AOC [doesn’t] posts worst result in NY-14 in 25 years

[lfromnj]

For the last time. NY has not counted mail in ballots. And they break heavily Democrat.

So...let us wait.

Of course but you have a similar pattern with Ilhan Omar.

So? Make this about Omar then. Don't run false narratives off of incomplete data.

And Tlaib isn't  underperfoming btw. Id wait for everything.

[lfromnj]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

[lfromnj]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

Orange county is almost finished and only swung 1 point D, Asian + hispanic trend counteracted the white trend.

[lfromnj]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

There's also Pima, and in Colorado, New Mexico, and central Texas. The Hispanic vote is highly anti-monolithic.

Tucson whites vote D, again if you actually look at the Hispanic precincts in those areas they  probably shifted right. Its just the white shift was stronger. Harris and Dallas had hispanic shifts and Im pretty sure San Antonio did too. The white shift was just more strong. Will have to check Colorado, some of the rural southern Hispanic counties continued to swing R but Pueblo narrowly flipped back.

I think people really don't realize how liberal AZ whites are atleast relatively, they are almost the same as WI whites.

[lfromnj]

Wow, I got bingo early on in this thread!

LETS GO!

Top left already taken care of, tbh that should be the free space at this point.

Overall Macarthur's analysis is trash due to the election not even being fully over with regards to counts but the rebuttals come just as trashy. Defend your #queen or whatever better, we all know its projection about the feet pics.

[lfromnj]

MI 13th

Clinton 79%/ 18%
Tlaib 78%/ 18%

[lfromnj]

The Legal weed now party share was higher in MN 5th than anywhere else, a lot of it was a valid form of protest votes against Omar not just low info voters. Infact the suburban super rich precincts had the worst performance for Omar relative to Biden. There was some Biden+40 precinct that Omar lost in Edina!!. To be fair this precinct is insanely upscale, such that even Klobuchar's 2018 performance was behind Biden's

https://twitter.com/BHIndepMO/status/1331648686070267905

But LOL at the idea it was "low info"voters. These people knew who Omar was and they accordingly voted against her by either choosing the Republican or 3rd party.

[lfromnj]

The Legal weed now party share was higher in MN 5th than anywhere else, a lot of it was a valid form of protest votes against Omar not just low info voters. Infact the suburban super rich precincts had the worst performance for Omar relative to Biden. There was some Biden+40 precinct that Omar lost in Edina!!. To be fair this precinct is insanely upscale, such that even Klobuchar's 2018 performance was behind Biden's

https://twitter.com/BHIndepMO/status/1331648686070267905

But LOL at the idea it was "low info"voters. These people knew who Omar was and they accordingly voted against her by either choosing the Republican or 3rd party.

Alternatively, it could be both.

No these rich voters are the source of Omar's biggest underperformance. These people are educated and relatively tuned in. Their main issue isn't "legal weed now" If they voted for that person it was a form of protest against Ilhan Omar.

[lfromnj]

Everyone does know the GOP candidate was black right?.

"Muh Racism"

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1333260842138284032

Tlaib ran only 0.7% behind Biden  and actually slightly better by total margin.

[lfromnj]

Tbf still not a great result when you consider downballot/topballot performance. It was Clinton +57 so generally an area that swings R should still have D overperformance at the top of the ballot. On the other hand Omar's underperformance is a bit increased by the fact that her district is very upscale and trended to the left this year meaning she should have still underperformed Biden like Phillips did.