Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[TML]

I’ve recently been thinking about another potential factor in this and other upcoming elections: Trump and his most outspoken supporters continuing to push 2020 Election grievances by telling their supporters not to vote. Could this be a factor which may end up saving McAuliffe?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No I found it on the Campaign Trail subreddit. Not a real mod, just a meme.

Thanks for sharing it with us!

[Gracile]

I’ve recently been thinking about another potential factor in this and other upcoming elections: Trump and his most outspoken supporters continuing to push 2020 Election grievances by telling their supporters not to vote. Could this be a factor which may end up saving McAuliffe?

I think this factor is pretty overrated. The partisan discrepancies in certain downballot races are probably better explained by Democratic base voters becoming more high propensity (to say nothing of potential reversion of Biden voters toward Youngkin as some polling is indicating which would also be an issue for McAuliffe).

[hyouzel the predictor]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

Any individuals who are particularly incompetent in the VA Dems, or is it too broadly spread out to justify singling out anyone?

I know there was a major campaign restructuring in the summer for Terry's campaign that resulted in 2 months of dead silence while all the CRT/SB bullsh**t was going on, so that definitely didn't help. I don't think it is an issue with VA Dems as much as it is Terry's campaign just not knowing what they are doing. They clearly thought this race was safe until September so they didn't even campaign or do anything until that point whereas Youngkin has been out fighting all year. He has run an excellent campaign all things considered.


Also, as a Loudoun resident and LCPS student, I think it's crucial that everybody understands what is happening with this rape situation. The blame in placing this kid back into LCPS has nothing to do with the school board as it was out of their hands at that point (criminal charges). They legitimately did not know what happened as it was in the hands of the DA Buta Biberaj. I don't know why she decided the kid wasn't a risk (I've heard he was SPED) but she is the one who made the decision to place him back in schools, not the school board. Also, there is no evidence that this kid is trans or even was wearing a skirt other than what this girl said. I also want to say that the walkouts last week were not political in nature other than being mad at LCPS for tolerating rape culture in general (there was a specific situation at my school that exemplified this). As the kid literally in the front of the walkout, I can assure everyone on Atlas that it had nothing to do with trans kids, CRT, or the gubernatorial election in any way.

Also CRT is bullsh**t we learn the opposite so that's all a bunch of lies too

Seems that in general the school board might have been stuck in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation?

Oh fully, there was nothing the school board could have done in this situation, period. It was completely out of their hands, to the point where they didn't even know what happened to this kid because it was a criminal matter at that point.

Who, if anyone, will suffer electorally on local level because of this scandal? The school board? The DA? County Executives?

Who will? The school board. Who should? the District Attorney.

Also (this story was swept under the rug) the county sheriff (an elected Republican) refused to provide police at the school board meeting after the one that turned into a riot... That's why there was the one person in the room rule.

[hyouzel the predictor]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

Any individuals who are particularly incompetent in the VA Dems, or is it too broadly spread out to justify singling out anyone?

I know there was a major campaign restructuring in the summer for Terry's campaign that resulted in 2 months of dead silence while all the CRT/SB bullsh**t was going on, so that definitely didn't help. I don't think it is an issue with VA Dems as much as it is Terry's campaign just not knowing what they are doing. They clearly thought this race was safe until September so they didn't even campaign or do anything until that point whereas Youngkin has been out fighting all year. He has run an excellent campaign all things considered.


Also, as a Loudoun resident and LCPS student, I think it's crucial that everybody understands what is happening with this rape situation. The blame in placing this kid back into LCPS has nothing to do with the school board as it was out of their hands at that point (criminal charges). They legitimately did not know what happened as it was in the hands of the DA Buta Biberaj. I don't know why she decided the kid wasn't a risk (I've heard he was SPED) but she is the one who made the decision to place him back in schools, not the school board. Also, there is no evidence that this kid is trans or even was wearing a skirt other than what this girl said. I also want to say that the walkouts last week were not political in nature other than being mad at LCPS for tolerating rape culture in general (there was a specific situation at my school that exemplified this). As the kid literally in the front of the walkout, I can assure everyone on Atlas that it had nothing to do with trans kids, CRT, or the gubernatorial election in any way.

Also CRT is bullsh**t we learn the opposite so that's all a bunch of lies too

If you are serious and not a troll, you might have inadvertently helped Youngkin anyway because that was NOT the narrative that went around. I keep hammering away here about the importance of OPTICS that so many Democrats just don't seem to comprehend. In politics, it doesn't matter what people's actual motives or intentions are. What matters is how it is conveyed by the media and perceived by the voters. And this walkout contributed to a perception of a Loudoun County in chaos thanks to wokeness gone mad, to the point that even the kids are fed up with it. Regardless of whether that's true or not, it's the narrative that's being widely spread nationally, and I imagine within much of your state as well.

I fully agree with you that the optics are awful... however, there was a situation at our school where a kid essentially threatened to "rape and put down" a specific person and received no punishment (still was on the football team, in classes with that girl)... The optics were awful in light of the national environment but I think it was necessary to show our school administration that we won't tolerate sexual harassment or assault in our school.

[It’s so Joever]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

Any individuals who are particularly incompetent in the VA Dems, or is it too broadly spread out to justify singling out anyone?

I know there was a major campaign restructuring in the summer for Terry's campaign that resulted in 2 months of dead silence while all the CRT/SB bullsh**t was going on, so that definitely didn't help. I don't think it is an issue with VA Dems as much as it is Terry's campaign just not knowing what they are doing. They clearly thought this race was safe until September so they didn't even campaign or do anything until that point whereas Youngkin has been out fighting all year. He has run an excellent campaign all things considered.


Also, as a Loudoun resident and LCPS student, I think it's crucial that everybody understands what is happening with this rape situation. The blame in placing this kid back into LCPS has nothing to do with the school board as it was out of their hands at that point (criminal charges). They legitimately did not know what happened as it was in the hands of the DA Buta Biberaj. I don't know why she decided the kid wasn't a risk (I've heard he was SPED) but she is the one who made the decision to place him back in schools, not the school board. Also, there is no evidence that this kid is trans or even was wearing a skirt other than what this girl said. I also want to say that the walkouts last week were not political in nature other than being mad at LCPS for tolerating rape culture in general (there was a specific situation at my school that exemplified this). As the kid literally in the front of the walkout, I can assure everyone on Atlas that it had nothing to do with trans kids, CRT, or the gubernatorial election in any way.

Also CRT is bullsh**t we learn the opposite so that's all a bunch of lies too

If you are serious and not a troll, you might have inadvertently helped Youngkin anyway because that was NOT the narrative that went around. I keep hammering away here about the importance of OPTICS that so many Democrats just don't seem to comprehend. In politics, it doesn't matter what people's actual motives or intentions are. What matters is how it is conveyed by the media and perceived by the voters. And this walkout contributed to a perception of a Loudoun County in chaos thanks to wokeness gone mad, to the point that even the kids are fed up with it. Regardless of whether that's true or not, it's the narrative that's being widely spread nationally, and I imagine within much of your state as well.

I fully agree with you that the optics are awful... however, there was a situation at our school where a kid essentially threatened to "rape and put down" a specific person and received no punishment (still was on the football team, in classes with that girl)... The optics were awful in light of the national environment but I think it was necessary to show our school administration that we won't tolerate sexual harassment or assault in our school.

Usually the Forumlurker in me would just attack you for this, but I honestly understand given the circumstances. Y’all did what you felt was necessary and to be fair it was a serious safety issue for that person who was threatened. It’s honestly sad this happened at the worst timing possible, but that’s not your fault, and your protest was justified. Please don’t feel bad if Youngkin wins. Yes the walkout did cause some bad optics for sure, but you were doing it to protect a classmate. Hopefully McAuliffe overperformed anyways AND the DA is held accountable.


If I may ask, what is the vibe around these races where you live given everything that’s happened? Do you feel like a lot of people are voting? What do yard signs look like? Sorry I’m asking so much but you kinda are in a political center now.

[BigSerg]

Yes, it's real...
https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/1454552220649857034?s=20

Virginia Beach, Virginia (CNN)Terry McAuliffe claimed on Saturday that the Virginia gubernatorial election is "not about Trump" -- even though the Democratic gubernatorial candidate has invoked the former Republican President perhaps more than any other political figure.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/30/politics/terry-mcauliffe-donald-trump-virginia-governor-race/index.html

[It’s so Joever]

Yes, it's real...
https://twitter.com/jeffroe/status/1454552220649857034?s=20

Virginia Beach, Virginia (CNN)Terry McAuliffe claimed on Saturday that the Virginia gubernatorial election is "not about Trump" -- even though the Democratic gubernatorial candidate has invoked the former Republican President perhaps more than any other political figure.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/30/politics/terry-mcauliffe-donald-trump-virginia-governor-race/index.html

Proof CNN is BIASED REPUBLICAN MEDIA

[EJ24]

This race has taught me what a short-term memory the average voter really does have. The idea that Republicans are the champions of Education after spending the last 30 years mocking the idea that teachers deserve a raise or that Public Schools deserve more funding. It's just laughable that they are about to make this a winning issue and I'm not sure if it's reflective of how fickle voters are or how truly abysmal the Democratic party is at messaging.

[NOVA Green]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453852175046783029

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Thanks for sharing Vaccinated Russian Bear...

These look more updated than the data a VA poster shared some 15 pages or so back when I asked if anyone had benchmarks to look for.

I didn't want to go and manually transcribe all of his numbers into percentages, but here are some samples for rough %s that Youngkin would need to hit for a win:

I took some random rural counties as well as some of the "key counties / cities to watch"

Albemarle:  37%
Amerherst: 72%
Augusta:    77%
Bedford:    78%
Brunswick: 48%
Campbell: 77%
Chesapeake: 51%
Chesterfield: 51%
Culpepper: 65%
Frederick: 69%
Hampton: 32%
Henrico: 40%
James City: 52%
Lynchburg: 55%
Montgomery: 51%
Newport News: 38%
Norfolk: 32%
Pittsylvania: 74%
Prince William: 42%
Richmond City: 20%
Roanoke County: 66%
Spotsylvania: 59%
Stafford: 54%
Virginia Beach: 52%
York: 58%

[Senator Incitatus]

This race has taught me what a short-term memory the average voter really does have. The idea that Republicans are the champions of Education after spending the last 30 years mocking the idea that teachers deserve a raise or that Public Schools deserve more funding. It's just laughable that they are about to make this a winning issue and I'm not sure if it's reflective of how fickle voters are or how truly abysmal the Democratic party is at messaging.

The idea that favoring improvements to education requires favoring increased funding or increased pay for existing substandard teachers has been completely debunked by decades of research. Funding and outcomes are not correlated, let alone causal, but parental involvement and outcomes are.

In any case, a year of Zoom school showed many parents that the existing model of education has passed its usefulness.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This race has taught me what a short-term memory the average voter really does have. The idea that Republicans are the champions of Education after spending the last 30 years mocking the idea that teachers deserve a raise or that Public Schools deserve more funding. It's just laughable that they are about to make this a winning issue and I'm not sure if it's reflective of how fickle voters are or how truly abysmal the Democratic party is at messaging.

The idea that favoring improvements to education requires favoring increased funding or increased pay for existing substandard teachers has been completely debunked by decades of research. Funding and outcomes are not correlated, let alone causal, but parental involvement and outcomes are.

In any case, a year of Zoom school showed many parents that the existing model of education has passed its usefulness.

You’re not wrong, but it’s not like republicans are championing much else besides parochial schools

[Senator Incitatus]

This race has taught me what a short-term memory the average voter really does have. The idea that Republicans are the champions of Education after spending the last 30 years mocking the idea that teachers deserve a raise or that Public Schools deserve more funding. It's just laughable that they are about to make this a winning issue and I'm not sure if it's reflective of how fickle voters are or how truly abysmal the Democratic party is at messaging.

The idea that favoring improvements to education requires favoring increased funding or increased pay for existing substandard teachers has been completely debunked by decades of research. Funding and outcomes are not correlated, let alone causal, but parental involvement and outcomes are.

In any case, a year of Zoom school showed many parents that the existing model of education has passed its usefulness.

You’re not wrong, but it’s not like republicans are championing much else besides parochial schools

Republicans also push charter schools and homeschooling as alternatives, which will probably pick up even more steam than parochial schools.

Anyway, I think we'll see movement in a lot of different directions from both parties. As circumstances change, politics and policy change. Voters don't have short memories; they're just more aware of the real world than people who spend all day on a forum literally wearing political parties as avatars.

[hyouzel the predictor]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

Any individuals who are particularly incompetent in the VA Dems, or is it too broadly spread out to justify singling out anyone?

I know there was a major campaign restructuring in the summer for Terry's campaign that resulted in 2 months of dead silence while all the CRT/SB bullsh**t was going on, so that definitely didn't help. I don't think it is an issue with VA Dems as much as it is Terry's campaign just not knowing what they are doing. They clearly thought this race was safe until September so they didn't even campaign or do anything until that point whereas Youngkin has been out fighting all year. He has run an excellent campaign all things considered.


Also, as a Loudoun resident and LCPS student, I think it's crucial that everybody understands what is happening with this rape situation. The blame in placing this kid back into LCPS has nothing to do with the school board as it was out of their hands at that point (criminal charges). They legitimately did not know what happened as it was in the hands of the DA Buta Biberaj. I don't know why she decided the kid wasn't a risk (I've heard he was SPED) but she is the one who made the decision to place him back in schools, not the school board. Also, there is no evidence that this kid is trans or even was wearing a skirt other than what this girl said. I also want to say that the walkouts last week were not political in nature other than being mad at LCPS for tolerating rape culture in general (there was a specific situation at my school that exemplified this). As the kid literally in the front of the walkout, I can assure everyone on Atlas that it had nothing to do with trans kids, CRT, or the gubernatorial election in any way.

Also CRT is bullsh**t we learn the opposite so that's all a bunch of lies too

If you are serious and not a troll, you might have inadvertently helped Youngkin anyway because that was NOT the narrative that went around. I keep hammering away here about the importance of OPTICS that so many Democrats just don't seem to comprehend. In politics, it doesn't matter what people's actual motives or intentions are. What matters is how it is conveyed by the media and perceived by the voters. And this walkout contributed to a perception of a Loudoun County in chaos thanks to wokeness gone mad, to the point that even the kids are fed up with it. Regardless of whether that's true or not, it's the narrative that's being widely spread nationally, and I imagine within much of your state as well.

I fully agree with you that the optics are awful... however, there was a situation at our school where a kid essentially threatened to "rape and put down" a specific person and received no punishment (still was on the football team, in classes with that girl)... The optics were awful in light of the national environment but I think it was necessary to show our school administration that we won't tolerate sexual harassment or assault in our school.

Usually the Forumlurker in me would just attack you for this, but I honestly understand given the circumstances. Y’all did what you felt was necessary and to be fair it was a serious safety issue for that person who was threatened. It’s honestly sad this happened at the worst timing possible, but that’s not your fault, and your protest was justified. Please don’t feel bad if Youngkin wins. Yes the walkout did cause some bad optics for sure, but you were doing it to protect a classmate. Hopefully McAuliffe overperformed anyways AND the DA is held accountable.


If I may ask, what is the vibe around these races where you live given everything that’s happened? Do you feel like a lot of people are voting? What do yard signs look like? Sorry I’m asking so much but you kinda are in a political center now.

Yeah, I completely understand that the optics of this situation were awful but it was more important to show our school that we don't tolerate this.

There are a lotttt of Youngkin signs and veryyyy few McAuliffe signs. I interpret this not as an enthusiasm gap (which does exist but doesn't play much influence at this point) but the lack of county Dems having their sh**t together in terms of sign distribution. I am pretty sure Youngkin offered free signs at people's doors whereas Terry did a horrible attempt of textbanking for free signs that never got fulfilled (I asked for one literally 5 months ago and still haven't gotten an update.) There are a lot of people early voting which is great, general vibe is enthusiasm but honestly for being the political ground zero of this election it doesn't feel like it on a day to day basis. The Dems just announced they are going to be in the Leesburg Halloween Parade (all of them) so that'll be cool.

[Xing]

This race has taught me what a short-term memory the average voter really does have. The idea that Republicans are the champions of Education after spending the last 30 years mocking the idea that teachers deserve a raise or that Public Schools deserve more funding. It's just laughable that they are about to make this a winning issue and I'm not sure if it's reflective of how fickle voters are or how truly abysmal the Democratic party is at messaging.

I hate it whenever education becomes political. Most politicians quickly show how shallow their understanding of it is, and how little they know about what actually happens in classrooms. Either way, both parts of your last sentence are true.

[jamestroll]

This race has taught me what a short-term memory the average voter really does have. The idea that Republicans are the champions of Education after spending the last 30 years mocking the idea that teachers deserve a raise or that Public Schools deserve more funding. It's just laughable that they are about to make this a winning issue and I'm not sure if it's reflective of how fickle voters are or how truly abysmal the Democratic party is at messaging.

I hate it whenever education becomes political. Most politicians quickly show how shallow their understanding of it is, and how little they know about what actually happens in classrooms. Either way, both parts of your last sentence are true.

You teachers were just hiding behind a zoom camera for over a year while millions of Americans had to work and face to virus directly. From health care to retail.

There is a reason you teachers are not looking good now.

Forget about the critical race theory that is fake news, literally...  There are substantial problems with educators and teachers unions now that are probably going to cost Democrats another state.

[jamestroll]

I am not even a parent and I have had it up to my EARS with teachers.

Not hard to imagine how actual parents feel!

[jamestroll]

This race has taught me what a short-term memory the average voter really does have. The idea that Republicans are the champions of Education after spending the last 30 years mocking the idea that teachers deserve a raise or that Public Schools deserve more funding. It's just laughable that they are about to make this a winning issue and I'm not sure if it's reflective of how fickle voters are or how truly abysmal the Democratic party is at messaging.

The idea that favoring improvements to education requires favoring increased funding or increased pay for existing substandard teachers has been completely debunked by decades of research. Funding and outcomes are not correlated, let alone causal, but parental involvement and outcomes are.

In any case, a year of Zoom school showed many parents that the existing model of education has passed its usefulness.

hahahaahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahaahahah lmaoooo

the zoom classes teachers were pushing for so bad ending up coming back to haunt them.. lmaooooo

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/RonMilnerBoodle/status/1454592847613550592?s=20

[MT Treasurer]

^'Losing' these people was the best thing to happen to the Republican Party in a very long time. One of the few lasting accomplishments of the Trump presidency.

[Kamala's side hoe]

This race has taught me what a short-term memory the average voter really does have. The idea that Republicans are the champions of Education after spending the last 30 years mocking the idea that teachers deserve a raise or that Public Schools deserve more funding. It's just laughable that they are about to make this a winning issue and I'm not sure if it's reflective of how fickle voters are or how truly abysmal the Democratic party is at messaging.

The idea that favoring improvements to education requires favoring increased funding or increased pay for existing substandard teachers has been completely debunked by decades of research. Funding and outcomes are not correlated, let alone causal, but parental involvement and outcomes are.

In any case, a year of Zoom school showed many parents that the existing model of education has passed its usefulness.

I agree with your overall point on parental involvement, but that doesn’t mean individual teachers don’t have legitimate complaints about working conditions or administrative decisions from their districts and school boards. Teaching is arguably more stressful and demanding than other, better compensated occupations, and I don’t think certain demands from teachers are that unreasonable- with the caveats that I 1) do not work in education but have many peers who do, and 2) attended public schools in a suburban West Coast district that faced periodic budget issues at times. So I don’t have a good grasp on what the education situation is like in the lower Acela corridor.  

[NOVA Green]

No comments about my translation of some of the Wasserman benchmarks from 10/28/21, but all sorts of other random posts?

[Non Swing Voter]

No comments about my translation of some of the Wasserman benchmarks from 10/28/21, but all sorts of other random posts?

Wasserman is the worst professional politico IMO.  Look how bad a job he did at predicting 2020.  I don't trust his benchmarks at all.

[NOVA Green]

No comments about my translation of some of the Wasserman benchmarks from 10/28/21, but all sorts of other random posts?

Wasserman is the worst professional politico IMO.  Look how bad a job he did at predicting 2020.  I don't trust his benchmarks at all.

Then provide your own.   

Been cruising around to see if Miles (Atlas own legend who moved on to greener pastures) has any benchmarks posted on his Twitter channel.

Couldn't easily locate any, but looks like he is now working for Sabato's Crystal Ball (Based out of Virginia) so wouldn't be surprised to see Miles post something prior to ED....     

[BigSerg]

Extremely boring day. We will probably have the final Quinnipiac and Trafalgar poll on Monday.

Weekly Summary:

FOX: Youngkin +8
Echelon Insights: Youngkin +3
Big Data Poll: Youngkin +3
Washingtonexaminer: Youngkin +4
Roanoke: McAuliffe +1
WaPo: McAuliffe +1