Cities vs. rest of county

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

These numbers come out to 71.8-26.4, which is ~1% more D than the final result. Los Angeles proper is around 40% of the county’s population.

As I mentioned it's only enight final results, which explains the discrepancy.

Yup. It means VBM and GOTV efforts likely helped Trump in LA County.

[mileslunn]

For Mecklenburg County, this is rough approximation.  They only give for in person votes, not absentee breakdown so I adjusted.  Below is actual for in person and then beside is estimated.

Total

In person                   Total

Biden: 63.6%              66.7%
Trump  34.7%             31.6%

Charlotte

In Person                       Approximate Total

Biden: 67.9%                   71.2%
Trump: 30.4%                  27.7%

Rest of Mecklenburg County

In Person                Approximate Total

Trump: 54.1%          49.3%
Biden:  44.4%          46.6%

So pretty sure Trump won rest of Mecklenburg County suggesting that if Charlotte suburbs especially if you include adjacent counties voted more like Atlanta suburbs would have been enough for Biden to win state.

[Skye]

I want to see Houston vs. rest of Harris County.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

Question: How did you compile this? Houston's city limits don't match precinct shapes.

[mileslunn]

I want to see Houston vs. rest of Harris County.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

Question: How did you compile this? Houston's city limits don't match precinct shapes.

I got this off twitter from someone who does maps.  Its an estimate not precise but close enough.  Whichever municipality the precincts are predominately in is used.

[Real Texan Politics]

Harris County I have the following:  Trump did much better here than most city proper.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

May have been due to Biden's oil comments. Lot's of oil industry in eastern Houston + Harris County. On the other hand you got rapid growing suburbs in the northwest side near Cypress which has a lot of affluent college educated whites, but also lots of hispanics in many of the unincorporated parts of west Houston near Katy.

Of course I'm from the area so that's how I know a lot about it lol

[mileslunn]

A summary of ones still outstanding I am looking for:

Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento county
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa County
Tucson vs. rest of Pima County
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa County
OKC vs. rest of Oklahoma County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby County
Rochester vs. rest of Monroe County
Buffalo vs. rest of Erie County (once counting finished)
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval County
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough County
Orlando vs. rest of Orange County
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County.

[Skye]

OKC vs. rest of Oklahoma County
Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa County

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1329127672753102850

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1325154749029572609

Also, Dave will upload the results for NY by township once they're done counting.

Matthew Isbell will probably post an article detailing FL results soon-ish.

Indianapolis is like 90% of Marion county anyways, but I think you can ask Oryx the results for the city proper, he posted a map of the county a few days ago.

For Sacramento, the CA SOS will post results by city after they are done counting.

[NOVA Green]

A summary of ones still outstanding I am looking for:

Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento county
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa County
Tucson vs. rest of Pima County
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa County
OKC vs. rest of Oklahoma County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby County
Rochester vs. rest of Monroe County
Buffalo vs. rest of Erie County (once counting finished)
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval County
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough County
Orlando vs. rest of Orange County
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County.

Tucson is on my list of places to run a compare / contrast against 2016 Election results.

I have precincts coded from a previous project, so now that the County Canvass is complete, so long as precincts didn't change, it shouldn't be too big an exercise to tabulate the 2020 numbers.

I'll see if I can get to that in the next few days, since I have a four day weekend coming up, with no Holiday plans.

[NOVA Green]

Pima County- Arizona 2020 Compare / Contrast

Tucson, Arizona 2020:

Split precincts trip it up, and honestly I haven't tried to dissect precinct shifts from '16 to '20, so am using existing 2016 precinct coding which I had, so it is entirely plausible that some splits might have been absorbed into City Limits, or even possibly the handful of "Unincorporated Precincts"....



Tucson, Arizona 2016:



1.) Tucson City Precincts:

Increase in Total Votes '16-'20:  35,926    (+22.9% Increase from 2016 TVs)

Percentage Swing from 2016 > 2020:  +4.9% D

2.) Tucson Split Precincts:

Increase in Total Votes '16-'20: +13,196  (+25.5% Increase from 2016 TVs)

Percentage Swing from 2016 > 2020:  +4.2% D

Not quite sure how you want to code the City vs Split precincts (Personally I would likely just throw them all into the batch, unless you really want to get into precinct parsing, which is quite frankly not only a pain in the arse, but also unless you really have a good handle of which precincts have a higher or lower % of voters inside and outside of Municipal Boundaries, etc you might end working on a Masters Degree project to do compare / contrasts of various large Cities over a couple decades....

A few interesting items of note:

1.) There are many parts of rural Pima County heavily dominated by Native Land, where Biden was snaking something like 90% of the Vote (Around the Tohono O'odham Nation).

2.) You also have significant rural heavily Latino Populations in the far West Precincts, as well as East and SE Precincts.

I have not examined these numbers yet.

3.) I have not yet looked at precinct level results in the most Latino precincts of Tucson to compare & contrast versus 2016 results.

4.) For anybody interested in the Military Vote in 2020:

Precinct 114 (Tucson) is a Military Base Precinct: (Davis–Monthan Air Force Base)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis%E2%80%93Monthan_Air_Force_Base

2020:

Biden:   368    (48.2%)      +0.7% D       (+11.5% D Swing)
Trump:  363    (47.5%)
Total:    764                                          (+86.7% Increase in TV)

2016:

HRC:   151    (36.9%)      +10.8% R
Trump:  195    (47.7%)
Total:    409

5.) I will be pulling the 2016 vs 2020 precinct numbers for University of Arizona Precincts on another thread...

I'll just leave it at this for now....

[mileslunn]

I was able to figure this out by calculating Pima county totals minus Tucson and I get following:

Tucson

Biden:  65.4%
Trump: 32.6%

Rest of Pima County - Total votes 262,393 votes

Biden: 51.9% (136,356 votes)
Trump: 47.1% (123,823 votes)

[mileslunn]

Here is Honolulu

Honolulu

Biden: 67.3% (122,804 votes)
Trump: 30.4% (55,367 votes)

Rest of Honolulu County

Biden: 58.1% (116,065 votes)
Trump: 40.5% (80,892 votes)

[sguberman]

Could someone get the data for Portland vs the rest of Multnomah County, Las Vegas vs the rest of Clark County, Wichita vs the rest of Sedgewick County, and Little Rock vs the rest of Pulaski County.

[mileslunn]

Could someone get the data for Portland vs the rest of Multnomah County, Las Vegas vs the rest of Clark County, Wichita vs the rest of Sedgewick County, and Little Rock vs the rest of Pulaski County.

We have Portland vs. Multonomah County earlier.  I checked three mentioned but not up yet but will check again and maybe someone else is able to get the data for those three.

[Skye]

Seattle City:

Biden: 88.45%
Trump: 9.11%

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

For King County, again may change slightly but still good indication percentage wise.  Since numbers not final, just gave percentages.  Looks like Seattle might be in the running for most Democratic city as has beaten out San Francisco and Boston and likely New York City.  Mind you one of the more well to do, quite educated so somewhat makes sense.  Washington DC is more Democratic and Detroit probably is too (large African-American), but ranks up there.

Seattle:

Biden: 89.5%
Trump: 8%

Rest of King County

Biden: 69.1%
Trump: 27.6%

East end which was once solidly Republican is where GOP floor has fallen through.  Not surprising as large tech sector, large number of well to do college educated residents.

Exhibit #2 for the case against a uniform R swing among urban nonwhites. (Seattle proper is 68% Non-Hispanic White, 15% Asian, and 7% Black per 2019 estimates.) That Trump number is not very indicative of a R swing among Seattle’s Asian or Black residents.

I think you need to look at the suburbs like Tukwila, Sea-Tac, Kent, Federal Way, Renton, and South Seattle precincts before making this claim. Seattle is less White than most of South King County.

I was citing the Wikipedia article for the city of Seattle, which also says Trump won 8.44% of the vote in 2016... It’s definitely possible South King County nonwhites swung R, but it doesn’t seem like that happened in Seattle itself.

Seattle City:

Biden: 88.45%
Trump: 9.11%

I guess I stand corrected. Looks like Trump gained in Seattle proper by a similar amount as in Portland proper after all?

[Skye]

I guess I stand corrected. Looks like Trump gained in Seattle proper by a similar amount as in Portland proper after all?

Just a tiny bit. The margin overall still grew in favor of Biden.

[mileslunn]

I guess I stand corrected. Looks like Trump gained in Seattle proper by a similar amount as in Portland proper after all?

Just a tiny bit. The margin overall still grew in favor of Biden.

In a lot of urban cores, Democrats were maxed out anyways so more a dead cat bounce for Trump.  Also raw vote margin still widened.  In urban cores, Democrats job is to increase turnout as not many votes left to win over.  Its in suburbs and rural areas they need to try and swing over votes and were successful in former but failed in latter.

[NOVA Green]

Ohio just dumped their official results, which is always cool since you can download the entire precinct data set in one Excel Workbook.

Here are the numbers for the (5) largest Cities in Ohio for 2020 GE PRES, contrasted against the 2016 GE numbers (I will run #6-10 in a little bit):

Welp---  Look at the PUB swings in Cleveland (!) not to mention Toledo and Akron.

1.) Columbus- 2020:

Delaware County:    
              Biden:      3,317    (61.0%)        +23.9% Biden        (+14.4% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:     2,021    (37.1%)
              Misc:           103    ( 1.9%)   
              Total:       5,441                         +26.7% from 2016 Total Votes
Fairfield County:
              Biden:     3,181    (68.2%)         +42.6% Biden        (+4.3% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:    1,195    (25.6%)
              Misc:          286    ( 6.1%)
              Total:      4,662                          +19.0% from 2016 Total Votes
Franklin County:
             Biden:     271,782  (71.0%)         +43.6% Biden        (+4.0% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:   104,835  (27.4%)
              Misc:          6,240 (  1.6%)     
              Total:     382,857                       +7.0% from 2016 Total Votes
Columbus Total:
              Biden:     278,280  (70.8%)        +43.3% Biden       (+4.1% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:    108,051  (27.5%)
              Misc:         6,629    ( 1.7%
              Total:      392,960                      +7.4% from 2016 Total Votes

Columbus- 2016:

 Delaware County:    
              HRC:        2,232    (52.0%)        +9.5% HRC
              Trump:     1,823    (42.5%)
              Misc:           239   ( 5.6%)   
              Total:       4,294
Fairfield County:
              HRC:        2,617     (66.8%)       +38.3% HRC
              Trump:     1,118     (28.5%)
              Misc:           183     ( 4.7%)
              Total:       3,918
Franklin County:
              HRC:      241,243    (67.4%)       +39.6% HRC
              Trump:     99,575    (27.8%)
              Misc:        16,908    ( 4.7%)
              Total:     357,726
Columbus Total:
              HRC:     246,092     (67,2%)      +39.2% HRC
              Trump:  102,516     (28.0%)
              Misc:       17,330     ( 4.7%)
              Total:    365,938
 
2.) Cleveland- 2020

              Biden:     111,639    (79.9%)        +61.0% Biden        (+8.0% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      26,431    (18.9%)
              Misc:           1,676   ( 1.2%)   
              Total:       139,746                         -6.0% from 2016 Total Votes

         Cleveland- 2016

               HRC:      123,767    (83.2%)       +69.0% HRC
              Trump:     21,137    (14.2%)
              Misc:         3,824     ( 2.6%)
              Total:      148,728

3.) Cincinnati- 2020

              Biden:     106,619    (77.3%)        +56.1% Biden        (+2.8% DEM Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      29,220    (21.2%)
              Misc:          2,126   ( 1.5%)   
              Total:       137,965                         +2.0% from 2016 Total Votes

          Cincinnati- 2016

              HRC:      100,866    (74.6%)       +53.3% HRC
              Trump:     28,797    (21.3%)
              Misc:        5,589    ( 4.1%)
              Total:      135,252

4.) Toledo- 2020

              Biden:       71,662   (66.2%)        +34.2% Biden        (+2.0% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      34,651   (32.0%)
              Misc:          1,943   ( 1.8%)   
              Total:       108,256                       -3.7% from 2016 Total Votes

          Toledo- 2016

              HRC:        73,610    (65.4%)       +36.2% HRC
              Trump:     32,857    (29.2%)
              Misc:        5,589    ( 4.1%)
              Total:      112,487

5.) Akron- 2020

              Biden:       53,835   (68.2%)        +37.9% Biden       (+1.8% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      23,884   (30.3%)
              Misc:          1,211   ( 1.5%)   
              Total:       78,930                      +1.8% from 2016 Total Votes

          Akron- 2016

              HRC:        52,746    (68.0%)       +39.7% HRC
              Trump:     21,928    (28.3%)
              Misc:        2,894      ( 3.7%)
              Total:      77,568

[mileslunn]

Here are the rest of the counties for each

rest of Franklin County:

Biden:  137,362 (54.3%)
Trump: 106,402 (42%)
Total: 253,199

Biden dominated Northern suburbs, but Southern which I think are more working class voted for Trump.  Westerville where Kasich comes from went for Biden by almost 15 points, while I believe Romney in 2012 won Westerville so Kasich was in line with many where he lived even if not in much of his state.

rest of Cuyahoga County

Biden: 304,537 (62%)
Trump: 172,268 (35.9%)
Total:  491,453

So lots of shifting similar to nationally.  Southern suburbs such as Parma which voted for Obama both times flipped to Trump in 2016 and stayed there in 2020.  By contrast the more affluent ones like Westlake and Bay Village went for McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 but Clinton in 2016 and Biden by a somewhat larger margin.  Otherwise affluent suburbs swung towards Biden but white working class swung hard to Trump in 2016 and stayed with him in 2020.

rest of Hamilton County

Biden:  139,647 (47%)
Trump: 149,089 (50.2%)
Total: 296,991

Long term if Democrats want to retake Ohio, they probably need to start getting Cincinnati suburbs to vote like other Midwestern suburbs as neighboring counties still went over 60% for Trump.  And even that might not be quite enough but make it closer and thus modest gains elsewhere needed.

rest of Lucas County

Biden:  43,749 (46.5%)
Trump:  47,112 (50%)
Total: 94,065

rest of Summit County

Biden: 97,833  (47.8%)
Trump: 100,949 (49.3%)
Total:  204,775

[NOVA Green]

Ohio just dumped their official results, which is always cool since you can download the entire precinct data set in one Excel Workbook.

Here are the numbers for the (6-10) largest Cities in Ohio for 2020 GE PRES, contrasted against the 2016 GE numbers:

6.) Dayton- 2020

              Biden:       36,712    (69.8%)        +41.3% Biden        (+0.7% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      14,984    (28.5%)
              Misc:             933    ( 1.8%)   
              Total:        52,629                        -3.4% from 2016 Total Votes

          Dayton- 2016

              HRC:        37,492    (68.8%)       +42.0% HRC
              Trump:     14,626    (26.8%)
              Misc:        5,589     (10.3%)
              Total:       54,500

7.) Parma- 2020

              Biden:       18,183   (46.7%)        +5.3% Trump      (+1.4% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:      20,253   (52.0%)
              Misc:             540   ( 1.4%)   
              Total:        38,976                      +9.5% from 2016 Total Votes

          Parma- 2016

              HRC:        16,268    (45.7%)       +3.9% Trump     
              Trump:     17,649    (49.6%)
              Misc:         1,672    (4.7%)
              Total:       35,589

8.) Canton- 2020

              Biden:       14,761   (59.1%)       +20.0% Biden    (+3.9% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:        9,759  (39.1%)
              Misc:             471  ( 1.4%)   
              Total:        24,991                     +0.6% from 2016 Total Votes

          Canton- 2016

              HRC:        14,740   (59.4%)       +23.9% HRC   
              Trump:       8,826   (35.5%)
              Misc:         1,267   (5.1%)
              Total:       24,833

9.) Youngstown- 2020

              Biden:       16,580  (73.4%)       +48.0% Biden    (+6.5% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:        5,733  (25.4%)
              Misc:             280  ( 1.2%)   
              Total:        22,593                     -7.2% from 2016 Total Votes

          Youngstown- 2016

              HRC:        18,499   (75.9%)       +54.5% HRC   
              Trump:       5,207   (21.4%)
              Misc:             656   (2.7%)
              Total:       24,362

10.) Lorain- 2020

              Biden:       14,922  (60.0%)       +21.5% Biden (+10.5% PUB Swing '16 > '20)
              Trump:        9,567  (38.5%)
              Misc:             375 ( 1.2%)   
              Total:        24,864                    +4.6% from 2016 Total Votes

          Lorain- 2016

              HRC:        15,192  (63.9%)       +32.0% HRC   
              Trump:       7,584   (31.9%)
              Misc:             656   (2.8%)
              Total:       23,772

[Wormless Gourd]

^ Underdiscused but that Lorain swing was probably brought about by the Puerto Rican population of the city and (probably) flipped the county to Trump.

[NOVA Green]

^ Underdiscused but that Lorain swing was probably brought about by the Puerto Rican population of the city and (probably) flipped the county to Trump.

Interesting!!!

Welcome to the Forum cringenat btw!!!!

[BaldEagle1991]

Harris County I have the following:  Trump did much better here than most city proper.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

May have been due to Biden's oil comments. Lot's of oil industry in eastern Houston + Harris County. On the other hand you got rapid growing suburbs in the northwest side near Cypress which has a lot of affluent college educated whites, but also lots of hispanics in many of the unincorporated parts of west Houston near Katy.

Of course I'm from the area so that's how I know a lot about it lol

Biden's oil comments would hurt him in Houston much more if the economy wasn't as super diversified today.

[mileslunn]

Here is rest of Montgomery County

rest of Montgomery County

Biden: 98,352 (45.1%)
Trump: 114,050 (52.3%)
Total:  217,902

[Seattle]

Seattle swung to Biden, along with pretty much every municipality in King thanks to consolidation of the extremely high level of 2016 third party performance (lots of places this was 8-12% of the vote.

It's also clear that there were South Seattle minority-heavy precincts that swung to Trump, sometimes quite dramatically. Precincts that voted 80% + Clinton, with Trump <10% ended up 75-25 at worst, or 80-20/high teens. Also notice how traditionally very democratic SeaTac didn't crack 70% for Biden?

With King county certification this past Tuesday, here's how King County cities voted (Bothell, Pacific, and Auburn results are inclusive of their appendages into Snohomish/Pierce counties):

Basic takeaway is that the Eastside now votes like inner suburbs (quite a few >80% Biden precincts in Shoreline/Lake Forest Park/Redmond(!)/Mercer Island.

City                      Biden                   Trump              Other
Seattle                  88.45                   9.11                2.43
Lake Forest Park    80.59                   16.38               3.02
Shoreline              78.92                   18.30               2.79
Mercer Island        75.89                    21.52              2.49
Redmond              74.84                    21.90              3.27
Kenmore               73.65                   23.25               3.10
Tukwila                 73.09                   24.23               2.68
Issaquah               72.82                   24.33               2.85
Kirkland                72.60                   24.23               3.17
Beaux Art Village    71.78                  24.07               4.15
Burien                   71.98                  25.33                2.69
Bellevue                71.30                   25.81               2.89
Sammamish          70.84                   26.25                2.91 (! Voted for Obama by like 5 in '12)
Yarrow Point          70.69                   26.29                3.02 (! Literally voted for Romney)
Woodinville            70.03                  26.79                 3.17

Newcastle              69.15                  27.71                 3.15
Bothell                  68.86                   27.77                3.37 (King Co portion is >70 Biden)
SeaTac                  69.12                   28.17                2.71
Renton                  68.98                   28.09                2.93
Normandy Park      68.00                   29.50                2.50
Duvall                   67.01                   28.95                4.05 (I think Romney won here too)
Des Moines            67.04                   30.21                2.75
Snoqualmie            65.75                  30.62                 3.62
Medina                  65.52                   31.71                2.77
Kent                      64.50                   32.32                3.18
Clyde Hill               63.73                   33.19                3.08 (Voted for Romney)
Federal Way           63.25                   33.86                2.89
Carnation               62.78                   33.15                4.07
North Bend             62.48                   33.60                3.92
Hunts Point             59.42                   39.29                1.30 (Voted for Romney)
Auburn                   57.90                   39.00                3.10 (Pierce part voted to the left of King)
Maple Valley            56.31                   39.95                3.74 (50/50 in 2012)
Covington               55.98                   40.38                 3.71 (50/50 in 2012)
Algona                    52.65                   45.38                1.97 (This 51-46 Kerry, has barely budged)
Pacific                     50.85                   46.14                3.01

Black Diamond         46.52                  50.54                 2.94
Enumclaw                43.93                  52.76                 3.30