Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1456033264372789254

[HisGrace]

This isn't gonna transcend to 2922 all that much

Definitely agree that very few people will be talking about this election in 900 years.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Asians are a relatively insignificant group as far as percentage of electorate unless you're on the West Coast or Hawaii. So how is knowing what the Asian vote in Virginia did even statistically measurable to a high degree of accuracy in an exit poll?

There are a lot of Asians in NJ and NoVA.

Someone on AAD said that the Manassas area swings from 2017 weren’t suggestive of a significant Latino R shift. Without access to or time to look at the precinct results, I’m guessing there was at most a mild Asian R shift, definitely smaller than among white (especially non-college white) voters.  

[Matty]

Asians are extremely pro strict covid rules and they have been affected the least by lockdowns, so they are pretty pro dem right now

Newsome did well in recall with them

[Cashew]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Perhaps Democrats should do this, but "Democrats" are not a Council of a dozen people in the northeast dictating everything state parties do. There is no guarantee that the Ababama Democratic party would become more socially conservative simply because the DNC commanded them to. The onus is not only on the Democratic party to go out on a limb to try out this, there has to be a marketable demand coming from below as well.

Where is this Demand? I see plenty of wannabe populists who vote Republican while blasting Democrats for being too corporate, but then push comes to shove simply fall in line behind the GOP and have done nothing to push the party in a more populist direction. Where is the pro minimum wage faction of the Republican party? The anti toll roads faction? The negotiate drug prices faction? Where are the cracks that Democrats are supposed to exploit?

I would not mind it if this happened, but the conclusion I heave reached is that many of these people you speak of democrats appealing to are simply not serious. Either as flat out concern trolls, or they secretly want the coastal elites they hate to do all the hard work for them rather than grinding to take over state parties, all the while screaming angrily that the party that they didn't vote for is betraying them, while being silent on the party they did vote for.

[Green Line]

Glenn Youngkin is the last kind of Republican candidate I'd expect to over perform with hispanics - he's basically got that Mitt Romney asthetic.  You need a strongman like Trump to fire up the low info hispanics, not a guy who looks like his mom just knitted him his fleece.  He didn't project strength.

[Matty]

Glenn Youngkin is the last kind of Republican candidate I'd expect to over perform with hispanics - he's basically got that Mitt Romney asthetic.  You need a strongman like Trump to fire up the low info hispanics, not a guy who looks like his mom just knitted him his fleece.  He didn't project strength.

youngkin was basically the perfect fit for college whites in va and he still lost them according to exit polls

i mean, sweet jesus, who does the gop have to nominate to win back these voters?

[Green Line]

Glenn Youngkin is the last kind of Republican candidate I'd expect to over perform with hispanics - he's basically got that Mitt Romney asthetic.  You need a strongman like Trump to fire up the low info hispanics, not a guy who looks like his mom just knitted him his fleece.  He didn't project strength.

youngkin was basically the perfect fit for college whites in va and he still lost them according to exit polls

i mean, sweet jesus, who does the gop have to nominate to win back these voters?

They can't, so they should stop trying.  They're not good people, folks.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Glenn Youngkin is the last kind of Republican candidate I'd expect to over perform with hispanics - he's basically got that Mitt Romney asthetic.  You need a strongman like Trump to fire up the low info hispanics, not a guy who looks like his mom just knitted him his fleece.  He didn't project strength.

youngkin was basically the perfect fit for college whites in va and he still lost them according to exit polls

i mean, sweet jesus, who does the gop have to nominate to win back these voters?

To go a verse further in my own signature -

Now you intellectuals may not like it
But there ain't nothin' that you can do
'Cause there's a whole lot more of us
Common folks then there ever will be of you

The GOP made a great trade to get real and dependable Americans instead of a slim majority of a smaller group of entitled people who think they are superior people because they paid for a piece of paper to say so.

I LOVE THE POORLY EDUCATED!

[jamestroll]

Glenn Youngkin is the last kind of Republican candidate I'd expect to over perform with hispanics - he's basically got that Mitt Romney asthetic.  You need a strongman like Trump to fire up the low info hispanics, not a guy who looks like his mom just knitted him his fleece.  He didn't project strength.

youngkin was basically the perfect fit for college whites in va and he still lost them according to exit polls

i mean, sweet jesus, who does the gop have to nominate to win back these voters?

The way nova is voting Democratic down ballot as well is highly unusual for the type of area it is. Most other wealthy Dem trending areas voted Dem for President and mixed or mostly gop down ballot!

[Badger]

Glenn Youngkin is the last kind of Republican candidate I'd expect to over perform with hispanics - he's basically got that Mitt Romney asthetic.  You need a strongman like Trump to fire up the low info hispanics, not a guy who looks like his mom just knitted him his fleece.  He didn't project strength.

youngkin was basically the perfect fit for college whites in va and he still lost them according to exit polls

i mean, sweet jesus, who does the gop have to nominate to win back these voters?

To go a verse further in my own signature -

Now you intellectuals may not like it
But there ain't nothin' that you can do
'Cause there's a whole lot more of us
Common folks then there ever will be of you

The GOP made a great trade to get real and dependable Americans instead of a slim majority of a smaller group of entitled people who think they are superior people because they paid for a piece of paper to say so.

I LOVE THE POORLY EDUCATED!

Like attracts like.

[Crumpets]

I haven't double-checked this on other maps, but on the Election Atlas swing map, it looks like the only place to swing to the Democrats between 2017 and 2021 is Emporia City, which swung at least five points in their favor. Emporia was 62.5% black in 2010, so that would seem to be a kind of random exception to the general trend of Republicans over-performing in black areas. Anybody know what's going on there?

[bagelman]

I haven't double-checked this on other maps, but on the Election Atlas swing map, it looks like the only place to swing to the Democrats between 2017 and 2021 is Emporia City, which swung at least five points in their favor. Emporia was 62.5% black in 2010, so that would seem to be a kind of random exception to the general trend of Republicans over-performing in black areas. Anybody know what's going on there?

Emporia is emptying out, my guess is that blacks are a larger share of city population.

[Pericles]

The 3 biggest races of November 2nd 2021 were Virginia, New Jersey and New York City.
The democrats won 2 of them.
The democrats don't need to cry.

Very very bad take

It's better than arguing that this is certifiable proof that there will be an R wave in 2022.

D +10% to R +2% and D+16% to D+ under 5% is a very strong indicator that Democrats would lose Congress if the election were held now, and backs up the stuff we already know that tells us these bare majorities are not going to hold.

[Brittain33]

D +10% to R +2% and D+16% to D+ under 5% is a very strong indicator that Democrats would lose Congress if the election were held now, and backs up the stuff we already know that tells us these bare majorities are not going to hold.

I'm not disputing that these results are a warning to Dems who will likely have a bad 2022, but what comes to mind when I see people make an apples-to-apples comparison is what it would say if we took the shift in KY Gov in 2019 and used it to project federal results in 2020. Dems would have won in a landslide.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Sleeper issue but im thrilled Richmond voted no on the casino. Less competition for ours.

[Person Man]

D +10% to R +2% and D+16% to D+ under 5% is a very strong indicator that Democrats would lose Congress if the election were held now, and backs up the stuff we already know that tells us these bare majorities are not going to hold.

I'm not disputing that these results are a warning to Dems who will likely have a bad 2022, but what comes to mind when I see people make an apples-to-apples comparison is what it would say if we took the shift in KY Gov in 2019 and used it to project federal results in 2020. Dems would have won in a landslide.

And 2009 wasn’t as bad as 2010. I think we will have 1995-like numbers in 2023 if you ask me now.

[Skill and Chance]

Any thoughts on what this means for 2022 and 2023?

Spanberger is in very bad shape IMO unless she somehow got an I-64 vote sink district. 

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Asians are a relatively insignificant group as far as percentage of electorate unless you're on the West Coast or Hawaii. So how is knowing what the Asian vote in Virginia did even statistically measurable to a high degree of accuracy in an exit poll?

There are a lot of Asians in NJ and NoVA.

Quantify "a lot" and then think of how many of a group you need to poll of those that voted to have an accurate measure of how the whole of the group is acting. Throw in things like you have to account for differences in ethnicity influencing voting meaning it's not a monolithic group (Indians and Chinese are both "Asian", but are completely different groups of people) which means you need to have a larger sample to account for that (also exists with Latinos but not with blacks). You can get the whole "polling a unicorn" factor as well with such a low-percentage group, e.g. something I learned not that long ago is in the 2016 election there was a black voter in Chicago randomly polled that was a Trump supporter and this data point completely screwed up a lot of national polling numbers trying to account for that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Perhaps Democrats should do this, but "Democrats" are not a Council of a dozen people in the northeast dictating everything state parties do. There is no guarantee that the Ababama Democratic party would become more socially conservative simply because the DNC commanded them to. The onus is not only on the Democratic party to go out on a limb to try out this, there has to be a marketable demand coming from below as well.

Where is this Demand? I see plenty of wannabe populists who vote Republican while blasting Democrats for being too corporate, but then push comes to shove simply fall in line behind the GOP and have done nothing to push the party in a more populist direction. Where is the pro minimum wage faction of the Republican party? The anti toll roads faction? The negotiate drug prices faction? Where are the cracks that Democrats are supposed to exploit?

I would not mind it if this happened, but the conclusion I heave reached is that many of these people you speak of democrats appealing to are simply not serious. Either as flat out concern trolls, or they secretly want the coastal elites they hate to do all the hard work for them rather than grinding to take over state parties, all the while screaming angrily that the party that they didn't vote for is betraying them, while being silent on the party they did vote for.

That faction you are saying doesn't exist does indeed not exist among the politicians... but it's a huge faction of the voters.... Many are former Conservative Democrats such as myself. That's the core of the problem. R politicians don't represent the economic interests or views of their voters to a very large extent. Even Steve Bannon will tell you this. Polling consistently shows that the R party is hated by R voters more than the D party is by D voters.

How do you think Trump steamrolled in the R primary while promising single-payer healthcare (he praised the Australian system), raising taxes on the wealthy (did the opposite) as well as protectionist trade and cutting off the supply of illegal immigrant labor? That's the opening. You disarm the cultural issues off the bat and then the debate becomes who's more friendly to the working class.... the GOP doesn't want to debate on those terms.

I also think the Democrats should return to nomination via convention in some of these areas.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if it's been posted, but exits have been adjusted

Youngkin fav: 50/46 (+4)
McAuliffe fav: 47/50 (-3)
Trump fav: 40/55 (-15)

Biden approval: 46/53 (-7)

Turnout revised to 36% D, 34% R, 30% I, which was essentially what it was in 2020. Only this time McAuliffe's issue was he lost Indies by 9, when Biden won them by double digits.

Also apparently there were slightly more Biden/Youngkin crossover voters than Trump/McAuliffe.

[Cashew]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Perhaps Democrats should do this, but "Democrats" are not a Council of a dozen people in the northeast dictating everything state parties do. There is no guarantee that the Ababama Democratic party would become more socially conservative simply because the DNC commanded them to. The onus is not only on the Democratic party to go out on a limb to try out this, there has to be a marketable demand coming from below as well.

Where is this Demand? I see plenty of wannabe populists who vote Republican while blasting Democrats for being too corporate, but then push comes to shove simply fall in line behind the GOP and have done nothing to push the party in a more populist direction. Where is the pro minimum wage faction of the Republican party? The anti toll roads faction? The negotiate drug prices faction? Where are the cracks that Democrats are supposed to exploit?

I would not mind it if this happened, but the conclusion I heave reached is that many of these people you speak of democrats appealing to are simply not serious. Either as flat out concern trolls, or they secretly want the coastal elites they hate to do all the hard work for them rather than grinding to take over state parties, all the while screaming angrily that the party that they didn't vote for is betraying them, while being silent on the party they did vote for.

That faction you are saying doesn't exist does indeed not exist among the politicians... but it's a huge faction of the voters.... Many are former Conservative Democrats such as myself. That's the core of the problem. R politicians don't represent the economic interests or views of their voters to a very large extent. Even Steve Bannon will tell you this. Polling consistently shows that the R party is hated by R voters more than the D party is by D voters.

How do you think Trump steamrolled in the R primary while promising single-payer healthcare (he praised the Australian system), raising taxes on the wealthy (did the opposite) as well as protectionist trade and cutting off the supply of illegal immigrant labor? That's the opening. You disarm the cultural issues off the bat and then the debate becomes who's more friendly to the working class.... the GOP doesn't want to debate on those terms.

I also think the Democrats should return to nomination via convention in some of these areas.

So why no take action to change the Republican party then? If you are umsafisfied with a republican officials economic position economic positions but find voting for democrats unpalatable, the solution is to run as a republican yourself and seek to oust the incumbent. Why then do we see such passivity among these voters? Sure they might gravitate towards a politician with populist rhetoric when they show up but where is the proactive action at the state level? How many state legislators have they elected? City Council members? Why are these populists so upset then the coastal elites they hate don't come down from their ivory tower to save them from the mean republicans they associate with?

[jojoju1998]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Perhaps Democrats should do this, but "Democrats" are not a Council of a dozen people in the northeast dictating everything state parties do. There is no guarantee that the Ababama Democratic party would become more socially conservative simply because the DNC commanded them to. The onus is not only on the Democratic party to go out on a limb to try out this, there has to be a marketable demand coming from below as well.

Where is this Demand? I see plenty of wannabe populists who vote Republican while blasting Democrats for being too corporate, but then push comes to shove simply fall in line behind the GOP and have done nothing to push the party in a more populist direction. Where is the pro minimum wage faction of the Republican party? The anti toll roads faction? The negotiate drug prices faction? Where are the cracks that Democrats are supposed to exploit?

I would not mind it if this happened, but the conclusion I heave reached is that many of these people you speak of democrats appealing to are simply not serious. Either as flat out concern trolls, or they secretly want the coastal elites they hate to do all the hard work for them rather than grinding to take over state parties, all the while screaming angrily that the party that they didn't vote for is betraying them, while being silent on the party they did vote for.

That faction you are saying doesn't exist does indeed not exist among the politicians... but it's a huge faction of the voters.... Many are former Conservative Democrats such as myself. That's the core of the problem. R politicians don't represent the economic interests or views of their voters to a very large extent. Even Steve Bannon will tell you this. Polling consistently shows that the R party is hated by R voters more than the D party is by D voters.

How do you think Trump steamrolled in the R primary while promising single-payer healthcare (he praised the Australian system), raising taxes on the wealthy (did the opposite) as well as protectionist trade and cutting off the supply of illegal immigrant labor? That's the opening. You disarm the cultural issues off the bat and then the debate becomes who's more friendly to the working class.... the GOP doesn't want to debate on those terms.

I also think the Democrats should return to nomination via convention in some of these areas.

So why no take action to change the Republican party then? If you are umsafisfied with a republican officials economic position economic positions but find voting for democrats unpalatable, the solution is to run as a republican yourself and seek to oust the incumbent. Why then do we see such passivity among these voters? Sure they might gravitate towards a politician with populist rhetoric when they show up but where is the proactive action at the state level? How many state legislators have they elected? City Council members? Why are these populists so upset then the coastal elites they hate don't come down from their ivory tower to save them from the mean republicans they associate with?

Here's a hot take. The take over was already done through the Tea Party Movement of 2010, that allowed the House to be takened over.

And here's another hot take; these aren't exactly low income working class voters......

Police officers, Skilled Trades persons, small business owners, there are relatively succcesful people but with a more socially conservative bent. ( Aka its all about culture ).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The 3 biggest races of November 2nd 2021 were Virginia, New Jersey and New York City.
The democrats won 2 of them.
The democrats don't need to cry.

Very very bad take

It's better than arguing that this is certifiable proof that there will be an R wave in 2022.

D +10% to R +2% and D+16% to D+ under 5% is a very strong indicator that Democrats would lose Congress if the election were held now, and backs up the stuff we already know that tells us these bare majorities are not going to hold.

People are reading too much into this election. An R wave is not necessarily going to happen, regardless of what polls say even now. "If polls now" and "If the election happens now" mean little to nothing in the real world because that is far from when elections are actually happen and a year is a very long time in politics. I'll be looking at 2022 polls to decide that, and especially later year ones. (Actually, if we are going to be making 2009-2010 parallels: I'll point out Ds led in the polls for all but previous six months before Election Day that year. And we know how that ended)

No, this does not necessarily tell us much about 2022 other than we can't assume the suburbs are safe for either party and that Rs might well have a turnout advantage. As usual, whichever side does better in tactics, gets better candidates, and has better messaging and strategy is probably going to win. And thinking we know for sure which side that will be is a fool's errand.

It remains fact that the D coalition is more higher-turnout than it was in 2010 (because in most cases it is the same voters, only they turn out more), which is good news for Democrats, but far from enough to ensure we hold our majorities next year.

[It’s so Joever]

1 year to course correct.

1 year.

Otherwise, well, I know some of y'all are too young to really remember 2010. Let me just say it is PAIN.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455709997887787009?s=20

It’s over.