PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1524749454976368640

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lowkey I hope Barnett’s wins. Then in the ge they either win the seat or have a real Lightning rod in the Senate

[Pollster]

Trump anti-endorses Barnette

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1524808110644379649?s=20&t=5YcxERB2...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

hahahaha that's awesome. i love seeing maga world panic over someone who is too extreme even for them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

His random and inappropriate uses of capitalization irks me.

[wbrocks67]

It's funny because Barnette is closest to Trump in terms of not just craziness but ideology at this point. She is increasingly the "Far right MAGA candidate" and you'd think that Trump would've endorsed her from the start.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I love that trump keeps anti-endorsing  half the Republican field

It’ll be something if one of them win the nomination

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

> Mitch McConnell is fixated on ensuring that the 2022 cycle is not a repeat of 2010 or 2012...

I understand the references to 2010 (DE, CO, etc. etc.).  But to what Senate races from 2012 is this referring?

[Not Me, Us]

> Mitch McConnell is fixated on ensuring that the 2022 cycle is not a repeat of 2010 or 2012...

I understand the references to 2010 (DE, CO, etc. etc.).  But to what Senate races from 2012 is this referring?

Indiana 2012 GOP primary maybe?

[Utah Neolib]

I honestly think that whoever the GOP nominates here performs in the general election almost exactly the same. Oz, McCormick, Barnette it doesn’t matter. I think this race is going to be high-Tilt R to Lean R. I do not see how anyone is going to change their vote (or not vote) regardless of the candidate.

[OSR stands with Israel]

> Mitch McConnell is fixated on ensuring that the 2022 cycle is not a repeat of 2010 or 2012...

I understand the references to 2010 (DE, CO, etc. etc.).  But to what Senate races from 2012 is this referring?

IN MO ND probably


Truly embarrassing how badly we did in the senate in 2012

[OSR stands with Israel]

I honestly think that whoever the GOP nominates here performs in the general election almost exactly the same. Oz, McCormick, Barnette it doesn’t matter. I think this race is going to be high-Tilt R to Lean R. I do not see how anyone is going to change their vote (or not vote) regardless of the candidate.

My hot take is we are less likely to hold PA than pick up NV , AZ and even GA .

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're gonna win the 303 blue wall but there might be split voting in GA and AZ Kelly and Lake and Kemp and Warnock and CCM and SISOLAK are both ahead and as far as PA and WI the Schumer majority pack is running ads in both PA and WI and Johnson by Marquette doesn't have a 50 percent Approvals he has a 36 Favs

Users act like PA and WI are red states and they're not we only lost them with Hillary we won them in every other Prez campaign

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump seems way more determined in making sure Oz wins than he was with Vance.

[Senator Spiral]

Trump seems way more determined in making sure Oz wins than he was with Vance.

To the extent that Trump shows loyalty, he's grateful for Oz giving him an excellent bill of health back in 2016.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump seems way more determined in making sure Oz wins than he was with Vance.

To the extent that Trump shows loyalty, he's grateful for Oz giving him an excellent bill of health back in 2016.

That is true. And Oz and Trump are actual friends, which means more to Trump than Vance, who he clearly didn't care too much about (J. P Mandel).

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1524749454976368640

If I had to guess he's behind McCormick but doesn't want to endorse because he thinks his endorsement will hurt him because of his impeachment vote

[DaleCooper]

This seems like a where there's smoke there's fire sort of thing. I don't believe conservative media, Republicans, and Trump himself would be so scared of this lady if they didn't have reason to believe that she's going to truly crash and burn in the general election. I suppose it is very possible that they are simply out of touch and don't get that Pennsylvania votes to the right of the nation these days, but still, to form such a united front against her would be over-the-top if it's purely that she's less electable than Oz.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This seems like a where there's smoke there's fire sort of thing. I don't believe conservative media, Republicans, and Trump himself would be so scared of this lady if they didn't have reason to believe that she's going to truly crash and burn in the general election. I suppose it is very possible that they are simply out of touch and don't get that Pennsylvania votes to the right of the nation these days, but still, to form such a united front against her would be over-the-top if it's purely that she's less electable than Oz.

Yes this race is getting extremely bizarre. Between the Oz Turkish election fiasco, the Barnette saga, and Trump/Toomey’s weird behavior, I don’t know what to think

[DaleCooper]

This seems like a where there's smoke there's fire sort of thing. I don't believe conservative media, Republicans, and Trump himself would be so scared of this lady if they didn't have reason to believe that she's going to truly crash and burn in the general election. I suppose it is very possible that they are simply out of touch and don't get that Pennsylvania votes to the right of the nation these days, but still, to form such a united front against her would be over-the-top if it's purely that she's less electable than Oz.

Yes this race is getting extremely bizarre. Between the Oz Turkish election fiasco, the Barnette saga, and Trump/Toomey’s weird behavior, I don’t know what to think

Toomey's line in particular makes it seem like he's aware of some kind of opposition research bomb that's going to drop on her any day now. It doesn't sound like speculation. Again, I've been wrong before, but she doesn't seem like the type of candidate everyone in Republican world would get so worked up over if it was purely a matter of her making a winnable race a little closer.

The Barnette stuff is also interesting because it once again reveals Trump to very much be an establishment Republican at odds with the #populist (in other words, crazy) base. Who knows if or when anti-establishment Republican voters will ever be smart enough to recognize that.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This seems like a where there's smoke there's fire sort of thing. I don't believe conservative media, Republicans, and Trump himself would be so scared of this lady if they didn't have reason to believe that she's going to truly crash and burn in the general election. I suppose it is very possible that they are simply out of touch and don't get that Pennsylvania votes to the right of the nation these days, but still, to form such a united front against her would be over-the-top if it's purely that she's less electable than Oz.

Yes this race is getting extremely bizarre. Between the Oz Turkish election fiasco, the Barnette saga, and Trump/Toomey’s weird behavior, I don’t know what to think

With this and the Ohio primary, this is certainly the most entertaining non-presidential primary season I've seen.

[wbrocks67]

I honestly think that whoever the GOP nominates here performs in the general election almost exactly the same. Oz, McCormick, Barnette it doesn’t matter. I think this race is going to be high-Tilt R to Lean R. I do not see how anyone is going to change their vote (or not vote) regardless of the candidate.

Disagree. It won't change many votes, but there's a nice chunk of voters especially in the suburban areas that may be open to voting for someone like McCormick but who Barnette is way too far for them. PA has a large MAGA base, but they also have a large Republican base who isn't *very* far right and is closer to the center. Barnette may be a step too far for some of them.

[Burke Bro]

It’s not hard to see why Republican voters in Pennsylvania are connecting with Barnette. There is something about this ad which strikes a nerve, particularly among the evangelical crowd. Compare that to the Dr. Oz ad which is very obvious pandering that the 2A crowd won’t buy as easily. People can see through Oz and it’s clear conservatives are looking for a more authentic candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Barnette won, even with Trumps anti-endorsement and that of other Republican Party leaders. 

[MT Treasurer]

I honestly think that whoever the GOP nominates here performs in the general election almost exactly the same. Oz, McCormick, Barnette it doesn’t matter. I think this race is going to be high-Tilt R to Lean R. I do not see how anyone is going to change their vote (or not vote) regardless of the candidate.

Disagree. It won't change many votes, but there's a nice chunk of voters especially in the suburban areas that may be open to voting for someone like McCormick but who Barnette is way too far for them. PA has a large MAGA base, but they also have a large Republican base who isn't *very* far right and is closer to the center. Barnette may be a step too far for some of them.

I honestly think those voters would prefer Barnette to Oz, who is probably the Republican most likely to just throw away the seat. Besides, McCormick might underperform in some of the areas with residual Democratic strength (esp. in the West/Northeast), which would more than cancel out any 'suburban' strength he supposedly still has even after going hard right. His past just makes it incredibly easy for a candidate in the mold of Fetterman to run against him.

I think Barnette has 'surged' for a reason (despite being outspent 350-to-1 on TV), and it certainly speaks to Oz's and McCormick's weaknesses as candidates.

[LabourJersey]

I honestly think that whoever the GOP nominates here performs in the general election almost exactly the same. Oz, McCormick, Barnette it doesn’t matter. I think this race is going to be high-Tilt R to Lean R. I do not see how anyone is going to change their vote (or not vote) regardless of the candidate.

Disagree. It won't change many votes, but there's a nice chunk of voters especially in the suburban areas that may be open to voting for someone like McCormick but who Barnette is way too far for them. PA has a large MAGA base, but they also have a large Republican base who isn't *very* far right and is closer to the center. Barnette may be a step too far for some of them.

I honestly think those voters would prefer Barnette to Oz, who is probably the Republican most likely to just throw away the seat. Besides, McCormick might underperform in some of the areas with residual Democratic strength (esp. in the West/Northeast), which would more than cancel out any 'suburban' strength he supposedly still has even after going hard right. His past just makes it incredibly easy for a candidate in the mold of Fetterman to run against him.

I think Barnette has 'surged' for a reason (despite being outspent 350-to-1 on TV), and it certainly speaks to Oz's and McCormick's weaknesses as candidates.

I don't disagree with your point here, but I do think people underestimate how different primary voters are from general election voters and the public at large. Primary voters are informed and intense. And this is especially apparent in the Republican party right now