PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[soundchaser]

Almost certain this'll be within 1000 votes, very likely within 500, could even be within 100.

How likely is this being within 10 votes?

I saw someone with a bit of PA info put things at McCormick by around 20 votes based on what has already been tabulated of the same vote baskets in each county. He needs to win what is out by about 7%, not hard given the geography of the outstanding vote, but still a bit of a ask. So nobody can say for certain other than it will be close, and the campaigns are playing as such:

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1527036892755243008?s=20&t=t0-txa...

I’ve been a poll worker for a number of elections, and I can confidently say there is no bigger waste of cash than poll watchers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please please please let it be a tie.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1526966519682441218

Live look at Blue MAGA:

[brucejoel99]

Almost certain this'll be within 1000 votes, very likely within 500, could even be within 100.

How likely is this being within 10 votes?

I saw someone with a bit of PA info put things at McCormick by around 20 votes based on what has already been tabulated of the same vote baskets in each county. He needs to win what is out by about 7%, not hard given the geography of the outstanding vote, but still a bit of a ask. So nobody can say for certain other than it will be close, and the campaigns are playing as such:

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1527036892755243008

Link please?

[The Mikado]

The confidence in which some of you proclaim Conor Lamb is DOA bc YOU don’t like him is hilarious. Every cycle some of y’all say so and so is the spawn of Satan and they win their election or y’all blow smoke up someone’s butt and they lose. Like y’all do not have a crystal ball. LOL. All I can say is I just don’t like Fetterman, I think he’s awkward, boorish, and delusional I hope the overgrown ogre loses the primary.

As I said on the last thread, Fetterman is Shrek.

Shrek's not for everyone. Some people saw it as too blunt. "Har har har, Jeff Katzenberg makes a person designed to look like Michael Eisner and names him Farquaad. Get it? Sounds like F**kwad? How immature." "See? Katzenberg and Dreamworks are just trying to do a stupid parody of a Pixar film but with irreverent naughty aspects, how tired. People have been making fun of Disney for YEARS! Decades! None of these jokes are remotely new." But people just ate it up anyway. They liked the big ugly loafing ogre with the strength of ten men.

That's why I think they'll like John Fetterman. Just like most people liked Shrek and didn't care about Katzenberg's grudges or hackneyed cliches, they'll like Fetterman.

I keep telling you guys, Fetterman is the second coming of Shrek. He's Shrek II. And Shrek II wins.

[The Mikado]

Area man meets with President:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1487149671491407877?s=20&t=rwJRLs...

He's wearing shorts???

Anyway, my basic take hasn't changed. Fetterman's big, weird-looking, incredibly tough, and friendly. Basically, he's Shrek.

People LIKE Shrek. It's one of the most popular movies of all time and spurred multiple sequels.

My money's on Shrek getting elected to the Senate in PA.

Shrek beat all comers against amazing odds. Fetterman, Shrek incarnate, will do the same.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Made this up quickly in Paint using the CNN map. The demographic divides and regionalism really showed up in this primary like few others in recent times.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1526966519682441218

Live look at Blue MAGA:

You’re more pressed about this race that is OVER than any Lamb supporter I’ve seen. Lol.

[Morning in Atlas]

You’re more pressed about this race that is OVER than any Lamb supporter I’ve seen. Lol.

Nah, I'm enjoying the cope from people like you after literally everything I've said about this race got proven right. Again - don't blame me because your candidate ran the most pathetic Dem campaign since Coakley.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You’re more pressed about this race that is OVER than any Lamb supporter I’ve seen. Lol.

Nah, I'm enjoying the cope from people like you after literally everything I've said about this race got proven right. Again - don't blame me because your candidate ran the most pathetic Dem campaign since Coakley.

The primary is over and Lamb’s supporters have already moved on.  Cope.

[wbrocks67]

You’re more pressed about this race that is OVER than any Lamb supporter I’ve seen. Lol.

Nah, I'm enjoying the cope from people like you after literally everything I've said about this race got proven right. Again - don't blame me because your candidate ran the most pathetic Dem campaign since Coakley.

you are literally the only one who hasn't moved on yet. girl let it go.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1527246409996681217?s=20&t=DNZvK1Baf...

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1527175097685098497?s=20&t=DNZvK1BafB...

Some various thoughts on the GOP side, since I couldn't find again the tweet chain I previously referenced. Basically, McCormick is winning the majority of the remaining ballots by comparatively more than he needs to in order to catch up, given that they are mainly early votes from the center or west of the state. However, there may not be enough votes out there, because of confusion over the totals. The final big question mark is the chain of custody failure in Allegheny, a place where McCormick  is winning all types of ballots and is his 'stronghold,' but the e-day side of things is much closer than he needs.

Essentially, this should be going to a very small margin no matter the victor, which means likely legal action.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1527246409996681217?s=20&t=DNZvK1Baf...

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1527175097685098497?s=20&t=DNZvK1BafB...

Some various thoughts on the GOP side, since I couldn't find again the tweet chain I previously referenced. Basically, McCormick is winning the majority of the remaining ballots by comparatively more than he needs to in order to catch up, given that they are mainly early votes from the center or east of the state. However, there may not be enough votes out there, because of confusion over the totals. The final big question mark is the chain of custody failure in Allegheny, a place where McCormick  is winning all types of ballots and is his 'stronghold,' but the e-day side of things is much closer than he needs.

Essentially, this should be going to a very small margin no matter the victor, which means likely legal action.

I figure this is one of those scenarios like we saw in GA-2020 for President:  the final tally will be close, but you'd much rather be ahead in a footrace (even if it's by a tiny margin).  

[wbrocks67]

What will be interesting to see how Trump/Oz react if McCormick pulls this out by like 500 votes or something. Will Trump call fraud? Will he refuse to endorse McCormick?

[Sir Mohamed]

What will be interesting to see how Trump/Oz react if McCormick pulls this out by like 500 votes or something. Will Trump call fraud? Will he refuse to endorse McCormick?

Very possible. I could see Mr. Trump calling it a Dem plot to have the "weakest GOP candidate" running for the seat.

[KaiserDave]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Whoops! Ahahahhaha

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

You’re more pressed about this race that is OVER than any Lamb supporter I’ve seen. Lol.

Nah, I'm enjoying the cope from people like you after literally everything I've said about this race got proven right. Again - don't blame me because your candidate ran the most pathetic Dem campaign since Coakley.

C'mon, sawx.  Look at this dude.  Guy's signature is just a picture of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris smiling.  Might as well talk to a rock.  A rock that is IN SHAMBLES right now.  But a rock nonetheless.  

Bask in the light of your own wisdom, friend.  I was, naturally, far more pessimistic about this than you were.  I could not have foreseen Lamb being so low-energy.  Can't even win a single county after the entire state establishment throws endorsements his way.  No more deserving people in the world to have egg on their face!

[Sir Mohamed]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Whoops! Ahahahhaha

The senate was probably always Fetterman's destination. It's very likely he just ran for lt. gov. as a stepping stone for the senate again and gain statwide name ID.

Meanwhile, state AGs often get elected gov.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Whoops! Ahahahhaha

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Other way around for me

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

How's the vote count coming along, btw?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

How's the vote count coming along, btw?

Haven't seen any substantive updates on NYT since yesterday. Still Oz by about 1200.

[Oryxslayer]

How's the vote count coming along, btw?

Oz by 1,240 atm. Here's dave's take:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1527306642705879042?s=20&t=iOSET3dHyZc...

[brucejoel99]

How's the vote count coming along, btw?

Oz by 1,240 atm. Here's dave's take:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1527306642705879042

Love life for giving us a Fetterman win & dragging the GOP primary out for another month or 2, the perfect storm for a flip.

[wbrocks67]

How's the vote count coming along, btw?

Oz by 1,240 atm. Here's dave's take:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1527306642705879042

Love life for giving us a Fetterman win & dragging the GOP primary out for another month or 2, the perfect storm for a flip.

Ugh I just wish Fetterman was already healthy so he could be out there NOW

[President Johnson]

Random information related to Fetterman: Apparently his role as lt. governor is "on hold" as a result of his stroke. Governor Wolf announced that Senate president pro tem Jake Corman (R) was tasked to fulfill duties as acting lt. governor.