PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-disapproval spread.

Overall, I think Democrats are being overrated in PA and AZ, slightly underrated in WI and NC, definitely underrated in GA, and somehow both over- and underrated in NH. Don’t even get me started on NV.

Have you seen the GOP field here?

[Lognog]

Does no one remember 2017, this guy easily scares every GOP operative with a pulse. He's the candidate that has the best chance of winning. Besides one doomed vote on weed, He votes with the party. Yes, he's no Sanders but that isn't what's going to win in 2022

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Does no one remember 2017, this guy easily scares every GOP operative with a pulse. He's the candidate that has the best chance of winning. Besides one doomed vote on weed, He votes with the party. Yes, he's no Sanders but that isn't what's going to win in 2022

This.

The guy literally flipped a Trump +20 district in an election where Trump threw everything but the kitchen sink at.

[Holmes]

This might be an interesting primary. PA primaries are really regional, and with two strong SW PA candidates, I wonder if that gives someone from SE PA the opportunity slip by.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-dispproval spread.

You should see the video of the same announcement, but in Spanish. It's major Beto O'Rourke vibes:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1423620140449546243?s=20

“Pensilvania”

That’s like calling Oaxaca “Wahacka”

[GoldenMainer]

I'm rooting for Fetterman but alas, I don't live in Pennsylvania (and I get annoyed when out of staters tell Mainers who to vote for in primaries when they know very little about the state). So I'll root for Fetterman from afar and wish all you PA folk the best of luck. It must be nice to have viable choices in a primary!

[wbrocks67]

This might be an interesting primary. PA primaries are really regional, and with two strong SW PA candidates, I wonder if that gives someone from SE PA the opportunity slip by.

The thing is, Kenyatta and Arkoosh really haven't proven to be super viable at this point. Interested to see if that changes.

[wbrocks67]

Conor Lamb will win the primary and general.

Yeah, at the very least I think a lot of people here are being short-sighted and letting their biases get in the way.

It’s reminding me of when Jon Ossoff announced. He might be “bland” to hyper partisans on Atlas but regular folks will eat his schtick up. He’s inoffensive to white people and is the exact type of white candidate old Black folks love. And when he’s in office he will vote like a mainstream Democrat and will never be the deciding vote that kills any Dem legislation. I’m here for it.

Not to mention, Ossoff is way more liberal in the senate then I think anyone expected. I think Lamb would be slightly more liberal in the Senate instead of his house seat (where he can breathe for 6 years instead of running every 2 in a close to 50/50 district)

[MT Treasurer]

It’s reminding me of when Jon Ossoff announced. He might be “bland” to hyper partisans on Atlas but regular folks will eat his schtick up. He’s inoffensive to white people and is the exact type of white candidate old Black folks love. And when he’s in office he will vote like a mainstream Democrat and will never be the deciding vote that kills any Dem legislation. I’m here for it.

Ossoff underperformed Biden by 2 points in the first round, was saved by a runoff rule which does not apply to PA elections, ran in a state zooming leftward in which any Democratic statewide will be competitive regardless of the environment, and could count on a much, much more diverse electorate than Democrats in PA, who are still very reliant on holding their own in certain non-metropolitan regions. He also ran on enabling certain (select and popular) parts of the D agenda like stimulus checks, good luck with that after two years of complete Democratic control in Washington.

Ossoff being an "inoffensive white male" was never the reason he won that election—see: Warnock, Raphael winning by an even wider margin on the same day (even if it was against a 'weaker opponent'). Lamb running on "saving American democracy" in his first announcement video isn’t exactly the sign of an inoffensive white male who won’t activate partisan identity by enraging/vilifying the other side and completely nationalizing the race...

[Skye]

“Pensilvania”

That’s like calling Oaxaca “Wahacka”

Um, you do know places can have different spelling in different languages, right?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

You all can swear all you want that Lamb won't be like Sinema but I'm not taking that chance. Too many times, people have ran to the left of how they actually govern. Besides, Fetterman has tons of wwc appeal and is also like lamb more moderate on environmental issues.  I understand the concerns about the jogging incident(I worry about a repeat of NC Sen 2020 with suburbanites leaving their votes blank). But given the weakness of the GOP bench and the lack of Houlahan who was my preferred choice, I just think Fetterman is the lesser of two evils. I also think Lambs electability is overrated. 2020(which is the most recent election) proved his star power is waning when he underperformed Biden.

[Roll Roons]

In honor of today's news, may I present this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCiW-R5bY2k

One of the most... unique political ads I've ever seen.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

In honor of today's news, may I present this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCiW-R5bY2k

One of the most... unique political ads I've ever seen.

That ratio... yikes!

[SnowLabrador]

In honor of today's news, may I present this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCiW-R5bY2k

One of the most... unique political ads I've ever seen.

Oh my God, I still remember that! So laughably bad.

[Morning in Atlas]

Lamb's campaign is already looking like a Major Yikes.

Ideally Fetterman and The Progressives hold his feet to the fire for this lack of support for Pelosi, since that's what seems to work best.

[Lognog]

That’s a lame announcement video, certainly not indicative of a candidate who’s likely to attract a ton of crossover appeal. Much like the R field for OH-SEN, I find the Democrats' bench here (especially Lamb, but also Fetterman) to be fairly unimpressive/overrated, especially given how dominant the two parties have been in their respective states (at the local level, at least). Really think the margins in both races (and most other competitive races, to be fair) will be near-identical to Biden's approval-dispproval spread.

You should see the video of the same announcement, but in Spanish. It's major Beto O'Rourke vibes:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1423620140449546243?s=20

“Pensilvania”

That’s like calling Oaxaca “Wahacka”

that part is silly but good on him for making this

[Morning in Atlas]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

[Pericles]

Lamb looks like a winning candidate. Logically a young, fresh candidate with his profile and moderate image is likely to do well. I don't think he'd be 'right-wing' or anything like that, hell he's promised to get rid of the filibuster and his messaging seems clear to me that he'll help get the Biden agenda through. The other candidates seem cool too, though I do wonder with Fetterman if he's too much of an upper-class stereotype of a working class person. I doubt it will matter much though, if it's a normal midterm the Republican wins by a few points. If 2022 is a surprisingly Democratic year, then maybe the nominee makes the difference between a 0.5% loss and a 0.5% win.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It’s reminding me of when Jon Ossoff announced. He might be “bland” to hyper partisans on Atlas but regular folks will eat his schtick up. He’s inoffensive to white people and is the exact type of white candidate old Black folks love. And when he’s in office he will vote like a mainstream Democrat and will never be the deciding vote that kills any Dem legislation. I’m here for it.

Ossoff underperformed Biden by 2 points in the first round, was saved by a runoff rule which does not apply to PA elections, ran in a state zooming leftward in which any Democratic statewide will be competitive regardless of the environment, and could count on a much, much more diverse electorate than Democrats in PA, who are still very reliant on holding their own in certain non-metropolitan regions. He also ran on enabling certain (select and popular) parts of the D agenda like stimulus checks, good luck with that after two years of complete Democratic control in Washington.

Ossoff being an "inoffensive white male" was never the reason he won that election—see: Warnock, Raphael winning by an even wider margin on the same day (even if it was against a 'weaker opponent'). Lamb running on "saving American democracy" in his first announcement video isn’t exactly the sign of an inoffensive white male who won’t activate partisan identity by enraging/vilifying the other side and completely nationalizing the race...

I said what I said.

[Calthrina950]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

Do you believe that Lamb would "stab Democrats in the back" like Sinema has? Or at least, how many have perceived her to have done?

[ctherainbow]

Well, there's 2/3 of the "they're definitely running for higher office" clan.  Now we just wait for Shapiro.  Planning to advocate for/vote for Kenyatta in the primary, but I won't be crushed if Lamb wins.  

Still don't understand why everyone keeps harping on about Lamb's district being "nuked" in redistricting, though:

- Wolf can veto, and the PASC will be either 5D/2R or 6D/1R after the November elections, so if they draw the maps, it's going to be at least somewhat Democratic favorable.

- While Western PA is experiencing massive population loss, Allegheny County (Democratic holdout in the area and home to the city of Pittsburgh), has shrunk by an estimated less than 1%.  Other neighboring (and far more Republican) counties like Westmoreland County are shrinking by more than 6x as much, which the exception of Butler County to the north.

- The current 18th District, which encompasses the city of Pittsburgh and other blue suburbs of Allegheny County, is around 70% Democratic.  The court could easily expand the current 18th out into redder suburban territory in Northern Allegheny, while slicing some blue off of the current 18th to give to Lamb's district (the 17th), balancing out the red territory the 17th will have to add during redistricting.

- The above works fine for Dems, as you could add only voting-age Republicans to the 18th to fill it out for redistricting, and the Dem would still have won by 90,000 votes in 2020.  A portion of the bluest suburbs could be transferred from the 18th to the 17th without endangering Dems in the 18th, and could keep Lamb's district at about the same PVI it's at now.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

[Morning in Atlas]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

Do you believe that Lamb would "stab Democrats in the back" like Sinema has? Or at least, how many have perceived her to have done?

I do. My position is that he says things, but with the way he campaigns, the reasons he's used to justify his votes, and the state's trend, I don't trust him.

[Calthrina950]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

Do you believe that Lamb would "stab Democrats in the back" like Sinema has? Or at least, how many have perceived her to have done?

I do. My position is that he says things, but with the way he campaigns, the reasons he's used to justify his votes, and the state's trend, I don't trust him.

Lamb seems to be trying to reposition himself as an "anti-Trump" liberal, judging from his announcement video. He seems to have shifted to the left compared to his earlier days as a Representative, but I suspect that's because he's trying to appeal to the Democratic primary base rather than Trump voters, as he did when he ran against Saccone.

[Continential]

In honor of today's news, may I present this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCiW-R5bY2k

One of the most... unique political ads I've ever seen.

I had to listen to that ad and the ad still is in my head.

[Morning in Atlas]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

Do you believe that Lamb would "stab Democrats in the back" like Sinema has? Or at least, how many have perceived her to have done?

I do. My position is that he says things, but with the way he campaigns, the reasons he's used to justify his votes, and the state's trend, I don't trust him.

Lamb seems to be trying to reposition himself as an "anti-Trump" liberal, judging from his announcement video. He seems to have shifted to the left compared to his earlier days as a Representative, but I suspect that's because he's trying to appeal to the Democratic primary base rather than Trump voters, as he did when he ran against Saccone.

This is essentially my position. Once he has to appeal to Trump voters again everything goes out the window.