PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BTW, I'd love to see James Carville right now. He's probably furious

What does Carville have anything to do with this? It seems he lives rent free in your head. Anyways while I supported Lamb too much energy was spent over this race for second place.

Carville not uncommonly has nuggets of wisdom and all, but in retrospect it's hard to see how Fetterman could have been stopped. The guy beat Lamb in the primary basically 2-to-1. Doesn't matter if Fetterman is flawed (not saying he is or isn't), but it wouldn't matter either way, if there was no one able to beat him also running.

[Ferguson97]

Blue no matter who! Thank you Mr. President!

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1526735610198863872?s=21&t=9etAu2aHVdz1t...

KHive in f***ing shambles

Is Khive supposed to be the new “the 2016 primaries were rigged” or something?  Doesn’t seem like it’s a thing that actually exists in any remotely meaningful form

Imagine Bernie Bros but instead of white guys stanning Bernie, it's Black women stanning Kamala and they're like 1% as large

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Congrats to our big, beautiful Dem. establishment stans on their big, beautiful night!

[BuckeyeNut]

Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

RGA won't even commit to spending for Mastriano or against Shapiro, making the Gubernatorial election Lean D for now. And that frees up more PADP resources in the form of people power for Fetterman, so the Senate election between Fetterman and Oz should remain a tossup.

I'm going to laugh so hard when this take (which, the majority of people here agree with) inevitably does not age well. Y'all will never learn.

High and mighty bullsh!t is par for the course for this stupid website, and it usually isn't worth responding to, but will you ever learn to read? Whether it will "age well" is moot. The words "for now" are right there in the text.

You had damn near the same response to my saying Dolan was incapable of winning the OH-SEN race at the close of the primary as he was surging into what many thought might well be first. Review the record. I was right on that one, not you.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lamb already endorses Fetterman, joining Biden:

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1526770940272594944

[TML]

I was always wondering why the DSCC didn't jump in and try to really boost Lamb, but after seeing Fetterman obliterate Lamb tonight it's obvious it wouldn't have changed the outcome, it just would have been closer

[...]
Carville not uncommonly has nuggets of wisdom and all, but in retrospect it's hard to see how Fetterman could have been stopped. The guy beat Lamb in the primary basically 2-to-1. Doesn't matter if Fetterman is flawed (not saying he is or isn't), but it wouldn't matter either way, if there was no one able to beat him also running.

In past election cycles, the DSCC would have coronated a candidate very early on in the primary campaign, and almost all of those candidates went on to win their respective primary contests. This year, they evidently decided to refrain from doing that for reasons I'm not aware of, but I consider that a good thing, since most of the DSCC's past coronated candidates ended up falling short in their respective general elections. [Yes, I do believe that Lamb (or, for that matter, any other candidate the DSCC decided to endorse) would likely have won if the DSCC decided to endorse him - just look at how the last Democratic primary for this seat played out: the DSCC-endorsed candidate came from behind to win the primary in a landslide.]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was always wondering why the DSCC didn't jump in and try to really boost Lamb, but after seeing Fetterman obliterate Lamb tonight it's obvious it wouldn't have changed the outcome, it just would have been closer

[...]
Carville not uncommonly has nuggets of wisdom and all, but in retrospect it's hard to see how Fetterman could have been stopped. The guy beat Lamb in the primary basically 2-to-1. Doesn't matter if Fetterman is flawed (not saying he is or isn't), but it wouldn't matter either way, if there was no one able to beat him also running.

In past election cycles, the DSCC would have coronated a candidate very early on in the primary campaign, and almost all of those candidates went on to win their respective primary contests. This year, they evidently decided to refrain from doing that for reasons I'm not aware of, but I consider that a good thing, since most of the DSCC's past coronated candidates ended up falling short in their respective general elections. [Yes, I do believe that Lamb (or, for that matter, any other candidate the DSCC decided to endorse) would likely have won if the DSCC decided to endorse him - just look at how the last Democratic primary for this seat played out: the DSCC-endorsed candidate came from behind to win the primary in a landslide.]

Yeah, it was probably a worthy experiment.
We shall see if Fetterman wins in November.

[Pollster]

Looks like McCormick won the lions share of the undecided vote - if you add the undecided % to McCormick's % in most of the last polls you get him to almost exactly where he currently is in the count. Oz and Barnette mostly performing at their % averages as well.

[Matty]

This is why McCormick still has chance

He cut into oz’s margin by 135 votes on only a 1k absentee dump from Chester

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

BTW, I'd love to see James Carville right now. He's probably furious

What does Carville have anything to do with this? It seems he lives rent free in your head. Anyways while I supported Lamb too much energy was spent over this race for second place.

right? i've seen many people who were still slamming Lamb even after Fetterman lost... like I don't get what Lamb did to these people to make them so unhinged lmao.

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1526770937709965312

Make sure to say something about the stroke at the end. Real class act that guy.

[wbrocks67]

This is why McCormick still has chance

He cut into oz’s margin by 135 votes on only a 1k absentee dump from Chester

Well it just depends if the maiil-in vote was also newer or older. If it's older, then it's better for McCormick, but if it's late arriving mail-in, more likely it may help Oz.

[kwabbit]

Looks like McCormick won the lions share of the undecided vote - if you add the undecided % to McCormick's % in most of the last polls you get him to almost exactly where he currently is in the count. Oz and Barnette mostly performing at their % averages as well.

I think it was less undecideds breaking for McCormick and more that polls were continuously underestimating him. He probably had a significant lead before the Trump endorsement. Not sure why McCormick voters would be missed by polls, but given that Trump endorsed candidates gained at the end in previous races, I’m inclined to think Oz caught McCormick and not the other way around.

[lfromnj]

Looks like McCormick won the lions share of the undecided vote - if you add the undecided % to McCormick's % in most of the last polls you get him to almost exactly where he currently is in the count. Oz and Barnette mostly performing at their % averages as well.

I think it was less undecideds breaking for McCormick and more that polls were continuously underestimating him. He probably had a significant lead before the Trump endorsement. Not sure why McCormick voters would be missed by polls, but given that Trump endorsed candidates gained at the end in previous races, I’m inclined to think Oz caught McCormick and not the other way around.

The outgoing theory is an underestimation of Western PA voters.

[wbrocks67]

I'm from Montgomery County and i've never heard of Alex Khalil before this senate race, so it's amazing to me that 10% in Montco voted for her (even more than Kenyatta) purely bc she was from the area lol.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1526967459500150784?t=ZRapqtWBW4YRHh_yW...

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman's strength in areas like Erie is insane. 80% of the vote is just wow.

[ElectionsGuy]

Guys, it was the closed primary. The "Trumpiest" voters who are more likely to back Oz and Barnette are less likely to be registered Republicans than McCormick's more traditionally Republican voters. This didn't make a huge difference, but on the margins can easily explain the 5% or so miss.

When you look at county turnout differentials, this makes sense. Chester County had more R votes, even though that won't happen in the general. Rural counties in western PA barely had more R votes, despite them being overwhelmingly R in generals. This skews the Republican electorate to be less Trump-aligned, like going back in time.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout strong in the suburbs. Montgomery County still has vote out, but both Dems and Reps are at 39% turnout right now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fetterman's strength in areas like Erie is insane. 80% of the vote is just wow.

The alternatives were a guy who no one outside of part of Philly cares about and a guy who ran a Martha Coakley-tier campaign, not shocking.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

McKean, my dad’s home county voted around 80% for Fetterman, which was expected by me because every liberal person he knows that’s still in Bradford said they were voting for Fetterman

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

One pretty funny tidbit that I heard last night during Malcolm's hit on NBC News after the race was called for Fetterman--back in 2016, Fetterman finished 3rd in the Democratic primary for this same seat. Kenyatta will finish 3rd in this year's primary. Important to remember how much can change in just a couple of years. Hoping Malcolm is able to run for Congress soon

[sting in the rafters]

It’s Mehmet’s world and we just live in it.

Oz world! Oz world! Party time! Excellent!

In all seriousness its gonna f---ing blow when Fetterman loses in November off turnout differential alone and the consensus starts calling him damaged goods. Better not do him like Sestak.

Fetterman could beat Oz.  I wouldn’t call him the favorite but it’s not some unfathomable thing. 

Fetterman's standup fs aside from fracking but like dude gas is still $5,000 a gallon. 50-cent cakes are now 75-cent cakes. Nobody's gonna be able to afford to buy a house till they have their first gray hair. They can't get anything fired up to protect women's health concerns on the federal level, state level sure but you're still gonna see people suffer from the patchwork clusterf--- alone. The situation on the ground is just so unfavorable to Ds rn and even if it isn't really their fault as the incumbent party they're gonna get blamed.

[Real Texan Politics]

Almost certain this'll be within 1000 votes, very likely within 500, could even be within 100.

How likely is this being within 10 votes?

[Oryxslayer]

Almost certain this'll be within 1000 votes, very likely within 500, could even be within 100.

How likely is this being within 10 votes?

I saw someone with a bit of PA info put things at McCormick by around 20 votes based on what has already been tabulated of the same vote baskets in each county. He needs to win what is out by about 7%, not hard given the geography of the outstanding vote, but still a bit of a ask. So nobody can say for certain other than it will be close, and the campaigns are playing as such:

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1527036892755243008?s=20&t=t0-txa...

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

The stupidest primary in the country gets even stupider.