Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well off to go vote for Governor elect T-Mac.

Best of luck man!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455543074646544387
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455546005273858048

I've seen enough. Youngkin wins thanks to Trump's endorsement!

[wbrocks67]

If anything, it looks like we're aiming for 2.5-2.6M, aka 2017 turnout. Could be wrong, but even 2.8M seems like a heavy lift.

[KaiserDave]

Nobody should listen to Wasserman about anything or any early turnout reports at all.

[Senator Incitatus]

BAD NEWS: My Snapchat map procedure has changed. There were a bunch of pro-Youngkin posts this morning across the state. These were in Prince William, Rural Shenandoah area, and Loudoun.

Three voting related posts without an obvious slant. One in Fairfax, one in Norfolk, and one in Greater Richmond.

Snapchat maps are unironically a great resource for on-the-ground news, far better than Twitter.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

🚨🚨🚨Virginia Ratings Update🚨🚨🚨

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1455542715265945600

[Not Me, Us]

Happy election day, everyone! God help us all.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455553552743604232?s=21

[Inmate Trump]

Expectation setting from McCarthy?

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1455542966035140617

He's right though.  A close loss is a win for Republicans and signals big gains next year.  A win tonight signals even larger gains for them next year.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455553552743604232?s=21

what the hell does this tweet even mean? 

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455553552743604232?s=21

what the hell does this tweet even mean? 

I have no idea lol

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455553552743604232?s=21

what the hell does this tweet even mean? 

This is the guy who was a hot mess in 2017 and was dooming in the middle of the day saying turnout looked terrible for Dems/Northam.

[Non Swing Voter]

Nobody should listen to Wasserman about anything or any early turnout reports at all.

Wasserman goes ballistic and unprofessional towards that UofF who reports on turnout then tweets about turnout when he thinks it benefits the GOP.  He's a joke.  I think it's schtick at this point to gain followers.  He's probably monetizing this somehow.  

[BigSerg]

Hugh Hewitt has declared Youngkin's victory

https://twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1455518435253919752?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Expectation setting from McCarthy?

https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1455542966035140617

He's right though.  A close loss is a win for Republicans and signals big gains next year.  A win tonight signals even larger gains for them next year.

A close loss means nothing but the fact that Biden and Dems are unpopular right now b/c they're not getting anything through. A lot can change in an entire year.

Look at Biden - in August he still had a +7 approval on average. Now it's -7. That's a 14% change in just 2 months. A lot can happen - good or bad - between now and next November

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455553552743604232?s=21

what the hell does this tweet even mean? 

This is the guy who was a hot mess in 2017 and was dooming in the middle of the day saying turnout looked terrible for Dems/Northam.

Turnout looked really high in my precinct in Fairfax.  Granted I live in a more swingy precinct than avg. here.  There were about 270 votes cast when I submitted my ballot.  Given that there are 243 precincts that would mean 65,000 people had voted by then in Fairfax if it's representative.

[DaleCooper]

I have very little interest in any one side winning, as I'm just observer, but it strikes me as very bizarre to declare quasi-victory at 10:30 before any vote counts are revealed. Why set yourself up for such potential failure?

[Non Swing Voter]

It's not even raining in NOVA as predicted.  Completely clear sky outside.

Has been raining a bit in oakton vienna and tysons.

You're right.  It didn't look like rain from my window but when I stepped out it was slightly drizzling.  Still not enough to deter anyone and way way less rain than 2017.

[KaiserDave]

Anyone who reacts to preliminary reports of turn out or random tweets should stop immediately and reconsider their actions

[Non Swing Voter]

I have very little interest in any one side winning, as I'm just observer, but it strikes me as very bizarre to declare quasi-victory at 10:30 before any vote counts are revealed. Why set yourself up for such potential failure?

who declared victory?

[wbrocks67]

I have very little interest in any one side winning, as I'm just observer, but it strikes me as very bizarre to declare quasi-victory at 10:30 before any vote counts are revealed. Why set yourself up for such potential failure?

Hugh Hewitt has been a hot mess for years now, so not too surprising there

[LabourJersey]

Hugh Hewitt has declared Youngkin's victory

https://twitter.com/PostOpinions/status/1455518435253919752?s=20

This seems very presumptuous

[Non Swing Voter]

why the hell was my Election Day turnout report thread deleted? 

At any rate, Falls Church hitting 50% momentarily:

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1455555904972238852

[Skill and Chance]

Chaz Nuttycombe has Governor at Tilt R, Lt. Governor as Tilt D and AG as Lean D, with the GOP picking up 7 Delegate seats (HDs 10, 12, 28, 73, 75, 83 and 85).

12, 28, 75, 85 are certainly possible flips with the trends in 12 being bad for Dems.
10 was Biden +16
73 was Biden +21
83 was Biden +15.

If polls are off even a tiny bit in the suburbs and TMac holds on by a few, I can see Dems holding everything but 12.

If a Youngkin win is truly driven by overperformance in inner NOVA and majority-minority areas,  I expect it the HoD hold at 51D/49R unless it's Youngkin by >5.

[DaleCooper]

I have very little interest in any one side winning, as I'm just observer, but it strikes me as very bizarre to declare quasi-victory at 10:30 before any vote counts are revealed. Why set yourself up for such potential failure?

who declared victory?

Many, many people on both sides are stopping one step short of declaring victory, but they might as well be.