Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Terlylane]

Will McAuliffe lose any counties in the primary?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will McAuliffe lose any counties in the primary?

Probably.

[Oryxslayer]

Will McAuliffe lose any counties in the primary?

I will be surprised if he wins Petersburg for example, but that isn't a county.

[Terlylane]

Will McAuliffe lose any counties in the primary?

I will be surprised if he wins Petersburg for example, but that isn't a county.

I should have phrased my question as counties or independent cities.

[Roll Roons]

Virginia counts quickly right? So will we have a good idea of LG on Tuesday? Governor should be a lock for McAuliffe and Herring looks like a clear favorite for AG.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

Ehhh... I think it's kind of a cool ideosyncracy.  If they are going to reform something, they should get rid of the odd-year elections for state offices and move Governor/LG/AG to presidential years. 

I actually like that. It gives us election nerds something to follow every year. Plus as someone who follows New Jersey politics, it's nice that things are less nationalized because they don't coincide with midterms or presidential years.

As I understand it, Alben just wants to get rid of the one term limit. I definitely agree with that. As for the off year election, they can keep this for election nerds.

Imo gubernatorial and local elections should mostly take place in offyear  elections as it would reduce polarization as things are less nationalized than presidential and midterm years.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

which is not evidence.

I never said it was. I was more making a crack

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia counts quickly right? So will we have a good idea of LG on Tuesday? Governor should be a lock for McAuliffe and Herring looks like a clear favorite for AG.

I doubt LG will be called quickly since there is no apparent favorite. Traditionally Virginia had counted quickly since prior to 2020 you could only vote absentee if you had a valid reason, which meant very few ballots were outstanding after in-person voting took place. The thing that will slow down the LG count this year (and likely any call): your vote by absentee/mail ballot must be postmarked by Election Day; Tuesday, June 8 and must be received by your General Registrar’s office by Friday, June 11 by noon.

Mail ballots as a % of the total primary vote will not be anything close to mail ballots as a % of the 2020 GE or primaries, so it should go faster than 2020. 

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/GaryChambersJr/status/1401568095198715911

Game changer.  Lee Carter probably in tears now.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Honestly if VA dems get smart they could carve Carroll-Foy a seat in the House and kick out Rob Wittman, she really deserves it.

[Spectator]

Honestly if VA dems get smart they could carve Carroll-Foy a seat in the House and kick out Rob Wittman, she really deserves it.

They unilaterally disarmed their gerrymandering powers.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Honestly if VA dems get smart they could carve Carroll-Foy a seat in the House and kick out Rob Wittman, she really deserves it.

They unilaterally disarmed their gerrymandering powers.

Ugh

[Sir Mohamed]

I wish we soon get a bunch of GE polls. There haven't been any in recent weeks or even in months.

[jamestroll]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

That FB group I am in, called Reopen Virginia, has become very quiet and almost dead since all covid restrictions have been lifted. But with all respect, every single special election since Biden's election has shown massive swings of educated whites to the GOP.

[CityofSinners]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

That FB group I am in, called Reopen Virginia, has become very quiet and almost dead since all covid restrictions have been lifted. But with all respect, every single special election since Biden's election has shown massive swings of educated whites to the GOP.

In NM-1 educated whites stayed even at least if not outright swung towards dems.

[wbrocks67]

Lt. Gov. race is a mess because their ads all look the same: "I voted for healthcare, I support abortion rights, I like the environment."

Don't know anything about Levine but his ads are 100% focused on gun control which seems pretty wise.  I could see him doing unexpectedly well because he's the only one distinguishing himself.  

Just saw another Trumpkin ad.  This guy is just plain awful.

I mean Trumpkin will basically blanket the Northern Virginia media market and with college educated whites fleeing the Democrats rapidly it is not hard to see Youngkin winning, unfortunately. Though I doubt he will even be competitive in Nova.

huh???

Perhaps its based on analysis from the Facebook group he frequents?

That FB group I am in, called Reopen Virginia, has become very quiet and almost dead since all covid restrictions have been lifted. But with all respect, every single special election since Biden's election has shown massive swings of educated whites to the GOP.

this is not true at all

[Lambsbread]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1402247226672533505?s=21

[wbrocks67]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

Yeah, agreed. McAuliffe is totally fine but I feel like Caroll Foy would've been an amazing candidate. It's really too bad.

[Skill and Chance]

Update: as of now, there are about 35K mail ballots outstanding that theoretically could arrive today or within the postmark deadline if mailed today.  

[DINGO Joe]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

The election is free and fair one.  Turnout will be very ordinary.  It's up to the candidate to win, not have something "given" to them.

[tjstarling]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

This is silly and infuriating logic. I received a flier from the McClellan folks which basically focused on “vote for me because I’d be the first black woman governor”. That would be a wonderful personal accomplishment for her and would undoubtedly be historic, but why on earth should that motivate me to vote for a person who should be emphasizing how they are going to RUN my state competently. Government shouldn’t be about giving someone a position because they meet a fun ideological or racial quota (and it is particularly insulting to say “oh, just give it to the black folks” when minority candidates have much to offer voters beyond their race). So, no, a white man who demonstrated competent governance during his tenure and (as far as I know) never asked any of the other candidates to “give” him the nomination since he’s done the job before shouldn’t stand aside anymore than JCF or McClellan or even Fairfax should have stood aside for him.

[Lambsbread]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

The election is free and fair one.  Turnout will be very ordinary.  It's up to the candidate to win, not have something "given" to them.

Yes, surely Terry McAuliffe, a former Governor and chair of the DNC, has no inherent advantage over a former state delegate at all for any reason.

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

This is silly and infuriating logic. I received a flier from the McClellan folks which basically focused on “vote for me because I’d be the first black woman governor”. That would be a wonderful personal accomplishment for her and would undoubtedly be historic, but why on earth should that motivate me to vote for a person who should be emphasizing how they are going to RUN my state competently. Government shouldn’t be about giving someone a position because they meet a fun ideological or racial quota (and it is particularly insulting to say “oh, just give it to the black folks” when minority candidates have much to offer voters beyond their race). So, no, a white man who demonstrated competent governance during his tenure and (as far as I know) never asked any of the other candidates to “give” him the nomination since he’s done the job before shouldn’t stand aside anymore than JCF or McClellan or even Fairfax should have stood aside for him.

Yes, it is entirely a coincidence that no black woman has ever served as Governor of any state. There simply has just never been a competent enough black woman to run and they lost simply on merit and no other factors. And the shortage of black women in politics in general is the same situation. And there is no unique perspective that a black woman could offer beyond a white man whose previous jobs include, as I mentioned, serving as Governor of a state, chairing the DNC, and making millions in banking, real estate, and venture capital. Oh, and being super good friends with a former President and First Lady/Secretary of State.

JCF will lose because she didn't prove to people that she's competent. That's it.

[tjstarling]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

The election is free and fair one.  Turnout will be very ordinary.  It's up to the candidate to win, not have something "given" to them.

Yes, surely Terry McAuliffe, a former Governor and chair of the DNC, has no inherent advantage over a former state delegate at all for any reason.

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

This is silly and infuriating logic. I received a flier from the McClellan folks which basically focused on “vote for me because I’d be the first black woman governor”. That would be a wonderful personal accomplishment for her and would undoubtedly be historic, but why on earth should that motivate me to vote for a person who should be emphasizing how they are going to RUN my state competently. Government shouldn’t be about giving someone a position because they meet a fun ideological or racial quota (and it is particularly insulting to say “oh, just give it to the black folks” when minority candidates have much to offer voters beyond their race). So, no, a white man who demonstrated competent governance during his tenure and (as far as I know) never asked any of the other candidates to “give” him the nomination since he’s done the job before shouldn’t stand aside anymore than JCF or McClellan or even Fairfax should have stood aside for him.

Yes, it is entirely a coincidence that no black woman has ever served as Governor of any state. There simply has just never been a competent enough black woman to run and they lost simply on merit and no other factors. And the shortage of black women in politics in general is the same situation. And there is no unique perspective that a black woman could offer beyond a white man whose previous jobs include, as I mentioned, serving as Governor of a state, chairing the DNC, and making millions in banking, real estate, and venture capital. Oh, and being super good friends with a former President and First Lady/Secretary of State.

JCF will lose because she didn't prove to people that she's competent. That's it.

No one said she wasn’t competent or that minority candidates don’t face obstacles that white candidates don’t have to overcome - they absolutely do. The discussion is whether or not one candidate should just step aside for another. You list the things McAuliffe has done over the years (which your tone seems to indicate that you don’t seem to think too highly of) and maybe you should reflect on the fact that this may be the reason he’s an attractive candidate to many people (including, if I had to guess, black woman) and likely to run away with the nomination as opposed to any “unique” perspective or experience JCF may or may not offer.

[Lambsbread]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

The election is free and fair one.  Turnout will be very ordinary.  It's up to the candidate to win, not have something "given" to them.

Yes, surely Terry McAuliffe, a former Governor and chair of the DNC, has no inherent advantage over a former state delegate at all for any reason.

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

This is silly and infuriating logic. I received a flier from the McClellan folks which basically focused on “vote for me because I’d be the first black woman governor”. That would be a wonderful personal accomplishment for her and would undoubtedly be historic, but why on earth should that motivate me to vote for a person who should be emphasizing how they are going to RUN my state competently. Government shouldn’t be about giving someone a position because they meet a fun ideological or racial quota (and it is particularly insulting to say “oh, just give it to the black folks” when minority candidates have much to offer voters beyond their race). So, no, a white man who demonstrated competent governance during his tenure and (as far as I know) never asked any of the other candidates to “give” him the nomination since he’s done the job before shouldn’t stand aside anymore than JCF or McClellan or even Fairfax should have stood aside for him.

Yes, it is entirely a coincidence that no black woman has ever served as Governor of any state. There simply has just never been a competent enough black woman to run and they lost simply on merit and no other factors. And the shortage of black women in politics in general is the same situation. And there is no unique perspective that a black woman could offer beyond a white man whose previous jobs include, as I mentioned, serving as Governor of a state, chairing the DNC, and making millions in banking, real estate, and venture capital. Oh, and being super good friends with a former President and First Lady/Secretary of State.

JCF will lose because she didn't prove to people that she's competent. That's it.

No one said she wasn’t competent or that minority candidates don’t face obstacles that white candidates don’t have to overcome - they absolutely do. The discussion is whether or not one candidate should just step aside for another. You list the things McAuliffe has done over the years (which your tone seems to indicate that you don’t seem to think too highly of) and maybe you should reflect on the fact that this may be the reason he’s an attractive candidate to many people (including, if I had to guess, black woman) and likely to run away with the nomination as opposed to any “unique” perspective or experience JCF may or may not offer.

I think T-Mac is fine, but we can do better. I want new faces, people offering new perspectives, and a chance to grow the Democratic Party's brand beyond just "guy who has already been well known for a long time."

Don't get me wrong, I will support T-Mac in the general (which doesn't mean much since I don't live in VA) but I tend to end up on the side of candidates who make their careers doing things other than making money for banks, then pushing the standard DNC narrative for a while, then cashing in and becoming Governor or something. Democrats are always better than Republicans, but not all Democrats are created equal if that makes sense.

My theory is that name recognition is king above all in these kinds of races. Sure, T-Mac is confident, but he's safe. People are not incentivized (nor do they have the time with working 40 hour weeks, then worrying about their finances, then trying to survive a deadly pandemic) to learn new names and faces--through no fault of their own. It's an issue with our entire system of democracy. If a name is familiar and the narrative is pushed enough that they can win, that's who people vote for (see: Biden, Joe) instead of a candidate they may be more excited by or agree with more.