PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Given Fetterman's top notch enthusiasm with young people, I wish he was doing this as well. Not even rallies, but at least appearances on campuses to juice out the gen Z vote.

https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/1578854971520712704

[Horus]

For a Trump +25 county, this is pretty damn huge.

Crowd sizes aren't everything, but Fetterman sure has the enthusiasm gap(TM) that Oz doesn't

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1578833425192349696

If it weren't for the signs and the one woman with bright yellow hair, this would look like a Trump event. I think Fetterman is building a very broad coalition.

[Calthrina950]

For a Trump +25 county, this is pretty damn huge.

Crowd sizes aren't everything, but Fetterman sure has the enthusiasm gap(TM) that Oz doesn't

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1578833425192349696

If it weren't for the signs and the one woman with bright yellow hair, this would look like a Trump event. I think Fetterman is building a very broad coalition.

Not entirely. There are a good number of people wearing masks in the audience. You wouldn't see any doing so at a Trump event. Democrats mask up at much higher rates than Republicans, as has been the case throughout the pandemic. That alone makes it clear to me that the composition of Fetterman's voters is different from that of Trump's, although I would agree that it is a broad coalition.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Biden got 88,000 votes in York County, so that means over a full percent of Biden 2020 voters went to that rally.

[Mr. Matt]

Did my part to atone for my original sin of living in the same state as the quack Senate nominee and graduating from the same high school as the fasting gubernatorial nominee and got some canvassing done in Bristol Twp., Bucks today (probably hit about 40 homes).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1578460651336376320

[Devout Centrist]

Wow, Donna Brazile backing the losing candidate once again. You hate to see it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wow, Donna Brazile backing the losing candidate once again. You hate to see it.

She's not backing Dr. Oz lol, she's more so criticizing Fetterman's campaign strategy as she notoriously does for a lot of Dems

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Wow, Donna Brazile backing the losing candidate once again. You hate to see it.

At the Chamber of Commerce dinner too.

What a sad, pathetic woman!

[ProgressiveModerate]

For a Trump +25 county, this is pretty damn huge.

Crowd sizes aren't everything, but Fetterman sure has the enthusiasm gap(TM) that Oz doesn't

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1578833425192349696

If it weren't for the signs and the one woman with bright yellow hair, this would look like a Trump event. I think Fetterman is building a very broad coalition.

Tbf York is overall pretty white and basically any rally tends to skew older. Anecdotal but his rally turnouts are a good sign, especially when compared to Dr. Oz.

I also think it's important to remember that well to do anti-Trump Republican suburbanites are not the only swing voters and that not only is Fetterman overperforming in rural areas very possible, but an important part of his path to victory.

[Calthrina950]

Wow, Donna Brazile backing the losing candidate once again. You hate to see it.

She's not backing Dr. Oz lol, she's more so criticizing Fetterman's campaign strategy as she notoriously does for a lot of Dems

Donna Brazile is a very partisan and very loyal Democrat, and is very enthusiastic about her party's prospects. But she does have some common sense, and this is certainly an example of this. I caught "bits and pieces" of Dr. Oz's show when it was on the air, and many of his most ardent fans were black women. Why this was, aside from his association with Oprah, I don't entirely know. That's why (along with Fetterman's jogging incident) I think Philadelphia will swing to Oz and that he will do better among black voters than Toomey, although the black vote will still go overwhelmingly for Fetterman.

[Brittain33]

Anyone else remember when Donna Brazile releasing a book critical of Dems in November 2017 was going to doom Ralph Northam?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Wow, Donna Brazile backing the losing candidate once again. You hate to see it.

She's not backing Dr. Oz lol, she's more so criticizing Fetterman's campaign strategy as she notoriously does for a lot of Dems

Donna Brazile is a very partisan and very loyal Democrat, and is very enthusiastic about her party's prospects. But she does have some common sense, and this is certainly an example of this. I caught "bits and pieces" of Dr. Oz's show when it was on the air, and many of his most ardent fans were black women. Why this was, aside from his association with Oprah, I don't entirely know. That's why (along with Fetterman's jogging incident) I think Philadelphia will swing to Oz and that he will do better among black voters than Toomey, although the black vote will still go overwhelmingly for Fetterman.

Which makes it more obvious why she's attacking Fetterman. Fetterman disrupts the gravy train that she helped build. It's very fitting that - again - she said this at a literal Chamber of Commerce dinner.

[kwabbit]

For a Trump +25 county, this is pretty damn huge.

Crowd sizes aren't everything, but Fetterman sure has the enthusiasm gap(TM) that Oz doesn't

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1578833425192349696

If it weren't for the signs and the one woman with bright yellow hair, this would look like a Trump event. I think Fetterman is building a very broad coalition.

Tbf York is overall pretty white and basically any rally tends to skew older. Anecdotal but his rally turnouts are a good sign, especially when compared to Dr. Oz.

I also think it's important to remember that well to do anti-Trump Republican suburbanites are not the only swing voters and that not only is Fetterman overperforming in rural areas very possible, but an important part of his path to victory.

York isn't exactly rural though. South Central PA is a place that has always been Republican; it's one of the areas outside the Philly/PGH metros where we would expect the least amount of Trump/Fetterman voters. Exurban blobs like SWPA aren't where Fetterman will live or die, it's more the small metros/micros that used to be anchored by a strongly Dem small city. Altoona, Johnstown, Indiana, the counties on the Ohio border all have a decent amount of votes and can be more readily captured by Dems. Shapiro overperformed Biden the most in these counties. Then of course NEPA, but that's more obvious. The Dem collapse in the aforementioned counties has been as responsible for GOP gains than the more conspicuous flips of areas like Luzerne.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For a Trump +25 county, this is pretty damn huge.

Crowd sizes aren't everything, but Fetterman sure has the enthusiasm gap(TM) that Oz doesn't

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1578833425192349696

If it weren't for the signs and the one woman with bright yellow hair, this would look like a Trump event. I think Fetterman is building a very broad coalition.

Tbf York is overall pretty white and basically any rally tends to skew older. Anecdotal but his rally turnouts are a good sign, especially when compared to Dr. Oz.

I also think it's important to remember that well to do anti-Trump Republican suburbanites are not the only swing voters and that not only is Fetterman overperforming in rural areas very possible, but an important part of his path to victory.

York isn't exactly rural though. South Central PA is a place that has always been Republican; it's one of the areas outside the Philly/PGH metros where we would expect the least amount of Trump/Fetterman voters. Exurban blobs like SWPA aren't where Fetterman will live or die, it's more the small metros/micros that used to be anchored by a strongly Dem small city. Altoona, Johnstown, Indiana, the counties on the Ohio border all have a decent amount of votes and can be more readily captured by Dems. Shapiro overperformed Biden the most in these counties. Then of course NEPA, but that's more obvious. The Dem collapse in the aforementioned counties has been as responsible for GOP gains than the more conspicuous flips of areas like Luzerne.

South Central PA is really weird because it feels like really dense rurals or arguably exurbs of the northeast corridor? It has several mid-sized cities that are all relatively close together (Lancaster, York, Harrisburg, Reading), all of which seem to ground various parts of the area. Gives off Northeast Ohio Vibes except much less "dying working class areas".

If Democrats could find a way to make this area basically net even, it would be a huge problem for the GOP, but as of now I don't really see their path to doing that short term or long term.

I agree though the most intense overperformances from Fetterman relative to Biden's performance will prolly be in Western/Southwestern PA and NEPA around Scranton.

[kwabbit]

For a Trump +25 county, this is pretty damn huge.

Crowd sizes aren't everything, but Fetterman sure has the enthusiasm gap(TM) that Oz doesn't

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1578833425192349696

If it weren't for the signs and the one woman with bright yellow hair, this would look like a Trump event. I think Fetterman is building a very broad coalition.

Tbf York is overall pretty white and basically any rally tends to skew older. Anecdotal but his rally turnouts are a good sign, especially when compared to Dr. Oz.

I also think it's important to remember that well to do anti-Trump Republican suburbanites are not the only swing voters and that not only is Fetterman overperforming in rural areas very possible, but an important part of his path to victory.

York isn't exactly rural though. South Central PA is a place that has always been Republican; it's one of the areas outside the Philly/PGH metros where we would expect the least amount of Trump/Fetterman voters. Exurban blobs like SWPA aren't where Fetterman will live or die, it's more the small metros/micros that used to be anchored by a strongly Dem small city. Altoona, Johnstown, Indiana, the counties on the Ohio border all have a decent amount of votes and can be more readily captured by Dems. Shapiro overperformed Biden the most in these counties. Then of course NEPA, but that's more obvious. The Dem collapse in the aforementioned counties has been as responsible for GOP gains than the more conspicuous flips of areas like Luzerne.

South Central PA is really weird because it feels like really dense rurals or arguably exurbs of the northeast corridor? It has several mid-sized cities that are all relatively close together (Lancaster, York, Harrisburg, Reading), all of which seem to ground various parts of the area. Gives off Northeast Ohio Vibes except much less "dying working class areas".

If Democrats could find a way to make this area basically net even, it would be a huge problem for the GOP, but as of now I don't really see their path to doing that short term or long term.

I agree though the most intense overperformances from Fetterman relative to Biden's performance will prolly be in Western/Southwestern PA and NEPA around Scranton.

In the Northeast and other dense areas (maybe the Bay or SoCal) you can get these suburb of a suburb type areas. They aren’t close enough to commute but they’re close to enough where a day trip is still possible. A lot of NJ is like this. Few people in my town commute to NYC or Philly; they instead commute to certain suburbs that function as more regional hubs along commuter highways. There are a lot of office parks in Southern Middlesex County, because it arguably captures more people within a commutable distance than an office in NYC or Philly would. The same is true in York County, where people can be near enough to Harrisburg, Baltimore, and Philly.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman doing a rally in Bucks today; we'll see how big it is. He did 1K in Lehigh Valley a few weeks ago but his biggest rally was still the 3K+ at the Montco one, which to me shows the narrative about him not having as much suburban strength is not really panning out.

Also, he was with Shapiro at a small event in Delco on Saturday. Hopefully we'll still see some more major campaigning together-

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1578784006715617280

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this week was about Oz's puppies story and now him with Hitler's car, I'd say the "momentum" is over.

Was out to dinner last night and they actually had the local ABC affiliate on. Saw a ton of ads, but was slightly more Fetterman leaning. They aired the Senate Majority PAC ad about Oz "abortion is murder" twice and Fetterman's ad with the DSCC about crime. Oz's ad ran twice -the new one with Jim Gardner where he talks about Fetterman and safe injection sites.

Neither of these stories will have any impact outside of the Resistance Twitter networks y'all are addicted to.

this aged like milk

https://twitter.com/RebeccaKKatz/status/1579059132069732352

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Don't mind our resident Oz simp, wb. It'll all be that much sweeter seeing them eat a bowl of sh*t.

[kwabbit]

Yeah, this week was about Oz's puppies story and now him with Hitler's car, I'd say the "momentum" is over.

Was out to dinner last night and they actually had the local ABC affiliate on. Saw a ton of ads, but was slightly more Fetterman leaning. They aired the Senate Majority PAC ad about Oz "abortion is murder" twice and Fetterman's ad with the DSCC about crime. Oz's ad ran twice -the new one with Jim Gardner where he talks about Fetterman and safe injection sites.

Neither of these stories will have any impact outside of the Resistance Twitter networks y'all are addicted to.

this aged like milk

https://twitter.com/RebeccaKKatz/status/1579059132069732352

SNL is part of the resistance twitter network for all intents and purposes lol. It’s the perfect subject for SNL to make a few jokes about, but has any cable network spent more than a few minutes on it? Herschel Walker’s story is getting substantial national coverage; that’s why it’s perceived as an impactful scandal.

[wbrocks67]

1200+ people out today in Bucks

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1579183258515881985

[ProgressiveModerate]

1200+ people out today in Bucks

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1579183258515881985

What segment of Bucks is this? Bucks County is pretty high population so particuarly if this is in the area closer to Philly, that isn't anything super impressive.

[wbrocks67]

1200+ people out today in Bucks

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1579183258515881985

What segment of Bucks is this? Bucks County is pretty high population so particuarly if this is in the area closer to Philly, that isn't anything super impressive.

Bristol.

[Brittain33]

Has Oz drawn a crowd anywhere of any size?

[Sestak]

Those in PA: What exactly have Fetterman's camp et al been running on the airwaves?  Political news has jumped between a bunch of stuff over the last few weeks; what's the narrative the actual campaign is going with?