Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Matty]

Please educate yourself on what happened in Georgia.

This is why so many blue avatars don’t post here anymore.

The excusing away of bad things dems do is just too stinky to handle

There is ZERO evidence that Abrams would have won if not for kemp actions

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1452360622784483329

[Pericles]

Please educate yourself on what happened in Georgia.

This is why so many blue avatars don’t post here anymore.

The excusing away of bad things dems do is just too stinky to handle

There is ZERO evidence that buffet-lover Abrams would have won if not for kemp actions

Lol you just had to take away from your point by insulting Abrams' weight.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Please educate yourself on what happened in Georgia.

This is why so many blue avatars don’t post here anymore.

The excusing away of bad things dems do is just too stinky to handle

There is ZERO evidence that buffet-lover Abrams would have won if not for kemp actions

Let's see what you and your family look like.

[LtNOWIS]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

Turnout (Voted by mail, ballot app, early vote)

10th district (Dem) = 88,533
9th district (GOP) = 45,798

Well yeah it looks great for the Dems when you compare a hugely overpopulated, growing district, with an underpopulated, shrinking district. You could also look at turnout like this:

3rd district (Dem) = 55,933
1st district (GOP) = 81,743

And how much of the 1st is from now overpopulated Prince William? I would be careful looking at early vote numbers because VA's history is very short for non-election day voting. Some 2020 mail voters have traditionally voted E-day and appear to be returning to it.

Yeah that was my point, that there is no direct comparison for early voting in Virginia. We have the excuse-required early voting in 2019 and earlier, and the no-excuse voting in the height of the 2020 pandemic. There's nothing like 2021. Presumably Democrats will do disproportionately well in the early vote, and Republicans will easily win the Election Day vote, but it's all about the margins.

Looking at the early votes by district on VPAP is fine. And you can break it down by city and county if you want as well. But with no basis for comparison, and without knowing how people in these areas are swinging, you can't draw any firm conclusions from that information.

I think McAuliffe wins but I'm not 100% convinced, and saying "look at the early voting data, safe D" is not a sound argument.

[It’s so Joever]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

Oh sh-
I thought suburban East Asians would swing D over time, but dang. Thanks for the update!

[lfromnj]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

Oh sh-
I thought suburban East Asians would swing D over time, but dang. Thanks for the update!

It's probably just the few Rs being more outspoken there. I guess maybe a few local issues based on school stuff as the TJ testing change may not be too popular among East Asians(Replacing Asians with whites/blacks/hispanics although it was pretty fair here, unlike the goal in NYC)

[Hollywood]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

I've noticed many Asians and Latinos at his rallies and events.  There are actually a few Korean videos that I saw expressing support for Youngkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hPgq55iuLc

Asians in my community started to turning away from Democrats last summer, because they were pissed about all the BLM dudes committing vandalism against their businesses and violent hate crimes against across the nation.  They saw right through the blame Trump nonsense.  They also felt discriminated against by Democrat-controlled state and local governments that wouldn’t provide Covid-19 relief funds to their small businesses.  Lastly, they feel targeted by local enforcers of Covid-19 restrictions, particularly in Democrat areas.  When I looked up these issue in reference to Virginia, the first article I found was about a Democrat Councilman that said Asians shouldn’t receive Covid-19 relief cause they “don’t give anything back to the black community.”  https://nextshark.com/chinese-restaurants-virginia-councilman-no-aid/

It seems pretty evident that Youngkin’s movement supporting parent input in schools has successfully pulled Asians into the Republican camp.  It also didn’t help Democrats when some schools recently set quotas that discriminate against Asians who qualify for advanced programs, classes, and schools.  Asian parents have filed suit against Fairfax County. 
https://legalinsurrection.com/2021/06/asian-enrollment-slashed-at-top-virginia-high-school-after-admissions-changes-subject-of-lawsuit/

[OSR stands with Israel]

So democrats yelling stolen election: that’s fine

Republicans yelling it : they are evil


The double standards are crazy and maybe both sides should be condemned when they yell stolen election

[ElectionsGuy]

Please educate yourself on what happened in Georgia.

This is why so many blue avatars don’t post here anymore.

The excusing away of bad things dems do is just too stinky to handle

There is ZERO evidence that buffet-lover Abrams would have won if not for kemp actions

Lol you just had to take away from your point by insulting Abrams' weight.

There's more evidence that Abrams loves buffets than that the election was stolen from her.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

TBH this is one of the more interesting anecdotal pieces of information. Asian voters strike me as a group where the test of global realignment versus campaign messaging will matter most. Looking at Canada and California, Asian voters, especially with degrees, seem to have moved strongly against parties perceived as weak on covid restrictions. Youngkin, for all his efforts to downplay it represents a party which cannot be described as anything other than "weak" on covid restrictions.

So if we have meta forces they should be trending left.

If they trend right, however, it indicates the Republican narrative that CRT/Education etc is resonating with them. That they dislike BLM activism and perceived Democratic weakness on the police.

It is also possible everyone on this thread is both right and wrong. There can be meta trends.

Korean ethnoburbs in NoVA aren't necessarily representative of VA Asian Americans as a whole- the most recent ACS data from 2019 says that the 3 largest Asian groups in the state are Indian (24%), Filipino (16%), and Chinese (14%). I wouldn't be too surprised if they're somewhat more R than other Asian groups, as Vietnamese Americans (which there are also a fair number of in NoVA) are known to be.

I don't think this anecdote contradicts my and Forumlurker's trend predictions for East/Southeast Asians though. It's entirely possible that said neighborhoods were R-leaning to begin with back in the Obama era.

[LimoLiberal]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

I've noticed many Asians and Latinos at his rallies and events.  There are actually a few Korean videos that I saw expressing support for Youngkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hPgq55iuLc

Asians in my community started to turning away from Democrats last summer, because they were pissed about all the BLM dudes committing vandalism against their businesses and violent hate crimes against across the nation.  They saw right through the blame Trump nonsense.  They also felt discriminated against by Democrat-controlled state and local governments that wouldn’t provide Covid-19 relief funds to their small businesses.  Lastly, they feel targeted by local enforcers of Covid-19 restrictions, particularly in Democrat areas.  When I looked up these issue in reference to Virginia, the first article I found was about a Democrat Councilman that said Asians shouldn’t receive Covid-19 relief cause they “don’t give anything back to the black community.”  https://nextshark.com/chinese-restaurants-virginia-councilman-no-aid/

It seems pretty evident that Youngkin’s movement supporting parent input in schools has successfully pulled Asians into the Republican camp.  It also didn’t help Democrats when some schools recently set quotas that discriminate against Asians who qualify for advanced programs, classes, and schools.  Asian parents have filed suit against Fairfax County.  
https://legalinsurrection.com/2021/06/asian-enrollment-slashed-at-top-virginia-high-school-after-admissions-changes-subject-of-lawsuit/

The video you linked is in Chinese, not Korean.

Also, you did not describe the TJ admissions changes accurately. There are no "quotas', although the Asian % did drop. The new system is a random lottery for those who meet a certain GPA threshold.

I would not consider myself "woke" or especially pro-affirmative action but I do think that there's something important to having public schools reflect the diversity of the communities they exist in. Having a 70% Asian school in an 18% Asian county is unsustainable. I also find the "meritocracy" argument for magnet high schools pretty ridiculous; the reality is that people from a variety of academic backgrounds can go into TJ (or Harvard or MIT) and succeed.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

I've noticed many Asians and Latinos at his rallies and events.  There are actually a few Korean videos that I saw expressing support for Youngkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hPgq55iuLc

The video you linked is in Chinese, not Korean.

Also, you did not describe the TJ admissions changes accurately. There are no "quotas', although the Asian % did drop. The new system is a random lottery for those who meet a certain GPA threshold.

Interestingly enough the video title is written in Traditional Chinese characters. But yeah, I wouldn't expect any less from a Trumpist who doesn't necessarily have skin in the game.

[It’s so Joever]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

I've noticed many Asians and Latinos at his rallies and events.  There are actually a few Korean videos that I saw expressing support for Youngkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hPgq55iuLc

The video you linked is in Chinese, not Korean.

Also, you did not describe the TJ admissions changes accurately. There are no "quotas', although the Asian % did drop. The new system is a random lottery for those who meet a certain GPA threshold.

Interestingly enough the video title is written in Traditional Chinese characters. But yeah, I wouldn't expect any less from a Trumpist who doesn't necessarily have skin in the game.

I’m sensing Taiwanese misinfo media.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yeah. I am wondering who these blue avatars, Non Swing Voter & Co keep ranting about, are. Are they just strawmen?

Perhaps the same ones who were off by 20 on the CA election?  Or the ones who said both GA seats would go to the GOP?  Or the ones who delete all their pre-election predictions after they are wrong (my favorite)? 

Also, are we all on the same page that Arlington isn't in Fairfax County yet? 

[Non Swing Voter]

Please educate yourself on what happened in Georgia.

This is why so many blue avatars don’t post here anymore.

The excusing away of bad things dems do is just too stinky to handle

There is ZERO evidence that buffet-lover Abrams would have won if not for kemp actions

Lol you just had to take away from your point by insulting Abrams' weight.

He had a point?  Why is attacking Abrams on her weight even allowed to go unmoderated here?

[Non Swing Voter]

So democrats yelling stolen election: that’s fine

Republicans yelling it : they are evil


The double standards are crazy and maybe both sides should be condemned when they yell stolen election

Stacey Abrams didn't lead a riot on the Capitol.  Pathetic that this is the best you've got.

[Non Swing Voter]

Please educate yourself on what happened in Georgia.

This is why so many blue avatars don’t post here anymore.

The excusing away of bad things dems do is just too stinky to handle

There is ZERO evidence that buffet-lover Abrams would have won if not for kemp actions

Lol you just had to take away from your point by insulting Abrams' weight.

There's more evidence that Abrams loves buffets than that the election was stolen from her.

^ This is literally the GOP talking point now. ^ 

Absolutely pathetic.

[Hollywood]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

I've noticed many Asians and Latinos at his rallies and events.  There are actually a few Korean videos that I saw expressing support for Youngkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hPgq55iuLc

Asians in my community started to turning away from Democrats last summer, because they were pissed about all the BLM dudes committing vandalism against their businesses and violent hate crimes against across the nation.  They saw right through the blame Trump nonsense.  They also felt discriminated against by Democrat-controlled state and local governments that wouldn’t provide Covid-19 relief funds to their small businesses.  Lastly, they feel targeted by local enforcers of Covid-19 restrictions, particularly in Democrat areas.  When I looked up these issue in reference to Virginia, the first article I found was about a Democrat Councilman that said Asians shouldn’t receive Covid-19 relief cause they “don’t give anything back to the black community.”  https://nextshark.com/chinese-restaurants-virginia-councilman-no-aid/

It seems pretty evident that Youngkin’s movement supporting parent input in schools has successfully pulled Asians into the Republican camp.  It also didn’t help Democrats when some schools recently set quotas that discriminate against Asians who qualify for advanced programs, classes, and schools.  Asian parents have filed suit against Fairfax County.  
https://legalinsurrection.com/2021/06/asian-enrollment-slashed-at-top-virginia-high-school-after-admissions-changes-subject-of-lawsuit/

The video you linked is in Chinese, not Korean.

Also, you did not describe the TJ admissions changes accurately. There are no "quotas', although the Asian % did drop. The new system is a random lottery for those who meet a certain GPA threshold.

I would not consider myself "woke" or especially pro-affirmative action but I do think that there's something important to having public schools reflect the diversity of the communities they exist in. Having a 70% Asian school in an 18% Asian county is unsustainable. I also find the "meritocracy" argument for magnet high schools pretty ridiculous; the reality is that people from a variety of academic backgrounds can go into TJ (or Harvard or MIT) and succeed.

I'm just affirming your claims about Asian support for Youngkin, and providing you with the some explanations expressed to me by dozens of Asians in my community.  Asians feel discriminated against, and some have filed a lawsuit.  

About 70% of the school was comprised of Asians who scored high on math, science, engineering, and technology.  Most of these children are second or third generation Asians.  

They replaced the exam with an essay, application, GPA requirement, and Algebra 1 pre-requisite.    http://thebullelephant.com/admission-test-for-tjhsst-eliminated/

I don't understand your disagreement with quotas.  The decision to change requirements was clearly rationalized upon increasing the proportion of African American students while decreasing Asian students.  There's an implied quota.  

Lastly, I think meritocracy arguments are extremely compelling for the fields this school prioritizes.  Yes.  Anyone could succeed if they work hard enough at something, but TJ seems to focus on subjects that require advanced skills and intelligence.  You need children that can attain high scores on tests under timed conditions.  Having a grade point average of 3.5 isn't really that impressive when you consider how school standards have been dumbed down, and the broad range of subjects contributing to someone's average may not be relevant to TJ's curriculums.  Then there's the children that score at genius levels, but will automatically be discounted due to poor grades.  

[Non Swing Voter]

These posts assume that asians are concentrated in certain areas of Fairfax.  While there are some, they are also very geographically dispersed even in areas of McLean, Great Falls, Vienna, Mt. Vernon, etc.  T-Mac will probably win 80% of Fairfax Asians.

[Hollywood]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

I've noticed many Asians and Latinos at his rallies and events.  There are actually a few Korean videos that I saw expressing support for Youngkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hPgq55iuLc

The video you linked is in Chinese, not Korean.

Also, you did not describe the TJ admissions changes accurately. There are no "quotas', although the Asian % did drop. The new system is a random lottery for those who meet a certain GPA threshold.

Interestingly enough the video title is written in Traditional Chinese characters. But yeah, I wouldn't expect any less from a Trumpist who doesn't necessarily have skin in the game.

Yeah.  Cause every Democrat can tell the difference between Korean and Chinese letters, right?   I speak three languages, but I suppose you expected that too.  

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Please educate yourself on what happened in Georgia.

This is why so many blue avatars don’t post here anymore.

The excusing away of bad things dems do is just too stinky to handle

There is ZERO evidence that buffet-lover Abrams would have won if not for kemp actions

1) Youre gross for using erroneous personal details to attack someone.

2) The issue isn’t whether she would’ve won or lost, the issue is that Brian Kemp/The State of Georgia took steps that directly lead to Minority voters in Georgia having less access to being able to vote then white voters.

Educate yourself on something other then FOX and OAN

Poll Closure;

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/17/924527679/why-do-nonwhite-georgia-voters-have-to-wait-in-line-for-hours-too-few-polling-pl

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/voting-precincts-closed-across-georgia-since-election-oversight-lifted/bBkHxptlim0Gp9pKu7dfrN/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-locations-idUSKCN1VV09J

Exact Match & Other Voter Supression Tactics

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-15/how-georgia-s-exact-match-program-was-made-possible

https://www.politifact.com/article/2018/oct/19/georgias-exact-match-law-and-its-impact-voters-gov/

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/03/663937578/judge-rules-against-georgia-election-law-calling-it-a-severe-burden-for-voters

(and before any of you say “oh updating your name isn’t that hard” unless you have an unusual name (like me) then you don’t understand how often and easy it is for misspelling/errors)

[Non Swing Voter]

Please educate yourself on what happened in Georgia.

This is why so many blue avatars don’t post here anymore.

The excusing away of bad things dems do is just too stinky to handle

There is ZERO evidence that buffet-lover Abrams would have won if not for kemp actions

1) Youre gross for using erroneous personal details to attack someone.

2) The issue isn’t whether she would’ve won or lost, the issue is that Brian Kemp/The State of Georgia took steps that directly lead to Minority voters in Georgia having less access to being able to vote then white voters.

Educate yourself on something other then FOX and OAN

Poll Closure;

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/17/924527679/why-do-nonwhite-georgia-voters-have-to-wait-in-line-for-hours-too-few-polling-pl

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/voting-precincts-closed-across-georgia-since-election-oversight-lifted/bBkHxptlim0Gp9pKu7dfrN/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-locations-idUSKCN1VV09J

Exact Match & Other Voter Supression Tactics

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-15/how-georgia-s-exact-match-program-was-made-possible

https://www.politifact.com/article/2018/oct/19/georgias-exact-match-law-and-its-impact-voters-gov/

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/03/663937578/judge-rules-against-georgia-election-law-calling-it-a-severe-burden-for-voters

(and before any of you say “oh updating your name isn’t that hard” unless you have an unusual name (like me) then you don’t understand how often and easy it is for misspelling/errors)

And the bigger issue is that Abrams didn't spend months and months infuriating people to the point of an insurrection.  She just refused to acknowledge the results and moved on.  That's happened before.  I don't necessarily agree with it even if she was slighted, but this is far different than what Trump did.  And it's pathetic that the GOP's talking point is that these are basically the same thing, when they simultaneously, as a party, won't even acknowledge that Biden won fair and square.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1452360622784483329

Also dear god has “truther” ever not been used to describe someone delusional? 9/11 truther, Vaccine Truther, etc. it’s literally the definition

truther
/ˈtruːθə/
nounINFORMAL•US
noun: truther; plural noun: truthers
a person who doubts the generally accepted account of an event, believing that an official conspiracy exists to conceal the true explanation; a conspiracy theorist.
"she denied evolution, AIDS/HIV, and was a 9/11 truther"

[Matty]

It's just kind of a joke to be honest.

glen youngkin is a republican straight out of the 90s and early 2000s. Handsome, milquetoast, business-oriented, etc.

He is not trump. Trump was the first gop politician basically ever to actually represent what democrats have claimed every republican has been in history: racist, mean, crass, dumb, etc.

This reminds me of repubs and the "socialist/marxist" card. It just doesn't work when people actually can listen to the candidates and see the attacks are silly.

Poll after poll shows that voters, while still favoring mcaufliffe, don't dislike youngkin. His favorably ratings always hover around +3 to +5. He is seen as a nice man who may be a tad out of step with the state.

But this joke of a forum, with a certain public sector union employee living in NOVA leading the way, treats him like he is trump 2.0

the democratic party is absolutely going to fall flat on its face in 2022 if it cannot get a message different from "BUT TRUMP!"

There is a reason why reddit election subforums and twitter users do not hold this forum in high regard. It's a wretched hive of far left grad students and hackery.