2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[RI]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1583398910432641025?t=0scZsLwL0gio1tg6...

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1583408843429511169

[wbrocks67]

The only reason the Emerson poll really moved:

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1583406825663533056

[wbrocks67]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Yep, Democrats are doing what they do best, choking at just the wrong time. Leadership needs a full cleaning out after this election.

This kind of stuff makes no sense. Democrats are focusing on the same thing now that they were in September, and the same thing that they were focusing in on August.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Yep, Democrats are doing what they do best, choking at just the wrong time. Leadership needs a full cleaning out after this election.

This kind of stuff makes no sense. Democrats are focusing on the same thing now that they were in September, and the same thing that they were focusing in on August.

Perhaps, but the "undecided" voters weren't actually undecided. Dobbs resulted in an increase in "shy" voters (i.e. those who wouldn't tell pollsters they were voting Republican.) But now that Dobbs is no longer in the news as much (even if it's having a devastating impact still), these people feel comfortable admitting that they're bigots. That's what is happening here.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Same. Pretty clear it’s over.

Polling is always wrong against the GOP. So showing a lead of that size shows a clear red wave

Polling was horrifically wrong in Kansas and NY-19.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like one person in this thread is really trying to nitpick all of the recent polls showing Republicans gaining. Are we seriously still in a neutral environment? The polls would have to be biased in favor of the Republicans for that to be the case, and that would be a complete reversal of the pattern in recent years.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, it looks like undecided GOP voters come home while Dems with the Dark Brandon meme and fallout from Dobbs peaked too early.

[2016]

It seems like one person in this thread is really trying to nitpick all of the recent polls showing Republicans gaining. Are we seriously still in a neutral environment? The polls would have to be biased in favor of the Republicans for that to be the case, and that would be a complete reversal of the pattern in recent years.

We have seen a bunch of Polls all moving simultanously going into the Republicans Direction.

Abbott up 11 Points gave me some pause this morning as this was a 5-8 Point Race a couple of weeks ago. Abbott could now very well win by 15+ Points. He is at 53 % too.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It seems like one person in this thread is really trying to nitpick all of the recent polls showing Republicans gaining. Are we seriously still in a neutral environment? The polls would have to be biased in favor of the Republicans for that to be the case, and that would be a complete reversal of the pattern in recent years.

Whether it be RV or LV, one clear direction in the last week.

[2016]

And one more thing I want to mention:
A lot of Atlas/Talk Elections Democrats I think owe me an apology. I said MONTHS AGO that Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents will eventually come HOME and I was laughed at.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like one person in this thread is really trying to nitpick all of the recent polls showing Republicans gaining. Are we seriously still in a neutral environment? The polls would have to be biased in favor of the Republicans for that to be the case, and that would be a complete reversal of the pattern in recent years.

Whether it be RV or LV, one clear direction in the last week.

I'm not the one doubting the trend. It's obvious and it's there. I'm saying there is one person in this thread who is doubting the trend, and you probably know who it is.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not doubting anything, I'm just saying polls are currently all over the place.

Best to go by the 538 average, which is about R+0.3 right now. I'm not saying that's not believable.

However, there's a certain group of people in this thread who want to go wild every time there's an R+6 poll or something.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm not doubting anything, I'm just saying polls are currently all over the place.

Best to go by the 538 average, which is about R+0.3 right now. I'm not saying that's not believable.

However, there's a certain group of people in this thread who want to go wild every time there's an R+6 poll or something.

The 538 average is R+ 0.3 due to the fact they include literal polls of adults such as Ipsos with about 30% undecided, which slants the average.

[BenjiG98]

Good poll comes out: "This is bad. We're going to get thrashed. See? I told you!"

Bad poll comes out: "This is bad. We're going to get thrashed. See? I told you!"

[wbrocks67]

I'm not doubting anything, I'm just saying polls are currently all over the place.

Best to go by the 538 average, which is about R+0.3 right now. I'm not saying that's not believable.

However, there's a certain group of people in this thread who want to go wild every time there's an R+6 poll or something.

The 538 average is R+ 0.3 due to the fact they include literal polls of adults such as Ipsos, which slants the average.

At least they take *all* polls in. RCP clearly slants the average, and that's why it's R+3 in their average.

[wbrocks67]

Good poll comes out: "This is bad. We're going to get thrashed. See? I told you!"

Bad poll comes out: "This is bad. We're going to get thrashed. See? I told you!"

It's more like "good poll comes out for Ds ---> there's no way! has to be wrong. polling is dead." but when a good poll for Rs comes out, it's "polling is always correct! confirms my priors, so must be right!"

[wbrocks67]

Anyway, back to the data. Pew has a few more results since their topline (41-40) isn't very helpful

All RVs: D+1 (41-40)

Are extremely motivated to vote: R+1 (47-46)

Voted in 2020 election: R+3 (44-41)
Voted in 2020, not 2018: R+14 (44-30)
Voted in 2020 and 2018: tied (44-44)
Did not vote in 2020: D+1 (32-31)

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/10/20/the-midterm-elections-and-views-of-biden/

[Devils30]

This is both 1) looking bleak for Dems and 2) a lot of very low quality polling all over the place- I don't know if Emerson's methodology has ever been sound even when they've been right.

Dems only hope at this stage is the falling gas prices expected over the next 2 weeks and their ad advantage on TV from pre booked reservations for final days of the campaign. They need it to be like the 2000 election where Gore had a great September, Bush surged and pulled away in October only to slip in the final week and make it a virtual tie.

I am curious who the remaining undecideds are at this stage. Dems haven't lost much in the averages but GOP leaners have come home. Oddly it seems like Dems have slipped the most with college whites the past few weeks, will be interesting to see if they can recover the D+10-15 margins here.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'm not doubting anything, I'm just saying polls are currently all over the place.

Best to go by the 538 average, which is about R+0.3 right now. I'm not saying that's not believable.

However, there's a certain group of people in this thread who want to go wild every time there's an R+6 poll or something.

The 538 average is R+ 0.3 due to the fact they include literal polls of adults such as Ipsos, which slants the average.

At least they take *all* polls in. RCP clearly slants the average, and that's why it's R+3 in their average.

Taking all polls in, particularly in regards to generic ballot, with three weeks to the election doesn't give you an accurate picture of the environment.

It's why the averages consistently have huge misses.. when you give the same weighting to polls of adults with huge percentage of undecideds over LV and to a lesser extent RV.

[bilaps]

What's an actual worth of poll that has 41-40 two weeks from election day? It's pure comedy to include something like that in any average.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not doubting anything, I'm just saying polls are currently all over the place.

Best to go by the 538 average, which is about R+0.3 right now. I'm not saying that's not believable.

However, there's a certain group of people in this thread who want to go wild every time there's an R+6 poll or something.

The 538 average is R+ 0.3 due to the fact they include literal polls of adults such as Ipsos, which slants the average.

At least they take *all* polls in. RCP clearly slants the average, and that's why it's R+3 in their average.

Taking all polls in, particularly in regards to generic ballot, with three weeks to the election doesn't give you an accurate picture of the environment.

It's why the averages consistently have huge misses.. when you give the same weighting to polls of adults with huge percentage of undecideds over LV and to a lesser extent RV.

It did in 2018

And there's no reason to give LV any more precedent over RV, especially when LV models can be very funky.

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

[wbrocks67]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

I mean, objectively speaking, this makes a lot of sense. You have a lot of different polls saying a lot of different things.

There's a universe where Susan Wild and Angie Craig are winning their races, and there's a universe where Sanford Bishop is nearly losing.

[soundchaser]

Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

The one thing that's clear is that everything's unclear.

[Vespucci]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1583473807045496832

This is actually a 3-point shift to Dems from the last Rasmussen poll.