Harley Rouda (D) has lost re-election in CA48

[Mike Thick]

Slightly off-topic, but: if Porter gets a better challenger in an bad year, she's in trouble. Desperately needs to be shored up in redistricting, and with how things are going I'm not sure that's likely or even possible

[President Johnson]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

You really think that D's are upset about this race, they will redraw a D favored map  in IL, NY, CA and PA and NM that info the gains the Rs made in 2020 in those seats, Rodney Davis, Oberweis, Herrell and Fitzpatrick will all be gone after 2022

At the same time GA, FL and TX are going to have more Rs.

The net average isn't gonna be that big Rs are gonna net 2/3 seats from redistricting, D's have a slight cushion in the raw vote between their majority and the R minority that is there to substain some losses in Redistricting

[ElectionsGuy]

Looks like Republicans came back and did better in the OC area in ways they didn't in 2018. It was the most Republican seat in the OC area. Now it's on to see if Kim can unseat Gisneros and if Garcia can hold his seat. Also looks like Valadao has a good shot. Porter and Levin also won with less than 55% each.

It looks like Democrats relatively underperformed in California this election - and that of course is mostly due to Hispanics. However OC is disproportionately Asian and not as much Hispanic so it's still a pretty interesting result.

[lfromnj]

Looks like Republicans came back and did better in the OC area in ways they didn't in 2018. It was the most Republican seat in the OC area. Now it's on to see if Kim can unseat Gisneros and if Garcia can hold his seat. Also looks like Valadao has a good shot. Porter and Levin also won with less than 55% each.

It looks like Democrats relatively underperformed in California this election - and that of course is mostly due to Hispanics. However OC is disproportionately Asian and not as much Hispanic so it's still a pretty interesting result.

The Vietnamese swung hard to Trump.

[Pollster]

More evidence that the 2018 wave accelerated trends towards Democrats in some places that wouldn’t be quite ready in a neutral year (and decelerated trends away from them).

I consider increased racial/gender diversity in political parties a good thing - partisan polarization along these types of lines preserve oppression and impede actual progress. That being said, the long-term trends still look quite ugly here for the GOP.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I like Rouda, but not as much as CA trending GOP.

[Coastal Elitist]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

You really think that D's are upset about this race, they will redraw a D favored map  in IL, NY, CA and PA and NM that info the gains the Rs made in 2020 in those seats, Rodney Davis, Oberweis, Herrell and Fitzpatrick will all be gone after 2022

At the same time GA, FL and TX are going to have more Rs.

The net average isn't gonna be that big Rs are gonna net 2/3 seats from redistricting, D's have a slight cushion in the raw vote between their majority and the R minority that is there to substain some losses in Redistricting

California has an independent redistricting commission. The legislature and Gavin Newsom have no control over it.

[lfromnj]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

You really think that D's are upset about this race, they will redraw a D favored map  in IL, NY, CA and PA and NM that info the gains the Rs made in 2020 in those seats, Rodney Davis, Oberweis, Herrell and Fitzpatrick will all be gone after 2022

At the same time GA, FL and TX are going to have more Rs.

The net average isn't gonna be that big Rs are gonna net 2/3 seats from redistricting, D's have a slight cushion in the raw vote between their majority and the R minority that is there to substain some losses in Redistricting

California has an independent redistricting commission. The legislature and Gavin Newsom have no control over it.

Newsom appointed the auditors who chose the woke applicants though . The legislature got like 10 strikes each.

[Frenchrepublican]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

You really think that D's are upset about this race, they will redraw a D favored map  in IL, NY, CA and PA and NM that info the gains the Rs made in 2020 in those seats, Rodney Davis, Oberweis, Herrell and Fitzpatrick will all be gone after 2022

At the same time GA, FL and TX are going to have more Rs.

The net average isn't gonna be that big Rs are gonna net 2/3 seats from redistricting, D's have a slight cushion in the raw vote between their majority and the R minority that is there to substain some losses in Redistricting

California has an independent redistricting commission. The legislature and Gavin Newsom have no control over it.

Newsom appointed the auditors who chose the woke applicants though . The legislature got like 10 strikes each.

How many democratic leaning seats can the commission draw without jeopardising any democratic incumbents ?

[Coastal Elitist]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

You really think that D's are upset about this race, they will redraw a D favored map  in IL, NY, CA and PA and NM that info the gains the Rs made in 2020 in those seats, Rodney Davis, Oberweis, Herrell and Fitzpatrick will all be gone after 2022

At the same time GA, FL and TX are going to have more Rs.

The net average isn't gonna be that big Rs are gonna net 2/3 seats from redistricting, D's have a slight cushion in the raw vote between their majority and the R minority that is there to substain some losses in Redistricting

California has an independent redistricting commission. The legislature and Gavin Newsom have no control over it.

Newsom appointed the auditors who chose the woke applicants though . The legislature got like 10 strikes each.

I didn't phrase that right I meant to say the legislature doesn't get to draw the lines which Olawakandi seemed to imply.

[lfromnj]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

You really think that D's are upset about this race, they will redraw a D favored map  in IL, NY, CA and PA and NM that info the gains the Rs made in 2020 in those seats, Rodney Davis, Oberweis, Herrell and Fitzpatrick will all be gone after 2022

At the same time GA, FL and TX are going to have more Rs.

The net average isn't gonna be that big Rs are gonna net 2/3 seats from redistricting, D's have a slight cushion in the raw vote between their majority and the R minority that is there to substain some losses in Redistricting

California has an independent redistricting commission. The legislature and Gavin Newsom have no control over it.

Newsom appointed the auditors who chose the woke applicants though . The legislature got like 10 strikes each.

How many democratic leaning seats can the commission draw without jeopardising any democratic incumbents ?

CA 50/CA 42 seem like a good choice first, they could prob take out Michelle Steel, They might even try playing around with CA4.

[Frenchrepublican]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

You really think that D's are upset about this race, they will redraw a D favored map  in IL, NY, CA and PA and NM that info the gains the Rs made in 2020 in those seats, Rodney Davis, Oberweis, Herrell and Fitzpatrick will all be gone after 2022

At the same time GA, FL and TX are going to have more Rs.

The net average isn't gonna be that big Rs are gonna net 2/3 seats from redistricting, D's have a slight cushion in the raw vote between their majority and the R minority that is there to substain some losses in Redistricting

California has an independent redistricting commission. The legislature and Gavin Newsom have no control over it.

Newsom appointed the auditors who chose the woke applicants though . The legislature got like 10 strikes each.

How many democratic leaning seats can the commission draw without jeopardising any democratic incumbents ?

CA 50/CA 42 seem like a good choice first, they could prob take out Michelle Steel, They might even try playing around with CA4.

You don't think that trying to give SoCal an all democratic congressional delegation wouldn't turn into a dummymander ?

[lfromnj]

How sad! He was one of my favorites. Generally, downballot races are disappointing for Democrats. Spanberger was certainly right with her analysis, although high turnout among Republicans also played a role.

You really think that D's are upset about this race, they will redraw a D favored map  in IL, NY, CA and PA and NM that info the gains the Rs made in 2020 in those seats, Rodney Davis, Oberweis, Herrell and Fitzpatrick will all be gone after 2022

At the same time GA, FL and TX are going to have more Rs.

The net average isn't gonna be that big Rs are gonna net 2/3 seats from redistricting, D's have a slight cushion in the raw vote between their majority and the R minority that is there to substain some losses in Redistricting

California has an independent redistricting commission. The legislature and Gavin Newsom have no control over it.

Newsom appointed the auditors who chose the woke applicants though . The legislature got like 10 strikes each.

How many democratic leaning seats can the commission draw without jeopardising any democratic incumbents ?

CA 50/CA 42 seem like a good choice first, they could prob take out Michelle Steel, They might even try playing around with CA4.

You don't think that trying to give SoCal an all democratic congressional delegation wouldn't turn into a dummymander ?

Not all
Ca 50 can be taken out with white libs from San Diego who are high turnout and reliable.

[H. Ross Peron]

Slightly off-topic, but: if Porter gets a better challenger in an bad year, she's in trouble. Desperately needs to be shored up in redistricting, and with how things are going I'm not sure that's likely or even possible

Porter's district is vulnerable but not as much as one might think since its anchored by Irvine which is quite liberal and white majority suburbs in her South County district trended Dem this year.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325885712978350082

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Wasserman playing with fire by referring to the Huntington Beach district as "LA suburbs"