2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

It's almost as if Kari Lake is not winning by 4-5 in the governors race!

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

It's almost as if Kari Lake is not winning by 4-5 in the governors race!

You’re obsessed, lol. I can say with complete confidence that O’Halleran will easily out run Hobbs here and that, if for whatever reason, Crane is doing poorly it has little to do with the governor race.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

It's almost as if Kari Lake is not winning by 4-5 in the governors race!

You’re obsessed, lol. I can say with complete confidence that O’Halleran will easily out run Hobbs here and that, if for whatever reason, Crane is doing poorly it has little to do with the governor race.

What I'm saying is that it's quite possible that polls showing Dems doing rather well in AZ (Kelly up 4-6, Hobbs up 1-3) are probably more likely to be right then if even seats like AZ-02 are competitive.

There is no scenario where Lake is winning by 5 and Kelly is winning by 1 where AZ-02 is somewhat competitive.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

It's almost as if Kari Lake is not winning by 4-5 in the governors race!

You’re obsessed, lol. I can say with complete confidence that O’Halleran will easily out run Hobbs here and that, if for whatever reason, Crane is doing poorly it has little to do with the governor race.

What I'm saying is that it's quite possible that polls showing Dems doing rather well in AZ (Kelly up 4-6, Hobbs up 1-3) are probably more likely to be right then if even seats like AZ-02 are competitive.

There is no scenario where Lake is winning by 5 and Kelly is winning by 1 where AZ-02 is somewhat competitive.

Well, I think that is my point. AZ-02 will not be competitive and I do not understand what the NRCC is doing. Let them burn the money. AZ-01 and 06 will ultimately be closer races.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1571518227779579905

This is honestly one of the strangest developments of the cycle for me. It’s not like O’Halleran was pulling amazing numbers in past races, so I don’t understand what the NRCC is seeing in their internals.

It's almost as if Kari Lake is not winning by 4-5 in the governors race!

You’re obsessed, lol. I can say with complete confidence that O’Halleran will easily out run Hobbs here and that, if for whatever reason, Crane is doing poorly it has little to do with the governor race.

What I'm saying is that it's quite possible that polls showing Dems doing rather well in AZ (Kelly up 4-6, Hobbs up 1-3) are probably more likely to be right then if even seats like AZ-02 are competitive.

There is no scenario where Lake is winning by 5 and Kelly is winning by 1 where AZ-02 is somewhat competitive.

Well, I think that is my point. AZ-02 will not be competitive and I do not understand what the NRCC is doing. Let them burn the money. AZ-01 and 06 will ultimately be closer races.

Obviously they're seeing something if they're dumping nearly $2M in then. The committees likely know more than us since they have more data than we see.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously they're seeing something if they're dumping nearly $2M in then. The committees likely know more than us since they have more data than we see.

Unless the polls those very competent committees (NRCC/NRSC) are working with have the same bias as the polls which we here have seen, of course, but let’s just rule out that scenario (even though that’s what happened in 2020).

[2016]

Please check this out...
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1571619287252574214

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1571605134911672321

So while the Democrats are GLOATING about the NBC Poll these underlying crosstabs are increasingly bad for them. If this is accurate Democrats are finished certainly in the House.

DeSantis & Abbott looks like were the smart ones here bringing back the Issue of Border/Immigration in their States where Republicans have a decided edge based on those Numbers.

When folks are saying the Cost of Living is more important then Abortion by 22 Points that is a MASSIVE, MASSIVE Red Flag for Democrats particularly on the House Side of things.

Democrats have IMO overplayed their hand with the Abortion Issue.

[new_patomic]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

[2016]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

This is true if by "many voters" you mean "Republicans who were always going to vote Republican anyway"

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

2016, how do you not believe the top line but think the crosstabs are the complete ironclad truth?

[GeorgiaModerate]

2016, how do you not believe the top line but think the crosstabs are the complete ironclad truth?

See definition 4: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cherry_picker

[Ferguson97]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

How do you witness the Kansas referendum and the Alaska special election and still believe this lmao

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

How do you witness the Kansas referendum and the Alaska special election and still believe this lmao

Because low-propensity voters go for Republicans now since it isn't a Presidential election year. Of course they will make a massive exception and all turn out in November.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that Democrats were also down by like 14-15% in the NBC poll on the economy in 2018 and Dems went on to win by 8.5%.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

This screams more "i personally dont want more voters to hear about abortion because it makes things worse for the GOP"

[Unelectable Bystander]

I feel pretty good about this NBC poll because if I remember correctly, they have never in the last decade been biased towards republicans in terms of the final margin, they’ve only been accurate or biased towards democrats.

I’m starting to agree with Russ Feingold that this will be a “candidate quality wave”. These issue ratings are absolutely awful for democrats and I think that any republican in a competitive district without baggage will be able to sweep the undecideds easily and perform like it’s a wave. Anybody with a habit of saying stupid things (personified by the trio of Walker, Masters, and Oz but also existing in the house) will have a battle and probably lose if their opponent can make the case that they are not problematic (even if they’re a party line liberal).

[Person Man]

I feel pretty good about this NBC poll because if I remember correctly, they have never in the last decade been biased towards republicans in terms of the final margin, they’ve only been accurate or biased towards democrats.

I’m starting to agree with Russ Feingold that this will be a “candidate quality wave”. These issue ratings are absolutely awful for democrats and I think that any republican in a competitive district without baggage will be able to sweep the undecideds easily and perform like it’s a wave. Anybody with a habit of saying stupid things (personified by the trio of Walker, Masters, and Oz but also existing in the house) will have a battle and probably lose if their opponent can make the case that they are not problematic (even if they’re a party line liberal).

People are more willing than you think in green lighting people who are pretty extreme if they think the other guy is incompetent.

[Ferguson97]

Some interesting numbers from the NYT poll

Speak Spanish at home: 62D-29R

Don't speak Spanish at home: 47D-37D

Born in US: 54D-34D

Born abroad: 64D-27R

1st gen: 61D-27R

2nd gen: 57D-36R

3rd gen: 52D-30R

18-29: 61D-28R

30-44: 61D-29R

44-64: 44D-39R

65+: 63D-29R

Hispanic Men: 47D-41R

Hispanic Women: 65D-22R

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Please check this out...
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1571605134911672321

So while the Democrats are GLOATING about the NBC Poll these underlying crosstabs are increasingly bad for them. If this is accurate Democrats are finished certainly in the House.

DeSantis & Abbott looks like were the smart ones here bringing back the Issue of Border/Immigration in their States where Republicans have a decided edge based on those Numbers.

When folks are saying the Cost of Living is more important then Abortion by 22 Points that is a MASSIVE, MASSIVE Red Flag for Democrats particularly on the House Side of things.

Democrats have IMO overplayed their hand with the Abortion Issue.

Do you really think the results of this abortion question support the point you are trying to make?
Do you understand how absolutely huge it is for 37% of voters to be prioritizing abortion over the economy in their vote, compared to historical averages?

If 37% of the electorate is motivated primarily by abortion in November, we're looking at a significant blue wave.

[President Johnson]

I really don't get it why Republicans have such an edge in the economy? It's out of question that the economy has done better under Democratic presidents since at least the end of the Cold War. Don't people remember this? What proposals have Republicans even introduced in terms of the economy other than tax cuts for the super rich? They're even too busy fighting culture wars than introduce serious proposals. The Democrats really need to work on this issue and gain an edge here.

I guess it's just common "gut feeling" Republicans are better on that, and it's hard to argue with numbers and statistics against that.

[UncleSam]

I really don't get it why Republicans have such an edge in the economy? It's out of question that the economy has done better under Democratic presidents since at least the end of the Cold War. Don't people remember this? What proposals have Republicans even introduced in terms of the economy other than tax cuts for the super rich? They're even too busy fighting culture wars than introduce serious proposals. The Democrats really need to work on this issue and gain an edge here.

I guess it's just common "gut feeling" Republicans are better on that, and it's hard to argue with numbers and statistics against that.

I mean, Democrats literally want to raise taxes (mostly on the super rich, but raise taxes nonetheless) in order to fund social programs. By definition, Democrats prioritize social spending over the economy. The GOP is the opposite. Who the economy does better under is not a very useful metric because in general policy changes take a long time (often years) to be felt in economic terms, so while an incumbent party may get the benefit of a strong economy in an individual election, that doesn’t really change peoples’ perceptions of the parties’ relative prioritization of the economy vs social spending vs defense spending. The GOP is generally perceived as being Economy > Defense > Social, while Dems are perceived as being Social > Economy > Defense.

Dems’ best strategy on the economy honestly may be to emphasize the GOPs’ defense spending. If they can paint the GOP as being equally willing to spend money when in power then they can at least equalize the issue.

[Tintrlvr]

I really don't get it why Republicans have such an edge in the economy? It's out of question that the economy has done better under Democratic presidents since at least the end of the Cold War. Don't people remember this? What proposals have Republicans even introduced in terms of the economy other than tax cuts for the super rich? They're even too busy fighting culture wars than introduce serious proposals. The Democrats really need to work on this issue and gain an edge here.

I guess it's just common "gut feeling" Republicans are better on that, and it's hard to argue with numbers and statistics against that.

The thing is that the Republicans have *always* had an advantage in polling on the economy relative to other issues - even when the economy is doing noticeably worse than average under a Republican President or noticeably better than average under a Democratic President. In fact, I'm not sure even in the waning days of the Bush presidency during total collapse of the financial sector that the Democrats actually polled better than the Republicans on the economy, and, even if they did, the economy continued to be a relative strong point for the Republicans compared to other major issues of the time, such as healthcare or nebulous points such as "jobs" that are often polled separately from the economy.

I agree with you that the polling reveals that the public has a built-in bias to believe that the Republicans are "the economy party" and just better at running the economy, regardless of whether that is true. I think it comes in part from a fairly accurate perception that the Republicans are the party of business combined with some logical errors on whether the interests of business are actually aligned with the interests of the economy writ large as well as the idea built into American politics that regulatory actions and taxes are always a trade-off with economic strength (an idea that I think even many right-wing economists would reject, let alone those from the center or the left). I'm not sure therefore if it's really worth it for the Democrats to try fighting on this battlefield that is inherently tilted against them: Focus on their strengths instead, and try to change the dialogue long-term around economic policy.

[Person Man]

I really don't get it why Republicans have such an edge in the economy? It's out of question that the economy has done better under Democratic presidents since at least the end of the Cold War. Don't people remember this? What proposals have Republicans even introduced in terms of the economy other than tax cuts for the super rich? They're even too busy fighting culture wars than introduce serious proposals. The Democrats really need to work on this issue and gain an edge here.

I guess it's just common "gut feeling" Republicans are better on that, and it's hard to argue with numbers and statistics against that.

The thing is that the Republicans have *always* had an advantage in polling on the economy relative to other issues - even when the economy is doing noticeably worse than average under a Republican President or noticeably better than average under a Democratic President. In fact, I'm not sure even in the waning days of the Bush presidency during total collapse of the financial sector that the Democrats actually polled better than the Republicans on the economy, and, even if they did, the economy continued to be a relative strong point for the Republicans compared to other major issues of the time, such as healthcare or nebulous points such as "jobs" that are often polled separately from the economy.

I agree with you that the polling reveals that the public has a built-in bias to believe that the Republicans are "the economy party" and just better at running the economy, regardless of whether that is true. I think it comes in part from a fairly accurate perception that the Republicans are the party of business combined with some logical errors on whether the interests of business are actually aligned with the interests of the economy writ large as well as the idea built into American politics that regulatory actions and taxes are always a trade-off with economic strength (an idea that I think even many right-wing economists would reject, let alone those from the center or the left). I'm not sure therefore if it's really worth it for the Democrats to try fighting on this battlefield that is inherently tilted against them: Focus on their strengths instead, and try to change the dialogue long-term around economic policy.

Definitely one of those issues where we have to get people thinking again, and not racing to change their mind (which currently can't be changed because it's on autopilot).