2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Initial DSCC target list:

The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

Drop Ohio and this a fine list, Democrats should not spend a cent in Ohio. If the DSCC spends in Iowa, they are officially the most stupid campaign organization in existence.

They really shouldn't bother in Florida either. Knowing where not to spend is probably even more valuable than figuring out where to spend these days. I'd rather have fewer, but likelier to be won targets, than the party spreading itself too thin.

[Spectator]

Initial DSCC target list:

The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

Drop Ohio and this a fine list, Democrats should not spend a cent in Ohio. If the DSCC spends in Iowa, they are officially the most stupid campaign organization in existence.

They really shouldn't bother in Florida either. Knowing where not to spend is probably even more valuable than figuring out where to spend these days. I'd rather have fewer, but likelier to be won targets, than the party spreading itself too thin.

Yep, Democrats spent a lot of money chasing wild geese in dark red states like Iowa, Montana, South Carolina, Alaska, Kansas, and Kentucky in 2020, and that was not the wisest move.

[UncleSam]

People like to overrate the impact of ‘wasting’ money tbh. Lots of local donors will only give to local campaigns because voters are dumb. Running competitive candidates and fundraising reasonably are important even in races where you have a <5% chance to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Initial DSCC target list:

The DSCC investment initially will focus on Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. More states and funding could be added in later phases.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-launch-30-million-field-organizing-program-keep-senate-control-n1279758

Iowa is notably not on the list, but I suspect it may be added if Grassley retires.

Drop Ohio and this a fine list, Democrats should not spend a cent in Ohio. If the DSCC spends in Iowa, they are officially the most stupid campaign organization in existence.

They really shouldn't bother in Florida either. Knowing where not to spend is probably even more valuable than figuring out where to spend these days. I'd rather have fewer, but likelier to be won targets, than the party spreading itself too thin.

Yep, Democrats spent a lot of money chasing wild geese in dark red states like Iowa, Montana, South Carolina, and Kentucky in 2020, and that was not the wisest move.

You know good and well MT, AK, TX and KS are oil states the Election is 400 days and users are obsessed with Biden low Approvals they will come back

We won 80M votes last time too compared to Trump 70M

We won a Majority of the vote Obama and Biden

Ryan is tied in OH and DEMING'S is down by 2 in FL and so is Crist

Beto is down by only 5

[Matty]

Echelon insights for the third straight month has found dems ahead by 10 on their GCB poll

It’s obviously a sampling issue. It’s just not correct.

Patrick Ruffini needs to address this

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1443609309217234946

[SnowLabrador]

D+8 in the polls is probably D+2-3 in actuality. It would take little short of a miracle for Democrats to hold either chamber of Congress, especially the House.

[President Johnson]

Democrats were also up in late 2013 after Ted Cruz forced the government shutdown. Now, I'm not saying 2022 is going to be 2014 repeated, but it's obviously way too early for predictions. 14 months are a lifetime in politics.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Democrats were also up in late 2013 after Ted Cruz forced the government shutdown. Now, I'm not saying 2022 is going to be 2014 repeated, but it's obviously way too early for predictions. 14 months are a lifetime in politics.

ok, but this is a thread for posting generic ballot polls?

[wbrocks67]

D+8 in the polls is probably D+2-3 in actuality. It would take little short of a miracle for Democrats to hold either chamber of Congress, especially the House.

You really do the most.

[Roll Roons]

Wasserman put out Cook's first ratings of House seats in ME, NE, OR and states with one district: https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings. He said they'll update the chart as more states finish maps.

[Woody]

[soundchaser]

Cillizza's saying it? Democrats have nothing to be worried about, then! Good news!

[Devils30]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/biden-approval-ratings.html

The fact that Biden has kept most of his white college, older voter support is definitely a different dynamic than 2010. The truth is a lot of very smart elections people really do not know what will happen in 2022, the last time we were polarized like this was 1876-1900, before polling began.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/biden-approval-ratings.html

The fact that Biden has kept most of his white college, older voter support is definitely a different dynamic than 2010. The truth is a lot of very smart elections people really do not know what will happen in 2022, the last time we were polarized like this was 1876-1900, before polling began.

The Rs haven't cracked the Blue wall since 2016 already the 2014 Election they only won one blue state in CO, it's really been since 2010 , in a Midterm has Rs been able to crack blue wall MI, PA and WI and Gary Johnson cost Hillary 50K votes in the Big three anyways it only takes 278 to to win and Biden is stronger than Hillary not 413, but D's if Biden gets above 50 can make a run at NC, OH and FL

Ryan, Demings and Beasley can win in a blue wave if D's keep the H but as of now it's a 304 map anything can happen in a yr

[I’m not Stu]

Isn't that an Iowa poll? Iowa is a very Republican state.

[Xing]

This would be like someone stubbing their toe on January 1st, 2020 due to being drunk, and then proclaiming that it means 2020 will be a terrible year.

[SnowLabrador]

Isn't that an Iowa poll? Iowa is a very Republican state.

It's red, but it's not that red unless it's a massive red wave of Biblical proportions.

[DaleCooper]

Isn't that an Iowa poll? Iowa is a very Republican state.

It's red, but it's not that red unless it's a massive red wave of Biblical proportions.

I don't expect Democrats to do well in 2022, but you're misunderstanding the partisan environment we're in right now. Saying that Iowa being solidly red means a red wave of Biblical proportions is like saying that Georgia being a tossup in a Biden midterm means Republicans are doomed to lose seats in the House and Senate. The map has changed and Iowa is gone for Democrats outside of very favorable off-year circumstances.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Isn't that an Iowa poll? Iowa is a very Republican state.

It's red, but it's not that red unless it's a massive red wave of Biblical proportions.

I don't expect Democrats to do well in 2022, but you're misunderstanding the partisan environment we're in right now. Saying that Iowa being solidly red means a red wave of Biblical proportions is like saying that Georgia being a tossup in a Biden midterm means Republicans are doomed to lose seats in the House and Senate. The map has changed and Iowa is gone for Democrats outside of very favorable off-year circumstances.

Thank you! I've been saying this since the Selzer poll before election day 2020. Iowa is not the national bellwether it used to be.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1445009354801958917?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

January 6 was not a protest.

[Matty]

qtrash has GOP up 46-43 in their generic ballot poll

dems hold 8 point lead among whites who went to college

but dems only up 5 among hispanics.

and down 68-19 among WWC

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac has been a hot ass mess for a while now. They're definitely overcorrecting from their mistakes in 2020. They have Republicans up nearly 15% with Indies in the GCB, and only +9 among 18-34 year olds, despite having Dems up +4 just a few weeks overall (now -3)

[DabbingSanta]

2022 Senate outlook:

First forecast for the next election season!  We are still over a year away so expect things to change a bit.  Pretty narrow playing field for both sides, with only 6-10 competitive races at the moment.

I have a pretty good track record (check my past predictions), and hoping this will continue. I've developed a new election model, but this is the first time it will be used on a US election.  I predicted the popular vote in the Canadian federal elections nearly perfect using this new model, so fingers crossed this is providing an accurate outlook as to what's going on and unskewing biased polling.  Gubernational outlook coming in the new year.



No tossups:


Margins:
Colorado +9 Dem
Pennsylvania +5 Dem
Arizona +3 Dem
Nevada +2 Dem
New Hampshire +1 Dem
Georgia +1 Rep
Wisconsin +5 Rep
North Carolina +7 Rep
Ohio +10 Rep
Florida +10 Rep