Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If the exits indicate Youngkin +1 or +2 then that probably isn't going to equal a win if you believe that this exit poll is not good.

Yeah, because don't these polls only take into account in person voting?

[Senator Incitatus]

If the exits indicate Youngkin +1 or +2 then that probably isn't going to equal a win if you believe that this exit poll is not good.

Yeah, because don't these polls only take into account in person voting?

No.

[Spectator]

When does Fairfax early vote drop?

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, the exit poll has updated to Biden -9 approval versus -13 from earlier

[GeorgiaModerate]

If the exits indicate Youngkin +1 or +2 then that probably isn't going to equal a win if you believe that this exit poll is not good.

Yeah, because don't these polls only take into account in person voting?

It depends.  Some exit polls will also make an effort (before Election Day) to sample those who have voted by mail.

[DrScholl]

After so many polling misses over the past couple of cycles I think pollsters are just experimenting with different methodology hoping to get things right.

[YE]

If the exits indicate Youngkin +1 or +2 then that probably isn't going to equal a win if you believe that this exit poll is not good.

Yeah, because don't these polls only take into account in person voting?

Not anymore.

[LimoLiberal]

When Fairfax goes 53-46 for McAuliffe in the early vote and I start to hear "Yo voy a votar... por Donald Trump" from the street...

[Sestak]

If the exits indicate Youngkin +1 or +2 then that probably isn't going to equal a win if you believe that this exit poll is not good.

Yeah, because don't these polls only take into account in person voting?

No.

They don’t exactly adapt to mail voting well, though. See California recall exits for instance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

When does Fairfax early vote drop?

I saw a post on Twitter (don't have the citation) suggesting around 7:30 EDT.

[RI]

The CNN exit poll clearly takes early/mail votes into account:

Exit polls are surveys of a random sample of voters taken as they leave their polling place on Election Day. Absentee and early voters are represented by either telephone polls or in-person exit polls at early voting locations. Pollsters use the results to assess the makeup and opinions of the electorate.

There's even an option to filter the results down to just ED voters.

[Alben Barkley]

The exit polls aren't always great but I can't think of the last time they were so wildly off-base they didn't give a decent sense of which way the race was going to end up. I remember in 2016 they were the first time I really got a sinking feeling of "My god he's actually going to win this thing." It's happening again...

[roxas11]

FWIW, the exit poll has updated to Biden -9 approval versus -13 from earlier

so by the end what will the final number be?

[Hope For A New Era]

I've dressed for the occasion (displayname and signature)

[wbrocks67]

Exit poll also has electorate at

D 35
R 35
I 30

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, the exit poll has updated to Biden -9 approval versus -13 from earlier

so by the end what will the final number be?

Sorry, I left my crystal ball at the office.

[MillennialModerate]

The exit polls aren't always great but I can't think of the last time they were so wildly off-base they didn't give a decent sense of which way the race was going to end up. I remember in 2016 they were the first time I really got a sinking feeling of "My god he's actually going to win this thing." It's happening again...

Shush. Let people make themselves feel good for the remaining 27 minutes before the race is called

[Orwell]

I'm predicting TMac by +4. I'll donate $10 to the charity of THG's choice should Youngkin win.

[BG-NY]

GG

[wbrocks67]

The exit polls aren't always great but I can't think of the last time they were so wildly off-base they didn't give a decent sense of which way the race was going to end up. I remember in 2016 they were the first time I really got a sinking feeling of "My god he's actually going to win this thing." It's happening again...

They were off 8% this year in CA, so we'll see

[Big Abraham]

That's it guys, Open Bible already called it. Everyone go home

https://twitter.com/OpenBibleOverc1/status/1455673838952501254

[Non Swing Voter]

The exit polls aren't always great but I can't think of the last time they were so wildly off-base they didn't give a decent sense of which way the race was going to end up. I remember in 2016 they were the first time I really got a sinking feeling of "My god he's actually going to win this thing." It's happening again...

It just seems weird that everything is close to 50/50.  18-29 are voting similar to 65+?  That's odd.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, the exit poll has updated to Biden -9 approval versus -13 from earlier

so by the end what will the final number be?

good question. CA had Biden approval at +15 initially and then it grew to +23 by the end

[It’s so Joever]

The exit polls aren't always great but I can't think of the last time they were so wildly off-base they didn't give a decent sense of which way the race was going to end up. I remember in 2016 they were the first time I really got a sinking feeling of "My god he's actually going to win this thing." It's happening again...

Potentially but lets wait and see.

[Umengus]

Exit poll also has electorate at

D 35
R 35
I 30

if true it's a gop win.