Pennsylvania Senate 2004: Could Casey have beaten Specter?

[TeePee4Prez]

The center part of the state is just not as conservative as everyone thinks save South Central PA.  Kerry did much better in the "T" than the non-black areas of Mississippi and Alabama.  I also don't think Northeastern PA is socially conservative at all, but it's not Berkeley either.  I would say a dead center social rating is warranted for PA considering the fact it's more pro-choice than the national average, a smidge more pro-gun, and slightly left on gay marriage/civil unions.  I would even go as far as a -0.5 social PC score which is a razor thin margin left of center. 

The NE isn't socially conservative at all? Are you kidding? We're slightly left on gay issues? You are crazy!

When I have time I'll pull the numbers, but most polls show that. 

[Keystone Phil]

When I have time I'll pull the numbers, but most polls show that. 

What polls show breakdown on issues like that aside from Quinnipiac?

[Smash255]

Taking the entire state into consideration I would say PA as a whole is slightly left of center.  The hard left shift in the Philly burbs pushed it as a hole from dead center to slightly left of center.  I don't know if I would say center-left, but it is slightly left of center.

Hack,

SE PA is not "hard left." Secondly, without SE PA, this state is not "dead center." If anything, PA is slightly right of center. You're so delusional.

I didn't say it was hard left, I said the hard left SHIFT.

Suburban Philly went from a pretty solid Republican area, to a decent sized Democratic lean (much the way Long Island has)  Going from pretty strong GOP, to a decent sized Democratic lean is a hard shift.  Anyway as a whole  when you take into consdieration each part of the state leans slightly left of center.   

[bullmoose88]

SE PA's ideology really hasn't changed all that much. Some but not too much.

I think its more of a change in the 2 national parties (locally things are pretty much the same as they always were)...

Clinton helped the Dems (nationally) here big time...and I think a guy like Bush 43 hurts the GOP here. I think we need a presidential election (or two) without a Bush or a Clinton (or a clone) to see what's really gone on with the area.

[Smash255]

SE PA's ideology really hasn't changed all that much. Some but not too much.

I think its more of a change in the 2 national parties (locally things are pretty much the same as they always were)...

Clinton helped the Dems (nationally) here big time...and I think a guy like Bush 43 hurts the GOP here. I think we need a presidential election (or two) without a Bush or a Clinton (or a clone) to see what's really gone on with the area.

I would tend to think SEPA is very much like Long Island, was economically conservative, and socially pretty much dead center, and has moved leftward on both issues and has become center on economic issues and left on social issues.  Clinton certaintly helped the Dems here as well as Bush hurt the GOP (though they rallied around him in 04 with the 9/11 effect). but as a whole the lefward movement in the area combined with the party change directions I would say Long Island and suburban Philly will be Dem leaning for a long time.