2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

Keep in mind - there will also be less competitive districts next year.

Nothing short of Biden +12 is going blue in 2022. Hence why I think CO-SEN is a tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hot take: It will be a bigger red wave than 2010.

Keep in mind - there will also be less competitive districts next year.

Nothing short of Biden +12 is going blue in 2022. Hence why I think CO-SEN is a tossup.

Yeah right, Bennet is leading by 12

[wbrocks67]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

[kwabbit]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

CNN should get a new pollster. C-rated and it doesn't seem like there going to be more accurate in 2022 if they're showing D+5. Although CGB polling is imperfect by definition.

[wbrocks67]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

[kwabbit]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

🤔🤔🤔🤔The election is not last Tuesday it's Nov 2022, how many times do D's have to tell Rs this

Just like Trump leads Biden the Election is 1000 days and wait til media start scrutiny of Trump again

Polls don't mean much until Aug 2022, not Dec 2021

[Person Man]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

If we went by the results in 2009, they had an R+20 at this point.

[kwabbit]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

If we went by the results in 2009, they had an R+20 at this point.

Virginia Gov indicated R+16, NJ indicated R+11, if you go strictly by PVI. State races weren't as nationalized then. I imagine if Deeds brought in the entirety of the Democratic party, maybe he would've lost by 11 instead of 17.

The fact that the main races of Tuesday had congruent results, along with the multitude of downballot races across the nation that went hard for Republicans, would suggest at least R+5. The gubernatorial elections themselves imply R+8, so I am discounting the result to an extent.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't see Democrats losing Nevada or Colorado. Even in the 2010 Wave they managed to hold those States.

NV 2008: D+12.5
NV 2020: D+2.5

Definitely unwinnable even in a GOP wave.

[wbrocks67]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

You're extrapolating everything from VA and NJ when you shouldn't, though. Results in PA and GA were very different (also NJ has other circumstances in terms of history that didn't bode well for Dems to begin with)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see Democrats losing Nevada or Colorado. Even in the 2010 Wave they managed to hold those States.

NV 2008: D+12.5
NV 2020: D+2.5

Definitely unwinnable even in a GOP wave.

.


We're not gonna in nje if it's a save until next yr Aug b not this yeat Rs need to stop measuring the drapes Trp lost badly in 2018/ due to Ukraine and Impeachment, Rs only won, one blue state in an R wave in 2014 CO and Unemployment was 11% in 2010 R wave, totally different dynamics in each midterm

[OSR stands with Israel]

GG 70-80 seats
https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1457412028872761349?s=20

I just find it amazing how the Democrats are always elected to clean up the messes left by Republicans, but then the voters decide to hand power back to the Republicans because they don't think the Democrats are cleaning up fast enough.

Thats why you guys lose as you always think the voters are electing you guys to "fix the mess" of the previous administration. In 1992 Bill Clinton ran as a conservative Democrat who wasn't like the Tax and Spend Democrats of old and when he governed as a liberal , the public responded by saying that is not what we elected and decided to elect Republicans to the House for the first time in 40 years.


2008 yes I agree you guys were elected to fix a mess but you guys did completely squander it by spending 9 months trying to pass healthcare reform instead of pass more jobs bills.


In 2020, you guys only won cause people wanted a return to normalcy and a steady hand to deal with the pandemic. You guys were not elected to make fundamental changes to the economy or society and the fact is voters who prioritized those issues actually prefered Trump to Biden.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1457419368120430603?s=20

1. The 2020 house map is not the same house map as 2022

2. Not using a different shade of color to indicate the gains makes this map incredibly hard to read

[wbrocks67]

GG 70-80 seats
https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1457412028872761349?s=20

I just find it amazing how the Democrats are always elected to clean up the messes left by Republicans, but then the voters decide to hand power back to the Republicans because they don't think the Democrats are cleaning up fast enough.

Thats why you guys lose as you always think the voters are electing you guys to "fix the mess" of the previous administration. In 1992 Bill Clinton ran as a conservative Democrat who wasn't like the Tax and Spend Democrats of old and when he governed as a liberal , the public responded by saying that is not what we elected and decided to elect Republicans to the House for the first time in 40 years.


2008 yes I agree you guys were elected to fix a mess but you guys did completely squander it by spending 9 months trying to pass healthcare reform instead of pass more jobs bills.


In 2020, you guys only won cause people wanted a return to normalcy and a steady hand to deal with the pandemic. You guys were not elected to make fundamental changes to the economy or society and the fact is voters who prioritized those issues actually prefered Trump to Biden.

Says who? People need to stop using this talking point and stop talking for 81 million voters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

GG 70-80 seats
https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1457412028872761349?s=20

I just find it amazing how the Democrats are always elected to clean up the messes left by Republicans, but then the voters decide to hand power back to the Republicans because they don't think the Democrats are cleaning up fast enough.

Thats why you guys lose as you always think the voters are electing you guys to "fix the mess" of the previous administration. In 1992 Bill Clinton ran as a conservative Democrat who wasn't like the Tax and Spend Democrats of old and when he governed as a liberal , the public responded by saying that is not what we elected and decided to elect Republicans to the House for the first time in 40 years.


2008 yes I agree you guys were elected to fix a mess but you guys did completely squander it by spending 9 months trying to pass healthcare reform instead of pass more jobs bills.


In 2020, you guys only won cause people wanted a return to normalcy and a steady hand to deal with the pandemic. You guys were not elected to make fundamental changes to the economy or society and the fact is voters who prioritized those issues actually prefered Trump to Biden.

Says who? People need to stop using this talking point and stop talking for 81 million voters.

Exit polls

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1457819657344225281?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

Nov 2020
CNN D +12, so there is a 7 point change since 2020 per CNN.
Suffolk D+10. so there is a 16 point change since 2020 per Suffolk.

If you average it, (16+7)/2 = 11.5 swing since Nov 2020 

[wbrocks67]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

Nov 2020
CNN D +12, so there is a 7 point change since 2020 per CNN.
Suffolk D+10. so there is a 16 point change since 2020 per Suffolk.

If you average it, (16+7)/2 = 11.5 swing since Nov 2020 

LMAO, so what you're saying though is that both of these pollsters were wildly off so neither of their latest polls should be taken seriously. Fine by me

[lfromnj]

https://www.carolinajournal.com/news-article/senate-candidate-walker-fielding-calls-about-returning-to-u-s-house/

Mark Walker return to the house?

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/jessievargas_/status/1457773336314867718?t=4T4mXq9gTTPZ5pb82...
Former boxing world Champion Jesse Vargas is running in NV-04 as a Republican

[wbrocks67]

This is a great ad, but isn't SC-01 only becoming more red in redistricting?

https://twitter.com/RyanThompsonSC/status/1457858764669849602

[ElectionsGuy]

The state of polling in 2021

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, whatever that means...

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1458077857683591175