Cities vs. rest of county

[Tartarus Sauce]

Here is Utah County.  Biden only won one precinct as very Mormon so quite conservative, but an unusually high number of write-ins which makes sense as too conservative to consider voting Democrat, but also many Mormons dislike Trump.  Evan McMullin in 2016 won several precincts in this county.

Provo

Trump: 22,086 (54.5%)
Biden: 14,787 (36.5%)
Total: 40,539

Rest of Utah County

Trump: 170,276 (68.1%)
Biden: 61,246 (24.4%)
Total: 250,620

Astounding that a Democrat can break 35% in Provo. The city is nearly 90% Mormon.

[Hope For A New Era]

Here is Utah County.  Biden only won one precinct as very Mormon so quite conservative, but an unusually high number of write-ins which makes sense as too conservative to consider voting Democrat, but also many Mormons dislike Trump.  Evan McMullin in 2016 won several precincts in this county.

Provo

Trump: 22,086 (54.5%)
Biden: 14,787 (36.5%)
Total: 40,539

Rest of Utah County

Trump: 170,276 (68.1%)
Biden: 61,246 (24.4%)
Total: 250,620

Astounding that a Democrat can break 35% in Provo. The city is nearly 90% Mormon.

The Mormon Realignment is coming!

[NOVA Green]

Here is Utah County.  Biden only won one precinct as very Mormon so quite conservative, but an unusually high number of write-ins which makes sense as too conservative to consider voting Democrat, but also many Mormons dislike Trump.  Evan McMullin in 2016 won several precincts in this county.

Provo

Trump: 22,086 (54.5%)
Biden: 14,787 (36.5%)
Total: 40,539

Rest of Utah County

Trump: 170,276 (68.1%)
Biden: 61,246 (24.4%)
Total: 250,620

Astounding that a Democrat can break 35% in Provo. The city is nearly 90% Mormon.

The Mormon Realignment is coming!

The changes between '16 and '20 for the DEM PRES Candidate are especially noteworthy...

McMullin 2016 voters may well have broken 60% Biden as Blairite observed on the thread linked below.

UTAH- #3- Provo- 2020- Trump HOLD:

2020:

Trump:   22,086    (54.9%)       +18.2% R      (+2.0% DEM SWING '16-'20)
Biden:    14,787    (36.7%)
Misc:       3,368     ( 8.4%)
Total:     40,241                        +23.2% Increase in TV 2016 to 2020.                                           

2016:

Trump:   12,857    (39.4%)       +20.2% R
HRC:        6,277    (19.2%)
Misc:      13,530    (41.4%) 
Total:     32,664

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=414071.0


I have been neglecting the 2020 GE PRES Votes in College Communities thread over the past Month, but it will be interesting to look at how big a swing there was in heavily BYU Student precincts vs the rest of the City.


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411611.msg7796712#msg7796712

[mileslunn]

Here is for Duval County.  Most of the population lives in Jacksonville, but still have the few suburbs outside of city.  Asides from Baldwin, other suburbs very white, but more upper middle class so white population doesn't vote as heavily GOP as rest of county, but still enough they win most of those.  City itself unusually high for GOP, but unlike most US cities includes areas that would be suburbs in most other cities thus more in line with a metro area in South.  Only thing that shows its culturally Southern rather than Northern (Miami more Northeastern culturally, Tampa Midwestern) is it is 30% African-American and in a northern city with an African-American population that large, Democrats would do way better.

Jacksonville

Biden: 238,486 (52%)
Trump: 213,187 (46.4%)
Total: 459,015

Rest of Duval County

Trump: 20,575 (58.5%)
Biden: 14,070 (40%)
Total: 35,146

[mileslunn]

Here is Escambia County, anybody know if this is a first as I would have thought Pensacola would have gone GOP, but turns out Biden won it.  Did Clinton win it in 2016 or did it go for Trump?

Pensacola:

Biden: 18,181 (51.5%)
Trump: 16,356 (46.4%)
Total: 35,288

Rest of Escambia County

Trump: 80,318 (59.2%)
Biden: 52,748 (38.9%)
Total: 135,568

[mileslunn]

Here is Hillsborough County

Tampa:

Biden: 115,381 (61.5%)
Trump: 69,272 (36.9%)
Total: 187,493

Rest of Hillsborough County

Biden: 260,986 (49.6%)
Trump: 258,126 (49%)
Total: 526,575

Surprised Biden narrowly won rest of Hillsborough County, but at same token like much of Florida very low density sprawl so city is more favorable to Trump than many cities elsewhere and more live outside city.  Most of rest of county is unincorporated but northwest was mix with areas just northwest of city going mostly for Biden, but those further northwest for Trump.  Eastern part went heavily for Trump.  Southern part of county more Biden, but quite competitive.

[mileslunn]

Here is Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County

Miami

Biden: 95,045 (59.1%)
Trump: 64,614 (40.1%)
Total: 160,949

Rest of Miami-Dade County

Biden: 522,819 (52.4%)
Trump: 468,219 (46.9%)
Total: 997,969

Trump won Bal Harbor (wealthy white area), Doral (large Cuban and Venezuelan community), Golden Beach (wealthy white area), Hialeah Gardens (majority Cuban), Hialeah (3/4 Cuban-American), Indian Creek Village (rich white area), Medley (majority Cuban-American), Miami Lakes (Large Cuban-American community), Sunny Beach Isles (large Jewish and Cuban, wondering if Hasidic as they voted for Trump, while liberal and reform Jews mostly for Biden), Miami Springs (large Cuban-American), Sweetwater (almost half Cuban-American), Virginia Gardens (large Cuban-American), West Miami (majority Cuban).

Looking through this, looks like Trump as expected won big in areas with large Cuban-American.  Biden won big in areas with large African-American including even Haitian and Jamaican immigrants although I don't think West Indian community was quite as lopsided for Biden as African-American community, but still of foreign born population; Black immigrants definitely voted most heavily Democrat.  White areas leaned Trump but a mix with the more affluent and lots of seniors going for Trump.  Younger ones depended but Trump did surprisingly well in heavily Jewish areas and also well in areas with lots of Eastern European immigrants too.  For Hispanics, not all predominately Hispanic areas went for Trump.  Biden won big amongst Central American immigrants while South American was a mix (I believe Trump won Venezuelan and Colombian but Biden won Peruvian and Argentine).

Miami for city itself did go pretty heavily GOP relatively speaking as in most other city centrals, usually GOP is under 30% and in many cases in teens.  But then again, Hispanic community in Miami is much more friendly to GOP than elsewhere due to fact large chunk are Cuban-American.

[mileslunn]

Got Orange County, Florida results, but need to know which numbers to code for Orlando.  Got maps of other smaller municipalities but not which are Orlando and unincorporated areas.  Once I have that I can calculate it which is last major Florida I need to calculate.


Trump won Belle Isle, Edgewood, Oakland, and Windemere

Couldn't find (note I just did total minus Orlando for rest but those two hardly any people anyways) Bay Lake, Lake Buena Vista

[Sol]

Here is Escambia County, anybody know if this is a first as I would have thought Pensacola would have gone GOP, but turns out Biden won it.  Did Clinton win it in 2016 or did it go for Trump?

Pensacola:

Biden: 18,181 (51.5%)
Trump: 16,356 (46.4%)
Total: 35,288

Rest of Escambia County

Trump: 80,318 (59.2%)
Biden: 52,748 (38.9%)
Total: 135,568

Clinton appears to have very narrowly lost it, though alas precincts don't align with municipal lines so it's fundamentally unknown.

[mileslunn]

While generally stick to central cities not suburbs, this depending on how you count it could count as one. 

St. Petersburg

Biden: 97,350 (61.3%)
Trump: 58,984 (37.2%)

Rest of Pinellas County

Trump: 217,225 (54%)
Biden: 180,100 (44.6%)

Gulfport only other community Biden won, everything else went for Trump, but outside St. Petersburg very white so rest of Pinellas County numbers is probably what the results were amongst whites throughout county or close to that, but since St. Petersburg has a large African-American community, that is why Biden won it.  Although Gulfport is 89% white and Trump only got 36% so it bucks the trend.

[mileslunn]

Dauphin County, Pennsylvania below.

Harrisburg:

Biden: 15,897 (84.1%)
Trump: 2,712 (14.3%)
Total: 18,907

rest of Dauphin County

Trump: 63,696 (49.4%)
Biden: 63,086 (48.9%)
Total: 128,994

Trump won big in rural parts no surprise.  Harrisburg voted so heavily Democrat as it is 52% African-American, 18% Hispanic while whites only 30% and a lot living there would be civil servants so naturally lean Democratic unlike surrounding areas which are quite socially conservative.  Biden also one most adjacent boroughs by sizeable margins although not quite as lopsided as Harrisburg but again large minority although not minority-majority and lots of Civil servants.  Eastern part near Hershey in Derry Township went for Biden too and I believe Hershey is very much white working class so an area you would think Trump would do well in.  Famous for chocolates.  Northern part is more hilly and very rural so went for Trump in landslide.

Lots of Harrisburg suburbs are in Cumberland county and it was unlike Dauphin county suburbs, pretty evenly split (but those ones a lot whiter) while rural parts pushed county towards Trump.

[Skye]

Got Orange County, Florida results, but need to know which numbers to code for Orlando.  Got maps of other smaller municipalities but not which are Orlando and unincorporated areas.  Once I have that I can calculate it which is last major Florida I need to calculate.

Geez, good luck with that. Orlando's city limits are a mess and I don't think they match precincts.

[sguberman]

Dauphin County, Pennsylvania below.

Harrisburg:

Biden: 15,897 (84.1%)
Trump: 2,712 (14.3%)
Total: 18,907

rest of Dauphin County

Trump: 63,696 (49.4%)
Biden: 63,086 (48.9%)
Total: 128,994

Trump won big in rural parts no surprise.  Harrisburg voted so heavily Democrat as it is 52% African-American, 18% Hispanic while whites only 30% and a lot living there would be civil servants so naturally lean Democratic unlike surrounding areas which are quite socially conservative.  Biden also one most adjacent boroughs by sizeable margins although not quite as lopsided as Harrisburg but again large minority although not minority-majority and lots of Civil servants.  Eastern part near Hershey in Derry Township went for Biden too and I believe Hershey is very much white working class so an area you would think Trump would do well in.  Famous for chocolates.  Northern part is more hilly and very rural so went for Trump in landslide.

Lots of Harrisburg suburbs are in Cumberland county and it was unlike Dauphin county suburbs, pretty evenly split (but those ones a lot whiter) while rural parts pushed county towards Trump.

I have been to Hershey park many times as I am from Northern Virginia including on my high school end of the year trip.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Hinds County.

Jackson

Biden: 52,449 (84.3%)
Trump: 8,738 (14.1%)
Total: 62,191

Rest of Hinds County

Biden: 21,101 (55.5%)
Trump: 16,403 (43.1%)
Total: 38,017

Like much of the south very racially polarized but appears in Byram which is more affluent Biden did win a sizeable minority of white voters although it is becoming a lot more diverse than in past.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Douglas County, Nebraska

Omaha

Biden:  128,093 (57%)
Trump: 90,665 (40.4%)
Total: 224,661

Rest of Douglas County

Trump: 28,494 (54.9%)
Biden: 22,257 (42.9%)
Total: 51,879

Omaha extends pretty much out to countryside thus not surprising Trump did a bit better than most cities.  Biden did narrowly win Ralston and also areas just beyond city limits which are still largely built up, but rural areas went heavily for Trump as did some precincts just outside city.  Most of the formal suburbs I believe are in Sarpy County.

[mileslunn]

Here is a rough approximation of Oklahoma City.  Vote by mail not split by precinct so made adjustments from there, but comes out to approximately as follows below.

Oklahoma City

Biden: 52%
Trump: 45%

Rest of Oklahoma County

Trump: 58%
Biden: 39%

Oklahoma City as a whole if you include Canadian and Cleveland counties comes out to approximately Trump 51% to Biden 47% as Trump won the Cleveland and Canadian county portions.  Again due to precinct splits in Cleveland county very rough.  Canadian County only one I could exact for, however Trump got around 2/3 in both the OKC parts of those counties.  Cleveland County was closer due to Norman which is a college town which Biden won.

[mileslunn]

For Tulsa, here are the approximate.  It doesn't split vote by mail so I adjusted proportionally and got approximate.

Tulsa

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47%

Rest of Tulsa County

Trump: 67%
Biden: 30%

Trump likely won Tulsa as it expands into other counties but it was close.  Tulsa and Oklahoma City I think stretch out further than most thus why Trump competitive, but I believe downtown cores went pretty heavily Democrat.

[lfromnj]

For Tulsa, here are the approximate.  It doesn't split vote by mail so I adjusted proportionally and got approximate.

Tulsa

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47%

Rest of Tulsa County

Trump: 67%
Biden: 30%

Trump likely won Tulsa as it expands into other counties but it was close.  Tulsa and Oklahoma City I think stretch out further than most thus why Trump competitive, but I believe downtown cores went pretty heavily Democrat.

Are you only including the parts of Tulsa within the county itself or the entire city?

[mileslunn]

For Tulsa, here are the approximate.  It doesn't split vote by mail so I adjusted proportionally and got approximate.

Tulsa

Biden: 50%
Trump: 47%


Rest of Tulsa County

Trump: 67%
Biden: 30%

Trump likely won Tulsa as it expands into other counties but it was close.  Tulsa and Oklahoma City I think stretch out further than most thus why Trump competitive, but I believe downtown cores went pretty heavily Democrat.

Are you only including the parts of Tulsa within the county itself or the entire city?

Just parts in Tulsa County.  If you include other parts, Trump likely narrowly won it.  While not certain, looks like Trump narrowly won both Oklahoma City and Tulsa, but not by much.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Bernalillo County.  With lots of split precincts this is just approximate.

Albuquerque

Biden: 62.2%
Trump: 35.4%

Rest of Bernalillo County

Biden: 55.3%
Trump: 40.6%

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

[Badger]

Would love to hear about would love to hear about Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton counties in Ohio

[mileslunn]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

[mileslunn]

Would love to hear about would love to hear about Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton counties in Ohio

Its at bottom of page 4 https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412697.75

[Sailor Haumea]

Anyone want to take a crack at Gulfport, MS, and Biloxi, MS vs. Harrison County, or Oxford, MS vs. Lafayette County, or Ocean Springs, MS and Pascagoula, MS vs. Jackson County? I tried to calculate Gulfport, Biloxi, and Ocean Springs, but messed up bad and have no idea how to get correct results.

This is what I got but numbers look at bit small as some precincts by voting location so I only included those specifying name.

Biloxi

Trump: 5,077 (51.5%)
Biden: 4,577 (46.4%)
Total: 9,861

Gulfport

Biden: 6,253 (76.5%)
Trump: 1,784 (21.8%)
Total: 8,170

Rest of Harrison County:

Trump: 39,851 (69%)
Biden: 16,898 (29.3%)
Total: 57,737

Oxford

Trump: 7,506 (49.3%)
Biden: 7,440 (48.9%)
Total: 15,226

Rest of Lafayette County

Trump: 5,443 (66.4%)
Biden: 2,630 (32.1%)
Total: 8,197

For Jackson County will take a while as have to google where each voting place is located in.

I don't think these are right for Gulfport or Biloxi given that Trump narrowly carried Gulfport in 2016 and there's not that much of the county population that isn't in one of those two.