2020 House Vote by State

[ElectionsGuy]

2018 Thread

Alabama

Republicans: 1,416,012 (69.0%) (1 unconested)
Democrats: 608,809 (29.7%) (2 uncontested)

Swing From 2018: R+21.4
Compared to President: R+13.9

Alaska

Republicans: 192,126 (54.4%)
Democrats: 159,856 (45.3%)

Swing From 2018: R+2.5%
Compared to President: D+0.9%

Arizona

Republicans: 1,638,596 (50.1%)
Democrats: 1,629,337 (49.9%)

Swing From 2018: R+1.9%
Compared to President: R+0.5%

Arkansas

Republicans: 828,266 (70.2%)
Democrats: 330,485 (28.0%) (1 uncontested)

Swing From 2018: R+14.8%
Compared to President: R+14.6%

California

Democrats: 11,083,738 (66.3%)
Republicans: 5,640,215 (33.7%) (7 with no candidate)

Swing From 2018: R+0.5%
Compared to President: D+3.4%

Colorado

Democrats: 1,679,052(53.1%)
Republicans: 1,378,248 (43.6%)

Swing From 2018: R+0.9%
Compared to President: R+4.0%

Connecticut

Democrats: 1,060,231 (59.8%)
Republicans: 682,662 (38.5%)

Swing From 2018: R+2.6%
Compared to President: D+1.3%

Delaware

Democrats: 281,382 (57.6%)
Republicans: 196,392 (40.2%)

Swing From 2018: R+11.6%
Compared to President: R+1.6%

Florida

Republicans: 5,469,164 (52.3%) (No votes counted in FL-25)
Democrats: 4,942,287 (47.2%) (2 uncontested seats)

Swing From 2018: D+0.1%
Compared to President: R+1.8%

Georgia

Republicans: 2,490,396 (51.0%)
Democrats: 2,393,089 (49.0%)

Swing From 2018: D+2.6%
Compared to President: R+2.2%

Hawaii

Democrats: 354,451 (67.4%)
Republicans: 155,022 (29.5%)

Swing From 2018: R+14.6%
Compared to President: D+8.5%

Idaho

Republicans: 561,405 (66.1%)
Democrats: 255,531 (30.1%)

Swing From 2018: R+9.0%
Compared to President: R+5.2%

Illinois

Democrats: 3,355,487 (57.1%)
Republicans: 2,416,929 (41.1%) (1 uncontested)

Swing From 2018: R+6.1%
Compared to President: R+0.9%

Indiana

Republicans: 1,735,293 (57.9%)
Democrats: 1,197,161 (40.0%)

Swing From 2018: R+6.9%
Compared to President: R+1.9%

Iowa

Republicans: 859,418 (52.4%)
Democrats: 762,271 (46.5%)

Swing From 2018: R+9.9%
Compared to President: D+2.3%

Kansas

Republicans: 775,898 (57.1%)
Democrats: 557,258 (41.0%)

Swing From 2018: R+6.7%
Compared to President: R+1.5%

Kentucky

Republicans: 1,363,964 (64.5%)
Democrats: 735,419 (34.8%)

Swing From 2018: R+9.1%
Compared to President: R+3.8%

Louisiana

Republicans: 1,244,254 (61.5%)
Democrats: 727,402 (36.0%)

Swing From 2018: R+6.2%
Compared to President: R+6.9%

Maine

Democrats: 468,978 (58.0%)
Republicans: 340,236 (42.0%)

Swing From 2018: D+1.0%
Compared to President: D+6.9%

Maryland

Democrats: 1,912,740 (64.7%)
Republicans: 1,028,150 (34.8%)

Swing From 2018: R+3.1%
Compared to President: R+3.3%

Massachusetts

Democrats: 2,482,596 (74.6%)
Republicans: 699,001 (21.0%) (4 uncontested)

Swing From 2018: R+4.6%
Compared to President: D+20.1%

Michigan

Democrats: 2,688,527 (49.6%)
Republicans: 2,617,881 (48.3%)

Swing From 2018: R+6.5%
Compared to President: R+1.5%

Minnesota

Democrats: 1,554,365 (48.7%)
Republicans: 1,474,806 (46.2%)

Swing From 2018: R+8.9%
Compared to President: R+4.6%

Mississippi

Republicans: 806,859 (65.7%)
Democrats: 421,121 (34.3%) (1 uncontested)

Swing From 2018: R+23.7%
Compared to President: R+14.9%

Missouri

Republicans: 1,723,982 (58.0%)
Democrats: 1,172,135 (39.4%)

Swing From 2018: R+6.1%
Compared to President: R+3.3%

Montana

Republicans: 339,169 (56.4%)
Democrats: 262,340 (43.6%)

Swing From 2018: R+8.1%
Compared to President: D+3.6%

Nebraska

Republicans: 585,234 (62.2%)
Democrats: 326,018 (34.6%)

Swing From 2018: R+3.6%
Compared to President: R+8.5%

Nevada

Democrats: 665,526 (49.1%)
Republicans: 633,827 (46.8%)

Swing From 2018: R+2.8%
Compared to President: R+0.1%

New Hampshire

Democrats: 413,469 (52.6%)
Republicans: 353,650 (45.0%)

Swing From 2018: R+3.0%
Compared to President: D+0.3%

New Jersey

Democrats: 2,539,128 (57.3%)
Republicans: 1,843,047 (41.6%)

Swing From 2018: R+5.5%
Compared to President: R+0.2%

New Mexico

Democrats: 495,781 (54.9%)
Republicans: 407,786 (45.1%)

Swing From 2018: R+10.3%
Compared to President: R+1.0%

New York

Democrats: 5,096,939 (62.0%)
Republicans: 3,025,494 (36.8%) (1 uncontested)

Swing From 2018: R+10.7%
Compared to President: D+2.1%

North Carolina

Democrats: 2,660,535 (50.0%)
Republicans: 2,631,336 (49.4%) (1 uncontested)

Swing From 2018: D+2.7%
Compared to President: D+1.9%

North Dakota

Republicans: 245,229 (69.0%)
Democrats: 97,970 (27.6%)

Swing From 2018: R+16.8%
Compared to President: R+8.1%

Ohio

Republicans: 3,252,887 (56.5%)
Democrats: 2,451,500 (42.5%)

Swing From 2018: R+9.3%
Compared to President: R+5.9%

Oklahoma

Republicans: 1,044,175 (67.3%)
Democrats: 475,731 (30.7%)

Swing From 2018: R+10.9%
Compared to President: R+3.5%

Oregon

Democrats: 1,285,339 (55.7%)
Republicans: 966,786 (41.9%)

Swing From 2018: R+5.6%
Compared to President: R+2.3%

Pennsylvania

Republicans: 3,434,009 (50.6%)
Democrats: 3,350,459 (49.4%)

Swing From 2018: R+11.4%
Compared to President: R+2.4%

Rhode Island

Democrats: 312,636 (64.0%)
Republicans: 109,894 (22.5%) (1 uncontested)

Swing From 2018: D+11.3%
Compared to President: D+20.7%

South Carolina

Republicans: 1,412,684 (56.4%)
Democrats: 1,076,799 (43.0%)

Swing From 2018: R+3.5%
Compared to President: R+1.7%

South Dakota

Republicans: 321,984 (81.0%)
Democrats: 0 (0.0%) (Uncontested)

Swing From 2018: R+56.7%
Compared to President: R+30.5%

Tennessee

Republicans: 1,685,255 (59.3%) (1 uncontested)
Democrats: 1,105,537 (38.9%)
 
Swing From 2018: R+0.4%
Compared to President: D+2.8%

Texas

Republicans: 5,926,712 (53.4%)
Democrats: 4,896,673 (44.1%)

Swing From 2018: R+5.9%
Compared to President: R+3.7%

Utah

Republicans: 873,347 (61.0%)
Democrats: 505,946 (35.3%)

Swing From 2018: R+2.5%
Compared to President: R+5.2%

Vermont

Democrats: 238,827 (67.3%)
Republicans: 95,830 (27.0%)

Swing From 2018: R+2.9%
Compared to President: D+4.9%

Virginia

Democrats: 2,253,974 (52.0%) (1 uncontested)
Republicans: 2,047,635 (47.2%)

Swing From 2018: R+9.1%
Compared to President: R+5.3%

Washington

Democrats: 2,340,356 (59.3%)
Republicans: 1,545,436 (39.2%) (1 with no candidate)

Swing From 2018: R+7.7%
Compared to President: D+0.9%

West Virginia

Republicans: 514,268 (67.6%)
Democrats: 246,903 (32.4%)

Swing From 2018: R+17.5%
Compared to President: D+3.7%

Wisconsin

Republicans: 1,661,399 (51.3%)
Democrats: 1,566,671 (48.4%)

Swing From 2018: R+10.5%
Compared to President: R+3.5%

Wyoming

Republicans: 185,732 (68.6%)
Democrats: 66,576 (24.6%)

Swing From 2018: R+10.2%
Compared to President: R+0.7%

National

Democrats: 77,545,341 (50.8%)
Republicans: 72,877,981 (47.7%)

Swing From 2018: R+5.5%
Compared to President: R+1.3%

Partisan Margins

>30%: 0-4.9%
>40%: 5-9.9%
>50%: 10-14.9%
>60%: 15-19.9%
>70%: 20-24.9%
>80%: 25-29.9%
>90%: 30%+

Swing From 2018

>30%: 0-4.9%
>40%: 5-9.9%
>50%: 10-14.9%
>60%: 15-19.9%
>70%: 20-24.9%
>80%: 25-29.9%
>90%: 30%+

"Trend From 2018" is a one shade movement to the left (5.5%) in almost every instance.

Compared to President

>30%: 0-4.9%
>40%: 5-9.9%
>50%: 10-14.9%
>60%: 15-19.9%
>70%: 20-24.9%
>80%: 25-29.9%
>90%: 30%+

Partisan Lean Relative to Nation

>30%: 0-4.9%
>40%: 5-9.9%
>50%: 10-14.9%
>60%: 15-19.9%
>70%: 20-24.9%
>80%: 25-29.9%
>90%: 30%+

[Annatar]

The gap in WI and PA between the GOP house vote margin vs Trump is pretty notable, a few points in both cases.

This is now the 3rd election in a row where the GOP house vote has run ahead of the GOP presidential vote, in 2012 the GOP house vote ran 2.7% of Romney, in 2016 it ran 3.2% ahead of Trump and this year so far it is running 2.3% ahead of Trump.

One point I would make about the swing in the house vote is in 2018 the GOP left a lot of seats uncontested unlike this year so some of the gain in the house vote is just them putting up candidates.

[Frenchrepublican]

The gap in WI and PA between the GOP house vote margin vs Trump is pretty notable, a few points in both cases.

This is now the 3rd election in a row where the GOP house vote has run ahead of the GOP presidential vote, in 2012 the GOP house vote ran 2.7% of Romney, in 2016 it ran 3.2% ahead of Trump and this year so far it is running 2.3% ahead of Trump.

One point I would make about the swing in the house vote is in 2018 the GOP left a lot of seats uncontested unlike this year so some of the gain in the house vote is just them putting up candidates.

It's a bit logical when you think about it, moderate republicans who dislike Trump can safely vote for a '' good '' republican congressional candidate while voting D / third party at the presidential level.

[VAR]

Looking forward to seeing the swing in Iowa! Lol

Anyway, so far Iowa is R+6.

[iceman]

Pretty sure the DEMs won North Carolina

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looking forward to seeing the swing in Iowa! Lol

Anyway, so far Iowa is R+6.

I doubt that will hold relative to the nation, but that would mean it trended D. So much for it zooming right.

[ElectionsGuy]

I've done the states so far that are certified. I will continue to work on this in the days ahead.

It looks like the GOP will win the House vote in Arizona by less than 10k. So AZ, GA, PA, and WI will be House GOP/Biden states, while NC will be the only House Dem/Trump state due to an uncontested race.

[VAR]

Dominating in Texas!

[Benjamin Frank]

I have the same thread topic
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=415111.0

[jamestroll]

Virginia being so close is surprising

[Sir Mohamed]

Pretty sure the DEMs won North Carolina

I wish Cunningham had won instead. Dude was a medicore candidate.

[iceman]

Minnesota being close was very surprising. Republicans winning Pennsylvania was even more surprising!

[Calthrina950]

Minnesota being close was very surprising. Republicans winning Pennsylvania was even more surprising!

Fitzpatrick's 13-pt. landslide in PA-01 probably helped them.

[Bootes Void]

For Minnesota, the legal marijuana party took alot of votes

[ElectionsGuy]

Updated.

For every state that isn't certified, I put the percentage but not the number of votes, as I don't expect these percentages to change all that much. I'll still check them for sure after certification. But this thing is close to over, the maps are done. I'm thinking of doing a few more maps for good measure.

[jamestroll]

I will not worry too much about the relative close Virginia house popular vote.

[EastwoodS]

Minnesota being close was very surprising. Republicans winning Pennsylvania was even more surprising!

Why? Pennsylvania is trending R fast.

[ElectionsGuy]

I will not worry too much about the relative close Virginia house popular vote.

It would've been larger had they contested VA-09, maybe 7-8 points.

[prag_prog]

Minnesota being close was very surprising. Republicans winning Pennsylvania was even more surprising!

The Weed parties took around atleast 5%+ in every seat they contested...highest was Omar's seat where they took around nearly 10%. They got around 6% even in Peterson's seat

[bagelman]

2020 house vote as EC with flips from 2018.



Shows how Dems are lucky to control the chamber.

2018 could be the last time in a number of cycles that IA votes D.

[Tekken_Guy]

2020 house vote as EC with flips from 2018.



Shows how Dems are lucky to control the chamber.

2018 could be the last time in a number of cycles that IA votes D.

Would R’s have won NC if they contested the 12th?

[bagelman]

2020 house vote as EC with flips from 2018.



Shows how Dems are lucky to control the chamber.

2018 could be the last time in a number of cycles that IA votes D.

Would R’s have won NC if they contested the 12th?

Dems won NC by 29,199 votes.

I would say the GOP wins NC if they can manage at least 20-25% in the 12th.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm fully finished with this thread. Overall, there's a lot of useful numbers here that are going to be a good reference for assessing elections going forward. The house election results in 2020 were some of the most unexpected prior to the election by the media and the pundits, even moreso than the presidential results and the senate results, and I suspect that may continue to be the case in 2022 with redistricting as a wild card.

[Georg Ebner]

[MT Treasurer]

MN being this close (and closer than NV) is honestly very surprising.