PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't know a damn thing about PA politics, so would Fitzpatrick be a good nominee for the GOP there?

Yes, but he’s probably too liberal to win a primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

McConnell, Gardner, and Tillis are all pretty conservative. Fitzpatrick not so much.

[Tekken_Guy]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past

How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.

If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.

I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

I'm not saying that the PA GOP is going to nominate a QAnon acolyte. They very well might, but it's unlikely. But Fitzpatrick is much to the left of a Roger Marshall on key wedge issues for the GOP base. Fitzpatrick is pro gun control, pro-DACA, and at least more anti-Trump than the average Republican.

These are not positions that will be tenable in a Republican primary, especially in a year where Republican enthusiasm is probable to be higher than average.

I don't know who the GOP will nominate, but I doubt Fitzpatrick even runs.

How about Reschenthaler?

[Tekken_Guy]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

McConnell, Gardner, and Tillis are all pretty conservative. Fitzpatrick not so much.

Exactly. While Gardner and Tillis are far more manageable than Akin, Buck, or Moore types, they haven’t done anything really to turn the base sharply against them in a primary

As for Reschenthaler, he is a good choice, but unless R turnout is very good, I think Shapiro beats him

Isn't Shapiro running for governor? Also, it's a Biden midterm so of course the GOP will have a good chance here.

[Tekken_Guy]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.

Definitely too soon for him to run in 2022. He should wait until maybe 2026 for governor if a Dem wins or 2030 otherwise.

[Tekken_Guy]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.

Definitely too soon for him to run in 2022. He should wait until maybe 2026 for governor if a Dem wins or 2030 otherwise.

2026 could be hurt if a republican wins in 2022

I said "if a Dem wins".

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1347361567101378560

This may be one of the first tests of a post-Trump GOP. If Costello runs, I'm on board with him. In any case, I think the moderates (Costello, Dent, Fitzpatrick) will coalesce around one of the three.

I’m still on board with Reschenthaler, because the others are too moderate for me.

[Tekken_Guy]

I’m still on board with Reschenthaler, because the others are too moderate for me.

As Reschenthaler's constituent, you do NOT want this guy in the U.S. Senate.

He seems like the PA version of Mike Gallagher. It's not like we're talking about Senator Doug Mastriano here, are we?

[Tekken_Guy]

I’m still on board with Reschenthaler, because the others are too moderate for me.

As Reschenthaler's constituent, you do NOT want this guy in the U.S. Senate.

He seems like the PA version of Mike Gallagher. It's not like we're talking about Senator Doug Mastriano here, are we?

https://twitter.com/GReschenthaler/status/1346868343295389704

Truly a sane Republican

That's not much different than what we hear Ron DeSantis and Dan Crenshaw talk about. That doesn't bother me.

[Tekken_Guy]

I’m still on board with Reschenthaler, because the others are too moderate for me.

As Reschenthaler's constituent, you do NOT want this guy in the U.S. Senate.

He seems like the PA version of Mike Gallagher. It's not like we're talking about Senator Doug Mastriano here, are we?

https://twitter.com/GReschenthaler/status/1346868343295389704

Truly a sane Republican

That's not much different than what we hear Ron DeSantis and Dan Crenshaw talk about. That doesn't bother me.

Sad

Then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here.

[Tekken_Guy]

Then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here.

About what? Fascism? Fascist enablers? Are we going to "agree to disagree" about the failed coup that the President incited that killed 5 people this week?

Actually, I believe the president should be impeached or removed from office via the 25th amendment. I also believe it is time for Republicans to move on from him. The party should come down hard on the likes of Mo Brooks and Marjorie Taylor Greene and let the real Republicans like Dan Crenshaw and Guy Reschenthaler take control of the party again.

And not all 73 million people who voted for Trump are fanatical devotees of the president who cheered the coup attempt.

[Tekken_Guy]

Then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here.

About what? Fascism? Fascist enablers? Are we going to "agree to disagree" about the failed coup that the President incited that killed 5 people this week?

Actually, I believe the president should be impeached or removed from office via the 25th amendment. I also believe it is time for Republicans to move on from him. The party should come down hard on the likes of Mo Brooks and Marjorie Taylor Greene and let the real Republicans like Dan Crenshaw and Guy Reschenthaler take control of the party again.

And not all 73 million people who voted for Trump are fanatical devotees of the president who cheered the coup attempt.

So just to be clear--you think Trump is a threat to democracy and the people who are at the most incredibly extreme end of devotion to him are bad...but the likes of Dan Crenshaw and Guy Reschenthaler are okay? What exactly separates Dan Crenshaw from Mo Brooks in terms of devotion to Trump? In the last 4 years, where have Crenshaw, DeSantis, Reschenthaler, etc deviated from Trump on crucial issues? Because that is an INCREDIBLE distinction you just made.

I supported Trump for his tax cuts, judges, and Israel policies. What I didn't like was the insane rambling on Twitter, the conspiracy theorizing etc. If Trump was focused more on the former than the latter, he would have won re-election. A lot of otherwise reliable Republican voters just don't want an unstable narcissist in office but will still vote for the policies of the GOP.

People like Crenshaw or DeSantis seem more like ass-kissers who like Trump's policies but privately think he's bad for the GOP's long-term prospects. They aren't baselessly claiming that the riot was an Antifa false flag. Mo Brooks on the other hand is a true believer who spouts every QAnon conspiracy theory known to man. It would do a great service for the mainstream Republican wing to stand up to the crazies and show they aren't really one of them.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is Guy Reschenthaler the PA GOP’s strongest candidate? Fitzpatrick and Costello can’t win a primary, and Kelly, Perry, Mastriano have no chance in the general.

[Tekken_Guy]

Do you have a source or is this a scoop? Not that it's unexpected, and tbh I'd support her if she ran, I am not that happy with the current choices, though I'm leaning Arkoosh atm, but I'd be for Dean, if she jumped in.

Would Arkoosh drop down to PA-04 if Dean got in?

[Tekken_Guy]

I really hope that people here don't dismiss this as "Who Cares?" and "Nothingburger". There are a lot of things that can be overlooked, but domestic abuse is not one of them.

Domestic abuse disqualifies Parnell from public office. But as of right now we don’t know whether or not the allegations are true yet.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is definitely looking similar to Herschel Walker. I wonder if McCormick reconsiders and chooses to take on Casey instead.

[Tekken_Guy]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

Some people who liked Lamb back then, and who thought he would be a great candidate for higher office back then do not like Lamb anymore because his 2020 re-election margin in his Congressional District was unambiguously pathetic. I myself am among these people.

Lamb wasn’t winning statewide in 2022 and he should have known that last year.  He should have just run for re-election.  Now his career is probably over.  Throw him in the same bucket as Brad Ellsworth, Charlie Melancon, Paul Hodes, and Bruce Braley of Democrats who ran for statewide races they were never going to win in bad years for Democrats.

To be fair to Ellsworth and Melancon, their house seats were gone once they flipped. And Braley and Hodes both did far worse than they should have in those senate races.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'd say it's time to rename the thread?

Suggestions: "Mr. Braddock vs. the New Jersey Doctor"; "The 51st vote?"

"We're Off to See the Wizard"

"Wizard vs. Ogre"

"Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz"

[Tekken_Guy]

Also, Fetterman has ancestral Dems to fall back on, whereas Kelly and Warnock do not.

[Tekken_Guy]

Easy to say Lamb would beat Oz when he hasn't faced negative press since the primary.

It's ridiculous. Fetterman is a great candidate aside from the health issues, sadly. Lamb's only advantage over Fetterman is that he didn't have a stroke, but he's worse on everything else. My instincts are wrong plenty of times, so take this with a grain of salt, but I strongly suspect that if Fetterman didn't have the health concerns at such a bad time, this election wouldn't even be competitive.

Without Fetterman’s health concerns I’d think Oz would be seen as no more of an underdog than Masters is now.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is PA-SEN showing similarities to NC-SEN 2020? Where a flawed R candidate narrowly beats a D candidate due to a late-breaking scandal?

[Tekken_Guy]

Honestly, it's reminding me right now of WI-2016, with the differences being that Fetterman was never as strong a candidate as Russ Feingold, and Dr. Oz isn't the incumbent.

Except Johnson was seen as a heavy underdog all the way up to Election Day.

[Tekken_Guy]

What scandal?

Not really a scandal but the health concerns.

Also the jogger incident.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why was Oz considered a weak candidate? He outperformed Mastriano by 10!

Oz never had a chance from primary night onwards because of the following things:

1.Pennsylvania from past election results likes it's Governors to be Liberal and it's Senators to be Conservative (remember Santorum ?).

2.Oz was upper class, while Fetterman was working class.

3.Oz spent his entire campaign making fun of Fetterman being working class.

4.The primaries hit Oz hard for being a muslim, a big no-no for conservatives as primary results showed.

Oz would have made sense for Governor and Mastriano for Senator from a GOP perspective.

I expect the Democrats would still have won both races.

Probably given what happened in all the other swing states, but the margings would have been way closer, and the republicans probably would have carried PA-7 and 8.

What about the 17th?