2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some think we are gonna lose Sir Woodbury 245 seats that ship has sailed it's gonna be a 53/47 Sen WI, PA and OH in 2010 we lost the H and secured 53/47 NC, FL, IA, IN are purely wave insurance

I thought McMillan was gonna win but lol that's UT there are competeting polls in WI and OH showing Johnson and Vance AHEAD and Barnes and Ryan ahead while Kelly and Fetterman remain fav

That's why we need OH in case WARNOCK goes to a Runoff

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Some think we are gonna lose Sir Woodbury 245 seats that ship has sailed it's gonna be a 53/47 Sen WI, PA and OH in 2010 we lost the H and secured 53/47 NC, FL, IA, IN are purely wave insurance

I thought McMillan was gonna win but lol that's UT there are competeting polls in WI and OH showing Johnson and Vance AHEAD and Barnes and Ryan ahead while Kelly and Fetterman remain fav

That's why we need OH in case WARNOCK goes to a Runoff

Oh I can't wait to hear the explanation of this one

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the GOP always has the edge on the economy, I think because there's also just this societal ~feeling~ that "the republicans are the party of the economy" or when people think of "fiscally conservative" they attribute to Republicans (obviously not the current GOP party though), but it's stuck.

There was a tweet I'll have to find but basically said that in essentially every election year in the 2010's, or at least the latter half of the decade at least, the GOP always has the advantage on the economy, usually at over 10% over Dems. They even had it though in 2018, so a lot of times it's just baked in at this point.

[Ferguson97]

Republicans have the edge on the economy because a) inflation is 8% with a Democrat in the White House and b) they usually have a slight edge, it's one of the issues that "belongs" to them, like how Republicans are never going to surpass Democrats on healthcare or civil rights.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I disagree that Republicans "always" have an edge on the economy. It's just that Democrats haven't been in power with a stable economy since January 2017. Obama was pretty well-regarded on the economy and then Trump took over that economy which nose-dived in 2020 and has been on a bumpy recovery since. So obviously the GOP is going to have the advantage on that issue now, but there is potential that if inflation finally comes under control and cost-of-living issues get addressed in some ways that Democrats can be received positively on it again. It isn't like crime, foreign policy, or immigration where Republicans always seem to be perceived better. As Ferguson said, those are examples of issues that "belong" to them while Democrats have health care.

Please check this out...
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1571605134911672321

So while the Democrats are GLOATING about the NBC Poll these underlying crosstabs are increasingly bad for them. If this is accurate Democrats are finished certainly in the House.

DeSantis & Abbott looks like were the smart ones here bringing back the Issue of Border/Immigration in their States where Republicans have a decided edge based on those Numbers.

When folks are saying the Cost of Living is more important then Abortion by 22 Points that is a MASSIVE, MASSIVE Red Flag for Democrats particularly on the House Side of things.

Democrats have IMO overplayed their hand with the Abortion Issue.

Do you really think the results of this abortion question support the point you are trying to make?
Do you understand how absolutely huge it is for 37% of voters to be prioritizing abortion over the economy in their vote, compared to historical averages?

If 37% of the electorate is motivated primarily by abortion in November, we're looking at a significant blue wave.

In spite of what I said above, I agree with you here. It can't be assumed that the GOP are going to get all 59% of those voters prioritizing the economy to vote for them, we're too polarized for that; but 37% prioritizing abortion? It's pretty clear how probably 90% or more of those people are going to vote. It explains how the Dobbs decision has leveled the playing field between both parties so much, as evidenced by the special elections.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult's midterm tracker updated again. It covers the entire last week by a 3-day rolling average. Most of the days were D48-45, while the latest update on 9/18 was 48-44, so pretty much unchanged since last week.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1572223060706758659

Not a poll itself, but some insight into nonresponse issues in the 2020 polling and some indication that we are not seeing nearly the same level of that problem this cycle

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't gonna pass any new programs they just keep taxes low they stopped the Federal stimulus checks because we have a 30 T dollar deficit


Just a reminder if Rs get the H they are gonna only pass aid to Ukraine they aren't gonna do anything else what is Congress arguing about now a WVA pipeline that doesn't matter to bringing down inflation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1572223060706758659

Not a poll itself, but some insight into nonresponse issues in the 2020 polling and some indication that we are not seeing nearly the same level of that problem this cycle

You haven't done predictions since 2004, go ahead and predict an R nut map you won't be able to update your map if Ryan, Demings, Crist, Beasley, Franken all win and even Barnes

Xing predicted GA TOgo R in 202o and he couldn't change it for the Runoff because predictions are closed and yep that R plus 8 poll that had Molinaro ahead was really spot on and Pat Ryan won by 3, it's gonna have the same effect on Johnson v Barnes because I don't see Barnes losing at the same time Evers wins, WI like NY are blue states not red states

[wbrocks67]

OnMessage for Senate Leadership Fund (R)
GCB R+3, 46-43

https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-09-32-PUBLIC-DECK-National-SOF.pdf

Their last poll was R+2, 46-44

If you have time, it's fun to go through the questions. This is the most push-polliest poll you'll ever see.

[wbrocks67]

Echelon Insights GCB

RV: D+7 (49-42)
LV: D+5 (49-44)

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/september-omnibus-update-2022/

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1572223060706758659

Not a poll itself, but some insight into nonresponse issues in the 2020 polling and some indication that we are not seeing nearly the same level of that problem this cycle

We retroactively found that in 2020, likely Democrats according to voter file models (don't remember if we specified white or not) were 23% more likely to answer polls than likely Republicans on average and some states reached as high as 30%. We're also seeing that delta shrink considerably this year, though a delta does still exist. I don't remember what the delta between likely Democrats and likely independents was (there was one, but significantly smaller).

[Person Man]

Echelon Insights GCB

RV: D+7 (49-42)
LV: D+5 (49-44)

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/september-omnibus-update-2022/

It was what last month? 4-8?

[wbrocks67]

Echelon Insights GCB

RV: D+7 (49-42)
LV: D+5 (49-44)

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/september-omnibus-update-2022/

It was what last month? 4-8?

Yep last month it was D+8 among RV and D+4 among LV.

[windjammer]

Obviously they're seeing something if they're dumping nearly $2M in then. The committees likely know more than us since they have more data than we see.

Unless the polls those very competent committees (NRCC/NRSC) are working with have the same bias as the polls which we here have seen, of course, but let’s just rule out that scenario (even though that’s what happened in 2020).

For the record, the words you used "those very competent committees" killed me very hard.

[Gass3268]

Echelon Insights GCB

RV: D+7 (49-42)
LV: D+5 (49-44)

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/september-omnibus-update-2022/

People forget, but Echelon is a Republican polling firm.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1572223060706758659

Not a poll itself, but some insight into nonresponse issues in the 2020 polling and some indication that we are not seeing nearly the same level of that problem this cycle

That is good news, but does this only apply to Siena or are other polling firms finding the same thing?

Echelon Insights GCB

RV: D+7 (49-42)
LV: D+5 (49-44)

https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/september-omnibus-update-2022/

Democrats being close to that ever-important 50% mark looks very promising here. Let's hope it holds up.

[UWS]

In this context of the War in Ukraine, a lot of Democrats running this year are Putin's pipeline partners.

Even three months after Putin started to amass troops at the border with Ukraine in March of last year, Senator Patty Murray and Congressman Tim Ryan received campaign contributions from a Democratic lobbyist called Vincent Roberti whom Axios reported to be working Nord Stream 2, the Russian-backed natural gas pipeline into Europe, that garnered bipartisan opposition.

https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/individual-contributions/?contributor_name=Roberti%2C+Vincent&two_year_transaction_period=2022

https://www.axios.com/2021/12/03/nord-stream-2-lobbyist-donations-schumer

In January 2022, Murray, along with the vast majority of her party, has voted against the Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act of 2022 that would impose sanctions on Nord Stream Pipeline and we all know what happened after the vote : Russia began his invasion in Ukraine.

https://www.murray.senate.gov/senator-murray-statement-on-nord-stream-2-vote/

So the Democratic Party has emboldened Putin and a vote for a Democratic Congress is a vote for a Russian takeover of Ukraine and then, likely, the next-door country of Moldova. That's the reason why a GOP congress is the right course to win the War in Ukraine by taking advantage of all of America's sources of energy so Europeans can expect to rely on imports of American energy to heat this winter and by reinforcing our military to counter Russia's military strength and grant Ukraine with all the weaponry needed to win this War.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

In this context of the War in Ukraine, a lot of Democrats running this year are Putin's pipeline partners.

Even three months after Putin started to amass troops at the border with Ukraine in March of last year, Senator Patty Murray and Congressman Tim Ryan received campaign contributions from a Democratic lobbyist called Vincent Roberti whom Axios reported to be working Nord Stream 2, the Russian-backed natural gas pipeline into Europe, that garnered bipartisan opposition.

https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/individual-contributions/?contributor_name=Roberti%2C+Vincent&two_year_transaction_period=2022

https://www.axios.com/2021/12/03/nord-stream-2-lobbyist-donations-schumer

In January 2022, Murray, along with the vast majority of her party, has voted against the Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act of 2022 that would impose sanctions on Nord Stream Pipeline and we all know what happened after the vote : Russia began his invasion in Ukraine.

https://www.murray.senate.gov/senator-murray-statement-on-nord-stream-2-vote/

So the Democratic Party has emboldened Putin and a vote for a Democratic Congress is a vote for a Russian takeover of Ukraine and then, likely, the next-door country of Moldova. That's the reason why a GOP congress is the right course to win the War in Ukraine by taking advantage of all of America's sources of energy so Europeans can expect to rely on imports of American energy to heat this winter and by reinforcing our military to counter Russia's military strength and grant Ukraine with all the weaponry needed to win this War.

Have you considered taking a job in opposition research for the GOP? I don't actually mean that as an insult, this is actually very comprehensive work.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1572570949500960771

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov tracker has the GCB at D+5 (45/40) this week, up from D+4 (43/39).

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xeu4apb94g/econTabReport.pdf

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’m not sure what’s going on in AZ-2, but something definitely is imo.  Between that Republican internal showing (IIRC) Crane up by only like 1%, the NRCC dumping money on this district, and now this, it’s clear this race is more competitive than expected.  That said, I kinda wonder what might account for this as this doesn’t seem like a place where Dobbs would cause an especially strong shift and while O’Halleran has run many a competitive race, he always struck me as a pretty generic/unremarkable backbencher.  Thoughts?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1572573036771147777

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov tracker has the GCB at D+5 (45/40) this week, up from D+4 (43/39).

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xeu4apb94g/econTabReport.pdf

POLITICO/Morning Consult also at D+5 this week, 46-41. Margin unchanged from last week (47/42)

[wbrocks67]

I’m not sure what’s going on in AZ-2, but something definitely is imo.  Between that Republican internal showing (IIRC) Crane up by only like 1%, the NRCC dumping money on this district, and now this, it’s clear this race is more competitive than expected.  That said, I kinda wonder what might account for this as this doesn’t seem like a place where Dobbs would cause an especially strong shift and while O’Halleran has run many a competitive race, he always struck me as a pretty generic/unremarkable backbencher.  Thoughts?

Could be totally off, but I wonder if the entire GOP statewide ticket is hurting the party across the board? Maybe Kelly is giving off some coattails to everyone else? It does seem odd that this race in particular would be competitive, bc on paper it really shouldn't be. I only say this bc they moved AZ-01 in Ds direction too.