AOC [doesn’t] posts worst result in NY-14 in 25 years

[GeneralMacArthur]

Only 91% reporting, but so far it's looking like she'll be the first Democrat since 1994 to go below 70%.  She's underperforming her 2018 numbers by 10%.

Year	Candidate	Percent
1994	Carolyn B. Maloney	58.2%
1996	Carolyn B. Maloney	72.4%
1998	Carolyn B. Maloney	77.4%
2000	Carolyn B. Maloney	73.9%
2002	Carolyn B. Maloney	75.3%
2004	Carolyn B. Maloney	81.1%
2006	Carolyn B. Maloney	84.5%
2010	Carolyn B. Maloney	75.1%
2012	Joe Crowley	83.2%
2014	Joe Crowley	74.7%
2016	Joe Crowley	70.1%
2018	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	78.0%
2020	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	68.8%

Ilhan Omar also posted the worst results in MN-05 history since 1996 (with the exception of 2006 when there was a Democrat running independent drawing 22%).

[StateBoiler]

Only 91% reporting, but so far it's looking like she'll be the first Democrat since 1994 to go below 70%.  She's underperforming her 2018 numbers by 10%.

Year	Candidate	Percent
1994	Carolyn B. Maloney	58.2%
1996	Carolyn B. Maloney	72.4%
1998	Carolyn B. Maloney	77.4%
2000	Carolyn B. Maloney	73.9%
2002	Carolyn B. Maloney	75.3%
2004	Carolyn B. Maloney	81.1%
2006	Carolyn B. Maloney	84.5%
2010	Carolyn B. Maloney	75.1%
2012	Joe Crowley	83.2%
2014	Joe Crowley	74.7%
2016	Joe Crowley	70.1%
2018	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	78.0%
2020	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	68.8%

Ilhan Omar also posted the worst results in MN-05 history since 1996 (with the exception of 2006 when there was a Democrat running independent drawing 22%).

Think the 2010 and 2012 district are not the same one.

[KaiserDave]

For the last time. NY has not counted mail in ballots. And they break heavily Democrat.

So...let us wait.

[Frenchrepublican]

It’s probably that her district is full of kulaks.

[Bootes Void]

how is Biden performing?

[Frenchrepublican]

For the last time. NY has not counted mail in ballots. And they break heavily Democrat.

So...let us wait.

Of course but you have a similar pattern with Ilhan Omar.

[Gracile]

For the last time. NY has not counted mail in ballots. And they break heavily Democrat.

So...let us wait.

This. It's incredibly annoying that people are unable to wait for final results before wheeling out hot takes (not just referring to the OP here).

[KaiserDave]

For the last time. NY has not counted mail in ballots. And they break heavily Democrat.

So...let us wait.

Of course but you have a similar pattern with Ilhan Omar.

So? Make this about Omar then. Don't run false narratives off of incomplete data.

[lfromnj]

For the last time. NY has not counted mail in ballots. And they break heavily Democrat.

So...let us wait.

Of course but you have a similar pattern with Ilhan Omar.

So? Make this about Omar then. Don't run false narratives off of incomplete data.

And Tlaib isn't  underperfoming btw. Id wait for everything.

[Holmes]

lol you really tried to make a point based on incomplete results

[lfromnj]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

[KaiserDave]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

[GALeftist]

Couple things:

1. No mail in ballots

2. Why are you comparing NY-14 before and after redistricting? Doesn't seem like it's apples to apples, since the district shifted. I'd say the better comparison until 2010 was NY-07. Doesn't really affect your point but I thought it was weird.

[lfromnj]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

Orange county is almost finished and only swung 1 point D, Asian + hispanic trend counteracted the white trend.

[Torie]

For the last time. NY has not counted mail in ballots. And they break heavily Democrat.

So...let us wait.

Well in a CD with so few registered Pubs, it is hard to know just how much more heavily the break will be, particularly if absentee voters are more educated with higher incomes, which may make them more likely to defect from the Dem line in this race. The Dem bias will vary a lot across the state as compared to the existing vote. My county will have one of the highest Dem biases, my ballot being in that pile waiting to be counted. If I lived in NY-14, I certainly would cast a protest vote against her circus act.

[KaiserDave]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

There's also Pima, and in Colorado, New Mexico, and central Texas. The Hispanic vote is highly anti-monolithic.

[GALeftist]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

There's also Pima, and in Colorado, New Mexico, and central Texas. The Hispanic vote is highly anti-monolithic.

Theory: maybe the uniform bounce is because Trump hit the GOP floor among Hispanics in 2016 and not due to some broad cultural shift. Obv unprovable until we go through a few more cycles but I thought it might explain it a little outside of obvious big shifts like the RGV and Miami-Dade.

[lfromnj]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

There's also Pima, and in Colorado, New Mexico, and central Texas. The Hispanic vote is highly anti-monolithic.

Tucson whites vote D, again if you actually look at the Hispanic precincts in those areas they  probably shifted right. Its just the white shift was stronger. Harris and Dallas had hispanic shifts and Im pretty sure San Antonio did too. The white shift was just more strong. Will have to check Colorado, some of the rural southern Hispanic counties continued to swing R but Pueblo narrowly flipped back.

I think people really don't realize how liberal AZ whites are atleast relatively, they are almost the same as WI whites.

[GALeftist]

Also one more thing- The Bronx is gonna swing a decent bit to the right this year. Hispanic gains are pretty uniform.

Not really true.

Arizona is the best example of this.

Actually Arizona proves my point?

Why isn't Biden winning Arizona by more?

Its because of Hispanics, look at Santa Cruz and Yuma. The Hispanic electorate is pretty small in Arizona anyway- whites still form the majority of D voters and they swung a decent bit D which easily masks any hispanic trend.

There's also Pima, and in Colorado, New Mexico, and central Texas. The Hispanic vote is highly anti-monolithic.

Theory: maybe the uniform bounce is because Trump hit the GOP floor among Hispanics in 2016 and not due to some broad cultural shift. Obv unprovable until we go through a few more cycles but I thought it might explain it a little outside of obvious big shifts like the RGV and Miami-Dade.

Biden did worse in the RGV than Obama, actually his performance was the weakest for a democrat since Kerry.

Theory: maybe the uniform bounce is because Trump hit the GOP floor among Hispanics in 2016 and not due to some broad cultural shift. Obv unprovable until we go through a few more cycles but I thought it might explain it a little outside of obvious big shifts like the RGV and Miami-Dade.

bruh

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not even a week after the election and folks are aching to restart the center/far left conflict. It's like the last 8 months never happened.

I don't know what I'm more surprised by. That this is based on incomplete results or that the bitching didn't start within 24 hours of polls closing

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

You need to compare her vote total against Biden's currently. I suspect she is still running behind Biden. She certainly does not help Democrats with the act she puts on through the media.

One of the most frightening articles I read in a while was speculation that Biden could appoint Gillibrand to a cabinet position, thereby opening the door for Cuomo to appoint AOC to the Senate. I sincerely hope the governor is not that stupid.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good she had planned on challenging Schumer, that won't happen, she was a star when she got Market reelected over AA favored candidate Joe Kennedy, but all her goals of future leadership is out the window😃😃😃 ha, ha

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

You need to compare her vote total against Biden's currently. I suspect she is still running behind Biden. She certainly does not help Democrats with the act she puts on through the media.

One of the most frightening articles I read in a while was speculation that Biden could appoint Gillibrand to a cabinet position, thereby opening the door for Cuomo to appoint AOC to the Senate. I sincerely hope the governor is not that stupid.

He's pretty thick, but not inclined towards boosting anyone not already part of the NY machine.

[Xing]

Hey guys, can we not start the 2024 primary yet? How about we acknowledge that there are definite disagreements within the Democratic Party (and we should discuss them without eating each other alive), but that moderates and progressives need to have each other’s backs to have any chance of winning elections?

[VAR]

Classic GMA thread