Pennsylvania Senate 2004: Could Casey have beaten Specter?

[Adlai Stevenson]

After losing the 2002 Gubernatorial primary to Ed Rendell, in 2004 Bob Casey was elected as Pennsylvania Treasurer by a landslide. At the same time, incumbent Republican Arlen Specter, after a narrow victory in the primary over an archconservative defeated Congressman Joe Hoeffel 53%-42%.

This election cycle, with Santorum so far down in the polls, it is arguable that Hoeffel could beat him.  However, my question is mainly that if Casey had run in 2004 against Specter, could he have beaten him?

[NewFederalist]

It would sure have been a lot closer but I think Specter would have pulled it out. The real opportunity to beat Specter is (was) in the primary just like the situation Lieberman is facing now.

[True Democrat]

I think that with Clymer in the race, Casey would not have beaten Specter, but with no Clymer, I say a small Casey win.  Clymer took away conservatives from  Specter, but many of these people might have voted Casey because he's pro-life.  Furthermore, there would have been a general swing to Casey, making him win over more of the general moderate population.  With no Clymer in the race, I would expect something like a 49-48 victory for Casey, though Specter could have won just as easily.

[Downwinder]

I don't think Casey would have defeated Specter in 2004, and I'm glad he didn't try.  Specter was, and still is, seen as a moderate republican, and if I'm not mistaken, he is generally popular in PA.  Casey has chosen the right race, against the right opponent in 2006. 

Specter doesn't have much time left in the Senate, and I'd make an early wager that the seat will flip when he retires. 

[Eraserhead]

I think Casey may have been able to defeat Specter but then again I wouldn't see much point in voting for him over Specter (speaking as a democrat). I think you would have seen huge amounts of Republicans voting for Casey and huge amounts of Democrats voting for Specter in that contest. It would be close.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think Casey may have been able to defeat Specter but then again I wouldn't see much point in voting for him over Specter (speaking as a democrat). I think you would have seen huge amounts of Republicans voting for Casey and huge amounts of Democrats voting for Specter in that contest. It would be close.

I would have considered Specter.

[Soaring Eagle]

It would have been a tossup. Specter would get a bigger chunk of the Democratic vote and Casey would get a bigger chunk of the GOP vote. It just depends on how much of the other party's vote each candidate would have gotten.

[Keystone Phil]

It would have certainly been possible. It would have been a very interesting race, too. I can't really say who would be favored though.

[Smash255]

As stated above large crossover vote bothways, Specter would have gotten quite a bit of s Democratic vote & casey would have gotten a alrge GOP vote.  Overall though I think Specter would have won.  casey would have done better than Hoeffel in the west & central portions of the state, but suburban Philly may have gone stronger for Specter than it did in 04 & that would have lessened the impact of the extra votes Casey would have gotten in other portions of the state.  the part of the state that would have cost casey from defeating Specter is ironically the part of the state which Casey is going to romp Santorum in.

[Rococo4]

No, he would have lost just like Hoeffel.. I wish he would have run so he would have been weakened against Santorum.

[WalterMitty]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

[Smash255]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

He will win against Santorum, not because of who he is & what he does, but because of who Santorum is & what he has done.

[Keystone Phil]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

He will win against Santorum, not because of who he is & what he does, but because of who Santorum is & what he has done.

Um, right. And, as usual, you ignore the fact that before Casey got in, Santorum had decent ratings and led in matchup polls.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

He will win against Santorum, not because of who he is & what he does, but because of who Santorum is & what he has done.

Um, right. And, as usual, you ignore the fact that before Casey got in, Santorum had decent ratings and led in matchup polls.

So why did Casey running turn Santorum into the most unpopular Senator in the country? It's one thing if people prefer Casey to Santorum, but that shouldn't change their overall approval/disapproval of him.

[Smash255]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

He will win against Santorum, not because of who he is & what he does, but because of who Santorum is & what he has done.

Um, right. And, as usual, you ignore the fact that before Casey got in, Santorum had decent ratings and led in matchup polls.

Casey jumping in may have impacted the matchup polls, but its not going to impact if the people of the state like Santorum or not.  Santorum on the vast majority of issues is a puppet to Bush & very close to Bush, Bush's #'s in the state (and across the nation) has taken a major hit during that span as well, that has impacted Santorum's#'s.  More & more Santorum is being seen as a hard right wing GOP Party line & a Bush loyalist Sennator, that hurts bigtime.

A person may change their mind on if they want to vote for soeone or not if they get opponent they really like, however they aren't going to change their mind on if they like a particular candidate or approve of a particular candidate because of their opponent.  That is decided on the job that candidate, politican, etc does themselves.  The votes may change depending on the opponent, but whether soemone is liked or not won't change because of the opponent. 

[WalterMitty]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

He will win against Santorum, not because of who he is & what he does, but because of who Santorum is & what he has done.

what has santorum done that is so bad?

sure, he has made some nutty remarks about abortion, gays and boston.  but let's not kid ourselves, most pennsylvanians feel the same way.  in fact, little casey probably feels the same way (especially about abortion)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

He will win against Santorum, not because of who he is & what he does, but because of who Santorum is & what he has done.

what has santorum done that is so bad?

sure, he has made some nutty remarks about abortion, gays and boston.  but let's not kid ourselves, most pennsylvanians feel the same way.  in fact, little casey probably feels the same way (especially about abortion)

Except Santorum is now the single most unpopular senator in the country.

If most Pennsylvanians feel the same way, why did they vote for Kerry?

[WalterMitty]

no, and he wont beat santorum either.

He will win against Santorum, not because of who he is & what he does, but because of who Santorum is & what he has done.

what has santorum done that is so bad?

sure, he has made some nutty remarks about abortion, gays and boston.  but let's not kid ourselves, most pennsylvanians feel the same way.  in fact, little casey probably feels the same way (especially about abortion)

Except Santorum is now the single most unpopular senator in the country.

If most Pennsylvanians feel the same way, why did they vote for Kerry?

those are two separate races. cant compare a senate race with a presidential race.

santorum was reelected in 2000, while gore carried the state. (by a bigger margin than kerry)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Still if most Pennsylvanians feel the exact same way as Santorum does on social issues (instead of just being igonrant in 2000) that doesn't make sense they'd vote that way. And Santorum is now the 2nd most unpopular Senator in the country (only a few points ahead of Conrad Burns)

[WalterMitty]

do you really think pa is enlightened on issues of gay rights?

[© tweed]

do you really think pa is enlightened on issues of gay rights?

Neither is Casey, so it shouldn't be an issue.

[WalterMitty]

do you really think pa is enlightened on issues of gay rights?

Neither is Casey, so it shouldn't be an issue.

gore and kerry won pa on the strength of the suburban vote.

who here actually thinks little casey is a good suburban candidate.  im not saying santorum is a good suburban candidate either, but at least he isnt spewing populist nonsense.  (he certainly spews nonsense sometimes, but at  least it isnt populist nonsense  )

[© tweed]

do you really think pa is enlightened on issues of gay rights?

Neither is Casey, so it shouldn't be an issue.

gore and kerry won pa on the strength of the suburban vote.

who here actually thinks little casey is a good suburban candidate.  im not saying santorum is a good suburban candidate either, but at least he isnt spewing populist nonsense.  (he certainly spews nonsense sometimes, but at  least it isnt populist nonsense  )

Well in a close race maybe the one thing that can make Casey lose is that Philly and suburban Philly have bad turnout for him.  But even then, I think they'd turn out for Rendell, so it's a moot point.

[Keystone Phil]

If most Pennsylvanians feel the same way, why did they vote for Kerry?

those are two separate races. cant compare a senate race with a presidential race.

santorum was reelected in 2000, while gore carried the state. (by a bigger margin than kerry)

BRTD is just being his usual dumb self. He asks that question over and over even though I've given him the answer before - PA is a partisan state when it comes to Presidential races so you really can't compare it.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey jumping in may have impacted the matchup polls, but its not going to impact if the people of the state like Santorum or not.  Santorum on the vast majority of issues is a puppet to Bush & very close to Bush, Bush's #'s in the state (and across the nation) has taken a major hit during that span as well, that has impacted Santorum's#'s.  More & more Santorum is being seen as a hard right wing GOP Party line & a Bush loyalist Sennator, that hurts bigtime.

You would think that it would just impact the matchup but it doesn't always happen like that. Look at Santorum's ratings before Casey jumped in. Kerry carried the state in November 2004 but at the same time Santorum had good approval ratings/low disapproval.

Being close to Bush does hurt Santorum, I will admit, but Bush wasn't extremely unpopular in early 2005 when Santorum started taking hits. People could also argue that the "hard right" Santorum could be seen in 2004 but look at his numbers throughout that year.