Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[2016]

1 year to course correct.

1 year.

Otherwise, well, I know some of y'all are too young to really remember 2010. Let me just say it is PAIN.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455709997887787009?s=20

It’s over.

While Democrats certainly have an uphill battle next year, I think the fact that some pundits are acting like things will be the exact same in 12 months is a bit misguided.

What pundits are acting this way? Mr Strawman?

In the post you quoted, Wasserman says, the results are consistent with Red Wave. That's a fact.

And Republicans do not need a "Red Wave" in 2022. This is quite different compared to after 2008.

Obama had 257-178 House Majority and a 59-41 Senate Majority for the most part of his first two years.

[NOVA Green]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

100,000 new residents or about 25 percent population growth in 10 years. Primarily Hispanics and Asians.

Youngkin did really well with Hispanics tho

Any exit poll claiming Youngkin got above 40 percent with Hispanics is BS. Instead of relying on exit polls we have actual data from majority hispanic areas in NOVA showing around 35-38 Youngkin. Anyway Because Romney only lost Loudoun by four any demographics that is more than 52-48 D will be a net loss for republicans there and contribute to a growing democratic victory margain in Loudoun.

Data shows more than 40% with Hispanics

 Is what "data" are you referencing thing beyond the aforementioned is exit polls and, arguably more accurate, precinct results?

And to add further to Badger's point we likely won't really ever have a conclusive answer to prove or disprove your "theory".

With all of the EVs being assigned to a "Central Precinct" instead of being added back into their original precincts, it becomes virtually impossible to accurately assess Latino 2021 voting patterns in the 2021 VA GOV election (not that people might attempt such an exercise).

I certainly wouldn't put much weight at all on exit polls, considering that Latinos are only roughly 10% of the population of VA and likely a significantly lower % of the eligible VAP (17% of Va Latinos are <18 years for example).

So then we start to get into subsets of subsets with insane MoEs and confidence intervals, which really starts to get into zones of exit polling methodology.

[Matty]

Why hasn’t Powhatan county VA become more blue? It’s a county right outside Richmond that is seeing large population growth

Youngkin got nearly 80% there and it’s getting REDDER

Why?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why hasn’t Powhatan county VA become more blue? It’s a county right outside Richmond that is seeing large population growth

Youngkin got nearly 80% there and it’s getting REDDER

Why?

I guess its subdivisions are filling up with right-leaning voters for some reason. That's the only way to explain it.

[iceman]

did Youngkin and Sears all win the same counties and independent cities?

[jamestroll]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

I find Loudoun voting Gillespie in 2014 despite losing statewide more impressive.

He somehow squeezed enough out of rural areas.  It was remarkable.

\

Yea, unlike many others, Nova is not my main concern about Virginia Democrats right now lol

[Politics Fan]

did Youngkin and Sears all win the same counties and independent cities?

At first glance Chesapeake city was a Youngkin/Ayala/Miyares city.

This site has county maps for all three statewide races. Maps look very close across the board.

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2021/virginia/

[ChineseConservative]

did Youngkin and Sears all win the same counties and independent cities?

At first glance Chesapeake city was a Youngkin/Ayala/Miyares city.

This site has county maps for all three statewide races. Maps look very close across the board.

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2021/virginia/

Hmm seems to be because the LG and AG results for Chesapeake have different raw total vote numbers reported. Via number precincts.

[jamestroll]

What is up with Virginia Beach? It's swings are random..

I predicted 43% for Tmac there and he got 45.5% with low black turn out. wtf.

[Calthrina950]

Youngkin's map does show what the pathway to a Republican victory in Virginia looks like, with the present coalitions. He won by significantly outperforming Trump in Northern Virginia, flipping back several of the traditionally Republican counties won by Biden last year (i.e., Chesterfield, James City, Stafford, Lynchburg, and Virginia Beach), winning the more marginal counties in the state (i.e., Prince Edward and Montgomery), and crushing McAuliffe in the rural and exurban areas.

[lfromnj]

https://fredericksburg.com/news/va_md_dc/former-gop-state-delegate-wants-republicans-to-write-in-her/article_73732484-46a2-5e85-b94e-0ceac963a9bf.html

“The Republican Party never saluted the Confederate flag, did not fight under the Confederate flag ... and he is our candidate, our nominee?” she said. “He does not represent the party of Lincoln. ... He is not a true Republican.”

Didn't know this about Sears.

So Confederate statues are definitely not coming back.

[NOVA Green]

Youngkin's map does show what the pathway to a Republican victory in Virginia looks like, with the present coalitions. He won by significantly outperforming Trump in Northern Virginia, flipping back several of the traditionally Republican counties won by Biden last year (i.e., Chesterfield, James City, Stafford, Lynchburg, and Virginia Beach), winning the more marginal counties in the state (i.e., Prince Edward and Montgomery), and crushing McAuliffe in the rural and exurban areas.

It is looking increasingly clear that the "education strategy" worked plus keeping Trump at arms length.

NO it wasn't about LGBTQ HS students or really even CRT....

Swings look more like a ton of Suburban Moms were frustrated that schools weren't reopening soon enough (Hence the Economy and Education being roughly 55% of the top issues).

Attacking the PUB candidate for being a Trump clone was a clear failure, when VA had a strong DEM majority in all branches of state gvt, and many suburban parents blamed the teachers union for not reopening up schools quickly enough, despite the fact that they were front in line for vaccinations.

I really question if the VA and NJ strategy will be sustainable in 2022, since the vast majority of voters in both states were not voting on Biden / Trump, let alone the sausage making of the BIF and BBB in the DEM controlled Fed Trifecta.

Certainly Afghanistan was not on the ballot at all!!!

Still--- agree with what a potential PUB Statewide VA map might look like (Done similar modelling in OR where again GOV races are frequently much closer than FED races).

[sting in the rafters]

https://twitter.com/DrewWilderTV/status/1456311610935595011

You know, this does prove there is a party in this country which still believes elections have consequences. Unfortunately, it's a party which is unsure whether it still believes in elections.

[EastwoodS]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

100,000 new residents or about 25 percent population growth in 10 years. Primarily Hispanics and Asians.

Youngkin did really well with Hispanics tho

Any exit poll claiming Youngkin got above 40 percent with Hispanics is BS. Instead of relying on exit polls we have actual data from majority hispanic areas in NOVA showing around 35-38 Youngkin. Anyway Because Romney only lost Loudoun by four any demographics that is more than 52-48 D will be a net loss for republicans there and contribute to a growing democratic victory margain in Loudoun.

Data shows more than 40% with Hispanics

 Is what "data" are you referencing thing beyond the aforementioned is exit polls and, arguably more accurate, precinct results?

Wouldn’t you agree that the CNN and fox exit polls were both wrong. There’s no way looking at precinct data that Youngkin did worse than Trump with this group. 55% GOP? Still probably sus

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

https://fredericksburg.com/news/va_md_dc/former-gop-state-delegate-wants-republicans-to-write-in-her/article_73732484-46a2-5e85-b94e-0ceac963a9bf.html

“The Republican Party never saluted the Confederate flag, did not fight under the Confederate flag ... and he is our candidate, our nominee?” she said. “He does not represent the party of Lincoln. ... He is not a true Republican.”

Didn't know this about Sears.

So Confederate statues are definitely not coming back.

How did we get so lucky to have this slate, come out of the VA convention system?

[NOVA Green]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

100,000 new residents or about 25 percent population growth in 10 years. Primarily Hispanics and Asians.

Youngkin did really well with Hispanics tho

Any exit poll claiming Youngkin got above 40 percent with Hispanics is BS. Instead of relying on exit polls we have actual data from majority hispanic areas in NOVA showing around 35-38 Youngkin. Anyway Because Romney only lost Loudoun by four any demographics that is more than 52-48 D will be a net loss for republicans there and contribute to a growing democratic victory margain in Loudoun.

Data shows more than 40% with Hispanics

 Is what "data" are you referencing thing beyond the aforementioned is exit polls and, arguably more accurate, precinct results?

Wouldn’t you agree that the CNN and fox exit polls were both wrong. There’s no way looking at precinct data that Youngkin did worse than Trump with this group. 55% GOP? Still probably sus

Source???

[kwabbit]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

100,000 new residents or about 25 percent population growth in 10 years. Primarily Hispanics and Asians.

Youngkin did really well with Hispanics tho

Any exit poll claiming Youngkin got above 40 percent with Hispanics is BS. Instead of relying on exit polls we have actual data from majority hispanic areas in NOVA showing around 35-38 Youngkin. Anyway Because Romney only lost Loudoun by four any demographics that is more than 52-48 D will be a net loss for republicans there and contribute to a growing democratic victory margain in Loudoun.

Data shows more than 40% with Hispanics

 Is what "data" are you referencing thing beyond the aforementioned is exit polls and, arguably more accurate, precinct results?

Wouldn’t you agree that the CNN and fox exit polls were both wrong. There’s no way looking at precinct data that Youngkin did worse than Trump with this group. 55% GOP? Still probably sus

Source???

I didn't mine into the PWC heavily Hispanic precincts, but Youngkin was +14 in margin over Trump in 37% Hispanic Manassas and +11 in 40% Hispanic Manassas Park. These margins are both at about the statewide swing (+13), so if there was an obvious trend in the Hispanic vote, like either of the exit polls, it would've been borne out in Manassas and Manassas Park. It seems as though Hispanic voters probably shifted close to the statewide average. Trump got 35-39% with Hispanics in the GE, maybe 32~% in VA, given that VA's Hispanics are urban/suburban. My guess is that Youngkin got around 40%.

[Atlas Force]

A real Virgin vs. Chad moment

[jamestroll]

I now have a goal of 250 pages. Will you help me make it there?

[ElectionsGuy]

Even though the counting isn't done and nothing is official yet, I wanted to make a swing make to get an idea of what happened and what we'll be dealing with in 2022.

Trends are real.



New Jersey swing (vs 2017)
Virginia swing (vs 2013)

Same men running for the same office, but in different years with different political environments. Shades are in 5 point increments, blue is Democratic, red is Republican. The deepest shade of red is 25+ R swing.

[jamestroll]

I am vindicated!

Loudoun County is not swing county!

If there was any time in the modern era it would flip GOP this was it! And it didn't!

[😥]

Skip

I think the one thing we can learn from this is that Democrats are doomed in 2022 with that level of WWC support

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This indicates, Trumpism without [the toxicity of] Trump is real thing. If so, Dems should be panicking.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am vindicated!

Loudoun County is not swing county!

If there was any time in the modern era it would flip GOP this was it! And it didn't!

Loudoun was basically unwinnable for the GOP due to the shifts in its demographics, unless for some reason VA Ds nominated someone in the mould of, say, Lee Carter.
Loudoun itself was not really competitive this election. Not that Youngkin needed it to be such.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This indicates, Trumpism without [the toxicity of] Trump is real thing. If so, Dems should be panicking.

Ds would be well served to not just assume that the Trump political style is a blanket negative because it was a liability to some degree for Donald Trump in 2020.
You can still be out-campaigned if you talk about Trump.
Trump lost in 2020 in part because he expected Sanders to be nominated and didn't change the script when Biden got the nod instead.
T-Mac lost in 2021 in part because he expected Amanda Chase or someone similar to be nominated and didn't change the script when Youngkin got the nod instead.