AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that's weird to think about is Kelly could def win while only carrying 3 of the state's 9 congressional districts (AZ-03, AZ-04, and AZ-07).

A bit part of this race will depend upon if Kelly is able to get Biden margins out of AZ-04. The GOP collapse in this district has been insane going from Romney to Clinton + 2 to Biden + 10. In 2020, Kelly won it by 12 points.

If Dems can start getting this district to vote like D+20, then the GOP is likely to have a very very hard time winning statewide. On the flipside, it's necessary for Dems to win here by at least 10% or so to wins statewide.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing that's weird to think about is Kelly could def win while only carrying 3 of the state's 9 congressional districts (AZ-03, AZ-04, and AZ-07).

A bit part of this race will depend upon if Kelly is able to get Biden margins out of AZ-04. The GOP collapse in this district has been insane going from Romney to Clinton + 2 to Biden + 10. In 2020, Kelly won it by 12 points.

If Dems can start getting this district to vote like D+20, then the GOP is likely to have a very very hard time winning statewide. On the flipside, it's necessary for Dems to win here by at least 10% or so to wins statewide.

A Kelly win likely sees him win AZ-01 too albeit narrowly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that's weird to think about is Kelly could def win while only carrying 3 of the state's 9 congressional districts (AZ-03, AZ-04, and AZ-07).

A bit part of this race will depend upon if Kelly is able to get Biden margins out of AZ-04. The GOP collapse in this district has been insane going from Romney to Clinton + 2 to Biden + 10. In 2020, Kelly won it by 12 points.

If Dems can start getting this district to vote like D+20, then the GOP is likely to have a very very hard time winning statewide. On the flipside, it's necessary for Dems to win here by at least 10% or so to wins statewide.

A Kelly win likely sees him win AZ-01 too albeit narrowly.

Yeah maybe. The district does tend to be a bit redder down ballot and Kelly did the same as Biden in the district despite doing 2 points better statewide in 2020. I think he very well could win both AZ-01 and AZ-06 but there def seems to be that small window for a Kelly statewide win with only 3 CDs.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1585263286320250880

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1585263286320250880

something something Death, Taxes, and Trump Grifting

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1585587190624657408?t=1C3wDSFNwtH9F4RNO...

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1585587190624657408?t=1C3wDSFNwtH9F4RNO...

Moving it to lean D was very premature in my opinion. In a year where the GCB seems to be R leaning, it’s very hard to argue Kelly was lean D, especially since polling didn’t make much sense before and was always bound to narrow

[wbrocks67]

Do all these forecasters talk on the side? Cook and Politico literally both changed the race at the same time today with the same "Black is back in this!" storyline.

Also just curious how has the "overall environment" in Arizona changed as ... opposed to 2-3 weeks ago?

SLF has seemingly given up on this race, though Masters is still getting a good amount of outside spending from various super PACs. Have to imagine the rates are terrible though now.

[wbrocks67]

If I'm reading this right, Kelly raised $6M+ in just 18 days from 10/1-10/18

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585694107980091392

[soundchaser]

Curious to know if this tightening lines up with Pollster's view of the race (if he's doing any work in Arizona this cycle).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1587390663968137217

[SnowLabrador]

Is it just me, or have third-party candidates been dropping out more frequently this year than in past years? That being said, this definitely helps Masters, the only question is how much. In as close a race as this one, it could be decisive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That isn't bad for Kelly it's bad for Masters

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it just me, or have third-party candidates been dropping out more frequently this year than in past years? That being said, this definitely helps Masters, the only question is how much. In as close a race as this one, it could be decisive.

Certainly every vote helps in a close race, but there are a few factors why this probably isn't that big a deal:

1. It's very late in the race, and Arizona is a heavy early voting state.  If Victor had done this a month ago, it would be likely to have more effect.

2. Many people who vote for third-party candidates aren't necessarily true believers in the third party; they're unhappy with both major party candidates and are looking for an alternative or a protest vote.  This type of voter is more likely to switch to another third party, leave the race blank, or vote for Victor anyway; he's still on the ballot. 

3. Even the true Libertarian believers may not be overly inclined to switch to another candidate just because Victor endorsed him; Libertarians tend to be an ornery free-thinking group.

[citizenZ]

With Marc Victor dropping out and endorsing Blake Masters, I would assume this is a pure toss-up.

[UncleSam]

So I do think Masters will gain some net votes from Victor dropping out and endorsing him, but probably only a fairly small portion of what was already a small % of the vote. The fact that many votes are already cast + some people just don’t wanna vote for the D or R + some will vote for Kelly anyway regardless of the endorsement + how many will even hear about the endorsement is a pretty telling combination of circumstances that will minimize this impact.

I’d say this might help Masters in a situation where AZ is decided by <10k votes, though even then I’m not sure he will gain that many.

[UncleSam]

One more point: Jo Jorgensen got ~50k votes in 2020. So that is likely the upper bound on how many people could theoretically be impacted by this move.

Let’s assume 25% have already voted, 25% don’t care and just won’t vote, and of the remaining 50% Masters wins 25% and Kelly wins 5%.

That would result in Masters gaining net 10k votes at absolute maximum, likely lower due to turnout being lower in a midterm than a presidential. So probably more like 5-7k or something.

Again, not nothing, but pretty small impact.

[Ferguson97]

Obviously helps Masters at least a little bit, but when did AZ early/mail-in voting start?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Basically any libertarian hack will find the candidate's decision to endorse Masters as a betrayal and will just vote "L" anyways. Anyone who isn't a libertarian who intends to vote "L" doesn't care what this loser has to say and will vote "L" because they dislike the two other choices on the ballot.

[Senator Incitatus]

I did always think it was weird that Masters, one of the most libertarian candidates in history by background, had a strong libertarian opponent. Interesting to see him personally square that circle by citing Hayek and Mises to the guy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1587508163640598528

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1587508163640598528

I think this is a very subtle but important point. The fact that many votes have already been cast does not lessen the importance of Victor dropping it, it magnifies it. All cohorts, including independents and probably libertarians, are more right-leaning the later they vote. There’s a very good chance that Kelly would be the majority second choice of Victor early voters, but Masters is the second choice of Election Day Victor voters. He may have eaten up some votes from Kelly but will have less of an opportunity to take them from Masters now.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/JenAFifield/status/1587508163640598528

I think this is a very subtle but important point. The fact that many votes have already been cast does not lessen the importance of Victor dropping it, it magnifies it. All cohorts, including independents and probably libertarians, are more right-leaning the later they vote. There’s a very good chance that Kelly would be the majority second choice of Victor early voters, but Masters is the second choice of Election Day Victor voters. He may have eaten up some votes from Kelly but will have less of an opportunity to take them from Masters now.

I doubt it has any material impact.

Much like Victor, the 2018 Green candidate dropped out days before the election and endorsed Sinema. They got 2.5 percent of the mail vote and over 2 percent of the ED vote despite dropping. https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

I think 3rd party voters are just gonna do their thing and register their displeasure with the main party candidates. Victor still probably gets 1.5-2.5 percent of the vote.

[citizenZ]

Masters picked up a celebrity endorsement today

https://twitter.com/MastersPress/status/1588537273876090881

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tcani/status/1588801720918085636