Harley Rouda (D) has lost re-election in CA48

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325242564543307776

He would need to win an impossible 83% of remaining vote in the district

[Jeppe]

There are 33k votes left in OC. CA-48 has cast 25.6% of the vote in Orange County so far.

There are approximately ~8,500 votes left to count in CA-48.

By my calculations, Rouda would need to win 91% of the remaining ballots to win.

[Matty]

There are 33k votes left in OC. CA-48 has cast 25.6% of the vote in Orange County so far.

There are approximately ~8,500 votes left to count in CA-48.

By my calculations, Rouda would need to win 91% of the remaining ballots to win.

Did rouda do something that pissed off voters in this district?

[SnowLabrador]

There are 33k votes left in OC. CA-48 has cast 25.6% of the vote in Orange County so far.

There are approximately ~8,500 votes left to count in CA-48.

By my calculations, Rouda would need to win 91% of the remaining ballots to win.

Did rouda do something that pissed off voters in this district?

Probably not being a Republican.

[Jeppe]

There are 33k votes left in OC. CA-48 has cast 25.6% of the vote in Orange County so far.

There are approximately ~8,500 votes left to count in CA-48.

By my calculations, Rouda would need to win 91% of the remaining ballots to win.

Did rouda do something that pissed off voters in this district?

Probably a combination of overall downballot shift to Republicans in OC and candidate quality. Rohrabacher was probably one of the weakest incumbents in 2018 and Steel was probably one of the strongest challengers in 2020. She was running ahead of Trump by 3-4 points from what I saw but OC voters in general seem to be splitting their tickets quite a bit, Biden for president and Republican downballot.

[Tekken_Guy]

Rouda only won last time because of how hated Rohrabacher was. Without him, it reverted to its GOP form.

[Roll Roons]

There are 33k votes left in OC. CA-48 has cast 25.6% of the vote in Orange County so far.

There are approximately ~8,500 votes left to count in CA-48.

By my calculations, Rouda would need to win 91% of the remaining ballots to win.

Did rouda do something that pissed off voters in this district?

Nothing in particular. It's the most Republican district in the OC, and Rouda really only won because Rohrabacher's Russia ties made him so toxic. Republicans running an Asian-American (in a district with a large Asian-American population - I smell blood here...) who was a popular local elected official, combined with their general downballot overperformance, gave Steel the win.

[lfromnj]

non white republicans make white college moderates feel less guilty about voting for the racist party.

See Kent county Michigan with James and Trump

[Tekken_Guy]

non white republicans make white college moderates feel less guilty about voting for the racist party.

See Kent county Michigan with James and Trump

Same with women and “the sexist party”?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

For me, I'm surprised yet not surprised.

On one hand, I felt Rouda was specifically favored in 2018 due to anti-Rohrabacher sentiment.

On the other hand, the OC Board of Supervisors & specifically Steel have become symbols of the anti-mask movement in California. Sad to see her being rewarded for her efforts

[Tekken_Guy]

If you were to tell me Rouda lost but McAdams is likely to hold on, I would have laughed at you.

[jimrtex]

It's looking like 221D-214R.

What if there is a centrist challenger to Pelosi, who all Republicans support?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Before this year, there hadn't been a D->R flip in California since 1998.

[Vespucci]

It's looking like 221D-214R.

What if there is a centrist challenger to Pelosi, who all Republicans support?

There's no Democrat centrist enough to get the whole GOP onboard as speaker. Primary challengers could endlessly attack opponents for voting for a Democrat to control the House.

[NewYorkExpress]

It's looking like 221D-214R.

What if there is a centrist challenger to Pelosi, who all Republicans support?

There's no Democrat centrist enough to get the whole GOP onboard as speaker. Primary challengers could endlessly attack opponents for voting for a Democrat to control the House.

There isn't, but enough Democrats don't vote for Pelosi anyways, doesn't Kevin McCarthy still become Speaker without having the majority of the House vote for him?

[GALeftist]

It's looking like 221D-214R.

What if there is a centrist challenger to Pelosi, who all Republicans support?

There's no Democrat centrist enough to get the whole GOP onboard as speaker. Primary challengers could endlessly attack opponents for voting for a Democrat to control the House.

There isn't, but enough Democrats don't vote for Pelosi anyways, doesn't Kevin McCarthy still become Speaker without having the majority of the House vote for him?

The issue with that is that a lot of the people likeliest to not vote for Pelosi just lost reelection.

[Mike Thick]

This is the OC swing seat with the most Vietnamese voters. Was still more Republican than the country in 2016, and voted for almost all statewide Rs in 2018. Very different story than some of the other ones we flipped.

Vietnamese swinging hard right + having an opponent who actually campaigned probably doomed him

[lfromnj]

Ca48th is the whitest seat. The Vietnamese got shafted with the commision tbh.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This one hurts, not gonna lie. Especially after all the door knocking I put into it in 2018. That said, I feel pretty good about where it's headed after redistricting.

#Rouda2022

[SevenEleven]

This one hurts, not gonna lie. Especially after all the door knocking I put into it in 2018. That said, I feel pretty good about where it's headed after redistricting.

#Rouda2022

Looks like this is the seat getting chopped now. Huntington Beach+Long Beach incoming.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325308620603453442

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gavin Newsom is gonna eliminate was an R district and have a blue leaning map in 2022, the gains the Rs made in Cali will be tempo once D's go back to the voting booths in 2022, when we vote for Newsom again and replacement for Harris and a Democratic majority make over in the House.

The losses that D's had were in the Suburbs not in the urban communities like Anaheim, San Jose, Sacramento and San Diego

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325308620603453442

What's the point of doing that? The district wont't even exist in its current form.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's looking like 221D-214R.

What if there is a centrist challenger to Pelosi, who all Republicans support?

It will be more something like 223/212 (if IA-2 flip) or 224/211

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's looking like 221D-214R.

What if there is a centrist challenger to Pelosi, who all Republicans support?

It will be more something like 223/212 (if IA-2 flip) or 224/211

A pretty narrow majority. The Republican majority from 1999-2002 was similar, and before that you have to go back to 1954 to find such a narrow majority.