Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[S019]

Convention means this is now for all intents and purposes Safe D, Amanda Chase isn't winning statewide. Bolling, Comstock, or someone similar now have no chances at the nomination.

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Sounds right

Interesting in terms of the comparison to Cuomo. I'm pretty sure I'd prefer Murphy to Cuomo though.

Murphy is definitely the less belligerent, more compassionate of the two, although he also doesn't have to deal with De Blasio mucking things up.

My somewhat hot take is that Murphy is probably more vulnerable in the primary than in the GE, his COVID response was really popular and in a state where any Republican must get almost a fifth of their total votes from Democrats if they hope to win, that makes getting those votes very tough, on the other hand, Norcross doesn't like him, and Murphy could have a closer than expected primary, if Norcross bankrolls a challenger.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

[S019]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

Yeah, he's one of those perennial names that seems to be in the mix for every race lately. He's not a terrible candidate, but not a great one either. He falls into that same "30%" field that I put most likely opponents in.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

Yeah, he's one of those perennial names that seems to be in the mix for every race lately. He's not a terrible candidate, but not a great one either. He falls into that same "30%" field that I put most likely opponents in.

What do you think about Jack Ciattarelli? He's the only real candidate who's officially in.

[KaiserDave]

The VAGOP is truly pathetic

[Skunk]

https://twitter.com/AJFriedenberger/status/1335323546122407939
I'm sure T-Mac is drinking rum right now to celebrate.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

Yeah, he's one of those perennial names that seems to be in the mix for every race lately. He's not a terrible candidate, but not a great one either. He falls into that same "30%" field that I put most likely opponents in.

What do you think about Jack Ciattarelli? He's the only real candidate who's officially in.

Really liked him three years ago, actually voted for him in the GOP primary. He's gone all in on the "Stop the Steal" nonsense and with it his chances went up in smoke.

[KaiserDave]

Lol VAGOP is dead

[tosk]

https://twitter.com/AJFriedenberger/status/1335323546122407939
I'm sure T-Mac is drinking rum right now to celebrate.

he was easily favored to win but this just about kills the Gov race competitiveness, assuming she follows through.

[Left Wing]

Time for a NUT map! Blue Amherst here we come!

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/AJFriedenberger/status/1335323546122407939
I'm sure T-Mac is drinking rum right now to celebrate.

lol VA Gov Lean D > Safe D

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

Thats true but as VT, NH, MA, MD, KY, and KS show us voters are a lot more likely to vote for a different party then they do for federal-level elections in state elections. and its 2017 its an off-year election turnouts gonna be low weird results are possible

[Not Me, Us]

Race is obviously safe D. What's Chase's ceiling?

[Canis]

Race is obviously safe D. What's Chase's ceiling?

I see her getting between 8-15 points but on a really good night she could get like low 20s at her max

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Feeling a bit frustrated with the decision to do a primary, but given the last time there was a statewide Republican primary it was won by Corey Stewart, I can't blame them for trying a different tack this time.  And if there are multiple candidates, they can do a runoff.  I think it would be good if they choose a "firehouse" convention with multiple locations.

I don't see Chase pulling a lot of votes, but it's hard to be sure.

[prag_prog]

What's the process to change the rule to allow governors to serve 2 consecutive terms? Is a majority in state assembly alone is enough to change the rule? Or do you need a super majority?

[LtNOWIS]

What's the process to change the rule to allow governors to serve 2 consecutive terms? Is a majority in state assembly alone is enough to change the rule? Or do you need a super majority?

It would require amending the state constitution. There is no supermajority requirement, but it's not just passing a law.

Both houses of the state legislature need to approve a proposed amendment by simple majority. That automatically refers it to the session after the next general election. If the state legislature approves it again, it goes to the voters to vote on directly. If they approve it then it's in the constitution.

[tosk]

What's the process to change the rule to allow governors to serve 2 consecutive terms? Is a majority in state assembly alone is enough to change the rule? Or do you need a super majority?

It would require amending the state constitution. There is no supermajority requirement, but it's not just passing a law.

Both houses of the state legislature need to approve a proposed amendment by simple majority. That automatically refers it to the session after the next general election. If the state legislature approves it again, it goes to the voters to vote on directly. If they approve it then it's in the constitution.

I actually dig this amendment process. Has there been any talk about modifying the governorship?

[jamestroll]

https://www.wsls.com/news/local/2020/12/05/campbell-county-crowd-protests-gov-northams-social-distancing-order/

what are they doing? For being a Democratic Governor and a physician, Northam has been quite lax on covid restrictions. Thank goodness.

But with the way they GOP is going to nominate their ticket this year.. we may get some crazy nominee like Kurt Santini for Governor.. who attended that rally.

[MT Treasurer]

lol VA Gov Lean D > Safe D

This race was always Safe D (with any Democrat/Republican).

[jamestroll]

lol VA Gov Lean D > Safe D

This race was always Safe D (with any Democrat/Republican).

I would be worried if Lee Carter is chosen as the Democratic nominee...

[MT Treasurer]

lol VA Gov Lean D > Safe D

This race was always Safe D (with any Democrat/Republican).

I would be worried if Lee Carter is chosen as the Democratic nominee...

There is no universe in which Lee Carter is chosen as the Democratic nominee, and if he somehow managed to win the D nomination, he’d definitely win the general.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

lol VA Gov Lean D > Safe D

This race was always Safe D (with any Democrat/Republican).

I would be worried if Lee Carter is chosen as the Democratic nominee...

He'd never win a primary. Its upper middle class suburbanites and African Americans that make up the democratic primary voters in Virginia. Even with the super low turnout because of the off year primary effect he's not going to convince either group

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

lol VA Gov Lean D > Safe D

This race was always Safe D (with any Democrat/Republican).

I would be worried if Lee Carter is chosen as the Democratic nominee...

He'd never win a primary. Its upper middle class suburbanites and African Americans that make up the democratic primary voters in Virginia. Even with the super low turnout because of the off year primary effect he's not going to convince either group

His only hope would be a major vote split with everyone cannibalizing each other, but I don't expect most of McAuliffe's opponents will last too long.

If he did sneak in with a plurality nom, I think he'd lose the general, but that's extremely unlikely.

[LtNOWIS]

What's the process to change the rule to allow governors to serve 2 consecutive terms? Is a majority in state assembly alone is enough to change the rule? Or do you need a super majority?

It would require amending the state constitution. There is no supermajority requirement, but it's not just passing a law.

Both houses of the state legislature need to approve a proposed amendment by simple majority. That automatically refers it to the session after the next general election. If the state legislature approves it again, it goes to the voters to vote on directly. If they approve it then it's in the constitution.

I actually dig this amendment process. Has there been any talk about modifying the governorship?

There hasn't been any impetus to change the term limit situation. In recent decades any popular ex-governors would just run for US Senate or something, if they wanted to stay active in politics.

There's also the dynamic that any ambitious legislator who advanced such an amendment would just be blocking their own path of advancement.