2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1559983584718364672

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1559983584718364672

But OSR told me CA Economy Bad!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tbf, CA Latinos are disproportionately concentrated in greater LA so are prolly more prone to being liberal by default. You also have potentially more conservative ones in the Central Valley but those tend to be lower turnout and even then a lot are concentrated in liberal parts of Fresno and Bakerspider.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tbf, CA Latinos are disproportionately concentrated in greater LA so are prolly more prone to being liberal by default. You also have potentially more conservative ones in the Central Valley but those tend to be lower turnout and even then a lot are concentrated in liberal parts of Fresno and Bakerspider.

Good news for the GOP, there's absolutely no competitive districts in the Greater LA area

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1560213677546012672

[wbrocks67]

Can't say I understand the CO thing unless its just based off of ~vibes~ considering the public polling that we've seen gives the edge to Bennett. When even McLaughlin has you up nearly double digits, I don't see how it's on the same playing field as even PA.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don't quite get the Colorado change...

[Devils30]

Tbf, CA Latinos are disproportionately concentrated in greater LA so are prolly more prone to being liberal by default. You also have potentially more conservative ones in the Central Valley but those tend to be lower turnout and even then a lot are concentrated in liberal parts of Fresno and Bakerspider.

Good news for the GOP, there's absolutely no competitive districts in the Greater LA area

But a slight Latino shift back to the left cab flip 22,27 and 45 easily while making 40,41 competitive. Kim is probably safe for this year but long term who knows.

[Gracile]

Hard to see a way you could justify putting Pennsylvania and Colorado in the same category.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1560308412704886784

[Devils30]

Cyngal has R+3 at 47-44 on NC's generic ballot. Considering the state's lean is like 6 points red that's very consistent with a close House race overall.

[wesmoorenerd]

The CO change is pure Cook brain. This is Supposed To Be A Good Cycle For The Republicans so any change in the Democrats' favor, no matter how justified, must be balanced out by a change in the Republicans' favor, no matter how unjustified.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The CO change is pure Cook brain. This is Supposed To Be A Good Cycle For The Republicans so any change in the Democrats' favor, no matter how justified, must be balanced out by a change in the Republicans' favor, no matter how unjustified.

There's a 12+ point difference between how PA and CO voted in 2020. Obviously universal swing isn't real but c'mon.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The CO change is pure Cook brain. This is Supposed To Be A Good Cycle For The Republicans so any change in the Democrats' favor, no matter how justified, must be balanced out by a change in the Republicans' favor, no matter how unjustified.

Apparently even O’Dea’s internal polling isn’t showing a particularly competitive race which makes this move extra bizarre.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/stateoftheraces/status/1324719036953993216

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/stateoftheraces/status/1324719036953993216

Any rater who had Alabama as less than Likely R purely had it as that rating as a rule of Jones incumbency which was flawed imo. Also given the final result, ratings such as Likely R Mississippi, Solid D Virginia, or even Tossup ME were fine (Collins won by a lot less than topline would suggest cause RCV). It was really the classic theme of them underestimating partisanhsip in many of these R states.

Also, Lean D AZ, CO, and MI were all appropriate, not to mention Tossup GA and NC. Most of the usual battleground states had appropriate ratings.

The big lesson we learned in 2020 we should consider when evaluating a 2022 race such as OH-Sen (or on the converse CO-Sen) is that partisanship tends to win.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1560306818986889217

[windjammer]

https://twitter.com/stateoftheraces/status/1324719036953993216

Well to be fair when a party starts saying that the polls are junk, this usually means they are headed to a defeat

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/stateoftheraces/status/1324719036953993216

Well to be fair when a party starts saying that the polls are junk, this usually means they are headed to a defeat

It's always projection.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My projects as of today; curious to look back on this.

Alaska: Tshibaka + 4

Nobody wins an outright majority, so it goes to RCV where Murkowski makes up a lot of ground but still falls short. A few progressive or lower info Democrats do not rank Murkowski on their ballot, and many believe that was decisive.

Arizona: Masters + 1

Kelly does just fine in whiter Maricopa and Tucson suburbs, but falls short due to the usual poor Hispanic midterm turnout in AZ. The Governor's race is remarkably close causing chaos mostly due to Lake being weird.

Colorado: Bennett + 6

O' Dea does manage to get solid performances out of traditionally redder parts of the state such as Colorado Springs. However, this election confirms that Boulder and Denver are just too hard to outvote at this point and Republicans give up on the state going forwards.

Florida: Rubio + 5

Some see the race as closer than expected. Much of Rubio's crossover support from 2016 erodes and the election map looks quite similar to 2020 Pres. This gives many Dems a renewed sense of optimism in the state and the belief 2020 was somewhat of an anomaly.

Georgia: Warnock + 2

He just narrowly avoids a runoff. Walker continues to implode as election day nears, Atlanta swings left, and black turnout is solid. The map looks very very simillar to his 2021 runoff performance. Warnock also has a pretty universal overperformance of both Biden and Abrams in rural communities. Many credit the victory to really strong organization on the part of Dem activists, and people begin to treat GA as a "Lean D" state for 2024. The Governors race goes to a runoff.

Illinois: Duckworth + 9

Turnout differentials make the race a bit closer than expected in the end, but Dems don't worry too much about the result as Pritzker does slightly better and they believe in a more normal year Illinois should produce a solid margin for Dems

Nevada: Laxalt + 2

Both CCM and Laxalt continue to run pretty milktoast campaigns. While CCM outperforms Biden in a few heavily Hispanic and Black parts of Vegas, Laxalt does really well in whiter communities which similar to AZ, experience less of a turnout drop-off putting him over the edge. Many Dems become worried about their future in the state, and believe CCM should've tried to run a more charismatic campaign.

New Hampshire: Hassan + 7

In New England, local politics matters, so Hassan does just fine in the end, having a simillar map to Biden's except doing slightly better in rural/ancesteral D communities and slightly worse in most suburbs.

North Carolina: Budd + 3

The race is somewhat closer than folks expect given the national result. Like in GA, Black turnout is decent, and so is turnout in Mecklenburg and Wake Counties. Despite this, Beasley is unable to sustain many of Biden's margin's putting Budd over the edge

Ohio: Vance + 7

Polarization ultimately wins out and the map looks similar to 2020. Many Dems slap themselves on the face for believing they had a chance

Pennsylvania: Fetterman + 2

Ultimately, his campaign of painting Oz as a memeworthy celebrity from NJ is successful and he's able to win by overperforming Biden basically everywhere in rural areas, especially rural areas where Dems have seem the biggest slips. Many point to the Fetterman campaign as a success story and how more campaigns need to be run, while Oz shows a cautionary tale of what happens when you run a celebrity

Washington: Murray + 12

She does just fine and Smiley's performance is solid but not particularly notable

Wisconsion: Johnson + 3

The map looks simillar to 2016-Pres but a few points redder. Barnes does really great in both Madison and Milwaukee but struggles to find appeal elsewhere. None of Johnson's controversial statements really stick despite the Barne's campaigns attempts, and he successfully ties Barnes to the radical left Biden agenda.

This makes the Senate 51R-49D

In the House, Republicans have a relatively underwhelming night with no clear strength of seats that wins them a massive majority (i.e. high education suburban seats for Dems in 2018). In the end, they get about 230 seats or so. Most see the House map as relatively boring and predictable with few upsets.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Masters is done 8 points in every poll

Johnson won't win by 3 pts every network have D's at 50 seats already the Senate is at 62%, D Progressive Moderate think we are at a net loss of seats and Mcconnell already said he expects to lose Sen they already cut funding in WI, PA and AZl

Users still think Masters is gonna win and Masters is begging McConnell to fund him and the RSCC has defunded him

Vance isn't winning by 7 the last poll had him up 3 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Furthermore I would I suggest Progressive Moderate look at Steve Konraki on MSNBC and he shows that Beasley, Demings, Ryan, Barnes and Fetterman ALL LEAN D TAKEOVER

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1561337327796031488?t=xx3ykRjenqQfJVnN5...

[SnowLabrador]

F***! The environment is improving for Republicans again, just like I said it would!

[GeorgiaModerate]

F***! The environment is improving for Republicans again, just like I said it would!

Why are you still here?