Oregon 2020 GE PRES Megathread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

There are literally no Trump precincts in the suburban PNW. You love to see it.

[Kamala's side hoe]

There are literally no Trump precincts in the suburban PNW. You love to see it.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but I can clearly see some (non-Atlas) red on Skye's map just outside the southernmost part of the Portland-Gresham border, and in what I assume is Happy Valley in Clackamas County. No comment on the suburban-exurban transition area in Clark County, although there's definitely some specks of red in unincorporated Vancouver and in Camas.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

There are literally no Trump precincts in the suburban PNW. You love to see it.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but I can clearly see some (non-Atlas) red on Skye's map just outside the southernmost part of the Portland-Gresham border, and in what I assume is Happy Valley in Clackamas County. No comment on the suburban-exurban transition area in Clark County, although there's definitely some specks of red in unincorporated Vancouver and in Camas.

I think that area is more exurban out towards Damascus. It's borderline, I guess.

[NOVA Green]

Awesome work Skye!!!

I have a few questions about the election results from Clackamas County Precinct 006 in the PDF Conversion File...

It appears to match Precinct 006 (Oregon City) which voted:

2016:

HRC:      1,010    (40.7%)        (+5.7% Trump)
Trump:   1,151    (46.4%)
Misc:         318    (12.8%)   
Total:     2,479

2020: 

Biden:    2,374    (47.8%)        (+1.4% Trump)
Trump:   2,442    (49.2%)
Misc:         149    (3.0%)   
Total:     4,965

Precinct 006 also appears to match Oregon City Municipal Precinct Numbers:

https://www.orcity.org/sites/default/files/fileattachments/city_recorder/page/11825/2020-11-23_certified_election_results_from_clackamas_county.pdf

So it gets a bit more confusing...

We have THIS from ClackCo:

https://www.co.washington.or.us/AssessmentTaxation/Elections/ElectionsArchive/upload/Ballots-Cast-per-Contest-with-Precincts.pdf

Precinct numerical results do not appear to match other precinct numerical results...

According to the Clackamas County Elections Office, precinct 006 is located in Oregon City.

https://www.clackamas.us/elections/precincts.html

https://ccgis-mapservice.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=95b7a440c7ec46159e5e67d479ed9c1b

So, I am assuming that your Shapefiles are correct, and also that Trump won a precinct in Oregon City?

I am suspicious about the '16 > '20 results for OC in terms of the dramatic increase in Total Votes (TVs), for this precinct, and without delving into the muck and the mid and mire, either there must have been a new property development within the boundaries or there was precinct consolidation.

[Skye]

Awesome work Skye!!!

I have a few questions about the election results from Clackamas County Precinct 006 in the PDF Conversion File...

It appears to match Precinct 006 (Oregon City) which voted:

2016:

HRC:      1,010    (40.7%)        (+5.7% Trump)
Trump:   1,151    (46.4%)
Misc:         318    (12.8%)   
Total:     2,479

2020: 

Biden:    2,374    (47.8%)        (+1.4% Trump)
Trump:   2,442    (49.2%)
Misc:         149    (3.0%)   
Total:     4,965

Precinct 006 also appears to match Oregon City Municipal Precinct Numbers:

https://www.orcity.org/sites/default/files/fileattachments/city_recorder/page/11825/2020-11-23_certified_election_results_from_clackamas_county.pdf

So it gets a bit more confusing...

We have THIS from ClackCo:

https://www.co.washington.or.us/AssessmentTaxation/Elections/ElectionsArchive/upload/Ballots-Cast-per-Contest-with-Precincts.pdf

Precinct numerical results do not appear to match other precinct numerical results...

According to the Clackamas County Elections Office, precinct 006 is located in Oregon City.

https://www.clackamas.us/elections/precincts.html

https://ccgis-mapservice.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=95b7a440c7ec46159e5e67d479ed9c1b

So, I am assuming that your Shapefiles are correct, and also that Trump won a precinct in Oregon City?

I am suspicious about the '16 > '20 results for OC in terms of the dramatic increase in Total Votes (TVs), for this precinct, and without delving into the muck and the mid and mire, either there must have been a new property development within the boundaries or there was precinct consolidation.

Thank you!

With regards to that precinct, I overlapped the new shapefile with the 2016 one, here's how they look:



The one with the red outline is the 2016 006, while the one with the red filling but no outline is the new one. So as you can see, the precinct grew in size considerably.

However, I don't get this:

We have THIS from ClackCo:

https://www.co.washington.or.us/AssessmentTaxation/Elections/ElectionsArchive/upload/Ballots-Cast-per-Contest-with-Precincts.pdf

That's the Washington County precinct results, it's not from Clackamas.

[NOVA Green]

Awesome work Skye!!!

I have a few questions about the election results from Clackamas County Precinct 006 in the PDF Conversion File...

It appears to match Precinct 006 (Oregon City) which voted:

2016:

HRC:      1,010    (40.7%)        (+5.7% Trump)
Trump:   1,151    (46.4%)
Misc:         318    (12.8%)   
Total:     2,479

2020: 

Biden:    2,374    (47.8%)        (+1.4% Trump)
Trump:   2,442    (49.2%)
Misc:         149    (3.0%)   
Total:     4,965

Precinct 006 also appears to match Oregon City Municipal Precinct Numbers:

https://www.orcity.org/sites/default/files/fileattachments/city_recorder/page/11825/2020-11-23_certified_election_results_from_clackamas_county.pdf

So it gets a bit more confusing...

We have THIS from ClackCo:

https://www.co.washington.or.us/AssessmentTaxation/Elections/ElectionsArchive/upload/Ballots-Cast-per-Contest-with-Precincts.pdf

Precinct numerical results do not appear to match other precinct numerical results...

According to the Clackamas County Elections Office, precinct 006 is located in Oregon City.

https://www.clackamas.us/elections/precincts.html

https://ccgis-mapservice.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=95b7a440c7ec46159e5e67d479ed9c1b

So, I am assuming that your Shapefiles are correct, and also that Trump won a precinct in Oregon City?

I am suspicious about the '16 > '20 results for OC in terms of the dramatic increase in Total Votes (TVs), for this precinct, and without delving into the muck and the mid and mire, either there must have been a new property development within the boundaries or there was precinct consolidation.

Thank you!

With regards to that precinct, I overlapped the new shapefile with the 2016 one, here's how they look:



The one with the red outline is the 2016 006, while the one with the red filling but no outline is the new one. So as you can see, the precinct grew in size considerably.

However, I don't get this:

We have THIS from ClackCo:

https://www.co.washington.or.us/AssessmentTaxation/Elections/ElectionsArchive/upload/Ballots-Cast-per-Contest-with-Precincts.pdf

That's the Washington County precinct results, it's not from Clackamas.

Oops... meant to delete that (Copy & Paste error).

So it appears that Trump did in fact win a precinct within "Metro Portland Proper", in fact in Oregon City, which had some of the largest Obama > Trump Swings between '12 and '16?

My intent was not to question your results, but rather we had multiple posters commenting about how Trump lost every major precinct within "Metro Portland Proper" and the Oregon City Numbers indicated otherwise (Despite that small sliver of a precinct on the South Side of the City invisible to most)...

Again excellent work here, and my flags went up when looking at precinct 006 TVs from '16 > '20, so much appreciated on your 2016 > 2020 Shapefile compare & contrasts!!!

Definitely worthy of investigating for anyone looking at Oregon City precinct boundary changes and demographics, since municipal precinct boundary lines can and will change (Although much rarer in OR between redistricting than in many other States).

[mileslunn]

Here is Lane County

Eugene: Biden 73.5% - Trump 23%
Springfield: Biden 55.2% - Trump 40.9%
Cobourg: Biden 54.98% - Trump 42.37%
Cottage Grove: Trump 51.17% - Biden 44.96%
Creswell: Trump 53.49% - Biden 42.62%
Dunes City: Trump 53.47% - Biden 44.06%
Florence: Biden 51.28% - Trump 46.42%
Junction City: Trump 56.82% - Biden 39.03%
Lowell: Trump 56.4% - Biden 40.2% (note this extends beyond city limits so precinct including it)
Oakridge: Trump 52.23% - Biden 44.04%
Veneta: Trump 53.57% - Biden 42.56%
Westfir: Trump 53.58% - Biden 43.61%

Of unincorporated sections, Trump won most but coastal one narrowly went for Biden, while Biden dominated those just outside Eugene (probably a lot commute into city so spillover of liberal culture and suburban like in nature rather than rural).  Florence is a popular tourist place on coast while Cobourg is close enough more like a bedroom community of Eugene.

[mileslunn]

Here is Jackson County

Ashland:  Biden 85.2% - Trump 12.2%
Butte Falls: Trump 72.69% - Biden 25.17%
Central Point: Trump 62.8% - Biden 34.2%
Eagle Point: Trump 63.95% - Biden 32.63%
Gold Hill: Trump 63.95% - Biden 32.63%
Jacksonville: Biden 56% - Trump 41.45%
Medford: Trump 50.3% - Biden 46.3%
Phoenix: Biden 54.64% - Trump 42.15%
Rogue River: Trump 60.18% - Biden 36.38%
Shady Cove: Trump 65.67% - Biden 31.81%
Talent: Biden 71.53% - Trump 24.86%

Interesting how Biden won all the bedroom communities of Medford but lost city itself.  Ashland off course has long been an uber-liberal community.

[NOVA Green]

Thanks to NOVA Green, who provided me with the Washington County precinct results (which I missed for some reason). I was able to make a map of the Portland Area.



So the result for the area was Biden 65.1 - Trump 31.8.

I didn't include other counties that are included in the US Census Bureau's definition for the Portland Metropolitan Area since the urban area doesn't extend to them.

Hi Skye,

Again lovely work here!

I understand the logic of excluding Columbia and Yamhill Counties from the Shapefile Map project, considering the vast majority of the populations in both of those Counties would not be considered "Metro Portland" by any stretch of the imagination.  (Bolded quote above).

Still one Municipality stands out in those two counties (Although arguably Scappoose is also noteworthy as an Obama>Trump>Biden City and close to commuting range):

Newberg, Oregon (Exurban PDX)

It appears to have voted Democratic for the first time in forever for US-PRES since possibly 1964:

I even ran the 1992 Precinct numbers for Newburg and it was 34.5% Clinton, 41.3% Bush, 23.8% Perot City. (So unless it flipped in '96 or Carter ran especially strong in '76 here, or somehow George Wallace siphoned off enough votes for a Humphrey win....). I don't have the '88 precinct results at my fingertips (Only a paper copy from my time in the Oregon Archives, but don't recall Newberg being Dukakis Country from my "Middle Aged Man Memory").

2020: 13.1k TV   (45.9% R-   49.4% D)    +3.5% D     (+8.4% D Swing '16 > '20)
2016: 10.7k TV   (44.8% R-   39.9% D)    +4.9% R     (+4.9% D Swing '12 > '16)
2012:  9.2k TV    (53.0% R-   43.2% D)    +9.8% R     (+4.9% R Swing '08 > '12)
2008:  9.1k TV    (50.6% R-   45.7% D)    +4.9% R

[NOVA Green]

Here is Lane County

Eugene: Biden 73.5% - Trump 23%
Springfield: Biden 55.2% - Trump 40.9%
Cobourg: Biden 54.98% - Trump 42.37%
Cottage Grove: Trump 51.17% - Biden 44.96%
Creswell: Trump 53.49% - Biden 42.62%
Dunes City: Trump 53.47% - Biden 44.06%
Florence: Biden 51.28% - Trump 46.42%
Junction City: Trump 56.82% - Biden 39.03%
Lowell: Trump 56.4% - Biden 40.2% (note this extends beyond city limits so precinct including it)
Oakridge: Trump 52.23% - Biden 44.04%
Veneta: Trump 53.57% - Biden 42.56%
Westfir: Trump 53.58% - Biden 43.61%

Of unincorporated sections, Trump won most but coastal one narrowly went for Biden, while Biden dominated those just outside Eugene (probably a lot commute into city so spillover of liberal culture and suburban like in nature rather than rural).  Florence is a popular tourist place on coast while Cobourg is close enough more like a bedroom community of Eugene.

PJ already took a peak at some of these a few weeks back:

I wanted to contribute some of my findings based on combing over Lane County precinct results:

There's a couple of Trump-Biden precincts here.
- Florence and Coburg are both Trump-Biden municipalities,
- Biden flipped a precinct in East Springfield (although the Thurston neighborhood remained just out of reach).
- Two rural precincts, one in the Triangle Lake area and the other in the Lorane area, both flipped. My general impression is that there are a fair number of hippies in the hills around Eugene that explain this.

Some other Obama-Trump towns, like Mapleton and Oakridge, stayed with Trump, although the margins were still competitive. For how rugged and mountainous it is, rural Lane County is not that conservative. Trump did not exceed 60% anywhere except for rural areas around Junction City and Cottage Grove. I was somewhat surprised by Creswell, a pretty conservative small town that went from 53-35 Trump to 53-43 Trump.

In Eugene proper, Biden is generally matching or exceeding Obama's numbers. Third party voters overwhelmingly broke for Biden, and this is a city where third party voting was particularly high in 2016. There is a small drop in the student vote due to COVID, but is is pretty insignificant considering that the UO-adjacent neighborhoods continues to march to left. My neighborhood gave Biden 89.7% for instance (compared to 82% for Clinton). Springfield is similarly swinging leftward: the downtown precinct went from 58% Clinton to 68% Biden.

Meanwhile here is a table I threw together for 2016 > 2020 GE PRES by Municipality:

[NOVA Green]

So--- had a bit of time on my hands and wanted to take a break for a few on other activities.

MB had sent me a PM a few days back asking if I had precinct results for a few counties which he was missing precinct results for (Which I did not), as part of a project he is working on to create a 2020 GE PRES OR Precinct Map !!!!

Awesome stuff going on all around on this thread, now that we are getting close to a relatively small number of counties missing precinct level data....

So, I was able to locate some precinct level results from Umatilla County from an "unofficial source", which is definitely worthy of at least throwing out top-line numbers for Umatilla County by the Largest Cities.

Here are the 2020 GE PRES numbers and 2016 GE PRES Swings....



Here are the 2016 GE PRES numbers:



Here are the Total Vote GE-PRES Numbers between 2016 and 2020, to account for the impacts of Automatic Voter Registration (AVR), Vote by Mail (VBM), plus generally a much higher interest and Turnout (TO) numbers nationally and statewide:



What to make of all this mess?

I did a series of posts on my Oregon 2016 GE PRES thread covering Umatilla County.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5635818#msg5635818

1.) Despite the relatively large Latino-American Population within many of the larger Cities of Umatilla County (Milton-Freewater stands out as 61% Latino), Hermiston clocking in at 38% Latino, with Pendleton lagging at only 19% Latino (Which might possibly include inmates in the Eastern Oregon Correctional Facility)...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Oregon_Correctional_Institution

2.) The swings in Hermiston (Now the largest City in Umatilla County), combined with '16> '20 increase in RV, likely driven by AVR, appears to suggest a significant surge in Latino Voters.

3.) Milton-Freewater has experienced dramatic explosions of COVID-19 since the beginning of the Pandemic, but "who gives an eff about Migrant contract workers in a Potato Processing Factory town".

I do....

4.) Pendleton is interesting, since although it is only 19% Latino, it actually swung pretty decently DEM for an Anglo County, where many of the jobs are directly associated with work at the Prison...

5.) No real evidence of Latinos in Umatilla County swinging Trump, although granted it could be Anglos swinging more heavily Biden and Latinos swinging Trump for off-sets...

[mileslunn]

Here is Benton County by municipality

Corvallis: Biden 78.7% - Trump 17.2%
Philomath: Biden 59.85% - Trump 35.08%
Albany (Benton county portion only): Biden 51.73% - Trump 44.53%
Adair Village: Biden 56.51% - Trump 37.99%
Monroe: Trump 56.21% - Biden 41.81%

[mileslunn]

Deschutes County:

Bend: Biden 63.7% - Trump 33.5%
Redmond: Trump 57% - Biden 39.6%
La Pine: Trump 62.99% - Biden 33.65%
Sisters: Biden 55.08% - Trump 42.44%

Bend main reason Biden won Deschutes County which is the first time since 1992 the Democrats have won a county East of the Cascades.  Sisters which is fairly touristy also went for Biden, while Trump dominated rest of county.

[mileslunn]

Coos County

Bandon: Biden 50.48% - Trump 47.4%
Coos Bay: Trump 51.11% - Biden 45.23%
Coquille: Trump 62.99% - Biden 34.01%
Lakeside: Trump 64.93% - Biden 32.50% (note precinct overlaps into unincorporated areas)
Myrtle Point: Trump 69.47% - 27.65%
North Bend: Trump 53.68% - 43.53%
Powers: Trump 73.14% - Biden 24.12% (includes unincorporated areas)

Looks like only Bandon voted for Biden.  Is it a more touristy area?  I believe Obama won Coos Bay and North Bend both times, but flipped to Trump in 2016.  Very blue collar so not really surprising.

[NOVA Green]

Coos County

Bandon: Biden 50.48% - Trump 47.4%
Coos Bay: Trump 51.11% - Biden 45.23%
Coquille: Trump 62.99% - Biden 34.01%
Lakeside: Trump 64.93% - Biden 32.50% (note precinct overlaps into unincorporated areas)
Myrtle Point: Trump 69.47% - 27.65%
North Bend: Trump 53.68% - 43.53%
Powers: Trump 73.14% - Biden 24.12% (includes unincorporated areas)

Looks like only Bandon voted for Biden.  Is it a more touristy area?  I believe Obama won Coos Bay and North Bend both times, but flipped to Trump in 2016.  Very blue collar so not really surprising.

I did a bit of work on Coos County following the 2016 GE, although I neglected to go into extensive detail regarding Bandon:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5413788#msg5413788

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5754596#msg5754596

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5756302#msg5756302

Although it has been about 8 years since I was last in Bandon, Coos Bay, or North Bend, it is true that Bandon does have more of a "tourist feel" than any of the other Cities within the County, despite also suffering from many of the same limitations to tourism as other parts of the Oregon Coast, namely being relatively largely removed from the population centers of the Willamette Valley.

Being located by the Pacific Ocean better positions it to attract tourism, than does Coos Bay / North Bend.

The old fishing areas have been converted to a large shopping district with maybe something like (100) small family owned businesses.

Windsurfing is popular on a lake South of Town.

There is a World Class Golf Course outside of Town, as well as some second homes and Time-Shares floating around.

Still, Bandon still has residual elements remaining from when it had a Cheese Factory, Working Timber Mill, and Small Commercial fishing boats used to exist.

Fundamentally, Bandon is still fundamentally a relatively working-class local retiree City with a dominant Oregonian retirement population (Almost 40% of the population is 60+), and in many ways has tended to vote more similarly to other such Oregon Coast retiree areas such as Florence (Slight Democratic hue), rather than either more "up-scale" Coastal Retirement destinations or Coastal communities which still have either working mills or a history of timber related employment (Such as Brookings, Winchester Bay, Reedsport, etc...), which have increasingly diverged politically in recent years.

[mileslunn]

Here is Hood River County

Hood River: Biden 76% - Trump 21%
Cascade Locks: Trump 48.59% - Biden 45.92%

Interestingly enough Cascade Locks was the only precinct to vote for Trump, all others went for Biden.  Hood River most lopsided for Biden, unincorporated more competitive than Hood River but still favored Biden, while Cascade Locks for Trump narrowly

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County Oregon- 2020 GE- 2.0

I got frustrated with the project after I had to go through and manually transcribe 2020 Precinct numbers of Douglas County, so decided to shelve the project for a bit.

Now it's time to roll up my sleeves and get back to work.

Note you may wish to open some of the Charts into a new window to see in greater details.

Douglas County Vote Share by Place- 2020 GE PRES:





Douglas County Vote Share by Place- 2016 GE PRES:



Douglas County Vote Share by Place- 2000 GE PRES:



Several Observations:

1.) You can clearly see that Douglas County still has an overwhelmingly Rural Voting Base, compared to virtually anywhere else in Oregon West of the Cascade Mountain Range.

2.) Even some of the Municipalities in Douglas County, would be more properly considered "Rural" just about anywhere else.

3.) The largest City Roseburg includes only slightly less than 20% of the County Total Vote Share, although granted there are some "rural precincts", which lie not far outside of City Limits, where it is a relatively short drive to the Largest City and amenities such as shopping and medical services.

4.) The Rural Share of the Vote has not declined significantly between 2000 and 2020, which is all the more remarkable, considering the Oregon Land Use Planning Law is deliberately designed to minimize urban sprawl and concentrate population growth within the Cities and their extended Urban Growth Boundaries.

Vote Change by Place between 2016 and 2020:



Several Observations:

1.) Part of the goal here is to see what extent if anything the change in Oregon Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) between the 2016 GE and 2020 GE may have had on distribution of votes by place.

2.) As we can observe, there was roughly a 20% increase in Total Votes for GE President between 2016 and 2020.

3.) It is patently clear that the Oregon model of AVR combined with 100% VBM was tremendously successful in bringing out low-propensity voters via "unsolicited ballots", even in a heavily Republican County with a relatively low rate of population growth compared to many other Counties in Western Oregon.

4.) Even the Rural precincts saw a 17-18% increase in Total Votes between '16 and '20 and accounted for 50% of "new ballots" cast.

[mileslunn]

Here is Multonomah County

Portland: Biden 83.8% - Trump 13.4%
Lake Oswego (Multonomah portion only): Biden 76.56% - Trump 20.53%
Milwaukie (Multonomah portion only): Biden 82.84% - Trump 14.4%
Fairview: Biden 59.35% - Trump 37.29%
Gresham: Biden 56.95% - Trump 39.68%
Maywood Park: Biden 80.2% - Trump 16.07%
Troutdale: Biden 50.86% - Trump 45.66%
Wood Village: Biden 56.99% - Trump 39.16%

Biden won all, but appears ones to south along I5 corridor massively for Biden as well as Maywood Park which is surrounded by Portland.  East end suburbs seem most pro-Trump of Portland suburbs even more so than neighboring counties although Biden still won them.

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County Oregon- 3.0

Roseburg, Oregon- 2000 to 2020 GE PRES- Raw Votes and % Votes:





Several Observations:

1.) The collapse of the Democratic Party as a National Brand in Roseburg was perhaps most visible in 2000 and 2004. Al Gore barely outperformed Bill Clinton in '92 for example, despite the Perot '92 numbers.

2.) Most of this collapse was likely a direct result of the "Timber Wars" of the '90s and early-mid '00s, where Democrats Nationally, as well as Oregon Democrats were heavily blamed for prioritizing the "environment over jobs".

3.) Still it is evident that Obama performed extremely well in Roseburg, banking 45% of the Vote vs McCain's 51% in 2008, at a time where the Great Recession was hitting Douglas County, and Roseburg in particularly hard as a result of the decline in Housing Starts.

4.) Even in 2012, Obama still managed an extremely respectable 41% of the Vote, with Romney having the 2nd lowest performance for a Republican between '00 and '20.

5.) Trump was able to narrowly perform above Romney '12 numbers in 2016, but the key noteworthy item was the dramatic defection of voters to 3rd Party Candidates which appeared to have disproportionately impacted Hillary Clinton within the City.

6.) Still, Joe Biden was not able to even match Obama '12 numbers in Roseburg, while meanwhile Trump was able to perform the best a Republican Presidential Candidate has done since Bush '04.

7.) The 2.5% DEM Swing between '16 and '20, is much lower than I might have expected for a DEM PRES Candidate, considering the 2016 3rd Party Voting Numbers.

8.) The key question is was Obama '08 / '12 the exception, or was Trump '16 / '20 the exception?

    A.) Roseburg is more of a "bread & butter" City, which historically gets much harder hit by
         economic changes, than most other parts of Oregon.

    B.) To what extent did Trump's emphasis on the "Green New Deal" (Not a Biden Policy position),
         hurt him in a Community which has been at the Center of the #TimberUnity rallies and
         convoys, where the claim is that Oregon environmental policies on Carbon Emissions has been
         disproportionally hitting the Timber Industry?

    C.) To what extent was COVID-19 Oregon State "Lockdowns" a factor, within a community, which
          has historically seen "Main Street" businesses shuttered forever, whenever a "Recession" hits,
          while Wall Street keeps getting bailouts?

     D.) Generally the Oregon Lockdowns were not especially popular in many parts of Downstate
          Oregon, where the State Unemployment Agency completely collapsed, and tons of folks were
           waiting Months for their Unemployment Checks which never arrived. OR-GOV Kate Brown
          might have fired the head of the Department in August, but for those on "Relief", and used to
          working hard when work is available, sitting idle at home doesn't totally cut it, when the State
          Gvt did not deliver.

     E.) Add to the mix that in many parts of Oregon, School Districts did not reopen in September.
          What this meant for many two-income Parent households, is that effectively, even after the
          lockdowns are over, you have either the Male or Female Parent (With some obvious exceptions
          of SSM and Same-Sex Domestic Partners with kids), having to chose who is going to stay
          home to take care of the kids, navigate the world of "Zoom Classroom meetings", while
          meanwhile the bills keep stacking up, despite the OR Eviction Moratorium, Power and Phone
          Bills, not having to be paid, etc....

     F.) Black Lives Matter protests and images of Street protests or "riots" in Portland, Eugene, and
         Salem, likely did not resonate particularly well in Roseburg, as they did in many other parts of
         Oregon, where many locals felt like "our cops don't do stuff like what caused the unrest in the
         Cities", plus City, County, and State Law Enforcement jobs in Douglas County, are considered
         almost prize jobs, with total job security, benefits most of us would not expect anymore in the
         Private Sector, and additionally many of these jobs tend to be covered by Former Members of
         the United States Military, in a County which has a much higher % of Vets than most other
         Counties in Oregon.

Maybe I am completely full of crap regarding Roseburg... maybe my comments above are completely out of base in terms of what motivated voters in Roseburg in the 2020 GE-PRES election.

Fair enough--- I can pull up a few precinct maps for '12/'16/'20 (Not many precincts remaining in Roseburg since post 2010 Consolidation).

Note--- I have more questions than answers, especially considering that Biden only gained ~ +400 Votes compared to Obama '08, while meanwhile Trump gained +2.6k Votes compared to McCain '08.

This is clearly a case of "Read 'em and weep" moment for Douglas County Republicans, to use a term which was quite common in my Poker Career.

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/read_%27em_and_weep#:~:text=Interjection,showing%20a%20winning%20poker%20hand.   

[mileslunn]

What is the reason Hood River County is so blue?  Is it tourism?  They do have a large Hispanic population but many counties in Eastern Oregon and Eastern Washington even higher yet still voted for Trump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What is the reason Hood River County is so blue?  Is it tourism?  They do have a large Hispanic population but many counties in Eastern Oregon and Eastern Washington even higher yet still voted for Trump.

Tourism, a lot of more liberal outdoorsy activities like sky kiting and such.

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 3.1

Roseburg, Oregon- US Senate Results 2002 to 2020:






Several Observations:

1.) Generally, it does not appear as if Roseburg Oregon traditionally has voted for Republicans & Democrats in the US-Senate, as they have for US-PRES numbers.

2.) Ron Wyden won Roseburg convincingly in 2004, while meanwhile Bush Jr. was sweeping the City.

3.) Gordon Smith overwhelmingly wins Roseburg in '08, while meanwhile Obama is keeping it within low Middle Digits at the PRES LEVEL.

4.) In 2010, even in a Republican "Wave Year", Wyden loses only narrowly.

5.) In 2014 Jeff Merkley narrowly wins Roseburg with a plurality.

6.) In 2016 Ron Wyden narrowly loses Roseburg, while Trump is curb-stomping HRC.

7.) In 2020 there is a greater alignment between PRES results and down-ballots, but still Merkley significantly out-performed Biden in the City, although still significantly under-performing Obama '08 GE numbers.

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County- Oregon 3.2

Roseburg, Oregon- US House Results 2002 to 2020:

As I had noted in the 2020 OR-CD '04 thread that Peter DeFazio would likely hold CD-04 because of his lopsided numbers in Benton and Lane County, and that although I suspected the CD-04 numbers would be closer to the National numbers in Republican Leaning or Heavily Republicans and precincts, that he would likely over-perform Biden's margins in those places.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=374199.msg7475114#msg7475114

Here is a Chart of the Raw Votes in Roseburg for CD-04 from 2000 to 2020.

Note in 2008 DeFazio ran unopposed, so I did not include those numbers as it would distort the Graphs.



Here is a Chart of the % of Votes, Margins and Swings in Roseburg for CD-04 from 2000 to 2020.



Several Observations:

1.) DeFazio won Roseburg by overwhelming margins in both 2000 and 2002, despite the fact that Bush Jr. was dominating the City in 2000.

2.) We see a significant spike in Total Votes in 2004, which may or may not be partially attributed to the surge in Evangelical Christian and Social Issue voters, which was a key part of Bush's 2004 reelection strategy. DeFazio's '04 numbers remained relatively flat from '02, as well as decline from his '04 numbers, while raw Republican numbers almost doubled.

3.) There is a DeFazio-Feldkamp rematch in '06, but it appears that Democrats turned out, whilst Republicans did not.

4.) Republicans did not field a candidate in '08.

5.) In 2010 we clearly see the "Mid-Term" Swing effect, with total vote numbers basically equivalent to 2006. Were these the same voters who turned out both times, or was it rather a question of "base turnout Midterms?".

6.) In 2012, we observe once again a High GE Turnout level, but with DeFazio winning with his highest % vote margins since 2002.

7.) In 2014 DeFazio is still holding onto a ~ 13% margin, despite a drop in Turnout.

How much of DeFazio's relative success in Roseburg was a side effect of Obama actually performing better than a Democratic PRES Candidate had (Likely since 1988)?

8.) In 2016, we see DeFazio winning the City by +6%, while again Trump is winning the City by +20% points.

9.) In 2018, once again we see DeFazio win Roseburg by comfortable margins

10.) And then we hit 2020.... Massive surge in Voter Turnout, likely connected to the Oregon AVR and VbM program, and DeFazio looses the City of Roseburg by 1,768 votes and by 14.9% points, with a +25.8% R Swing for CD-04!!!

How much of this was the contrasting Republican candidate quality compared to Art Robinson, how much of this was a dramatic surge of low-propensity voters, and how much of this was effectively a realignment between Presidential numbers and CD numbers?

Regardless, it does not appear that dramatic increase in Voter Turnout always benefits Democrats across the board.

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County Oregon- 3.3

So I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the Roseburg Precinct results from 2012 to 2020, to see if any dramatic swings happened by "neighborhood".

Unfortunately, I do not have a 2004 / 2008 precinct map at my fingertips, so those results are neglected not by design, but rather by resourcing.


Roseburg- GE Results 2012 to 2020 Precinct Map



Several Notes:

1.) Most precincts are relatively equal in terms of total voters ( #7, #9, & # 22).

Precinct #18 is only about 77% of the three former precincts.

Precinct # 2 is basically a series of small neighborhoods on the North side of the City, which were likely incorporated only in order to add Municipal Services.

2.) Precinct #22 in South-East Roseburg, which is concentrated around Downtown Roseburg, looks like a somewhat "Ancestral Democratic" neighborhood, with Obama only narrowly losing the precinct in 2012.

I would not be surprised if Obama had won those precincts which were part of the '08 precinct lines, and now included within the 2012 > 2020 precinct.

Needless to say Biden fell well short of Obama 2012 numbers in Downtown & SE Roseburg.

Roseburg- GE Results 2012 to 2020 Precinct Swing Map

Now let's look at the 2012 to 2020 GE PRES Swings by Precinct, to see if that contributes any additional data points:



Several Notes:

1.) The biggest swings between '12 and '20 for President occurred simultaneously in both the most Republican and most Democratic precincts in 2012!

2.) How to explain all of this?

I thought it might be interesting to attempt to control for various variables such as Ethnicity, Income, Education, and Age to see if it might explain the precinct level PRES results from Roseburg.

3.) Race / Ethnicity Census Block Group Map:



     A.)   So basically we see that although Roseburg is an overwhelmingly Anglo City (Even by Oregon
            Standards), there are significant concentrations of non-Anglos in 3/4 of the largest precincts
            (#9, 18, & 22).

     B.) The largest concentrations of Latinos are located in Block Group Tracts in inner SW Roseburg,
          and in Northern Roseburg close to I-5.
   
     C.) The largest concentrations of African-Americans are located in a Block Group Tract slightly
           North of Downtown (SE Roseburg), as well as in an inner part of NW Roseburg.

     D.) The largest concentrations of Asian-Americans are located in a Block Group Tract in NW
           Roseburg.

     E.) "Mixed", which frequently includes Native Americans, as well as many Americans of a variety
          of Mixed Ethnic backgrounds, runs most strongly up the I-5 Corridor Block Group Tracts.

Based upon the limited data available it does not appear that we can really extrapolate too much from this information to explain Roseburg Election voting.

4.) Household Income:

Unfortunately Census Data is only broken down by Tract Maps, but basically it looks like Precincts 9, 18, & 22 are all roughly equivalent around $40k/ Yr MHI, but Precinct # 7 is more like $56k/Yr.

5.) AGE:

Precinct #7 appears to be the "Oldest Precinct" in Roseburg with something like 38% of the population 60+ Years.

Precinct # 22 appears to be the "Youngest Precinct" in Roseburg, with something like 36% of the population aged 18 > 39.

6.) Education:

Precinct #7 appears to be the most educated with something like 47% of the 25+ Population with a Post-Secondary Degree.

Precinct # 22 appears to be the least educated with something like 23% of the 25+ Population with a Post-Secondary Degree.

Several Observations:


1.) Hell--- screw it---- I don't need to steer people towards a jump to conclusion map, but HRC & Biden clearly weren't doing a great job of appealing to persuadable voters in Roseburg, Oregon.

Sometimes you gotta give voters something to vote for and not just something to vote against.

[NOVA Green]

Roseburg Oregon--- 2020 "Drug Related" Ballot Initiatives:

Ballot Measure #109: Allows manufacture, delivery, administration of psilocybin at supervised,
licensed facilities; imposes two-year development period

YES= 5,650    (47.7%)             +4.6% NO
NO=  6,183    (52.3%)

Ballot Measure #110: Provides statewide addiction/recovery services; marijuana taxes partially finance; reclassifies possession/penalties for specified drugs

YES= 5,949   (50.3%)             +0.6% YES
NO=  5,880   (49.7%)

Precinct #22 was the only precinct which voted for Shrooms.

Precinct #7 was the only precinct which voted against decriminalization of small quantities of hard drugs, with a Tax of Legal Weed to Fund Drug Addiction Recovery Programs.

I can always pull up a precinct map upon request, but it's still a bit ironic / interesting to see these numbers compared against the 2020 GE PRES Results.