Devils30]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

You gotta be kidding if you think some candidates that take Todd Akin level stances on abortion in statewides races in PA, MI, NV won't cost the GOP some seats. I said GOP is going to take the House minus something completely unforeseen. But laws that have the support of 27% of the country will hurt the party enacting them, not unlike the way the far left activists nearly poisoned Dems into losing both the presidency and the House in 2020.

And yes candidate quality matters, Mastriano is not Glenn Youngkin. As far as state laws go, don't rule out something completely ridiculous coming after the decision is handed down. Roe being overturned is different than previous years because it was always just a hypothetical.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Joni Ernst and Elise Stefanik literally make the dumbest endorsements ever. They have no ideological consistency whatsoever, they just endorse whoever the female is.

[UncleSam]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

You gotta be kidding if you think some candidates that take Todd Akin level stances on abortion in statewides races in PA, MI, NV won't cost the GOP some seats. I said GOP is going to take the House minus something completely unforeseen. But laws that have the support of 27% of the country will
hurt the party enacting them, not unlike the way the far left activists nearly poisoned Dems into losing both the presidency and the House in 2020.

And yes candidate quality matters, Mastriano is not Glenn Youngkin. As far as state laws go, don't rule out something completely ridiculous coming after the decision is handed down. Roe being overturned is different than previous years because it was always just a hypothetical.

The problem is that 95% of R candidates who have yet to be elected are declared ‘weak’ by democratic posters on this board. Glenn Youngkin being a recent example. I remember the day after he won the primary everyone talking about how his nomination clinched the win for McAullife. It’s hard to take candidate quality takes seriously after that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Monmouth R plus 7 ok GCB Beasley is tied with Budd, I knew NC will always be a Battlegroundd state because Trump only won it by 1.5

What's to say about OH, the rating has it Strong R and if we are tied in NC, OH isn't safe R, with Tim Ryan

[Unelectable Bystander]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

You gotta be kidding if you think some candidates that take Todd Akin level stances on abortion in statewides races in PA, MI, NV won't cost the GOP some seats. I said GOP is going to take the House minus something completely unforeseen. But laws that have the support of 27% of the country will
hurt the party enacting them, not unlike the way the far left activists nearly poisoned Dems into losing both the presidency and the House in 2020.

And yes candidate quality matters, Mastriano is not Glenn Youngkin. As far as state laws go, don't rule out something completely ridiculous coming after the decision is handed down. Roe being overturned is different than previous years because it was always just a hypothetical.

The problem is that 95% of R candidates who have yet to be elected are declared ‘weak’ by democratic posters on this board. Glenn Youngkin being a recent example. I remember the day after he won the primary everyone talking about how his nomination clinched the win for McAullife. It’s hard to take candidate quality takes seriously after that.

Exactly. It made me laugh a bit that Youngkin is now the epitome of good R candidate (it’s probably true), because not only did people on here think that he was no better than a generic R but most actually thought he was an awful candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

You gotta be kidding if you think some candidates that take Todd Akin level stances on abortion in statewides races in PA, MI, NV won't cost the GOP some seats. I said GOP is going to take the House minus something completely unforeseen. But laws that have the support of 27% of the country will
hurt the party enacting them, not unlike the way the far left activists nearly poisoned Dems into losing both the presidency and the House in 2020.

And yes candidate quality matters, Mastriano is not Glenn Youngkin. As far as state laws go, don't rule out something completely ridiculous coming after the decision is handed down. Roe being overturned is different than previous years because it was always just a hypothetical.

The problem is that 95% of R candidates who have yet to be elected are declared ‘weak’ by democratic posters on this board. Glenn Youngkin being a recent example. I remember the day after he won the primary everyone talking about how his nomination clinched the win for McAullife. It’s hard to take candidate quality takes seriously after that.

Exactly. It made me laugh a bit that Youngkin is now the epitome of good R candidate (it’s probably true), because not only did people on here think that he was no better than a generic R but most actually thought he was an awful candidate

Rs always want to talk about how Ds narrowly lost VA by just two pts but we won the Cali recall and we won NJ


All Elder needed was to hold Newsom to 50% and he not NEWSOM would be Governor and Elder couldn't do that

[Politician]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

You gotta be kidding if you think some candidates that take Todd Akin level stances on abortion in statewides races in PA, MI, NV won't cost the GOP some seats. I said GOP is going to take the House minus something completely unforeseen. But laws that have the support of 27% of the country will
hurt the party enacting them, not unlike the way the far left activists nearly poisoned Dems into losing both the presidency and the House in 2020.

And yes candidate quality matters, Mastriano is not Glenn Youngkin. As far as state laws go, don't rule out something completely ridiculous coming after the decision is handed down. Roe being overturned is different than previous years because it was always just a hypothetical.

The problem is that 95% of R candidates who have yet to be elected are declared ‘weak’ by democratic posters on this board. Glenn Youngkin being a recent example. I remember the day after he won the primary everyone talking about how his nomination clinched the win for McAullife. It’s hard to take candidate quality takes seriously after that.

Exactly. It made me laugh a bit that Youngkin is now the epitome of good R candidate (it’s probably true), because not only did people on here think that he was no better than a generic R but most actually thought he was an awful candidate

Rs always want to talk about how Ds narrowly lost VA by just two pts but we won the Cali recall and we won NJ


All Elder needed was to hold Newsom to 50% and he not NEWSOM would be Governor and Elder couldn't do that

We've gotten to the point where Atlas Democrats are bragging about wins in CA and NJ (the latter of which was significantly closer than expected). Sad!

[wbrocks67]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

[Devils30]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

[Unelectable Bystander]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Great poll for R’s, NBC is extremely D biased

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NBC is not biased no news is biased and it's still an Endemic going on

[Devils30]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

[UncleSam]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

Lol D+2 in the senate and R+12 in the house is very optimistic for Ds. That’s basically an R+1-2 vote.

[Person Man]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

Lol D+2 in the senate and R+12 in the house is very optimistic for Ds. That’s basically an R+1-2 vote.

I agree, I think the Roe mess probably turned a R+7 election into an R+3-4 one. With redistricting, Democrats might have a chance to take the House back if they win the White House.

[MT Treasurer]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

Lol D+2 in the senate and R+12 in the house is very optimistic for Ds. That’s basically an R+1-2 vote.

Yes, but you see, he thinks "all of the GOP Senate candidates [will] flame out due to abortion stances", i.e. Republicans will lose all of WI, PA, NV, AZ, GA, NH due to candidate quality and ideological extremism even in a Generic R+5 environment. Every single one of those Republican candidates will 'implode.'

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1526155757078474753?t=YLM9h_oMn0yIORJuI2GVrQ&...