2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isn't that big of a deal it's replicating what we did already in 2018/2020 the 303 blue wall it's a neutral cycle but of course I have my fingers crossed for OH and NC and UT Sen Ds outvote Rs 65/60M anyways

2024 is the same and we have FL, TX, MT, OH and WVA Sen races AZ Tossups

Beto and DEMINGS may run for TX and FL Sen in 24, Castro bros aren't running for S if we lose the H in 22 they are gonna try to win it back in 24

Abbott and  Rubio are gonna crush DEMINGS and Beto 55/45

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just noticed this, Politico moved OH-01 to Leans Democratic yesterday 👀

https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/ohio/house/district-01/

It's not an unreasonable rating. The party that gets drubbed in the midterms does usually get a few pickups. OH-01 is probably at the top of the list.

[TwinGeeks99]

Just noticed this, Politico moved OH-01 to Leans Democratic yesterday 👀

https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/ohio/house/district-01/

It's not an unreasonable rating. The party that gets drubbed in the midterms does usually get a few pickups. OH-01 is probably at the top of the list.

My theory is that since they have to redraw Ohio's maps in 2024 no matter what, the fate of OH-01 will depend on the outcome of this election. If Chabot holds on, they'll try to shore him up as much as possible, but if he loses, they'll finally draw a Hamilton-only district, effectively ceding the district to Landsman.

[Green Line]

Just noticed this, Politico moved OH-01 to Leans Democratic yesterday 👀

https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/ohio/house/district-01/

It's not an unreasonable rating. The party that gets drubbed in the midterms does usually get a few pickups. OH-01 is probably at the top of the list.

My theory is that since they have to redraw Ohio's maps in 2024 no matter what, the fate of OH-01 will depend on the outcome of this election. If Chabot holds on, they'll try to shore him up as much as possible, but if he loses, they'll finally draw a Hamilton-only district, effectively ceding the district to Landsman.

Whats the point in doing that when the current seat isn't endangering any of the surrounding ones.  There is no benefit to sinking it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just noticed this, Politico moved OH-01 to Leans Democratic yesterday 👀

https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/ohio/house/district-01/

It's not an unreasonable rating. The party that gets drubbed in the midterms does usually get a few pickups. OH-01 is probably at the top of the list.

My theory is that since they have to redraw Ohio's maps in 2024 no matter what, the fate of OH-01 will depend on the outcome of this election. If Chabot holds on, they'll try to shore him up as much as possible, but if he loses, they'll finally draw a Hamilton-only district, effectively ceding the district to Landsman.

Whats the point in doing that when the current seat isn't endangering any of the surrounding ones.  There is no benefit to sinking it.

Well I mean the current Config is Biden + 8.5 so in a normal year, Republicans would probably be losing it. Legally, Cinci has to be kept whole so at best for Rs they'll be one swingy Cinci seat (that probably narrowly went to Biden) and then another more solid seat. We have seen both sides not aggressively crack out Dem incumbents they theoretically could such as MO-05 or IN-01, and infact in the case of MO-05 basically ceded the bluest possible config to Dems.

There's a good chance a more formal redistricting commission will be passed in OH this decade, perhaps as early as 2024, and the commission would likely draw an OH-01 nested entirely within Hamilton County.

[TwinGeeks99]

Just noticed this, Politico moved OH-01 to Leans Democratic yesterday 👀

https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/ohio/house/district-01/

It's not an unreasonable rating. The party that gets drubbed in the midterms does usually get a few pickups. OH-01 is probably at the top of the list.

My theory is that since they have to redraw Ohio's maps in 2024 no matter what, the fate of OH-01 will depend on the outcome of this election. If Chabot holds on, they'll try to shore him up as much as possible, but if he loses, they'll finally draw a Hamilton-only district, effectively ceding the district to Landsman.

Whats the point in doing that when the current seat isn't endangering any of the surrounding ones.  There is no benefit to sinking it.

Well I mean the current Config is Biden + 8.5 so in a normal year, Republicans would probably be losing it. Legally, Cinci has to be kept whole so at best for Rs they'll be one swingy Cinci seat (that probably narrowly went to Biden) and then another more solid seat. We have seen both sides not aggressively crack out Dem incumbents they theoretically could such as MO-05 or IN-01, and infact in the case of MO-05 basically ceded the bluest possible config to Dems.

There's a good chance a more formal redistricting commission will be passed in OH this decade, perhaps as early as 2024, and the commission would likely draw an OH-01 nested entirely within Hamilton County.

While I agree with your points, there is the theory that IN-01 was a calculated gamble. They probably looked at the trends in that district and figured they don't need to gerrymander it to win the district in the future.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The CCES is a 50,000+ person national stratified sample survey administered by YouGov. Half of the questionnaire consists of Common Content asked of all 50,000+ people, and half of the questionnaire consists of Team Content designed by each individual participating team and asked of a subset of 1,000 people. In addition, several teams may pool their resources to create Group Content.

The survey consists of two waves in election years. In the pre-election wave, respondents answer two-thirds of the questionnaire. This segment of the survey asks about general political attitudes, various demographic factors, assessment of roll call voting choices, political information, and vote intentions. The pre-election wave is in the field from late September to late October. In the post-election wave, respondents answer the other third of the questionnaire, mostly consisting of items related to the election that just occurred. The post-election wave is administered in November.

In non-election years, the survey consists of a single wave conducted in the fall.

https://cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/CumulativeHouseVote/

https://cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/HouseVote2022/


Now the toplines, D+2 aren't incredibly interesting, especially since data was covered over a one-month period across October 2022. What is more fascinating is the vast amount of crosstabs and the potential national trends it shows across age, gender, race, religion etc.


Note: All margins below refer to the two-party vote share

Below is probably the most interesting crosstab, as while across most groups (gender, religion, college education) polarization remained the same, here it didn't. This suggests a large swing away from the Democrats by both College-educated and Non-College Educated Hispanic Americans, while College-Educated White voters modestly swing towards the Democratic Party and Non-College White voters have a rather substantial swing towards them.

Image Link

This is a swing of R+22 among Hispanic College-Educated voters
And a swing of R+15 among Hispanic Non College-Educated voters

Almost completely erasing educational polarization within the group

College-Educated White voters are also now more likely to vote for the Democratic Party (by a margin of D+16) than Hispanic voters (at D+15).

Asian voters see a modest swing to the Democratic Party from D+40 to D+41 while Black voters see a moderate swing to the Republican Party from D+82 to D+78.

The Democratic Party also does slightly worse in suburban areas and somewhat better in rural areas, mainly because of a D+7 swing among rural women and an R+3 swing among suburban men.

I'm not sure why this poll doesn't merit it's own thread in the polling forum given that it is a poll of named candidates and not a generic ballot poll.

In any case, racial breakdown graph over time is a good inclusion.  The decline in Latino support for Democrats is really stunning, and needs to force a re-examination of the party's strategies and priorities. E.g. Why are there no prominent Latinos among the national leaders of the Democratic party???

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272?t=J9Wz9Bfa732UFxcf6...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

Bennet and Murray have had bigger leads in more polls than Rubio, Budd, and Vance, yet WA and CO are tossups and theirs' aren't. Ridiculous.

That's their map thos is my map




52/48 D Senators

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272?t=J9Wz9Bfa732UFxcf6...

It’s not like they can’t just cook up numbers, even if people were becoming Republican in droves.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272?t=J9Wz9Bfa732UFxcf6...

This critique makes so sense to me. It’s like if you were to complain that the right wing media is symatically dishonest, and I were to reply “Well, the left wing media could always just lie more to make up for it”.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272?t=J9Wz9Bfa732UFxcf6...

Question I have about this: hasn't there also been a dearth of R internal polling (except perhaps from the Walker campaign) and nonpartisan polling? What's the incentive structure there? If you're an R, wouldn't you want to be releasing all the absurd leads you're finding in your polls? If you're a nonpartisan pollster finding R leads, why wouldn't you release them?

[Lief 🗽]

Seltzer’s GB numbers look good, Democrats would absolutely take that. Would suggest a D+0 year nationally (maybe R+1 if you assume Midwest will trend left this year because of Dobbs/Dem weakness with non whites).

[Alben Barkley]

Seltzer’s GB numbers look good, Democrats would absolutely take that. Would suggest a D+0 year nationally (maybe R+1 if you assume Midwest will trend left this year because of Dobbs/Dem weakness with non whites).

So basically, a neutral year, which still probably favors Rs due to their advantages in the Senate (all of NV, GA, PA, and AZ are to the right of the nation). But we could still squeak it out or at least limit their gains. The House of course is long gone.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272?t=J9Wz9Bfa732UFxcf6...

This critique makes so sense to me. It’s like if you were to complain that the right wing media is symatically dishonest, and I were to reply “Well, the left wing media could always just lie more to make up for it”.

Rather than making stuff up, I think he's saying if the Dems had good internals, they could release them, but the fact that they aren't suggests that they don't have them.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272?t=J9Wz9Bfa732UFxcf6...

This critique makes so sense to me. It’s like if you were to complain that the right wing media is symatically dishonest, and I were to reply “Well, the left wing media could always just lie more to make up for it”.

Rather than making stuff up, I think he's saying if the Dems had good internals, they could release them, but the fact that they aren't suggests that they don't have them.

We’re not seeing a lot of real internals from experienced, professional polling firms on either side.  We’re getting fake polls from grifters on the right.  The equivalent scam industry just doesn’t exist to anywhere near the same degree on the left.

Edit: I do wonder why we haven’t seen anything from Center Street recently.

[Adam Griffin]

ABC/Washington Post GCB Poll

Likely Voters
Republicans 50%, Democrats 48%

Registered Voters
Republicans 49%, Democrats 48%

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Only 13% of their sample said they had already voted, compared to the period of the survey (Oct 30 - Nov 2) where 20% or more of all voters in this election would have already cast their ballots. Obvious implications for toplines are obvious.

[Devils30]

ABC/Washington Post GCB Poll

Likely Voters
Republicans 50%, Democrats 48%

Registered Voters
Republicans 49%, Democrats 48%

This is hardly a red wave if realized, Rs probably are capped around +15 House seats under this.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What's this about Dems not releasing their trash internals? Didn't we get a Kelly +20 and a Ryan +13 from Center Street?

[Person Man]

ABC/Washington Post GCB Poll

Likely Voters
Republicans 50%, Democrats 48%

Registered Voters
Republicans 49%, Democrats 48%

This is hardly a red wave if realized, Rs probably are capped around +15 House seats under this.

According to mainstream forecasts, 207-228 sounds about right, to RCP, probably closer to 238-197. Next time, Democrats might be able to pull a Truman if they win. At least in the House.

[wbrocks67]

Final NBC poll also shows about a tied race. ABC/Wapo gives Rs an extra pt in LV, while NBC gives Dems an extra pt in LV.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1589256512941486086

[Comrade Funk]

Basically we know nothing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good CGB benefits Ds yeah right ECOM benefits Rs and there are 50M impoverished and 700K homeless people

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Basically we know nothing.

Don’t we know a lot?  Seems like all the high quality polls are converging (herding?) on a basically tied race.