Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Frenchrepublican]

How would you rate a Cox / McAuliffe matchup ?

[Frenchrepublican]

any insights on riggleman?

He might run as either Republican or independent. He would stand as much chance as Kirk Cox statewide. Basically, decent but not favored.

In this case the race would be close to Safe D.

[Frenchrepublican]

Could be interesting if democrats nominate this dude.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1327632164968681474?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Could be interesting if democrats nominate this dude.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1327632164968681474?s=20

Stupid is as stupid does

Why I’m stupid ? Politically extreme / very ideological candidates - Jealous / Kobach / Gillum - don’t have a particularly strong electoral record in gubernatorial races.

[Frenchrepublican]

Could be interesting if democrats nominate this dude.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1327632164968681474?s=20

Stupid is as stupid does

Why I’m stupid ? Politically extreme / very ideological candidates - Jealous / Kobach / Gillum - don’t have a particularly strong electoral record in gubernatorial races.

He's a memelord one step above Joshua Collins or Aaron Coleman, and he's going to get 10-15% in the primary max if he runs.

If he gets the nomination somehow, yeah, he loses. But he's not getting the nomination.

Sure, VA democratic voters are establishment friendly so it's unlikely that he will get the nomination but you can't totally rule out this possibility either especially if the field is split between numerous candidates.

[Frenchrepublican]

Can probably cross him off the list
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1332748482109698049?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

You can cross her name off the list
https://twitter.com/BarbaraComstock/status/1333872209710952448?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably looking at a Likely D race. I'll predict the margin to be 8 points.

I doubt that the democratic candidate would win by eight points if Cox is the republican nominee, yeah it’s true that in 2017 Northam won by 9 points but the climate should be less dem friendly than four years ago.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably looking at a Likely D race. I'll predict the margin to be 8 points.

I doubt that the democratic candidate would win by eight points if Cox is the republican nominee, yeah it’s true that in 2017 Northam won by 9 points but the climate should be less dem friendly than four years ago.

Possible, but considering that Biden won VA by ''only'' 10 points and that the state congressional vote was D+5 (closer to D+6 if you take into account VA 9), a double digit dem win seems unlikely.

D+8 =/= double-digit win.

What is your point ??


Northam won by 9 points so if the democratic candidate does better than him by definition it would be a dem double digit win or very close to that

[Frenchrepublican]

A future governor Pete ?

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1338920505269686273?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably looking at a Likely D race. I'll predict the margin to be 8 points.

I doubt that the democratic candidate would win by eight points if Cox is the republican nominee, yeah it’s true that in 2017 Northam won by 9 points but the climate should be less dem friendly than four years ago.

If trends are strong enough, which in Virginia they very much are, it's very possible the Dem this year outperforms Northam.

Possible, but considering that Biden won VA by ''only'' 10 points and that the state congressional vote was D+5 (closer to D+6 if you take into account VA 9) a double digit dem win seems unlikely.

[Frenchrepublican]

^Dude, the person suggesting that he would do better than Northam wasn’t Chips (who predicted D+8), and you literally quoted yourself in that post. I think you meant to quote KaiserDave.

D+8 is a completely realistic prediction, as this is certainly not the kind of state where there’s a large pool of persuadable voters who will flock to the GOP because it’ll be a ‘Biden midterm.’ The Democratic base in VA is very inflexible and tends to turnout even in off-year elections.

Oops, yeah I wanted to quote KaiserDave

[Frenchrepublican]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10. 

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.

[Frenchrepublican]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10. 

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.

with the growth in Northern Virginia a ten point win is possible.

It is possible but it doesn't mean it's likely.