Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

The VAGOP just can't catch a break, lol.   What a mess.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1369046047037616129

So what happens now?  A normal primary?  A fallback convention site?

The VA Gop will have  a meeting on Friday to determine their nomination plans. It could be anything from a statewide primary (maybe too late) to multiple convention sites to party bosses just choosing the nominees.

[jamestroll]

Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).

Chesterfield County is almost certainly going to vote for the Republican candidate. The question is by how much.

[jamestroll]

Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).

Chesterfield County is almost certainly going to vote for the Republican candidate. The question is by how much.

Chesterfield voted for Biden/Warner by 7, it will not vote Republican.

7 points isn't that much of a margin to make up. It's certainly possible, although I doubt it'll happen. If there is suburban reversion, I would think it's more likely to happen near Richmond than in NoVA.

Well Henrico County is more Democratic slightly than Loudoun or Prince William in most elections and I dont believe there is a county wide Republican in Henrico.

I may have been to dramatic in saying that Chesterfield will vote for the GOP candidate. But the GOP is favored slightly there in November.

I have seen Chesterfield County compared to St. Charles County Mo. I strongly disagree with that comparison. Chesterfield is nearly 30% black and is more educated.

[jamestroll]

Virginia legislature speeds up pot legalization to this summer

From 2024, to before the end of this year.

Freedom State.

My state senator may get in the way of it..

https://twitter.com/BPaves/status/1379869685408206852

He should be primaried!!

But I do appreciate his pro business and pro reopening stances.

[jamestroll]

I'm very unlikely to change my mind so after being vaccinated this morning,  I went ahead and voted.

Voted for Terry Mcaufflie for Governor candidate, Sam Rasoul for Lt Governor and Jay Jones for attorney General.

[jamestroll]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/JoAnnePSears/status/1387001939863425028

This story is being over blown in the media and will not have the same impact as actual closing of schools but this is not good optics for the Virginia Democratic Party either.

To me, the progressive position would be trying to find each students strengths rather than try to have everyone equal in Math and Science.

[jamestroll]

For what it is worth, I am not dooming. I do believe this is a more likely Dem hold than WI-Gov. And the latter I have not even written for Democrats at all.

[jamestroll]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

But it is a clown car and that's what matters most.

Oh, I think Youngkin or Kirk Cox could defeat Justin Fairfax. At very least Fairfax would be an underwood.

Right now I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 3% or so.

I predict Terry Mcauliffe winning by 15 if it's Trump in heels as his opponent, if it's one of those fake moderate businessmen then I think he wins by 8-10. 

More like 5/6. It's not 2017 anymore.

with the growth in Northern Virginia a ten point win is possible.

But there has been mounting evidence that college educated whites have been abandoning Democrats. No, NOVA will not become a GOP region. Yes, I understand Northern Virginia is more liberal than many other wealthy suburbs or Obama probably could not have won Virginia in 2012 and Warner wouldn't have been able to get the Fairfax County margin he needed to win in 2014.

But Its impossible that the 70% Democratic vote total in Fairfax County will hold. Naturally it would be more of a 60-40 county.

The diversity of Nova, the anti-intellectualism of the GOP, and the GOP constant attacks on the federal government will prevent any major gop revival in Nova. But we can't assume Fairfax will vote as heavily for McAufflie as it did for Biden.

[jamestroll]

I am very concerned because god has told me that the GOP could win VA gov and the astrology seems to favor youngkin or mcaufflie but I need birth times to confirm that. I have emailed both campaigns but neither has given me their exact birth times so I am working with only their Date of Birth and birth location.

[jamestroll]

whoops.. I entered in a birth year wrong. Okay, does not look so bad for Democrats under the revised chart but hardly looks like a landslide race.

[jamestroll]

I'm worried the youngkin vs mcaufflie race will be so close that some violence between their supporters is possible

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/DelRichAnderson/status/1391420043611807750?s=20

Today is the AG count. The results will be a portent of the electorates composition.

Such a diverse group of the VAGOP's finest.

And they're surely all fully vaccinated, too, given that they're all gathered indoors in close proximity for a presumably extended period of time without a single one of them wearing a mask.

Uh no... its been challenging to get Republicans in VA to get their vaccine.

They want zero lockdowns .. which I strongly agree with .. but not willing to take any steps to mitigate spread or be vaccinated. It's contradictory 

[jamestroll]

The fact  that it was this close for the Attorney General nomination shows that Miyares has not been a strong campaigner anyway.

Probably still lean or tilt Democrat for the general election.

[jamestroll]

jimmie's rating is basically mine. Lean D.

Yes.. I am not entirely convinced college educated whites will still be voting Democratic.

I am actually not that worried about Nova at all. I am more worried about places Chesterfield County and Virginia Beach.

[jamestroll]

I am glad the other Democratic Candidates do not even pose a threat to McAufflie in the June 8th primary. I doubt any of them could even cross 45% of the statewide vote against Youngkin, who will have unlimited funds.

[jamestroll]

I am glad the other Democratic Candidates do not even pose a threat to McAufflie in the June 8th primary. I doubt any of them could even cross 45% of the statewide vote against Youngkin, who will have unlimited funds.

If anything the opposite is closer to reality - it's a question of how the GOP will get above the mid-high 40s to give them a win.

There seems to be more resistance to business restrictions and school closures than most Biden states. Though admittedly, schools are open and business restrictions were less here in comparison to most Biden states during the pandemic.

Data on college educated whites and Democratic support without Trump is very awful.

If Democrats  nominate an all Nova ticket, downstate could become an utter night mare for Democrats. The Nova college white Democratic vote is more sustainable than the college white vote in Richmond and Hampton roads.

But McAufflie is certainly the nominee and I voted for a McAufflie/Rasoul/Jones ticket for a reason. McAufflie is nearly 100% certain in the primary and a favorite in the general no matter how much money Youngkin has.

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

[jamestroll]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

As addressed above, you are putting a lot of stock into Morgan Griffith running unopposed (and also Wittman's thrashing of Rashid). But I also highlighted Ralph's approval ratings. I haven't seen anything from 2021, but the most recent approval poll I could find had Ralph at 56/39. He weathered the blackface scandal remarkably well, and if he was eligible he would win re-election without difficulty. Most people feel that he handled the pandemic well in terms of safety vs openness, and the liberal reforms instituted by the legislature these past two years are very popular. There's a reason why every dem candidate or Gov/LG/AG wanted his endorsement.

This race is not unwinnable for Youngkin, and it may very well be within 5 points. But close margins =/= uncertain outcomes, and Youngkin pretty much needs every possible thing to go right.

I agree with you.

Youngkin probably needs schools to be completely closed and Northam would have to have a change of heart and impose covid restrictions indefinitely to defeat Tmac.

Also remember, Youngkin has the ability to flood the air waves that TMac will not be able to and the non-Tmac Democrats would basically be DOA on Election Night. Basically poll closing calls for Youngkin. 

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

You’ve spent way too much time in the ‘reopen schools’ echo chamber.

No it is a group called Reopen Virginia. I am not as active there anymore since they have been going anti-vaccine.

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

An underrated possibility is that R's snag LG and or AG if McAuliffe wins narrowly, but after seeing the 2020 results, there are now 51 HOD districts that are clearly left of the state.  Pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 on a bad night, though.  

Yes.. the redraw made seat 51 quite strong.

I would be interested to see if the GOP tries to contest VA in 2024 if they manage to win everything in November and retake the state senate in 2023.

[jamestroll]

Every Democrat in Virginia should unite and vote for TMac in the primary. We must do all we can to prevent Lee Carter from being the nominee. Lee Carter would be destroyed. Oh and of course.. our rapist Lt. Governor.

It would be nice if the other candidates dropped out today, and endorsed TMAC before Youngkin is able to blast the airwaves and build up an insurmountable lead. We’ll see how many of them actually value keeping the far-right out of power over continuing their divisive vanity campaigns though.

Basically I think the HoD is a toss up with McAufflie.

My predictions are:

Tmac by 3 over Youngkin

Jennifer Carol Foy or Jennifer Mcclellan would lose to Youngkin by 7 to 10.

Fairfax or Carter by atleast 15 points losing to Youngkin.

An underrated possibility is that R's snag LG and or AG if McAuliffe wins narrowly, but after seeing the 2020 results, there are now 51 HOD districts that are clearly left of the state.  Pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 on a bad night, though.  

Yes.. the redraw made seat 51 quite strong.

I would be interested to see if the GOP tries to contest VA in 2024 if they manage to win everything in November and retake the state senate in 2023.

Stop being melodramatic. If the GOP wins the governor’s race, it’s a fluke like Democrats winning a random race in Iowa.

It is not being melodramatic. And contesting a state doesn't mean it will be successful. We all know how success Biden's appearances in Ohio were.

[jamestroll]

It's official:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1391931893013229568

I still rank it as lean D.

As I stated earlier in this thread, I had birth data incorrect for both TMac and Youngkin .. but when i enter in corrected birth data, the astrology does look better for McAufflie. With the incorrect data, Youngkin would have been heavily favored.

[jamestroll]

Between tomorrow and Nov 2nd, Glenn Youngkin has the resources to blast the airwaves, digital ads, and mailers.. literally 24 hours a day.. which does scare me.