PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Pollster]

Side note - have you heard anything about this race?

The dynamic is very similar to Ryan/Vance in Ohio - unpopular Republicans struggling with right-leaning voters who are mostly coming in undecided. Difference of course is that Fetterman/Shapiro have a more favorable playing field in terms of the partisanship of the state (and like Ryan have gotten a strong head start on swing voters). It's absolutely not going to be a landslide though, and well-informed/non-casual observers who believe it will be are unserious.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1567956665751818243

1. Imagine if a Democrat said this.

2. Oz is not an immigrant.

Nikki Haley is out of her depth. The Republican base doesn't particularly like her, and any crossover appeal to Democrats she had, arising from the Charleston shooting, was eliminated by her service in the Trump Administration.

She's yesterday's news.

True, and there's also this photograph of her with Oz at that campaign rally:

https://twitter.com/Andres__Weller/status/1567957915440496640

That crowd certainly isn't diverse, and seems to be composed mostly of middle aged to older white people. That's not the kind of coalition that will help Oz win.

An incredibly diverse crowd! /s

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Side note - have you heard anything about this race?

The dynamic is very similar to Ryan/Vance in Ohio - unpopular Republicans struggling with right-leaning voters who are mostly coming in undecided. Difference of course is that Fetterman/Shapiro have a more favorable playing field in terms of the partisanship of the state (and like Ryan have gotten a strong head start on swing voters). It's absolutely not going to be a landslide though, and well-informed/non-casual observers who believe it will be are unserious.

What about PA’s various competitive House races.  Anything interesting to report?

[Pollster]

Side note - have you heard anything about this race?

The dynamic is very similar to Ryan/Vance in Ohio - unpopular Republicans struggling with right-leaning voters who are mostly coming in undecided. Difference of course is that Fetterman/Shapiro have a more favorable playing field in terms of the partisanship of the state (and like Ryan have gotten a strong head start on swing voters). It's absolutely not going to be a landslide though, and well-informed/non-casual observers who believe it will be are unserious.

What about PA’s various competitive House races.  Anything interesting to report?

Have not done any polling of my own, but have heard that Cartwright is in better shape than Wild at the moment.

[wbrocks67]

Side note - have you heard anything about this race?

The dynamic is very similar to Ryan/Vance in Ohio - unpopular Republicans struggling with right-leaning voters who are mostly coming in undecided. Difference of course is that Fetterman/Shapiro have a more favorable playing field in terms of the partisanship of the state (and like Ryan have gotten a strong head start on swing voters). It's absolutely not going to be a landslide though, and well-informed/non-casual observers who believe it will be are unserious.

What about PA’s various competitive House races.  Anything interesting to report?

Have not done any polling of my own, but have heard that Cartwright is in better shape than Wild at the moment.

Makes sense. I could see Cartwright winning by his 2020 margin (2-3ish) while Wild/Scheller is truly up in the air from what it seems.

[wbrocks67]

Okay, now this is proving that this entire thing was just a desperate ploy for attention. Oz begged for debates. Fetterman then agreed to a debate in mid-October, when PA Senate debates usually happen. Oz says this is unacceptable and demands a debate before mail-in voting starts on SEPTEMBER 19th.

This was never about Fetterman debating or not. This was about Oz being messy and knowing this is his only chance to get attention (constantly yelling debate me!!!) and then demanding that he gets to get every stipulation, and when he doesn't get it, he won't debate.

So this suddenly turns into Oz not wanting to debate. Fetterman can say now, hey, I gave you a date, you didn't want it. Okay then

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1567984045379698691

[henster]

If I were advising Fetterman's campaign I'd recommend doing a direct to camera ad with a script like the following:

I'm John Fetterman, and Dr. Oz has been attacking me for having a stroke.

Yes, a doctor. Attacking me. For having a stroke. I know politics is brutal, but ~man~.

~My~ doctor says I'm recovering nicely. Recovering from a stroke can be difficult, and ugly at times, and most people don't have to do it in the spotlight of a political campaign. Dr. Oz knows that.

But this isn't the first time he's shown blatant disrespect to people because of their health. He's said smokers should be refused medical treatment, even though doctors take an oath to do no harm. And he wants to privatize medicare, which would force millions of seniors into health plans cited by regulators for wrongly denying medical claims.

I'm running for the Senate so every American has access to the same quality health care that saved my life. I approve this message, because I'll never wish you ill for your personal choices, or judge you for your pre-existing conditions.

This is good maybe another ad talking about his hospital bill and how he’ll fight for affordable healthcare. Lot of ways you can spin this positively to voters. Also hopefully they can get the jogger to do an ad for him and neutralize that whole story.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oz is gonna lose with Mastriano anyways

[wbrocks67]

This is the 2nd time now (the first being the MSNBC interview) where Fetterman appears nearly 100% back in speaking style. It seems as if when it's just a free form interview, he doesn't have as much trouble. It seems he may have a bit more trouble with big events maybe because of the noise or having to try and remember a prepared agenda?

Either way, the whole "Fetterman can barely communicate" line is simply astoundingly embarrassing after watching this video. Toomey and Oz should be ashamed of themselves.

https://twitter.com/PodSaveAmerica/status/1568213273597673472

[Pollster]

Also hopefully they can get the jogger to do an ad for him and neutralize that whole story.

The jogger going to camera would have to be handled deftly - Fetterman would probably have to be on camera with him, at least for part of it.

[wbrocks67]

Side note - have you heard anything about this race?

The dynamic is very similar to Ryan/Vance in Ohio - unpopular Republicans struggling with right-leaning voters who are mostly coming in undecided. Difference of course is that Fetterman/Shapiro have a more favorable playing field in terms of the partisanship of the state (and like Ryan have gotten a strong head start on swing voters). It's absolutely not going to be a landslide though, and well-informed/non-casual observers who believe it will be are unserious.

Thank you for this. And yeah, it's an interesting dynamic that while I still believe many GOPers will come home to Oz in the end most likely, the fact that we're 60 days out and he's *still* having trouble corralling them to his side is fascinating, and just shows he's a bad candidate.

I'll be interested in the next polls to see if the favorability ratings are holding up, i.e. Fetterman slightly positive but Oz still down double digits.

[wbrocks67]

360K mail-in ballots were counted in Philly in 2020.

108,000 applications for mail-ins/absentees have already been approved for this year
https://twitter.com/SethBluestein/status/1568249643976491011

[wbrocks67]

Waiting for other confirmation/sources, but there's a ton of stuff going around Twitter right now about Dr. Oz and horrific treatment of dogs back in 2004?

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1568343368526368768

https://twitter.com/LorenzoTheCat/status/1568373458953961475

[GeorgiaModerate]

If the dog cruelty story pans out, Oz is toast.  Burnt toast.

[Calthrina950]

If the dog cruelty story pans out, Oz is toast.  Burnt toast.

I thought I had seen enough negative stories about Oz and Mastriano. The Republicans certainly screwed up by nominating these two. They'd be on a much smoother path with McCormick and Barletta.

[Morning in Atlas]

This is good maybe another ad talking about his hospital bill and how he’ll fight for affordable healthcare. Lot of ways you can spin this positively to voters. Also hopefully they can get the jogger to do an ad for him and neutralize that whole story.

The jogger is in jail right now, so that'll be a bit hard.

I don't think it will be a huge issue in the general. I think the voters who he would have lost to this scandal have already abandoned him, and the country as a whole is split at best on issues like this.

It didn't even move the needle in the primary. I'm surprised that it would hurt him in the general.

[Pericles]

What a scumbag Dr Oz is. Biden and Fetterman should take him behind the gym.

[Xing]

Guys, let’s not get distracted and remember to be concerned because F E T T E R M A N  H A D  A  S T R O K E

[Ferguson97]

Fetterman should borrow Alvin from Warnock for an ad lol

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Fetterman should borrow Alvin from Warnock for an ad lol

Fetterman has two dogs…that he rescued

[wbrocks67]

I just have to laugh at how the narratives Oz are pushing are just so easily blowing up in his face. Whether it was the debate thing, which is now just making him look like a joke, or the 'health' narrative (where Fetterman does another 20 minute interview where he's fine, aside from you know, a few lingering speech issues because of a stroke)

[cg41386]

If the dog cruelty story pans out, Oz is toast.  Burnt toast.

I thought I had seen enough negative stories about Oz and Mastriano. The Republicans certainly screwed up by nominating these two. They'd be on a much smoother path with McCormick and Barletta.

Barletta would've probably still been a fairly weak candidate.

[Senator Incitatus]

Leaked photograph of Dr. Oz putting a Dog through incredible suffering.

[It’s so Joever]

Waiting for other confirmation/sources, but there's a ton of stuff going around Twitter right now about Dr. Oz and horrific treatment of dogs back in 2004?

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1568343368526368768

https://twitter.com/LorenzoTheCat/status/1568373458953961475

Okay if true I am changing my rating. Americans seem to love dogs ridiculously for some reason. It’s genuinely cult like, and yet they are okay eating bacon every morning. Unfortunately this is the worst reason not to support Oz.

[Calthrina950]

If the dog cruelty story pans out, Oz is toast.  Burnt toast.

I thought I had seen enough negative stories about Oz and Mastriano. The Republicans certainly screwed up by nominating these two. They'd be on a much smoother path with McCormick and Barletta.

Barletta would've probably still been a fairly weak candidate.

Probably, but not as weak as Oz. At the very least, he wouldn't have had the carpetbagging and "elitist" accusations that Oz has faced.