Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[THKL]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

Based on the exit poll I’d say Youngkin is winning by 53-44. Honestly, I think it’s time to stick a fork in Virginia, as I’m more concerned about what’s happening in New Jersey, because if we lose that the Democrats are finished.

[soundchaser]

If Biden really is 43/56 in VA, it means he's in Hoover after the stock market crash territory nationally, so that's actually pretty important, possibly the most important part here for longer term implications. 

Which makes me more skeptical of the exit poll than it does anything else.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

Will you cool it with the cultish stuff? We've had enough of that with Trump. No one in this race is a king.

This thread probably has like 400 posts with the word Trumpkin

That's probably lowballing it.

[Big Abraham]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

Based on the exit poll I’d say Youngkin is winning by 53-44. Honestly, I think it’s time to stick a fork in Virginia, as I’m more concerned about what’s happening in New Jersey, because if we lose that the Democrats are finished.

I don't think New Jersey has ever been seriously in question.

[Not Me, Us]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

Based on the exit poll I’d say Youngkin is winning by 53-44. Honestly, I think it’s time to stick a fork in Virginia, as I’m more concerned about what’s happening in New Jersey, because if we lose that the Democrats are finished.

If Democrats lose NJ you will never see me on this forum again, lmao. Nobody serious thinks that's even a remote possibility.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

I'm not taking the exit polls as seriously as they're often unreliable.

An exit poll that models the VA electorate as 73% white is probably unreliable, no?

Turnout indicate it as well. Moreover, both nationally and VA polls indicated that T-Mac/Biden had problem with non-white + indies.

[roxas11]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

18 points difference in favs, as preliminary exit polls show.

This is why I was looking for terry mcauliffe 2013 favs in order to compare but so far I have not found anything

[EastwoodS]

Is non swing voter smoking a copium cig?

[DrScholl]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

Will you cool it with the cultish stuff? We've had enough of that with Trump. No one in this race is a king.

This thread probably has like  1000 posts with the word Trumpkin

That's just mocking someone. It's not glorifying them as a monarch.

[soundchaser]

If you think Biden approvals are lower in a state he won by 10 points than they are nationally, I have a bridge, etc.

[Wormless Gourd]

CNN Preliminary Exit Poll says 57% are a gun-owning household lol

[KaiserDave]

CNN Preliminary Exit Poll says 57% are a gun-owning household lol

Wat

[NYSforKennedy2024]

>Virginia youth turnout 9%
>Biden 43% approval
>Top issues of Virginia voters: Economy, Jobs

Wins or losses tonight Biden needs to sound the alarm to everyone in the admin. to get their sh*t together, now. Some executive orders as well.

[BigSerg]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

dead heat based on turnout but not on exit polls wich favor rep.

I'm not taking the exit polls as seriously as they're often unreliable.

An exit poll that models the VA electorate as 73% white is probably unreliable, no?

Turnout indicate it as well. Moreover, both nationally and VA polls indicated that T-Mac/Biden had problem with non-white + indies.

You are right, all day we have been getting reports that turnout in the black/Hispanic areas was much lower than in the white areas.

[Spectator]

CNN Preliminary Exit Poll says 57% are a gun-owning household lol

Wat

Is that stat really not believable? I don’t see the issue.

[THKL]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

Based on the exit poll I’d say Youngkin is winning by 53-44. Honestly, I think it’s time to stick a fork in Virginia, as I’m more concerned about what’s happening in New Jersey, because if we lose that the Democrats are finished.

I don't think New Jersey has ever been seriously in question.

If Biden’s approvals are underwater in New Jersey their is a slight chance that Republicans could score a upset win their, in which case I’ll literally vomit at the thought of what 2022 and 2024 will look like, LMAO.

[Chips]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

Based on the exit poll I’d say Youngkin is winning by 53-44. Honestly, I think it’s time to stick a fork in Virginia, as I’m more concerned about what’s happening in New Jersey, because if we lose that the Democrats are finished.

If Democrats lose NJ you will never see me on this forum again, lmao. Nobody serious thinks that's even a remote possibility.

I'd put a Murphy loss at roughly a 5% chance.

[DrScholl]

Exit polls update throughout the night anyway, so the first batch isn't necessarily the most accurate.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If the black vote actually did drop to 17% then maybe that’s a sign to stop running unlikeable swamp creatures and to start running new candidates. Even if T-Mac wins, I stand by my statement earlier this year that he should’ve stayed tf out and let new blood take over. Then maybe we wouldn’t be in this position.

[Senator Incitatus]

Everything we seem to have now points to essentially a dead heat. I can say with somewhat reasonable confidence that we're going to be in for a relatively long night and that perhaps everyone needs to make plans to stay up later than usual.

Based on the exit poll I’d say Youngkin is winning by 53-44. Honestly, I think it’s time to stick a fork in Virginia, as I’m more concerned about what’s happening in New Jersey, because if we lose that the Democrats are finished.

If Democrats lose NJ you will never see me on this forum again, lmao. Nobody serious thinks that's even a remote possibility.

I'd say it's an extremely remote one. We have to remember that polling, for all its worth, has limits. Upsets do happen. I'd put it at ~5%.

[Wormless Gourd]

Wat

Yeah I question the validity of these early exits strongly

Also recalled 2020 vote choice was 46-46 Trump-Biden

[Skill and Chance]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

18 points difference in favs, as preliminary exit polls show.

This is why I was looking for terry mcauliffe 2013 favs in order to compare but so far I have not found anything

I remember a preliminary exit poll from VA in 2013 that was McAuliffe +7 and then adjusted down throughout the night.  Even if this is off, it's pointing to such a clear R win that it would be very hard to flip the outcome.

[DaleCooper]

In 2013 54 percent of voters disapproved of Obama’s job performance, according to the exit polling. But 30 percent of those who “somewhat disapproved” of Obama nonetheless voted for McAuliffe.


https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/terry-mcauliffe-virginia-governor-2013-elections-099441

This is from an old politico article

This is why the Biden numbers, in the context of this specific election, don't interest me to much for now. What I think Democrats should be concerned about is Youngkin's approvals in comparison to McAuliffe's.

If Biden really is 43/56 in VA, it means he's in Hoover after the stock market crash territory nationally, so that's actually pretty important, possibly the most important part here for longer term implications. 

Hence why I mentioned, "in the context of this specific election". Also, voters in an off-year election are not representative of Virginia's 2024 or 2020 voters as a whole. Plus, we have to wait until the election results come in before we can even know if this is true.

Also don't forget, I remember plenty of approval polls placing Trump's rating under water in states like Nebraska, Texas, and Alaska, and several points underwater in Iowa or Ohio. I'll believe a dramatic exodus from one of the two major parties when I see it.

[Ljube]

>Virginia youth turnout 9%
>Biden 43% approval
>Top issues of Virginia voters: Economy, Jobs

Wins or losses tonight Biden needs to sound the alarm to everyone in the admin. to get their sh*t together, now. Some executive orders as well.

What do you suggest he should order?
Some of his orders are at least partly to blame for his poor ratings.

[GALeftist]

I can confidently project that these early exit polls are going to be wrong in some significant way. Stop paying attention to them.