Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

The takes I have seen on twitter the past few days have been astonishingly ridiculous. I think it all comes down to the fact that Youngkin is rich and can self fund and is supposedly fairly moderate.

But I have some counter points.

1) Flooding the airwaves non stop can have a point of diminishing returns. At some point, all the money in the world is not going to change peoples minds and may even have a counter negative effect. See GA-06 2017 Special election.

2) Kirk Cox may have actually been the biggest threat to the Democrats for a variety of reasons. Consistent over performer in a lean to likely Democratic seat and was just conservative enough to hold his base in the general and just moderate enough to appear to be  a "nice caring guy". Plus his stint as a social studies teacher certainly helps.

3) Kirk Cox also would have had the regionalism advantage. Downstate people do not like Nova. Now it is literally McLean vs Great Falls. No regional advantage for the GOP in this race.

4) This Youngkin nomination, as I have brought up before, has literally woken Democrats up. I could easily see someone like Cox quietly sneak by with a complacent Democratic electorate. This will not happen now If anything Democrats are becoming wide awake and more aggressive.

5) Expecting suburban areas that voted heavily downballot for the GOP as late as 2016 (even if they voted for Clinton) and voted heavily for Romney in 2012 to remain as Democratic under Biden was not going to happen. But not all suburban areas are the same. No doubt some people in Loudoun County have changed their political perferences the past decade or so and no doubt some will be Biden-Youngkin voters but the sheer vote total boosts suggests that most of Loudoun's shift is literally new voters registering. Industry is important and the dominant industries of Nova lean Democratic heavily.

6) Though on the other hand I would be worried about the Hampton Roads area, with the only saving grace for Democrats there is the large black population.  No Virginia Beach City is not going to vote for the GOP by double digit margins but it will be a very tough area for the Democrats to  keep winning. Especially this year.

7) You know the person who did the worst in rural Virginia since the 2016 election? His name is Joe Biden. Even with that, look at county results east of the Shenandoah and compare them to similar counties in states south and west of Virginia. Democrats really did impressively well. Spanberger could not have won re-election with some rural support. I also do not expect rural areas to be as pro-Youngkin as they were pro-Trump.

My ratings before and after the Youngkin nomination:

Governor from Lean D to Lean D

Lt. Governor from Toss Up to Lean D

Attorney General from Lean D to Lean D

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/NJRedistrict/status/1392140042710261761

This is not Bush voters in 2000 and 2004 who wanted WARRRRR and suddenly switched Democratic in 2016 because of Trump's demeanor.

You can't say Warner lost Loudoun in a low turn out election in 2014 and think that Youngkin has a chance in it in 2012. Two very different elections.


Want to know the place where there could be a signficant shift to the GOP due to "Never Trumpers"? It is called Fairfax County, Viriginia.



Raw vote total has not change as much in proportion to Fairfax County's population. There is evidence there were a lot of Romney to Clinton/Biden voters who could easily vote for Youngkin. But Some people have fundamentally changed.

[Chips]

https://twitter.com/NJRedistrict/status/1392140042710261761
This is not Bush voters in 2000 and 2004 who wanted WARRRRR and suddenly switched Democratic in 2016 because of Trump's demeanor.

You can't say Warner lost Loudoun in a low turn out election in 2014 and think that Youngkin has a chance in it in 2012. Two very different elections.


Want to know the place where there could be a signficant shift to the GOP due to "Never Trumpers"? It is called Fairfax County, Viriginia.



Raw vote total has not change as much in proportion to Fairfax County's population. There is evidence there were a lot of Romney to Clinton/Biden voters who could easily vote for Youngkin. But Some people have fundamentally changed.

I think Youngkin needs somewhere in the middle of Romney's and Trump's performances in Fairfax to win.

[LtNOWIS]

Today is Thursday, May 13, 2021. I just checked my mail for today and saw that today I received 8 page booklet extolling the virtues of Kirk Cox for Governor.

Just figured I'd throw that in for flavor.

[Skill and Chance]

1) Flooding the airwaves non stop can have a point of diminishing returns. At some point, all the money in the world is not going to change peoples minds and may even have a counter negative effect. See GA-06 2017 Special election.

Agreed.  If it's close, this will not be why.

2) Kirk Cox may have actually been the biggest threat to the Democrats for a variety of reasons. Consistent over performer in a lean to likely Democratic seat and was just conservative enough to hold his base in the general and just moderate enough to appear to be  a "nice caring guy". Plus his stint as a social studies teacher certainly helps.

Disagree strongly here.  The voters deciding a VA statewide election, particularly with off-year turnout will be wealthy-ish businesspeople who intensely disliked Trump on a personal level.  Youngkin's background is a much better fit for them than Cox's background.  Furthermore, nominating a pre-Trump "lifetime legislator" is likely to depress base turnout at least a bit.  Finally, the efforts Youngkin's organization made to get long term unemployed people rehired last year are as likely to resonate with poorer, fiscally strapped swing voters as Cox's Medicaid expansion deal (voters who care about it are more likely to credit Dems for Medicaid expansion, Cox's deal was arcane and only stood for one legislative session anyway).   

3) Kirk Cox also would have had the regionalism advantage. Downstate people do not like Nova. Now it is literally McLean vs Great Falls. No regional advantage for the GOP in this race.

Disagree strongly.  When in doubt, having a NOVA R unambiguously helps. 

4) This Youngkin nomination, as I have brought up before, has literally woken Democrats up. I could easily see someone like Cox quietly sneak by with a complacent Democratic electorate. This will not happen now If anything Democrats are becoming wide awake and more aggressive.

Maybe if this ties into #1 and he drops $50M worth of ads over the summer, but Youngkin has so far been better about downplaying social conservatism than Cox or Snyder, let alone Chase.  Cox specifically would invite Dems to relitigate all the controversial McDonnell GOP trifecta era socially conservative laws.  Cox was in the legislature back then and generally voted for those bills. 

5) Expecting suburban areas that voted heavily downballot for the GOP as late as 2016 (even if they voted for Clinton) and voted heavily for Romney in 2012 to remain as Democratic under Biden was not going to happen. But not all suburban areas are the same. No doubt some people in Loudoun County have changed their political perferences the past decade or so and no doubt some will be Biden-Youngkin voters but the sheer vote total boosts suggests that most of Loudoun's shift is literally new voters registering. Industry is important and the dominant industries of Nova lean Democratic heavily.

Agreed.  Loudoun will be hard and Fairfax harder.  A big swing in Prince William is achievable, though, as is getting the exurban counties back to pre-Trump levels. 
 

6) Though on the other hand I would be worried about the Hampton Roads area, with the only saving grace for Democrats there is the large black population.  No Virginia Beach City is not going to vote for the GOP by double digit margins but it will be a very tough area for the Democrats to  keep winning. Especially this year.

Agreed.  This is the big opportunity and Youngkin has roots there despite currently living in NOVA.

7) You know the person who did the worst in rural Virginia since the 2016 election? His name is Joe Biden. Even with that, look at county results east of the Shenandoah and compare them to similar counties in states south and west of Virginia. Democrats really did impressively well. Spanberger could not have won re-election with some rural support. I also do not expect rural areas to be as pro-Youngkin as they were pro-Trump.

Yes, I would expect a NOVA businessman intentionally toning down his social conservatism to do a bit worse than Trump in rural VA, but not dramatically so.  The rural population is simply too small to swing the state anyway, so it shouldn't be the focus of a smart campaign.

I put it Lean D as well.  It's easy to see Youngkin cutting the margin to McAuliffe +2-4, but he needs everything to go right to get beyond that.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I put it Lean D as well.  It's easy to see Youngkin cutting the margin to McAuliffe +2-4, but he needs everything to go right to get beyond that.

Wouldn't it be more Likely D then? I'm not sure if folks are rating based on margins or likelihood

[Chips]

I put it Lean D as well.  It's easy to see Youngkin cutting the margin to McAuliffe +2-4, but he needs everything to go right to get beyond that.

Wouldn't it be more Likely D then? I'm not sure if folks are rating based on margins or likelihood

Margins.

[Spectator]

I put it Lean D as well.  It's easy to see Youngkin cutting the margin to McAuliffe +2-4, but he needs everything to go right to get beyond that.

Wouldn't it be more Likely D then? I'm not sure if folks are rating based on margins or likelihood

Margins.

That’s dumb. If we’re rating based on margins, Florida and Nevada would always be Tossup, but when one party wins 90% of races in those states, that’s not really a Tossup.

[Spectator]

Before the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I had this election as Lean Democrat. After the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I still have this race as Lean D. It has been wildly amusing to see people on twitter go from saying VA GOV is Safe D to now saying its Lean R or even Safe R pick up.

One take I have is that this nomination has woken the Virginia Democratic Party up and now they will not take this race for granted. I could have easily seen a nominee like Kirk Cox quietly win the governors race with a complacent Democratic base. That will not happen now.

Funny, you were one of those people on here having those changes of heart every post.

[jamestroll]

Before the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I had this election as Lean Democrat. After the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I still have this race as Lean D. It has been wildly amusing to see people on twitter go from saying VA GOV is Safe D to now saying its Lean R or even Safe R pick up.

One take I have is that this nomination has woken the Virginia Democratic Party up and now they will not take this race for granted. I could have easily seen a nominee like Kirk Cox quietly win the governors race with a complacent Democratic base. That will not happen now.

Funny, you were one of those people on here having those changes of heart every post.

Nope. I always had this race as lean d.

[Non Swing Voter]

A lot of Dems who usually vote in Presidential elections will sit this race out.

Combined with a financial edge from Youngkin, this will be a 50-49 race in either direction.

McAuliffe will certainly not win by 2% or more (you can quote me after the election).

No, no, no, 1000x no.  Virginia is a state where the educated population skews heavily democratic relative to the overall electorate.  Educated voters vote in off off years.  Advantage dems and they won't be sitting this out.  Turnout will be higher in NOVA as a percentage of the state than it was in 2020. 

This means for Youngkin (they are already calling him "Trumpkin") to win he will have to win over a significant chunk of fairly reliable Democratic voters in NOVA.  Highly unlikely unless he can completely focus the election on taxes, schools, and maybe a few other issues.  His main problem, aside from the tilt of the state is that Terry (who will likely be the D candidate) is a moderate on a lot of those issues.  So all he needs to do is tie Youngkin to the GOP and Trump (hence "Trumpkin") to win.

[Sir Mohamed]

A lot of Dems who usually vote in Presidential elections will sit this race out.

Combined with a financial edge from Youngkin, this will be a 50-49 race in either direction.

McAuliffe will certainly not win by 2% or more (you can quote me after the election).

No, no, no, 1000x no.  Virginia is a state where the educated population skews heavily democratic relative to the overall electorate.  Educated voters vote in off off years.  Advantage dems and they won't be sitting this out.  Turnout will be higher in NOVA as a percentage of the state than it was in 2020. 

This means for Youngkin (they are already calling him "Trumpkin") to win he will have to win over a significant chunk of fairly reliable Democratic voters in NOVA.  Highly unlikely unless he can completely focus the election on taxes, schools, and maybe a few other issues.  His main problem, aside from the tilt of the state is that Terry (who will likely be the D candidate) is a moderate on a lot of those issues.  So all he needs to do is tie Youngkin to the GOP and Trump (hence "Trumpkin") to win.

Yup. It may not be a double digit win for McAuliffe, by he'll win by at very least 5 pts. If I had to make a bet, I'd say he wins by 7.5 pts.

[President Johnson]

Interesting takes, but I disagree. I doubt Virginia elections one year ahead of the midterms tell us much of anything.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1393990656318660611

[Chips]

Interesting takes, but I disagree. I doubt Virginia elections one year ahead of the midterms tell us much of anything.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1393990656318660611

I agree with you.

[Spectator]

There are no “national implications” to be gleaned from a state that is 6 points to the left of the country besides the fact that if Democrats somehow lose this, we’re looking at a tsunami next year.

[Non Swing Voter]

You can put the "take" into context.  Virginia is a slightly blue state but it is not California or New York. 

If Youngkin makes this truly competitive then it probably does signal that the GOP will have a good year in 2022.  If Terry wins by around 5 then the House is a coin flip because both sides are engaged.  If Dems win by close to 10 again then it signals that nothing has changed since 2020 and Dems will retain the House.

I also want to see if the GOP overperforms or underperforms the polls.  Last time they underperformed.  If they do again I think it signals that the "shy" Trump voter is no longer voting with Trump off the ballot.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, VA and NJ happen to be solid Democratic states, so of course they have major implications for 2022 (even when they don’t). Youngkin losing by "close to 10" wouldn’t signal that Democrats are favored to retain the House or that Republicans won’t turn out in 2022, nor would Younkin losing by 5 signal "a coin toss" in the battle for House control. I hope people enjoy the spin for one year, though (we saw how it turned out in 2013 after McAuliffe's win supposedly indicated some national "backlash" against the obstructionist GOP that shut down the government or whatever when it was just a matter of VA being too blue by 2013/Sarvis hurting Cuccinelli).

Long story short, Youngkin does not need to make this race "truly competitive" for the GOP to have a good year in 2022. But that is pretty obvious, so....

[Non Swing Voter]

Well, VA and NJ happen to be solid Democratic states, so of course they have major implications for 2022 (even when they don’t). Youngkin losing by "close to 10" wouldn’t signal that Democrats are favored to retain the House or that Republicans won’t turn out in 2022, nor would Younkin losing by 5 signal "a coin toss" in the battle for House control. I hope people enjoy the spin for one year, though (we saw how it turned out in 2013 after McAuliffe's win supposedly indicated some national "backlash" against the obstructionist GOP that shut down the government or whatever when it was just a matter of VA being too blue by 2013/Sarvis hurting Cuccinelli).

Long story short, Youngkin does not need to make this race "truly competitive" for the GOP to have a good year in 2022. But that is pretty obvious, so....

No, it's not obvious.  I think Harry Enten is right for many of the reasons he stated in the article and you're completely wrong (and lack any analysis to support your wrong beliefs).

Also, Virginia is not a solid Democratic state like New Jersey, but nice try lumping it in.  It's odd how posters from Montana like to opine on Virginia but clearly don't understand its political dynamics at all.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well, VA and NJ happen to be solid Democratic states, so of course they have major implications for 2022 (even when they don’t). Youngkin losing by "close to 10" wouldn’t signal that Democrats are favored to retain the House or that Republicans won’t turn out in 2022, nor would Younkin losing by 5 signal "a coin toss" in the battle for House control. I hope people enjoy the spin for one year, though (we saw how it turned out in 2013 after McAuliffe's win supposedly indicated some national "backlash" against the obstructionist GOP that shut down the government or whatever when it was just a matter of VA being too blue by 2013/Sarvis hurting Cuccinelli).

Long story short, Youngkin does not need to make this race "truly competitive" for the GOP to have a good year in 2022. But that is pretty obvious, so....

No, it's not obvious.  I think Harry Enten is right for many of the reasons he stated in the article and you're completely wrong (and lack any analysis to support your wrong beliefs).

Also, Virginia is not a solid Democratic state like New Jersey, but nice try lumping it in.  It's odd how posters from Montana like to opine on Virginia but clearly don't understand its political dynamics at all.

Just realized that poster I responded to is MT Treasurer, who until last year was unaware that Arlington is not in Fairfax county, so now the completely wrong VA analysis makes sense.  I guess it's not a Montana thing.

[Non Swing Voter]

For non hacks, even if Virginia were a "solid blue state" like New Jersey, it clearly has red areas and swing areas and you can glean a lot of info based on how they vote.  The 2017 election made clear that Republicans were tanking in the suburbs, and especially educated suburbs.  To think how it votes in 2021 says nothing about the next election is ridiculous.  It tells you info on how regions are voting and you can put it into context that it's a year out and things could change.  Especially since both parties appear to be nominating bland white guys who aren't super controversial and bring their own baggage into the race.

[Roll Roons]

For non hacks, even if Virginia were a "solid blue state" like New Jersey, it clearly has red areas and swing areas and you can glean a lot of info based on how they vote.  The 2017 election made clear that Republicans were tanking in the suburbs, and especially educated suburbs.  To think how it votes in 2021 says nothing about the next election is ridiculous.  It tells you info on how regions are voting and you can put it into context that it's a year out and things could change.  Especially since both parties appear to be nominating bland white guys who aren't super controversial and bring their own baggage into the race.

New Jersey also has red and swing areas. Even though Murphy may be heavily favored, I think it's still somewhat worth watching.

And Virginia and New Jersey didn't even vote that far apart at the presidential level. The gap between them was much smaller than the gap between Virginia and, say, Maryland or Massachusetts.

[Non Swing Voter]

For non hacks, even if Virginia were a "solid blue state" like New Jersey, it clearly has red areas and swing areas and you can glean a lot of info based on how they vote.  The 2017 election made clear that Republicans were tanking in the suburbs, and especially educated suburbs.  To think how it votes in 2021 says nothing about the next election is ridiculous.  It tells you info on how regions are voting and you can put it into context that it's a year out and things could change.  Especially since both parties appear to be nominating bland white guys who aren't super controversial and bring their own baggage into the race.

New Jersey also has red and swing areas. Even though Murphy may be heavily favored, I think it's still somewhat worth watching.

And Virginia and New Jersey didn't even vote that far apart at the presidential level. The gap between them was much smaller than the gap between Virginia and, say, Maryland or Massachusetts.

Yes.  I just am partial to watching Virginia for obvious reasons - though if the GOP kept NJ close I think that would indicate a catastrophic year for Dems as Phil Murphy doesn't even seem to be doing a bad job.  And for that matter, Virginia is about as far from the national popular vote as North Carolina is the other way.  But I'm sure no-one would disagree that a NC election can tell us about the national picture.

The point is even states that lean one way can tell us things, despite MT Treasurer's unsubstantiated assertions to the contrary here.  An obvious example of this is Scott Brown's off year election to the senate in Massachusetts, a profoundly bluer state than Virginia.

[Tender Branson]

Why isn't anyone polling the VA Gov. race, now that the candidates are set in stone ?

The Dems still have an alibi primary, but no other than McAuliffe will win there ...

I'd even like a Trafalgar poll from there.

[Lief 🗽]

NARAL effectively endorses Youngkin for governor. Disgusting.
https://twitter.com/naralvirginia/status/1394338031352569861?s=21

[jamestroll]

There is a lot of disourse and debate on Twitter whether Yohngkin will carry Fairfax or Loudoun counties or not.

Well andectoally, people are still wearing masks in public inside in Nova. So I do rate both counties as Safe Tmac.