2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 168817 times)
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #2275 on: September 13, 2022, 11:13:18 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 13, 2022, 11:10:42 AM
PA-05 is a Biden +32 district.... Are they serious.
Movement conservatives(like Tom Emmer) have contempt for their own voters. They'd rather win back those educated suburbanites than be associated with wwc in MI-8 for example
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #2276 on: September 13, 2022, 12:04:00 PM »
Dems break 45.0% on the GCB, +1.3.

Highest percentage average since October 4, 2021
Highest margin since November 13, 2021
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #2277 on: September 13, 2022, 12:31:28 PM »
RCP 9/13/14: R +3.9
RCP 9/13/22: D +0.5
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2278 on: September 13, 2022, 02:04:30 PM »
Quote from: gracile on September 13, 2022, 10:55:32 AM
The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:



LOL Gottheimer? He's going to win by double digits. They're out of their minds.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2279 on: September 13, 2022, 02:14:59 PM »

This could be a credible neutral election.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #2280 on: September 13, 2022, 02:16:09 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on September 13, 2022, 02:04:30 PM
Quote from: gracile on September 13, 2022, 10:55:32 AM
The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:



LOL Gottheimer? He's going to win by double digits. They're out of their minds.
Maybe not by dd but he will definitely win
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Person Man
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« Reply #2281 on: September 13, 2022, 03:51:13 PM »
538 now predicts the chances of the Rs winning outright and the Ds winning outright are the same.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #2282 on: September 13, 2022, 04:20:28 PM »
Quote from: Person Man on September 13, 2022, 03:51:13 PM
538 now predicts the chances of the Rs winning outright and the Ds winning outright are the same.

It feels weird as hell to be more cautious on Democratic chances than 538's model, but I guess that's where I am.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2283 on: September 14, 2022, 08:07:30 AM »
Morning Consult/Politico GCB at D+5, 47-42. Same as their last poll.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/09/13132410/2209050_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_09-14-22_SH.pdf
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2284 on: September 14, 2022, 09:23:43 AM »
If there were just less undecideds in these polls.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #2285 on: September 14, 2022, 09:29:35 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 on September 14, 2022, 09:23:43 AM
If there were just less undecideds in these polls.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2286 on: September 14, 2022, 09:33:02 AM »
Quote from: Discount $15 Crudité Darthpi on September 14, 2022, 09:29:35 AM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 on September 14, 2022, 09:23:43 AM
If there were just less undecideds in these polls.





Is there movement?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #2287 on: September 14, 2022, 09:35:02 AM »
Quote from: Person Man on September 14, 2022, 09:33:02 AM
Quote from: Discount $15 Crudité Darthpi on September 14, 2022, 09:29:35 AM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 on September 14, 2022, 09:23:43 AM
If there were just less undecideds in these polls.





Is there movement?

"Fewer" undecideds, not "less" undecideds. Grammar
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2288 on: September 14, 2022, 01:55:38 PM »
Reuters/Ipsos up to D+4, though still lots of undecideds, 37-33.

Their last poll was D+2
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2289 on: September 14, 2022, 05:42:20 PM »
Fox News has GCB at D+3, 44-41.  It was 41-41 in their last poll.

"Certain to vote" is tied, 45-45.

Also of note, the undecideds/others are also lukewarm on both Democrats and Republicans

Fifteen percent of voters are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. This group has unfavorable views of both the Democratic Party (67%) and the GOP (64%).

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-inflation-abortion-motivating-voter-turnout
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2290 on: September 14, 2022, 07:07:24 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on September 13, 2022, 02:16:09 PM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on September 13, 2022, 02:04:30 PM
Quote from: gracile on September 13, 2022, 10:55:32 AM
The NRCC has added 7 candidates to their "On the Radar" program - which appears to be a bunch of reach seats:



LOL Gottheimer? He's going to win by double digits. They're out of their minds.
Maybe not by dd but he will definitely win

He is dominating when it comes to ads on both the internet and television. Meanwhile all I am seeing out of Pallota are yard signs an other signs lazily placed on highways. I expect a nine point victory for Gottheimer, more than in 2020 due to the changes in the district makeup, but still relatively similar.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2291 on: September 14, 2022, 07:07:46 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 14, 2022, 05:42:20 PM
Fox News has GCB at D+3, 44-41.  It was 41-41 in their last poll.

"Certain to vote" is tied, 45-45.

Also of note, the undecideds/others are also lukewarm on both Democrats and Republicans

Fifteen percent of voters are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. This group has unfavorable views of both the Democratic Party (67%) and the GOP (64%).

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-inflation-abortion-motivating-voter-turnout

Even if undecideds break 2:1 for the GOP, that only makes the NPV R+2. Wow.
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Gracile
gracile
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« Reply #2292 on: September 15, 2022, 10:46:19 AM »
NRCC adds 13 more candidates to their "Young Guns" program-
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #2293 on: September 15, 2022, 01:03:10 PM »

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-inflation-abortion-motivating-voter-turnout
Fox POLL have D's ahead on GCB 44/41 it was R+7 in May big if true
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2294 on: September 15, 2022, 02:37:06 PM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2295 on: September 15, 2022, 04:04:25 PM »
GOP really trying to make Yesli Vega happen when it's just not happening.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #2296 on: September 15, 2022, 04:16:32 PM »
Quote from: gracile on September 15, 2022, 10:46:19 AM
NRCC adds 13 more candidates to their "Young Guns" program-


John Gibbs is not winning no matter how much money you put on that seat! Neither is Erik Aadland. And the Florida Republicans don't need the money! How incompetent are these people?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2297 on: September 15, 2022, 04:21:55 PM »
It would truly be hilarious if Malinowski was able to win again and titanium R candidate Keane lost twice in a row.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #2298 on: September 15, 2022, 04:41:57 PM »
I hope everyone knows it's a 65/60M EDay since 2012 AZ and GA have replaced IA and OH, but we won 65/60M in 2018 and won MT WV and OH and AZ and NV Sen and in 2020 we won NC Gov it's a 51/44 Sen WI and PA net gains UT, OH, NC and FL are Tossup but IA, MO, KY and IN are in play too but as of now it's 51/44 D 65/60 Sen verifying the 303 wall and CCM and Barnes aren't out of it down 1 and Early voting starts Ocr 1/31
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #2299 on: September 15, 2022, 04:44:38 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 15, 2022, 04:21:55 PM
It would truly be hilarious if Malinowski was able to win again and titanium R candidate Keane lost twice in a row.

Honestly, I think we’re on track for that
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