Cities vs. rest of county
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  Cities vs. rest of county
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Author Topic: Cities vs. rest of county  (Read 25515 times)
mileslunn
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« on: November 11, 2020, 08:28:57 PM »

While not all precincts are up, wondering if anybody is able to provide the following.  Some will have to wait until counting finished.

Seattle vs. rest of King County
Portland vs. rest of Multnomah County
Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento County
Los Angeles vs. rest of Los Angeles County
San Diego vs. rest of San Diego County
Honolulu vs. rest of Honolulu county
Salt Lake City vs. rest of Salt Lake County
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark county
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa county
Albuquerque vs. rest of Bernalilo county
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
Oklahoma City vs. rest of Oklahoma County
Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa county
Dallas vs. rest of Dallas County
El Paso vs. rest of El Paso County
Houston vs. rest of Harris County
Austin vs. rest of Travis County
San Antonio vs. rest of Bexar County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County
Detroit vs. rest of Wayne County
Toledo vs. rest of Lucas County
Dayton vs. rest of Montgomery County
Columbus vs. rest of Franklin County
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby
Pittsburgh vs. rest of Allegheny County
Charlotte vs. rest of Mecklenburg County
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Atlanta vs. rest of Fulton County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval County
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough County
Orlando vs. rest of Orange County
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County

Remainder of large cities I already got or in case of New York way too many outstanding ballots to be accurate.

Any of them here would help.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2020, 08:40:39 PM »

Also Minneapolis vs. rest of Hennepin County
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2020, 08:42:22 PM »

There's a thread here that says Minneapolis voted 86% D (and to the left of San Francisco).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2020, 08:59:10 PM »

There's a thread here that says Minneapolis voted 86% D (and to the left of San Francisco).

What was rest of Hennepin County?  I am guessing except some exurbs on extreme west end Biden won most of them.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2020, 09:42:36 PM »

There's a thread here that says Minneapolis voted 86% D (and to the left of San Francisco).

What was rest of Hennepin County?  I am guessing except some exurbs on extreme west end Biden won most of them.

Have you tried the Atlas election results page? It has precinct level results for all of MN.

Anyways quick math with Atlas results show that Hennepin county was roughly 63% Biden to 35% Trump with Minneapolis removed
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2020, 10:09:16 PM »

There's a thread here that says Minneapolis voted 86% D (and to the left of San Francisco).

What was rest of Hennepin County?  I am guessing except some exurbs on extreme west end Biden won most of them.



Have you tried the Atlas election results page? It has precinct level results for all of MN.

Anyways quick math with Atlas results show that Hennepin county was roughly 63% Biden to 35% Trump with Minneapolis removed


Do they have 2020 data yet or just past elections?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2020, 02:07:24 AM »

I will post the Portland vs Multnomah County numbers once everything is complete--- Or possibly earlier...  (Vast majority of votes appear to be calculated, but since it's such a large pop county, my current assumption is that stuff might trickle in from other counties where ballots were dropped off at ballot drop boxes and have been shipped over to Multnomah).

I could run the current numbers, but I would have to manually tabulate data from all of the precincts, and plus repeat the exercise later on elsewhere. (So might take 30 Minutes rather than just grabbing the datasets in a CVS compatible file format, where it's simply a case of exporting to Excel, doing some Text to Columns, and then adding my precinct codes by Municipality).

I might run the numbers this weekend if I get a chance, and don't get sidetracked with other projects.

Fun Project!

Like where you're going with this---

You will be able to harvest all of your CA numbers by Municipality once CA posts it's Supplemental Statement of Votes Cast.

Some of the Midwest States also collect data by Municipality once votes are official (Wisconsin and Ohio, I believe are two such States)--- not totally sure about MI and IN, but once precinct results are official, I believe it's pretty straightforward to consolidate by Municipality.

Some of these other places get a bit tricky without doing detailed forensic analysis, where you start getting into stuff like split-precincts etc... (Oklahoma City I believe is one such example).

TX might be a bit tricky for similar reasons.

Haven't played around that much with FL, GA or NC outside of certain cities, so will need to look at 2020 precinct coding vs 2016 precinct coding to see various changes.

I will definitely be looking at the Omaha, Nebraska Final Results at some point.

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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2020, 12:34:14 AM »

Anybody have links where I can find these.  Some counties give precinct breakdowns but just by precinct # and don't say which municipality they are in while some break them down.  I found Cuyahoga County, Hamilton County, Milwaukee County, and Allegheny County so got those.  Franklin County, Ohio, Mecklenburg County, Miami-Dade County, and Multonomah County give precinct maps but do not show municipal boundaries but if someone provides those I could calculate them. 
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S019ian Liberal
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« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2020, 05:23:54 AM »

Interest dynamic.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2020, 10:59:15 AM »

It's not on your list, but I was still interested...Cook County is still counting ballots, but operations are run separately between Chicago and suburban Cook, so it is easy info to get. As of now...

Chicago: 83% Biden, 16% Trump
Suburban Cook: 66% Biden, 32% Trump
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2020, 03:37:14 PM »

Multnomah County, Oregon 2020:


Portland:

Trump:   51,633     (13.4%)        (+70.4% Biden)     +5.4% Biden Swing
Biden:  322,031     (83.8%)
Misc:     10,741      ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:  384,405



Non-Portland:

Trump: 31,090     (39.8%)        (+17.0% Biden)       +5.6% Biden Swing
Biden:  44,415     (56.8%)
Misc:     2,622      ( 3.4%)
TOTAL:  78,127

Multnomah County, Oregon 2016:

Portland:

Trump:   42,649    (12.8%)        (+65.0% HRC)
HRC:  259,753      (77.8%)
Misc:     31,131       (9.3%)
TOTAL:  333,533

Non-Portland:

Trump: 25,305     (38.6%)        (+11.4.% HRC)
HRC:  32,808     (50.0%)
Misc:      7,457     (11.4%)
TOTAL:  65,570 
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2020, 03:40:32 PM »

I don't have time to crunch the numbers right now, but if anyone else wants to do the math for Salt Lake city vs. county, here you go: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/UT/Salt_Lake/107137/Web02.264677/#/cid/10?undefined
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mileslunn
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« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2020, 04:24:10 PM »

Multnomah County, Oregon 2020:


Portland:

Trump:   51,633     (13.4%)        (+70.4% Biden)     +5.4% Biden Swing
Biden:  322,031     (83.8%)
Misc:     10,741      ( 2.8%)
TOTAL:  384,405



Non-Portland:

Trump: 31,090     (39.8%)        (+17.0% Biden)       +5.6% Biden Swing
Biden:  44,415     (56.8%)
Misc:     2,622      ( 3.4%)
TOTAL:  78,127

Multnomah County, Oregon 2016:

Portland:

Trump:   42,649    (12.8%)        (+65.0% HRC)
HRC:  259,753      (77.8%)
Misc:     31,131       (9.3%)
TOTAL:  333,533

Non-Portland:

Trump: 25,305     (38.6%)        (+11.4.% HRC)
HRC:  32,808     (50.0%)
Misc:      7,457     (11.4%)
TOTAL:  65,570 

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2020, 04:34:21 PM »

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

This is probably the norm. Multnomah County suburbs are basically just Gresham--which is pretty WWC and far from Downtown. By contrast, Beaverton/Tigard/Bethany are super educated and actually much closer to the urban core.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2020, 04:36:34 PM »

I don't have time to crunch the numbers right now, but if anyone else wants to do the math for Salt Lake city vs. county, here you go: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/UT/Salt_Lake/107137/Web02.264677/#/cid/10?undefined

Thanks, I can go from there.  I don't have exact numbers but a few I ran earlier were

Milwaukee County

Biden 79%
Trump 19%

Rest of county

Biden 58%
Trump 40%

Jackson County, Missouri

Kansas City

Biden 78.5% 106,470
Trump 19.3% 26,166

rest of Jackson County

Trump 50.9%
Biden 46.8%

Cuyahoga County

Cleveland

Biden 81%
Trump 18%

Rest of Cuyahoga County

Biden 62%
Trump 36%

Hamilton County, Ohio

Cincinnati

Biden 78%
Trump 21%

Rest of Hamilton County

Trump 51%
Biden 47%

Allegheny County

Pittsburgh

Biden 78%
Trump 21%

Rest of Allegheny County

Biden 54%
Trump 44%

Fulton County, Georgia

Atlanta

Biden 79%
Trump 19%

Rest of Fulton County

Biden 66%
Trump 33%

These are approximate as I ran earlier but could run for more details earlier if you want exact decimal.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #15 on: November 16, 2020, 04:52:51 PM »

Biden won both Salt Lake City, but also even narrowly won rest of Salt Lake County but north/south split with northern suburbs going for Biden, southern for Trump.  My understanding is in 2012, Romney carried just about every suburb.  But then again he is a Mormon while Trump has never been well liked by Mormon community

Salt Lake City

Biden 77% - 72,761
Trump 19.8% 18,705

Rest of Salt Lake County

Biden 48.1% 216,528 votes
Trump 46.9% 210,850 votes
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forza nocta
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« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2020, 05:00:24 PM »

Interesting to see how all the cities listed are almost exactly 80/20 Biden
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Skye
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« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2020, 05:01:32 PM »

I don't have time to crunch the numbers right now, but if anyone else wants to do the math for Salt Lake city vs. county, here you go: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/UT/Salt_Lake/107137/Web02.264677/#/cid/10?undefined

Salt Lake City:

Biden: 72,761 - 76.37%
Trump:  18,705 - 19.63%

Rest of Salt Lake County:

Biden: 216,528 - 48.12%
Trump: 210,850 - 46.86%


Awwww man, beat me to it Sad

Do you know where I can find precinct results for the county for the 2012 Pres. Election? I checked the county clerk site but it only has the overall results.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2020, 05:28:45 PM »

Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County

Indianapolis and Marion County are synonymous. Marion County beyond some administrative functions does not exist independently.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #19 on: November 16, 2020, 06:22:50 PM »

Interesting to see how all the cities listed are almost exactly 80/20 Biden

Yeah it is interesting although to be fair I think you can only max out so far so that is probably why.  It seems pretty much every demographic in urban cores hates Trump while his slight gains amongst minorities but loss amongst urban whites is why you are seeing convergence.
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Kamala's side hoe
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« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2020, 06:28:21 PM »

Interesting Multonomah county suburbs went more Republican than Washington County, any reason why?  Even with Clackamas County, pretty sure Trump got under 40% if you take only the suburban parts as he likely won big in the rural parts thus why overall numbers at 43%.

This is probably the norm. Multnomah County suburbs are basically just Gresham--which is pretty WWC and far from Downtown. By contrast, Beaverton/Tigard/Bethany are super educated and actually much closer to the urban core.

Easternmost Portland smoothly transitions into Gresham around 9 miles east of downtown. By contrast, the Washington County suburbs are separated from the downtown core by a low mountain range.

45 didn’t actually lose any support from 2016, although it doesn’t seem like he made super obvious gains with PDX area nonwhites either. The jump from 80s-10s Biden to 70s-20s Biden east of 82nd Ave is similar to what we saw in the Dem primaries.  I think the 53-45 Biden precinct is a relatively White precinct in easternmost Portland?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2020, 06:31:16 PM »

Here is for Mecklenburg County so if anyone can give me municipal boundaries https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=60&contest_id=1373 I can calculate this.  It just gives numbers no municipal boundaries.  Same for Raleigh as well.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2020, 06:43:16 PM »

Got Franklin County, Ohio

Columbus

Biden 70.3% (260,008 votes)
Trump 27.2% (100,553 votes)

Rest of Franklin County

Biden 54.9% (131,576 votes)
Trump 42.8% (102,601 votes)

So looks like in Ohio, Cuyahoga County suburbs went pretty strongly for Biden although Trump did win a number in the southern part which is very white working class, lots with Italian and Eastern European descent, but got clobbered in the heavily African-American ones, but also lost all the lakeside ones which are more upper middle class, college educated whites.  For Franklin County, also went for Biden but Trump got over 40% in the Franklin County suburbs.  Only Hamilton county suburbs did Trump win and even there it was a lot closer than normal.

So it seems in Ohio, Biden is gaining in suburbs, but rural areas and smaller urban centers are killing the Democrats thus why losing state.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2020, 06:48:28 PM »

Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County

Indianapolis and Marion County are synonymous. Marion County beyond some administrative functions does not exist independently.

Speedway and Beech Grove are independent cities, though they participate in the City-County government. Those are also some pretty Republican areas, so Indianapolis would be to the left of Marion County as a whole.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2020, 07:44:40 PM »

Here is Pima County but fails to give municipal boundaries so anyone who has precinct #'s I can calculate this https://webcms.pima.gov/government/elections_department/
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