Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Gracile]

Didn't see this posted, but seems significant-

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1392125156613570570

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

especially when you call a region of the state fake.

Literally no Republican unironically uses terms like "libs" or "Fake Virginia" (certainly, the vast majority of Republicans don’t). You people should know better than to fall for his lame, lame act because your replies to him are far more annoying than his shtick (which is easy to ignore).

[Duke of York]

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/virginia-gop-lieutenant-governors-race-results-sears-jumps-to-early-lead-over-davis-hugo-for-lg-nomination/

Winsome Sears has won the nomination for Lt. Governor. She served as delegate for one term from 2002 to 2004 before making a failed run for congress in 2004.

[S019]

This race is pretty obviously Safe R, there are scores of Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters who will vote for Youngkin because they are worried about Biden's partisan actions in office, including repeatedly using reconciliation, not working with Republicans, and *gasp* floating repealing the filibuster. The voters in NoVA may be Democrats nowadays, but they are first and foremost moderates. Also all Youngkin needs to do is yell "Biden Off-Year Election" and he will win this in a walk.


Anyways to be serious for a moment, this race is obviously Safe D and I'd be shocked if it was within 5 for McAuliffe. If McAuliffe loses we're witnessing a Republican wave of monumental proportions and 2022 will likely put 1994 and 2010 to shame.

[Non Swing Voter]

This race is pretty obviously Safe R, there are scores of Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters who will vote for Youngkin because they are worried about Biden's partisan actions in office, including repeatedly using reconciliation, not working with Republicans, and *gasp* floating repealing the filibuster. The voters in NoVA may be Democrats nowadays, but they are first and foremost moderates. Also all Youngkin needs to do is yell "Biden Off-Year Election" and he will win this in a walk.


Anyways to be serious for a moment, this race is obviously Safe D and I'd be shocked if it was within 5 for McAuliffe. If McAuliffe loses we're witnessing a Republican wave of monumental proportions and 2022 will likely put 1994 and 2010 to shame.

Correct (the second paragraph).

[S019]

This race is pretty obviously Safe R, there are scores of Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters who will vote for Youngkin because they are worried about Biden's partisan actions in office, including repeatedly using reconciliation, not working with Republicans, and *gasp* floating repealing the filibuster. The voters in NoVA may be Democrats nowadays, but they are first and foremost moderates. Also all Youngkin needs to do is yell "Biden Off-Year Election" and he will win this in a walk.


Anyways to be serious for a moment, this race is obviously Safe D and I'd be shocked if it was within 5 for McAuliffe. If McAuliffe loses we're witnessing a Republican wave of monumental proportions and 2022 will likely put 1994 and 2010 to shame.

Correct (the second paragraph).

Yeah it's Safe D, my first paragraph and my username are just mocking the usual suspects who think this will be competitive lol.

[junior chįmp]

Youngkin...who sounds eerily like YOUNG KIM might keep it close by depressing AA turn out by reminding voters of Ralph Northams blackface scandal

[Virginiá]

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

right, gotcha - any region that doesn't support Republicans = "fake"

[jamestroll]

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

right, gotcha - any region that doesn't support Republicans = "fake"

It is funny to see complete melt downs on twitter and seeing people on Twitter go from saying the race is SAFE D to now SAFE R because of MUH spending.

But real Virginia is Nova and Richmond and will vote for Tmac in November

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Likely D race. I like Youngkin but VA is gone.

[Duke of York]

This race is pretty obviously Safe R, there are scores of Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters who will vote for Youngkin because they are worried about Biden's partisan actions in office, including repeatedly using reconciliation, not working with Republicans, and *gasp* floating repealing the filibuster. The voters in NoVA may be Democrats nowadays, but they are first and foremost moderates. Also all Youngkin needs to do is yell "Biden Off-Year Election" and he will win this in a walk.


Anyways to be serious for a moment, this race is obviously Safe D and I'd be shocked if it was within 5 for McAuliffe. If McAuliffe loses we're witnessing a Republican wave of monumental proportions and 2022 will likely put 1994 and 2010 to shame.

the second paragraph is one hundred percent correct. Same goes for House of Delegates. Democrats should hold it.

[Spectator]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

especially when you call a region of the state fake.

Literally no Republican unironically uses terms like "libs" or "Fake Virginia" (certainly, the vast majority of Republicans don’t). You people should know better than to fall for his lame, lame act because your replies to him are far more annoying than his shtick (which is easy to ignore).

I don’t know. I hear “radical leftists” and “SJW’s” from people occasionally  in my everyday life. I don’t think it’s uncommon.

[Chips]

Let's Talk Elections made a good video about this. He said that while Dems will be the favorites there is some chance the planets could align in the GOP's favor, and I agree with that. I'd say McAuliffe has an 80% chance of winning and Youngkin a 20% chance.

[Dr. MB]

Why do the Republicans not use primaries here?

[S019]

Why do the Republicans not use primaries here?

I think it was so they could avoid nominating Amanda Chase. Also they clearly learned from 2008 and had more mainstream people attend too. Given how insane the VA GOP base is, in a primary, they very well could have nominated Chase and she would have dragged down the whole ticket.

[Spectator]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Clinton would have beaten Trump in Virginia even if no votes were counted in Arlington, Alexandria, and the "inside the beltway" portion of Fairfax. Biden would have defeated Trump in Virginia even if no votes were counted in Arlington, Alexandria, all of Fairfax, and Prince William. It looks like "Fake Virginia" is growing ever larger each election cycle. Soon there won't be any "Real Virginia" left east of the mountains.

Warner would have still won last year without any votes from Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, PWC, Loudoun County, Manassas, Fredericksburg, Falls Church, and Stafford County. People fail to see it’s not just NOVA that has taken a sharp left turn the past 10 years. It’s the fact that Republicans are struggling in Chesterfield County, Henrico County, Lynchburg, Virginia Beach, and Chesapeake that is the real death knell for the VA GOP. They need to be winning these places by good margins to win statewide.

[President Johnson]

If anything, Trump's endorsement will hurt the guy. He's toxic in NoVa.

[Chips]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Clinton would have beaten Trump in Virginia even if no votes were counted in Arlington, Alexandria, and the "inside the beltway" portion of Fairfax. Biden would have defeated Trump in Virginia even if no votes were counted in Arlington, Alexandria, all of Fairfax, and Prince William. It looks like "Fake Virginia" is growing ever larger each election cycle. Soon there won't be any "Real Virginia" left east of the mountains.

Warner would have still won last year without any votes from Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, PWC, Loudoun County, Manassas, Fredericksburg, Falls Church, and Stafford County. People fail to see it’s not just NOVA that has taken a sharp left turn the past 10 years. It’s the fact that Republicans are struggling in Chesterfield County, Henrico County, Lynchburg, Virginia Beach, and Chesapeake that is the real death knell for the VA GOP. They need to be winning these places by good margins to win statewide.

I keep saying that a successful GOP run in VA will involve sweeping all the somewhat competitive counties downstate and then getting within 20% in Henrico, Loudoun, Prince William and get within 35% in Fairfax. Radford in particular could be a good indicator of the statewide vote.

[jamestroll]

Before the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I had this election as Lean Democrat. After the Glenn Youngkin nomination, I still have this race as Lean D. It has been wildly amusing to see people on twitter go from saying VA GOV is Safe D to now saying its Lean R or even Safe R pick up.

One take I have is that this nomination has woken the Virginia Democratic Party up and now they will not take this race for granted. I could have easily seen a nominee like Kirk Cox quietly win the governors race with a complacent Democratic base. That will not happen now.

[Woody]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

Then why do you guys always vote in people that want to subjugate the rest of the state, why do you always have to impose crap that nobody outside of your places want, and always infringe on other people's rights. If you came to Virginia to work that's fine, but why do you guys always have to look down on the state's natives and force your views upon them?

[Duke of York]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

Then why do you guys always vote in people that want to subjugate the rest of the state, why do you always have to impose crap that nobody outside of your places want, and always infringe on other people's rights. If you came to Virginia to work that's fine, but why do you guys always have to look down on the state's natives and force your views upon them?

do you seriously believe this or do you not understand how an election works? They are won by who gets the most votes not who wins the most land area.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

Republicans like SirWoodbury don't actually believe in democracy.

Then why do you guys always vote in people that want to subjugate the rest of the state, why do you always have to impose crap that nobody outside of your places want, and always infringe on other people's rights. If you came to Virginia to work that's fine, but why do you guys always have to look down on the state's natives and force your views upon them?

do you seriously believe this or do you not understand how an election works? They are won by who gets the most votes not who wins the most land area.

Land doesn't vote, people do.

[Skill and Chance]

McAuliffe will win by at least 5%.

The Virginia GOP is lucky that they didn't nominate Chase, but all that's really worth is them losing by less than an absolute blowout.

They could flip LG or AG if it's McAuliffe by 5 or less though.

[Tender Branson]

A lot of Dems who usually vote in Presidential elections will sit this race out.

Combined with a financial edge from Youngkin, this will be a 50-49 race in either direction.

McAuliffe will certainly not win by 2% or more (you can quote me after the election).

[Duke of York]

A lot of Dems who usually vote in Presidential elections will sit this race out.

Combined with a financial edge from Youngkin, this will be a 50-49 race in either direction.

McAuliffe will certainly not win by 2% or more (you can quote me after the election).

2013 and 2017 say otherwise.