Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455235645857746950?s=20
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-last-word-on-virginia/

[Matty]

Wow

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok, that's reason no. 2 for me not to rate this as Tossup instead of D-leaning. (no. 1 being the Election Day vote)
I trust Sabato.

[SnowLabrador]

2022 is going to be a worse year for Democrats than 2014.

[Mr.Phips]

2022 is going to be a worse year for Democrats than 2014.

Don’t know how much lower they can go than that when it comes to House, Senate, and state legislatures.  They were really scraping the bottom that year.

[Wormless Gourd]

Bet $10 TMac wins. It would require more reversion then realistic.

I'm still confident TMac pulls it out in the end.

Still, Inside Elections just changed it from Lean D to tossup, so now all three prediction sites are tossup or Lean R. Not a good sign.

[It’s so Joever]

Whatever happens, can we agree to NOT delete posts if we were wrong? That takes the fun out of things.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Honestly the biggest open question is what’s the over under for pages in this thread. Personally I’m optimistic we’ll hit 300

[Roll Roons]

Chaz Nuttycombe has Governor at Tilt R, Lt. Governor as Tilt D and AG as Lean D, with the GOP picking up 7 Delegate seats (HDs 10, 12, 28, 73, 75, 83 and 85).

[Chips]

Whatever happens, can we agree to NOT delete posts if we were wrong? That takes the fun out of things.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Whatever happens, can we agree to NOT delete posts if we were wrong? That takes the fun out of things.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Whatever happens, can we agree to NOT delete posts if we were wrong? That takes the fun out of things.

Lol if people did that half this thread would vanish

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Honestly the biggest open question is what’s the over under for pages in this thread. Personally I’m optimistic we’ll hit 300

It's amazing that 300 isn't impossible. Shows how much passion this race has displayed (no doubt to serve as an outlet for partisan angry feelings and because it's one of only two important elections in an election cycle when Atlas is bigger than ever).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Whatever happens, can we agree to NOT delete posts if we were wrong? That takes the fun out of things.

Lol if people did that half this thread would vanish

True, LOL.

[Chips]

Ok, that's reason no. 2 for me not to rate this as Tossup instead of D-leaning. (no. 1 being the Election Day vote)
I trust Sabato.

Sabato does tend to know what he's talking about most of the time which is certainly something to take into consideration there.

[Non Swing Voter]

Whatever happens, can we agree to NOT delete posts if we were wrong? That takes the fun out of things.

[Chips]

It's okay if anyone gets the race wrong. We all get it wrong sometimes. Deleting posts that show you massively off is..to put it kindly, cowardly.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's okay if anyone gets the race wrong. We all get it wrong sometimes. Deleting posts that show you massively off is..to put it kindly, cowardly.

that's putting it way too kindly.  It's actually not a widespread problem though, just a couple of posters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok, that's reason no. 2 for me not to rate this as Tossup instead of D-leaning. (no. 1 being the Election Day vote)
I trust Sabato.

Sabato does tend to know what he's talking about most of the time which is certainly something to take into consideration there.

Sabato does have a good track record, yes.
I read through the analysis and saw the crux of his stated reason was the fall in Biden's approvals though, and he himself was not very sure of the conclusion he made.

It's worth noting that as of late the fall in Biden approvals is only part of the story. The disapprovals are stuck at 51%. It's clear what is happening - people who aren't fans of Biden's job performance but are still loyal Democrats, to the point they are even unwilling to say they disapprove of his job performance. It's clear that Biden's fall in approvals has basically minimal in terms of impact on the election, because these sorts of voters would have voted for T-Mac anyway.

Biden's approvals don't function the same way as we're used to in some areas - it's not surprising if they didn't in this way either. I still think McAuliffe is favored. On that basis, I found myself disagreeing with Sabato. But I respect his stance on this all the same.
A lot of uncertainty on this, a lot of the fog, will be cleared over the next two days.

[Chips]

Ok, that's reason no. 2 for me not to rate this as Tossup instead of D-leaning. (no. 1 being the Election Day vote)
I trust Sabato.

Sabato does tend to know what he's talking about most of the time which is certainly something to take into consideration there.

Sabato does have a good track record, yes.
I read through the analysis and saw the crux of his stated reason was the fall in Biden's approvals though, and he himself was not very sure of the conclusion he made.

It's worth noting that as of late the fall in Biden approvals is only part of the story. The disapprovals are stuck at 51%. It's clear what is happening - people who aren't fans of Biden's job performance but are still loyal Democrats, to the point they are even unwilling to say they disapprove of his job performance. It's clear that Biden's fall in approvals has basically minimal in terms of impact on the election, because these sorts of voters would have voted for T-Mac anyway.

Biden's approvals don't function the same way as we're used to in some areas - it's not surprising if they didn't in this way either. I still think McAuliffe is favored. On that basis, I found myself disagreeing with Sabato. But I respect his stance on this all the same.
A lot of uncertainty on this, a lot of the fog, will be cleared over the next two days.

I agree with this stance as well.

[Non Swing Voter]

Sen. Warner just said he believes the early vote will break 58%-42% for T-Mac.

Which would be like 190,000 votes or so.

[Pollster]

Not predicting this to happen, but one has to wonder what the narrative will be if McAuliffe winds up winning by a Northam/Biden 2020-esque margin. Seems like the possibility of such a result has been so decisively dismissed that there isn't a coherent agreement on what it would "mean."

[Chips]

Not predicting this to happen, but one has to wonder what the narrative will be if McAuliffe winds up winning by a Northam/Biden 2020-esque margin. Seems like the possibility of such a result has been so decisively dismissed that there isn't a coherent agreement on what it would "mean."

I agree with Sabato in that this would likely mean that just because Biden is down, doesn't mean 2022 has to be a bad year for the Dems.

[xavier110]

Not predicting this to happen, but one has to wonder what the narrative will be if McAuliffe winds up winning by a Northam/Biden 2020-esque margin. Seems like the possibility of such a result has been so decisively dismissed that there isn't a coherent agreement on what it would "mean."

The meaning would be gleaned from turnout and individual county results, so it’s hard to say without knowing those. But my guess is it would mean GOP does struggle without Trump on the ballot and white educateds still turn out during off years and are increasingly hardening as Dems.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I can say beyond a shadow of a doubt that’s at some point on election night Princess Blanding is going to blame at some point in the night