PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[UncleSam]

If you're being reduced to calling your competitor "pro murderer" then idk what is really going on with your campaign, and you shouldn't be taken seriously

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1574392332652351489

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

....okay? If you think this is a good campaign strategy, feel free to defend it and/or him.

For one, I think that this statement on Fox was just predictable and an average soft on crime line of attack meant to appeal to the Fox News viewer base. It certainly wasn’t a bad strategy lol, though I’d not call it good either, just the epitome of meh.

For two, I can’t take anything you say seriously when every single thing an R says or does elicits some combination of ‘wow that’s desperate’ ‘no clue what this campaign is doing’ ‘total free fall’ ‘this can’t be taken seriously’ ‘if they’re stopping to THIS LEVEL’ etc. takes from you.

To be clear, plenty of strategies or things Rs have said this season are dumb and / or bad political strategy. But you reply to every single news story with the same tired takes, which makes it impossible to take you seriously. Absolutely nothing about what Oz said was weird or out of the ordinary and will not move any votes either way, so I have no clue why you felt the need to post about it as an example of Oz floundering or not being a serious campaign or blah blah blah blah blah.

[MT Treasurer]

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

I strongly recommend to you what another user on here recommended to me via PM — a more liberal use of the 'hard ignore' option (not 'soft ignore') for posters who aren’t interested in actual discussion and view this space as their personal echo chamber, place for name-calling, etc. I was hesitant to make use of this at first, but it’s pretty clear that it’s by far the best way to deal with the most 'vocal' posters in particular. It really enhances your forum experience, and you really don’t miss out on anything.

[wbrocks67]

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

I strongly recommend to you what another user on here recommended to me via PM — a more liberal use of the 'hard ignore' option (not 'soft ignore') for posters who aren’t interested in actual discussion and view this space as their personal echo chamber, place for name-calling, etc. I was hesitant to make use of this at first, but it’s pretty clear that it’s by far the best way to deal with the most 'vocal' posters in particular. It really enhances your forum experience, and you really don’t miss out on anything.

Echo chamber? The pottle calling the kettle black here...

[GALeftist]

I will never understand what the incentive structures are to ignore reality in a race and insist that your chosen candidate is running an amazing campaign when anyone can see that that isn't the case. This is Atlas, you're not going to harm the Oz campaign by admitting that he's a bad candidate.

[kwabbit]

If you're being reduced to calling your competitor "pro murderer" then idk what is really going on with your campaign, and you shouldn't be taken seriously

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1574392332652351489

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

....okay? If you think this is a good campaign strategy, feel free to defend it and/or him.

For one, I think that this statement on Fox was just predictable and an average soft on crime line of attack meant to appeal to the Fox News viewer base. It certainly wasn’t a bad strategy lol, though I’d not call it good either, just the epitome of meh.

For two, I can’t take anything you say seriously when every single thing an R says or does elicits some combination of ‘wow that’s desperate’ ‘no clue what this campaign is doing’ ‘total free fall’ ‘this can’t be taken seriously’ ‘if they’re stopping to THIS LEVEL’ etc. takes from you.

To be clear, plenty of strategies or things Rs have said this season are dumb and / or bad political strategy. But you reply to every single news story with the same tired takes, which makes it impossible to take you seriously. Absolutely nothing about what Oz said was weird or out of the ordinary and will not move any votes either way, so I have no clue why you felt the need to post about it as an example of Oz floundering or not being a serious campaign or blah blah blah blah blah.

I used to find wbrocks67 bothersome but he’s grown on me. His complete and utter inability to see how something could be for the GOP/ bad for the Dems is extremely impressive. I thought he would get a reality check in 2020, but nope. He’s just a happy warrior at heart and it’s becoming endearing to me.

[Spectator]

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

I strongly recommend to you what another user on here recommended to me via PM — a more liberal use of the 'hard ignore' option (not 'soft ignore') for posters who aren’t interested in actual discussion and view this space as their personal echo chamber, place for name-calling, etc. I was hesitant to make use of this at first, but it’s pretty clear that it’s by far the best way to deal with the most 'vocal' posters in particular. It really enhances your forum experience, and you really don’t miss out on anything.

Echo chamber? The pottle calling the kettle black here...

How is MT an echo chamber? It’s not like he’s predicting blanket Republican wins in every semi-competitive race.

[kwabbit]

I used to find wbrocks67 bothersome but he’s grown on me. His complete and utter inability to see how something could be for the GOP/ bad for the Dems is extremely impressive. I thought he would get a reality check in 2020, but nope. He’s just a happy warrior at heart and it’s becoming endearing to me.

But I thought that it had already "become endearing"?

I used to be frustrated with him a lot given how tedious his posts are, but he's just so comfortable in his delusions that it's become endearing. For the rest of time Wbrocks67 will unskew polls regardless of how often that's failed in the past, and it's amounting to kind of a cute perseverance.

Excuse my tenses lol. During this cycle, I’ve increasingly liked him. I await each sure Jan on a Budd +1 poll and every implication that the Fetterman +8 poll is an underestimation because the 14 person Hispanic sub sample split 7-7.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/Sultan4Oz/status/1573840927961088004

Only mildly surprised that no one has posted this (or perhaps I missed), but as a pretty strong critic of dual citizenship—for private individuals, let alone public servants—I have to admit softened me up on the man. Smart of him to attack his biggest issue head on and undercut the dogwhistle campaign against him.

I think the election would be Tilt D if held today but also that the momentum is in Oz's favor. He continues to run a strong campaign against a weak opponent but could still very well lose due to factors out of his control (his heritage, religion, and Doug Mastriano).

This is a nice video and good story. Thinking politically I really hope for Oz's campaign's sake that everything he said here is true and will survive the inevitable review of the detail-obsessed Democratic oppo researcher - this has the potential to explode in their faces. You'd think this isn't something that somebody would embellish but nobody has ever lost money betting on the psychopathy of some politicians.

[wbrocks67]

If you're being reduced to calling your competitor "pro murderer" then idk what is really going on with your campaign, and you shouldn't be taken seriously

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1574392332652351489

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

....okay? If you think this is a good campaign strategy, feel free to defend it and/or him.

For one, I think that this statement on Fox was just predictable and an average soft on crime line of attack meant to appeal to the Fox News viewer base. It certainly wasn’t a bad strategy lol, though I’d not call it good either, just the epitome of meh.

For two, I can’t take anything you say seriously when every single thing an R says or does elicits some combination of ‘wow that’s desperate’ ‘no clue what this campaign is doing’ ‘total free fall’ ‘this can’t be taken seriously’ ‘if they’re stopping to THIS LEVEL’ etc. takes from you.

To be clear, plenty of strategies or things Rs have said this season are dumb and / or bad political strategy. But you reply to every single news story with the same tired takes, which makes it impossible to take you seriously. Absolutely nothing about what Oz said was weird or out of the ordinary and will not move any votes either way, so I have no clue why you felt the need to post about it as an example of Oz floundering or not being a serious campaign or blah blah blah blah blah.

I used to find wbrocks67 bothersome but he’s grown on me. His complete and utter inability to see how something could be for the GOP/ bad for the Dems is extremely impressive. I thought he would get a reality check in 2020, but nope. He’s just a happy warrior at heart and it’s becoming endearing to me.

This is incredibly condescending but okay.  I don't have an issue with anyone on this forum and yet people continue to attack me. We're all allowed to have opinions here.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Sultan4Oz/status/1573840927961088004

Only mildly surprised that no one has posted this (or perhaps I missed), but as a pretty strong critic of dual citizenship—for private individuals, let alone public servants—I have to admit softened me up on the man. Smart of him to attack his biggest issue head on and undercut the dogwhistle campaign against him.

I think the election would be Tilt D if held today but also that the momentum is in Oz's favor. He continues to run a strong campaign against a weak opponent but could still very well lose due to factors out of his control (his heritage, religion, and Doug Mastriano).

The only people who made dual citizenship/the Turkey stuff an issue were other... Republicans in the primary. Democrats haven't touched it, b/c no one cares.

[It’s so Joever]

If you're being reduced to calling your competitor "pro murderer" then idk what is really going on with your campaign, and you shouldn't be taken seriously

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1574392332652351489

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

....okay? If you think this is a good campaign strategy, feel free to defend it and/or him.

For one, I think that this statement on Fox was just predictable and an average soft on crime line of attack meant to appeal to the Fox News viewer base. It certainly wasn’t a bad strategy lol, though I’d not call it good either, just the epitome of meh.

For two, I can’t take anything you say seriously when every single thing an R says or does elicits some combination of ‘wow that’s desperate’ ‘no clue what this campaign is doing’ ‘total free fall’ ‘this can’t be taken seriously’ ‘if they’re stopping to THIS LEVEL’ etc. takes from you.

To be clear, plenty of strategies or things Rs have said this season are dumb and / or bad political strategy. But you reply to every single news story with the same tired takes, which makes it impossible to take you seriously. Absolutely nothing about what Oz said was weird or out of the ordinary and will not move any votes either way, so I have no clue why you felt the need to post about it as an example of Oz floundering or not being a serious campaign or blah blah blah blah blah.

I used to find wbrocks67 bothersome but he’s grown on me. His complete and utter inability to see how something could be for the GOP/ bad for the Dems is extremely impressive. I thought he would get a reality check in 2020, but nope. He’s just a happy warrior at heart and it’s becoming endearing to me.

This is incredibly condescending but okay.  I don't have an issue with anyone on this forum and yet people continue to attack me. We're all allowed to have opinions here.

Cope. It’s your own fault for being a ridiculous D chance hack.

[GALeftist]

Anyways, I'd like to take this thread back down to reality and say that not much has changed here. One big reason for this is that, even if you can see some pro-Oz movement in the polling if you squint (which imo comes with a big asterisk, if it exists at all, and still hasn't managed to get Oz a lead in a poll so far), the Mastriano campaign has imploded to a degree which I suspect no one but legit Dem wishcasters foresaw. The man is barely campaigning. This is important because Oz remains unpopular with the base, and that's likely to at least have negative implications for Republican turnout vs. Democratic turnout (some suppositions to the contrary notwithstanding, I have yet to see even a smidgen of data suggesting that Fetterman is unpopular with the Democratic base). Despite all my memeing about Elk County, it's also not impossible that Fetterman just straight up cuts into Oz's margins in important GOP counties. Just look at PA-SEN 2016: Toomey was held to a <2 point win despite winning Bucks, Dauphin, and even Chester precisely because McGinty cut into his margins in now-crucial GOP areas like NEPA and Greater Pittsburgh. And McGinty was hardly a WWC whisperer!

Oz's answer to this quandary, or so I have been told, was that the base would at least show up to vote for Mastriano, who they do legitimately seem to like, and vote for Oz while they were at it. It's possible, for example, that this dynamic with Trump might have saved Toomey in 2016. However, as the days tick by and Mastriano continues to flounder, that dynamic looks like an increasingly small part of the picture. So I'm left wondering, even if I accept that some things are going Oz's way (which, again, I'm not sure that this isn't just wishful thinking), isn't it true that his having to build his own credibility with the base rather than free riding off Mastriano's, along with the PAGOP's seemingly having punted on the gubernatorial race all together, are detriments which have only gotten worse?

To be clear, in my mind, this race remains Tilt D, closer to Lean than Tossup. At the end of the day, it is still a midterm, and it is not unprecedented or even unusual for subpar candidates to skate by through sheer fundamentals. Oz could very much still win. But my thinking is, when one candidate has obvious detriments with respect to the base, has failed to lead a single poll since winning the primary, and their best points in their favor are that they're losing polls by single digits now as opposed to double and a supposed suburban appeal which might not exist and which might not be enough to win anyway – well, it's obvious who's favored.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you're being reduced to calling your competitor "pro murderer" then idk what is really going on with your campaign, and you shouldn't be taken seriously

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1574392332652351489

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

....okay? If you think this is a good campaign strategy, feel free to defend it and/or him.

For one, I think that this statement on Fox was just predictable and an average soft on crime line of attack meant to appeal to the Fox News viewer base. It certainly wasn’t a bad strategy lol, though I’d not call it good either, just the epitome of meh.

For two, I can’t take anything you say seriously when every single thing an R says or does elicits some combination of ‘wow that’s desperate’ ‘no clue what this campaign is doing’ ‘total free fall’ ‘this can’t be taken seriously’ ‘if they’re stopping to THIS LEVEL’ etc. takes from you.

To be clear, plenty of strategies or things Rs have said this season are dumb and / or bad political strategy. But you reply to every single news story with the same tired takes, which makes it impossible to take you seriously. Absolutely nothing about what Oz said was weird or out of the ordinary and will not move any votes either way, so I have no clue why you felt the need to post about it as an example of Oz floundering or not being a serious campaign or blah blah blah blah blah.

I used to find wbrocks67 bothersome but he’s grown on me. His complete and utter inability to see how something could be for the GOP/ bad for the Dems is extremely impressive. I thought he would get a reality check in 2020, but nope. He’s just a happy warrior at heart and it’s becoming endearing to me.

This is incredibly condescending but okay.  I don't have an issue with anyone on this forum and yet people continue to attack me. We're all allowed to have opinions here.

Cope. It’s your own fault for being a ridiculous D chance hack.

Play nice, y'all.

[kwabbit]

If you're being reduced to calling your competitor "pro murderer" then idk what is really going on with your campaign, and you shouldn't be taken seriously

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1574392332652351489

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

....okay? If you think this is a good campaign strategy, feel free to defend it and/or him.

For one, I think that this statement on Fox was just predictable and an average soft on crime line of attack meant to appeal to the Fox News viewer base. It certainly wasn’t a bad strategy lol, though I’d not call it good either, just the epitome of meh.

For two, I can’t take anything you say seriously when every single thing an R says or does elicits some combination of ‘wow that’s desperate’ ‘no clue what this campaign is doing’ ‘total free fall’ ‘this can’t be taken seriously’ ‘if they’re stopping to THIS LEVEL’ etc. takes from you.

To be clear, plenty of strategies or things Rs have said this season are dumb and / or bad political strategy. But you reply to every single news story with the same tired takes, which makes it impossible to take you seriously. Absolutely nothing about what Oz said was weird or out of the ordinary and will not move any votes either way, so I have no clue why you felt the need to post about it as an example of Oz floundering or not being a serious campaign or blah blah blah blah blah.

I used to find wbrocks67 bothersome but he’s grown on me. His complete and utter inability to see how something could be for the GOP/ bad for the Dems is extremely impressive. I thought he would get a reality check in 2020, but nope. He’s just a happy warrior at heart and it’s becoming endearing to me.

This is incredibly condescending but okay.  I don't have an issue with anyone on this forum and yet people continue to attack me. We're all allowed to have opinions here.

Dude, I like you as a poster and think you contribute positively overall, but I’ve read thousands of your posts and I don’t think you’ve ever said commented that something could be a positive for the GOP. Are you unaware of that pattern?

You’re just so prolific and so one note that it dominates the polling subforums. It feels like every post is either your own or a direct or indirect rebuttal to your very optimistic for Dems viewpoint.

[kwabbit]

Anyways, I'd like to take this thread back down to reality and say that not much has changed here. One big reason for this is that, even if you can see some pro-Oz movement in the polling if you squint (which imo comes with a big asterisk, if it exists at all, and still hasn't managed to get Oz a lead in a poll so far), the Mastriano campaign has imploded to a degree which I suspect no one but legit Dem wishcasters foresaw. The man is barely campaigning. This is important because Oz remains unpopular with the base, and that's likely to at least have negative implications for Republican turnout vs. Democratic turnout (some suppositions to the contrary notwithstanding, I have yet to see even a smidgen of data suggesting that Fetterman is unpopular with the Democratic base). Despite all my memeing about Elk County, it's also not impossible that Fetterman just straight up cuts into Oz's margins in important GOP counties. Just look at PA-SEN 2016: Toomey was held to a <2 point win despite winning Bucks, Dauphin, and even Chester precisely because McGinty cut into his margins in now-crucial GOP areas like NEPA and Greater Pittsburgh. And McGinty was hardly a WWC whisperer!

Oz's answer to this quandary, or so I have been told, was that the base would at least show up to vote for Mastriano, who they do legitimately seem to like, and vote for Oz while they were at it. It's possible, for example, that this dynamic with Trump might have saved Toomey in 2016. However, as the days tick by and Mastriano continues to flounder, that dynamic looks like an increasingly small part of the picture. So I'm left wondering, even if I accept that some things are going Oz's way (which, again, I'm not sure that this isn't just wishful thinking), isn't it true that his having to build his own credibility with the base rather than free riding off Mastriano's, along with the PAGOP's seemingly having punted on the gubernatorial race all together, are detriments which have only gotten worse?

To be clear, in my mind, this race remains Tilt D, closer to Lean than Tossup. At the end of the day, it is still a midterm, and it is not unprecedented or even unusual for subpar candidates to skate by through sheer fundamentals. Oz could very much still win. But my thinking is, when one candidate has obvious detriments with respect to the base, has failed to lead a single poll since winning the primary, and their best points in their favor are that they're losing polls by single digits now as opposed to double and a supposed suburban appeal which might not exist and which might not be enough to win anyway – well, it's obvious who's favored.

The gap between Oz and Mastriano grows by the day. I think Oz has recovered by a few points, although he’s still clearly trailing Fetterman by a decent margin.

Oz must hope that Mastriano can serve as the lighting rod for anti-GOP sentiment and that he can look reasonable in comparison. If there are a lot of voters who view both parties unfavorably, there could be a lot of vote splitters where Biden disapproving independents can protect abortion rights and punish election denialism in voting for Shapiro and punish Biden for the economy by voting for Oz.

I think this is why congressional Republicans did well down ballot under Trump but worse on their own. When Trump was on the ballot, swing voters could discharge their anger by voting for Biden and then feel more comfortable voting R down ballot.

[GALeftist]

Anyways, I'd like to take this thread back down to reality and say that not much has changed here. One big reason for this is that, even if you can see some pro-Oz movement in the polling if you squint (which imo comes with a big asterisk, if it exists at all, and still hasn't managed to get Oz a lead in a poll so far), the Mastriano campaign has imploded to a degree which I suspect no one but legit Dem wishcasters foresaw. The man is barely campaigning. This is important because Oz remains unpopular with the base, and that's likely to at least have negative implications for Republican turnout vs. Democratic turnout (some suppositions to the contrary notwithstanding, I have yet to see even a smidgen of data suggesting that Fetterman is unpopular with the Democratic base). Despite all my memeing about Elk County, it's also not impossible that Fetterman just straight up cuts into Oz's margins in important GOP counties. Just look at PA-SEN 2016: Toomey was held to a <2 point win despite winning Bucks, Dauphin, and even Chester precisely because McGinty cut into his margins in now-crucial GOP areas like NEPA and Greater Pittsburgh. And McGinty was hardly a WWC whisperer!

Oz's answer to this quandary, or so I have been told, was that the base would at least show up to vote for Mastriano, who they do legitimately seem to like, and vote for Oz while they were at it. It's possible, for example, that this dynamic with Trump might have saved Toomey in 2016. However, as the days tick by and Mastriano continues to flounder, that dynamic looks like an increasingly small part of the picture. So I'm left wondering, even if I accept that some things are going Oz's way (which, again, I'm not sure that this isn't just wishful thinking), isn't it true that his having to build his own credibility with the base rather than free riding off Mastriano's, along with the PAGOP's seemingly having punted on the gubernatorial race all together, are detriments which have only gotten worse?

To be clear, in my mind, this race remains Tilt D, closer to Lean than Tossup. At the end of the day, it is still a midterm, and it is not unprecedented or even unusual for subpar candidates to skate by through sheer fundamentals. Oz could very much still win. But my thinking is, when one candidate has obvious detriments with respect to the base, has failed to lead a single poll since winning the primary, and their best points in their favor are that they're losing polls by single digits now as opposed to double and a supposed suburban appeal which might not exist and which might not be enough to win anyway – well, it's obvious who's favored.

The gap between Oz and Mastriano grows by the day. I think Oz has recovered by a few points, although he’s still clearly trailing Fetterman by a decent margin.

Oz must hope that Mastriano can serve as the lighting rod for anti-GOP sentiment and that he can look reasonable in comparison. If there are a lot of voters who view both parties unfavorably, there could be a lot of vote splitters where Biden disapproving independents can protect abortion rights and punish election denialism in voting for Shapiro and punish Biden for the economy by voting for Oz.

I think this is why congressional Republicans did well down ballot under Trump but worse on their own. When Trump was on the ballot, swing voters could discharge their anger by voting for Biden and then feel more comfortable voting R down ballot.

Perhaps, but then again, if Oz is sufficiently unpopular then they could achieve that "balance" by voting GOP for House races (or, in the case of the Republican base, perhaps even governor). This seems like a plausible turn of events to me but far from the modal outcome as of now pending more data.

[wbrocks67]

If you're being reduced to calling your competitor "pro murderer" then idk what is really going on with your campaign, and you shouldn't be taken seriously

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1574392332652351489

I am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you think Dr. Oz should not be taken seriously. A searing indictment of his campaign and truly a death knell for Republicans nationwide.

....okay? If you think this is a good campaign strategy, feel free to defend it and/or him.

For one, I think that this statement on Fox was just predictable and an average soft on crime line of attack meant to appeal to the Fox News viewer base. It certainly wasn’t a bad strategy lol, though I’d not call it good either, just the epitome of meh.

For two, I can’t take anything you say seriously when every single thing an R says or does elicits some combination of ‘wow that’s desperate’ ‘no clue what this campaign is doing’ ‘total free fall’ ‘this can’t be taken seriously’ ‘if they’re stopping to THIS LEVEL’ etc. takes from you.

To be clear, plenty of strategies or things Rs have said this season are dumb and / or bad political strategy. But you reply to every single news story with the same tired takes, which makes it impossible to take you seriously. Absolutely nothing about what Oz said was weird or out of the ordinary and will not move any votes either way, so I have no clue why you felt the need to post about it as an example of Oz floundering or not being a serious campaign or blah blah blah blah blah.

I used to find wbrocks67 bothersome but he’s grown on me. His complete and utter inability to see how something could be for the GOP/ bad for the Dems is extremely impressive. I thought he would get a reality check in 2020, but nope. He’s just a happy warrior at heart and it’s becoming endearing to me.

This is incredibly condescending but okay.  I don't have an issue with anyone on this forum and yet people continue to attack me. We're all allowed to have opinions here.

Dude, I like you as a poster and think you contribute positively overall, but I’ve read thousands of your posts and I don’t think you’ve ever said commented that something could be a positive for the GOP. Are you unaware of that pattern?

You’re just so prolific and so one note that it dominates the polling subforums. It feels like every post is either your own or a direct or indirect rebuttal to your very optimistic for Dems viewpoint.

There's been plenty of times where I've been honest about something bad about a Dem or whoever. Just because I have a different point of view, it's a problem? I don't get why people are so bothered by my POV. There's plenty of other people who do the same thing here for either side. I don't try and make things rosier than they are; I think it's hilarious that I get called out for something like calling Oz a terrible candidate when that is the average viewpoint.

I don't have a problem with you, and didn't think you had a problem with me. I just think it's funny how some posters (others, not you) are so damn obsessed with what I post.

[DaleCooper]

Oz does have a benefit that Mastriano doesn't and that's that governors are still, even in 2022, seen as less of a partisan choice than Senators are. There are a lot more people who want a particular party to control the Senate than there are people who desperately want a person from a particular party to be in the governor's mansion, so that on its own will help Oz amongst the base.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1574518622961164322

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If there is a decent amount of crossover with the moderate suburbanites Oz should be okay. The effect is probably muted in Pittsburgh but Philadelphia is much bigger. The big question is how many people in Philly metro area will Shapiro/Oz voters? The biggest worry for Oz is how many people in Western PA go Mastriano/Fetterman. Oz doesn't need to exceed Trumps margin in those counties but he needs to be able to match them at least.

[Morning in Atlas]

It's not a bad campaign strategy, but is Oz really preaching to any swing voters on Fox?

[Senator Incitatus]

It's not a bad campaign strategy, but is Oz really preaching to any swing voters on Fox?

I think you'd probably be surprised by the diversity of thought among cable news viewers of any channel. Sure, Fox viewers are disproportionately Republican and MSNBC's are disproportionately Democratic, but there is a fair amount of crossover. Fox in particular doesn't draw its large viewership from nowhere and is broadcast in a lot of places (restaurants, barbershops, etc.) as background ambience.

Plus, it's always a good idea to put your face in front of people who already agree with you to remind them to turn out.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It's not a bad campaign strategy, but is Oz really preaching to any swing voters on Fox?

I think you'd probably be surprised by the diversity of thought among cable news viewers of any channel. Sure, Fox viewers are disproportionately Republican and MSNBC's are disproportionately Democratic, but there is a fair amount of crossover. Fox in particular doesn't draw its large viewership from nowhere and is broadcast in a lot of places (restaurants, barbershops, etc.) as background ambience.

Plus, it's always a good idea to put your face in front of people who already agree with you to remind them to turn out.

Is Oz hoping Mastriano helps him with the MAGA base while he appeals to the more suburban/exurban McCormick folks?

[UncleSam]

It’s funny that Mastriano will almost certainly be a huge part of the reason Oz loses, assuming he does. For a while it really seemed like the reverse was more likely, but credit to Oz for fighting hard every day and campaigning and getting his face out there while Mastriano has just sat around doing nothing.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It’s funny that Mastriano will almost certainly be a huge part of the reason Oz loses, assuming he does. For a while it really seemed like the reverse was more likely, but credit to Oz for fighting hard every day and campaigning and getting his face out there while Mastriano has just sat around doing nothing.

What do you mean? Mastriano has been a top surrogate for Shapiro.