Oregon 2020 GE PRES Megathread

[NOVA Green]

I decided to create a thread along the lines of my 2016 OR GE PRES Megathread in Order to more meticulously analyze and dissect the results, especially once we start to received detailed precinct information in the next Month or so.

Link below and well worth a read for anybody who has some time on their hands and an inclination to delve into the minute details of some of even the relatively remote parts of Oregon.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5386692#msg5386692

It was brought to my attention about six Months back on AAD that I missed a few small rural counties from my original project, a gap for which I apologize and will attempt to remedy this go around.

For starters, I will just post this and create a few placeholders right afterwards.

Oregon total Eligible Voters surged between 2016 and 2020 as a direct result of Oregon Automatic Voter Registration as well to a lesser extent innate internal population growth (voters coming of age), as well as internal net migration into the State.

This added roughly 380k new voters to the rolls between '16 and '20 and is likely a major factor as to why currently we have somewhere on the order of 300k to 400k more voters (With not all votes yet having been counted) between these two Presidential Elections.

Here are a few Graphs I created a couple weeks back which help visually demonstrate the Statewide Total breakdowns by Political Party

[NOVA Green]

OR 2020 GE PRES Mega-thread Index:

Point here is create a more useful tool for looking up items in what will most likely be a very lengthy and detailed thread (Unless me or my Wife get seriously ill from COVID-19 or other Medical Issues).

1.) OR TOTAL RAW Statewide RV 2016 / 2018 /2020 Topline Numbers:

     A.) OR TOTAL RAW Statewide RV 2016 to 2020 by Party REG

     B.) OR TOTAL RAW Statewide RV 2016 to 2020 by Party REG %

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7750271#msg7750271

2.) OR TOTAL RAW Statewide GE Metrics 2008 to 2020

     A.) OR Total RAW GE Votes and & Turnout Numbers 2008 to 2020 Graph

     B.) OR Total RAW GE Votes for US-PRES 2008 to 2020 Graph

     C.) OR Total RAW GE Vote Changes for US-PRES 2008 to 2020 per Election and Partisan Support
          Graph

    D.) OR Total RAW GE Vote for US-PRES 2008 to 2020 by Support for Party.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7753981#msg7753981

3.) OR Changes in Total Registered Voters from 10/16 to 10/20 Maps

     A.) OR Total Increase in RV Raw Totals between 2016 and 2020 by County Map

     B.) OR Total Increase in RV Totals between 2016 and 2020 as a % of Total '16 Numbers

     C.) OR % of RV by County November 2020 by Partisan Affiliation

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7758327#msg7758327

[NOVA Green]

Oregon County Specific Index:


Douglas County:

    1.) Brief County Profile

         https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7783387#msg7783387

    2.) Douglas County 2000 to 2020 GE PRES Total Raw Votes and % by Party

        https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7783402#msg7783402

        https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7800123#msg7800123
  
    3.) Douglas County 2020 Overview by Race / Ethnicity, Age and Veteran States

       https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7783418#msg7783418

    4.) Douglas County: Economic Profile

     https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7800067#msg7800067

    5.) Douglas County: 2020 GE PRES Vote Share by Place

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7800206#msg7800206

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7854153#msg7854153

   6.) Roseburg: Demographic Profile

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7802167#msg7802167

   7.) Roseburg: GE PRES 2000 to 2020

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7802269#msg7802269

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7854300#msg7854300

   8.) Roseburg: GE SEN 2002 to 2020

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7854628#msg7854628

   9.) Roseburg: GE US House 2000 to 2020

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7855836#msg7855836

  10.) Roseburg: GE PRES- 2012 to 2020 Vote by Precinct

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7856059#msg7856059

  11.) Roseburg: 2020 GE: Ballot Measures #109 & #110

   https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7856094#msg7856094

  12.) Sutherlin- GE PRES, SEN, & House-  2000 to 2020

   https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7857699#msg7857699

  13.) Winston- GE PRES, SEN, & House-  2000 to 2020

   https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7857980#msg7857980

  14.) Reedsport- GE PRES, SEN, & House-  2000 to 2020

  https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7858242#msg7858242

   15.) Myrtle Creek- GE PRES, SEN, & House-  2000 to 2020

  https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7860108#msg7860108

  16.) Canyonville- GE PRES, SEN, & House-  2000 to 2020

    https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7860293#msg7860293

  17.) Rural Douglas County- GE PRES- 2012 to 2020 Precinct Map

   https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7860395#msg7860395

  18.) Rural Douglas County- Precinct #1 (Rural Coast & Mountains)

  https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7861878#msg7861878



   

[NOVA Green]

Index of Contributions from posters for how Cities Voted in 2020 by County:

Concept here is to highlight contributions from multiple posters who broke down 2020 GE PRES Results by Cities within various Counties, which might be a quicker reference point than wading through all of the extensive precinct level breakdowns and historical voting patterns, and demographic summaries, which I will continue to weave into the larger thread.

We had multiple individual contributors who went through reviewed and crunch numbers, and I want to make sure, this higher level data doesn't get lost in the weeds.


Benton County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7853815#msg7853815

Clackamas County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7839126#msg7839126

Clatsop County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7837509#msg7837509

Columbia County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7837509#msg7837509

Coos County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7853869#msg7853869

Deschutes County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7853835#msg7853835

Hood River County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7854131#msg7854131

Jackson County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7847460#msg7847460

Medford:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7796296#msg7796296

Lane County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7798775#msg7798775

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7847395#msg7847395

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7847829#msg7847829

Linn County:

Albany:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7820693#msg7820693

Marion County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7796953#msg7796953

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7837509#msg7837509

Multnomah County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7797014#msg7797014

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7854162#msg7854162


Umatilla County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7852989#msg7852989


Yamhill County:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7780977#msg7780977

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7837509#msg7837509

[NOVA Green]

Index for precinct Maps from Individual Posters:


1.) Skye's Precinct Map of Metro Portland- 2020 GE PRES Election

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411606.msg7845528#msg7845528

[Rand]

I'm looking forward to this. I changed my avatar back to Oregon just for you.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I am seeing great things in Oregon in 2021. Wow!

[NOVA Green]

Oregon- 2008 to 2020 Total Votes and Turnout Numbers

As I previously posted the 2020 OR GE was marked by a record number of ballots cast, likely as a direct results of the dramatic increase into the total voter pool, as a result of the first Presidential Election since Automatic Voter Registration through the State DMV really manifested.

As elsewhere in the United States, there was naturally also a high level of interest in this election, which likely also increased these numbers as a secondary factor.

The 2020 numbers are still preliminary, as these results are not yet final, and likely there are still additional votes remaining to be counted, and I will be going back and updating these at a later date.



1.) Thus far there were more than 350k Total Ballots cast compared to the 2016 GE, and about 480k more than the 2018 Midterms.

2.) The Turnout % number of Registered Voters however does (not yet at least) to have exceeded the record 2008 TO levels, and thus far is still lagging the 2012 GE Turnout numbers.

      A.) This is perhaps not surprising, considering OR is an "opt out" State, meaning that many voters who had DMV transactions simply were registered to vote, regardless of their actual interest in elections, and many may have well moved, changed address, etc and not chosen to update their info with the DMV.

Now let's look at the Total Raw Votes for President by Major Political Party from 2008 to 2020:



1.) Republican raw votes trickled up from '08 to '16, while Democratic Total Raw Vote numbers in 2016 were lower than in 2008, despite a dramatic increase in OR Statewide Total Raw Votes.

2.) The 3rd Party Raw Vote numbers in 2016 appear to have been a major factor.

3.) The 2020 Raw Vote Totals for both DEM and PUB Presidential Candidates, appears to have reached practically record levels.

Now let's look at the Total Raw Vote Shift by PRES for every PRES Election from 2008 through 2012:



1.) There were about 520k more Total Votes in Oregon for US-PRES in the GEs from '08 to '20!

2.) DEMs added 281.2k Votes between '08 and '20 and PUBs added 204.2k Votes during those same elections.

3.) DEMs gain an additional 300k Total Votes between '16 and '20.

    PUBS added an additional 142k Total Votes between '16 and '20.

   3rd Party / Misc Voters lost 143.3k Total Votes between '16 and '20.

Now let's look at the results for GE-PRES by Party as a % of Total Statewide Votes:



1.) Currently Oregon GE PRES numbers in 2020 are roughly tracking Obama 2008 numbers for both the Republican and Democratic PRES nominees.

2.) As I have repeatedly stated on multiple threads, at least in Oregon (and most likely in many other parts of the US), 3rd Party Ballots disproportionately hit HRC compared to Trump.

3.) Oregon is perhaps a bit more unusual in that we are one of the few States which had a dramatic increase of Total New Voters (Mainly as a result of AVR through DMV), which makes it a bit more difficult to compare and contrast statewide total numbers and %, without delving into County and Precinct Level Results.

4.) I will attempt to address the NAV / 3rd Party Element in more detail as I navigate through County and Precinct Level returns over the coming Weeks / Months.

5.) I could attempt (Easily) to create Swing % numbers at a Statewide Level, but with such a huge increase in Total Votes, this is not particularly illustrative nor representative of what is actually going on in Oregon.

I will follow-up with additional posts shortly, but at least wanted to run the topline numbers to provide a bit of perspective, before deviling further into the details.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I greatly anticipate the precinct maps between Measure 109 vs Measure 91

[NOVA Green]

I greatly anticipate the precinct maps between Measure 109 vs Measure 91

Thanks Monstro.

For anybody not aware, I am assuming you are interested in a Compare & Contrast County / Precinct Map between?:

Measure 91 (2014 GE): Legalize Recreational Marijuana

Measure 109 (2020 GE): ALLOWS MANUFACTURE, DELIVERY, ADMINISTRATION OF PSILOCYBIN AT SUPERVISED, LICENSED FACILITIES; IMPOSES TWO-YEAR DEVELOPMENT PERIOD

That could be interesting...

Honestly, #109 was one of the few Statewide Ballot Measures that I didn't know how it would go.

Shrooms used to be decrimalized in Oregon until sometime at the height of Reagan "War on Drugs" in the late '80s.

I figured #110 would pass (narrowly) because Oregonians generally view Drug Addiction as a Mental Health / Medical Crisis and not as a Criminal Issue that punishes the addicts but rather increases the taxes on Marijuana to help provide $$$ for recovery efforts for those who suffer from Drug Addiction from Cocaine, Heroin, and Crystal Meth, where we have seen so much suffering in both our WWC and Wealthier Communities alike.

Pleasantly surprised to see both Initiatives winning by Wide Margins, and although I am not a proponent of Hard Drugs (I will stick to my smokes, Booze, and occasional puffs of the Herb), we are tired of seeing our family, friends, co-workers, neighbors not getting the proper help they need, but additionally those who got popped for minor possession of drugs are considering Felons and Criminals, making it much harder to get a job once you get out of OSP or Pendleton, etc or any of the other correctional facilities in Oregon.

Interestingly enough some counties with the highest % of White Seniors tended to vote a bit more Shroom friendly Statewide.   

[NOVA Green]

OREGON: 2016 to 2020 Increase in Total Raw New Voters by County:

So I thought the first place to look at to contextualize and examine to what extent (if any) the dramatic increase in Total New Voters between '16 and '20 GEs may or may not have played in overall statewide numbers, would be to look at the total increase in Raw Total voters between Oct '16 and Oct '20.

We had 381.6k RV added between the two Presidential Elections and here is how they break down:



1.) Interestingly (and perhaps not necessarily surprisingly) we see dramatic increases of RVs. throughout most parts of Oregon in overwhelmingly Democratic and overwhelmingly Republican Counties alike, as well as all shades in between.

2.) Metro PDX (MultCo, ClackCo, and WashCo) accounted for only 38% of the increase in the "new voter pool", despite having much larger population growths than most parts of the State between '16 and '20 (Central Oregon being a notable exception).

OREGON: 2016 to 2020 % Increase in Total Raw New Voters by County:



1.) This Map reinforces my previous point---

     A.) The Traditional GE PRES DEM strongholds of Multnomah, Lane, Benton, and Washington County significantly underperformed in terms of total % of increase in New Registered Voters between '16 and '20 compared to Statewide % increase in new RVs.

    B.) Additionally we see a significant increase in Total new RVs in the Heavily WWC / Retiree Communities of the Oregon Coast (Which actually surprised me a bit since Seniors typically vote in greater numbers).

This pattern extended all the way from DEM Clatsop and Lincoln Counties to heavily PUB Counties on the Southern OR Coast (Coos and Curry).

   C.) We also observe a significant surge in the most heavily Republican larger Counties in OR West of the Cascades (Linn and Douglas Counties).

   D.) RV numbers surge in some Working-Class Counties with large Latino Populations along the Columbia River Gorge (Morrow and Umatilla) as well as a few places in SE OR (Harney and Malheur), not to mention Klamath County.

E.) Marion County in the Mid-Valley Stands out, which also has a large Latino Population.

F.) Jackson and Josephine Counties stood out in Southern OR for having a lower than average increase in RVs.

G.) Central OR (Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson) are likely primarily understood as part of the insane POP Growth in those Counties between 2015 and 2020.

In order to provide some context, let's briefly look at a Map of Party Registration by County in November 2020, for those who are not at least somewhat familiar with the Broader Political Geography of Oregon:



Next stop will either be looking at the change in RV by Party by County from '16 to '20 in terms of Raw Votes, Margins, and % s

We don't have Final Turnout Numbers by Party Registration for 2020 Yet, so might be difficult to do a compare / contrast.

Might take a peak at the PRES numbers (Since it looks like most of the Votes are in from OR).

I do have at least what looks like my first (unofficial precinct data set), but still it will take a bit of work to pull up some of the PRES Election data from '92 to '20 (Let alone pulling up my 1988 numbers from a bin which has some of my hard copy archives).

[NOVA Green]

Placeholder #5

[NOVA Green]

Placeholder #6

[NOVA Green]

So I used my first placeholder to create an "Index" in order to be able to hyperlink through Atlas to what will likely become an extremely long and detailed thread in order to assist with anybody trying to navigate this project (Much like I did in my 2016 GE Version).

Sure I know most of Atlas doesn't really give an eff about OR, since so much of the Forum is from elsewhere in the Country, and only gets interested in the details when it looks like there might actually be a close election somewhere, from either the DEM or PUB avatars.

We got some awesome OR avatars and Oregonians out of Metro PDX that probably have a better handle on what's going on up there currently than I do on many issues (Despite having some family members living up there currently).

Still, this is my State from the age of a Young Child, and although I have lived all over the Country, and even overseas over some ~ 45 Years of my life, this will always be my home no matter how far I roam...

Plus Oregon's also where I first cut my teeth with precinct maps and data, etc way back as Teenager in the late '80s... so why not share?

Anyways--- just wanted to explain a bit some of my Obsessive Compulsive Disorder when it comes to Oregon for all of y'all who don't get why some random "downstate OR Old Dude" keeps creating massive OR threads on an Internet Forum, who works in a Factory instead of having finished up my Masters and then a PhD and writing papers.

Academia is not cut out for everyone, and as a result of some personal traumatic events about 15 Years back, I chose not to go that route, so instead I spend so much some to help contribute to the scientific body of knowledge as a labor of love and (Free Knowledge)...

Anybody interested in Academia and working on Thesis type stuff, will be more than happy to share.

Ok--- getting a bit sentimental.   Just wanted to introduce the Index for future REF.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Total Raw Vote Numbers have now jumped to 2,411,802 Total Votes... as of 11/10/20 1714 PM PST.   (81.78% RV TO)

+~15k New Votes added.

+8,941 Biden     (61.6% D)
+4,782 Trump    (32.9% R)
+  798 3rd Party ( 5.5%)

+ 14,521 TOTAL

https://results.oregonvotes.gov/Default.aspx

Will need to incorporate these latest numbers before posting County Swing Maps...

[NOVA Green]

1.) Oregon does not appear to have updated any Presidential Election Result numbers in over a week.

2.) Counties are continuing to move forward with their Final canvassing, and in fact in many cases appear to have completed them, looking even at county level election reporting authorities.

3.) Should I move forward with starting to post additional numbers, including potentially starting with some County level data between the 2000 and 2020 GE Federal Elections?

4.) Douglas County will be the first off the ship, since I have been a'Biden my time, and plus they were the first County in Oregon to upload "Final Abstracts".

Just like interviews with many actors, sometimes it is more interesting to play the villain instead of the hero, and often on Atlas / Talk Elections strongly Republican Counties don't get nearly as much attention as maybe they should.   

Here is the current schedule of OR County Reporting status deadlines:



5.) Should I just start moving ahead and wait for every last vote to be certified?

[NOVA Green]

So just for fun.... I've spent a few minutes of time running some Yamhill County numbers...

My prediction of Yamhill County as a 2020 GE PRES Tossup wasn't far off the mark, but I was assuming a 6-8% Biden National PV % win.

So, I'll through out a few teasers for you Oregon Loving Election Data Guru Number Porn Fans...

Largest City:

McMinville

2020:

Biden:  53.6%     (+10.7% Biden)     +5.8% D Swing
Trump: 42.9%

2016:

HRC:    46.5%    (+4.9% HRC)
Trump: 41.6%

2012:

Obama:   51.0%   (+5.5% Obama)
Romney:  45.5%


2nd Largest City:

Newberg:

2020:

Biden:  49.4%     (+3.5% Biden)     +8.4% D Swing
Trump: 45.9%

2016:

HRC:    39.9%    (+4.9% Trump)
Trump: 44.8%

2012:

Obama:   43.2%   (+9.8% Romney)
Romney:  53.0%

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County--- OREGON- Part I:





Previously in my 2017 profile of Douglas County I had posted something like the following in the County Overview, (I will delete the County Wide election numbers over elections from the OP, as these are close behind the wings with updated results and graphs:

"Oregon County Update #16- Douglas County- Population 108k (2015)

The largest county in Oregon West of the Cascades and #5 in the state, is arguably the most Republican County consistently West of the Cascades in recent decades in terms of population as well (We could potentially put Linn County as a contender).

Located squarely at the Northern part of Southern Oregon proper, where the Mountain Range splits from the Cascades on the East to the Coast Range to the West, with the Calapooya Mountains creating a natural geographical barrier, this was an historically remote part of the state.

Originally, the earliest European settlers were Gold Miners that went North from California looking for an "Oregon Gold Rush" that triggered a conflict with the local Rogue Indians that lasted for about ten years, and resulted in the "involuntary relocation" of Natives to reservations located on the foothills of the Central Oregon Coast Range.

Like many historical mining areas in Oregon originally settled by Southerners the county tended to be heavily Democratic for a century, as opposed to "Yankee" areas settled in the Willamette Valley, where much of the original settler population came from New England backgrounds (Look at the names of the cities)....

Douglas County is not only an extremely large county in land area, but also an extremely beautiful county where over 50% consists of publicly managed forest lands (USFS & BLM) combined with a significant amount of privately owned timber lands....

It is an overwhelmingly rural county in any sense of the meaning.

It is still an economy based overwhelmingly on the Timber industry, and an estimated 25-30% of the total labor force is directly tied to the timber industry.

There are still some mills left in Douglas County, but as the old saying went "Douglas County is where the logs are harvested and Lane County is where the logs are milled".

In many ways Douglas County is a relatively new convert to the Republican Party.... A Liberal Democratic from Massachusetts managed to bag 47% of the two-party vote back in '88 when running for President....

It is an overwhelmingly White County (92%- 2010) with an extremely small minority population (5% Latino, 2% Native American.

It is also a relatively old county with a much higher percentage of Seniors than just about anywhere else in Western Oregon, a much higher percentage of Veterans than just about any County in Western Oregon (Coos/Curry excepted with Columbia a close runner-up).

It is a relatively low income county, with a Median Household Income of only $ 39.7k/Yr (2010).

As a forest products dependent county it is heavily dependent and responsive to national economic trends, since as anyone who knows anything about the timber industry (Particularly in logging counties and regions of Oregon) there are HUGE ups and downs with employment....

Here's a link that shows the unemployment rate in Douglas County from 1992-2016....

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ORDOUG5URN

So if we look at the "Mountains and Valleys" on the unemployment rate in the county we see some interesting data:

1/92----- 15.2% Unemployment
2/09----  18.1% Unemployment
9/09----    7.5% Unemployment
4/15----   7.5% Unemployment
5/16---    5.7% Unemployment
11/16---  6.1% Unemployment

So anyways you look at it, and we can slice and dice more detailed numbers between every General Election (Including Midterms) this is an area where almost 1/5 workers were "on the dole" right when Obama came into office....

The unemployment rate was at almost 14% right before the 2010 GE.... 11% right before the 2012 GE, and dipped down to only 8.2% right before the 2014 GE.

IDK if there is a direct correlation, but regardless it doesn't appear that Clinton benefited from the lowest unemployment rates in the county since before 1992....

I will attempt in the next chapter of the story to perhaps expand upon the Historical, demographics, and socio-economic date, prior to expounding upon the 2020 GE History and swings.

[NOVA Green]

All right, so I will hold off for now, but wanted to at least show a graph of the 2000 to 2020 Raw Vote Totals from Douglas County:



Here are the numbers in another chart form as a % of TV by GE PRES Candidate:



These numbers actually look abysmal for Biden, and despite over-performing HRC '16 by a significant % is still only slightly below Gore '00 numbers, and significantly below Kerry '04 numbers.

Meanwhile PRES PUB numbers were at the Nadir in '08, but have continuously increased every single election since!

Just a brief summary, but decided to hold off on the History Lesson for a few brief moments in time.

[NOVA Green]

Douglas County Social Demographics 2020:

1.) Douglas County is one of the "Most Anglo" Counties in Oregon ranking at 30/36 Counties in Oregon with the smallest % of Non-White Residents (11.2%), with Columbia County narrowly nipping on the heals.

The only Counties behind these are a few small pop places in Eastern OR (Union, Baker, Grant, Wallowa, Wheeler).

2.) Douglas County is one of the "Oldest" Counties in Oregon ranking #6 in POP > 80 Yrs (6.0%), with again a few small Counties in Eastern OR (Wheeler, Wallowa, Grant), plus Sherman in Grain Country (Columbia River Gorge), and the lovely Curry County in the SW OR / CA coastline doing better.

3.) Douglas County when it comes to the 71-79 / Yrs number drops down to #11 (10.1% in the age range).

4.) Douglas County when it comes to the 61-70 / Yrs number drops down to #12 (16.2% of the age range).

5.) Cumulatively 32.3% of the Entire Population of Douglas County (Including those under the age of 18) are 60+ / Years old.

Here is a map of the % of Vets by County in Oregon, and again Douglas County Stands out:

[NOVA Green]

Still waiting to add data for Douglas County.

In the interim, I just ran the numbers now that Jackson County, OR has certified, which I shared on another thread, so here you all go...

2020 GE PRES:

Trump:   22,170   (50.3%)       +4.0% R       (+8.1% D Swing 2016 to 2020)
Biden:    20,402   (46.3%)
Misc:       1,466    ( 3.3%)
TOTAL:  44,038                       +20.6% increase from 2020 TV

2016 GE PRES:

Trump:   18,463   (50.6%)       +12.1% R
HRC:      14,045   (38.5%)
Misc:       4,013    (11.0%)
TOTAL:   36,521

For anyone curious here are some numbers for the City going back to '92:

Trump in 2020 appears to have performed worse for a Republican PRES candidate in Medford since 1992!

[mileslunn]

I earlier ran #'s for Clackamas County and looks like Biden won big in the Portland suburbs (Trump got in low 30s and 20s in most of those) but the towns on south and east side as well as rural areas Trump won.  For Lane County, Eugene massively Biden, Springfield despite its closeness, Trump got over 40% but still went Biden.  Trump would have won county if you remove those two cities.  For Jackson County, Medford went for Trump and numbers close to county.  Ashland was what made it close as Biden got close to 80% there.

For curiosity, do you have any numbers of the suburbs in Washington County, what was Bend?  Also Astoria and Salem?  I can help on any if you wish as most it is easy to match precincts.

[NOVA Green]

I earlier ran #'s for Clackamas County and looks like Biden won big in the Portland suburbs (Trump got in low 30s and 20s in most of those) but the towns on south and east side as well as rural areas Trump won.  For Lane County, Eugene massively Biden, Springfield despite its closeness, Trump got over 40% but still went Biden.  Trump would have won county if you remove those two cities.  For Jackson County, Medford went for Trump and numbers close to county.  Ashland was what made it close as Biden got close to 80% there.

For curiosity, do you have any numbers of the suburbs in Washington County, what was Bend?  Also Astoria and Salem?  I can help on any if you wish as most it is easy to match precincts.

Thanks Miles (If I may use a familiar term rather than your full Atlas Name?)

Generally in OR Counties will post results on the Statewide Page with precinct breakdowns, once they are "Semi-Official" or "official".

Counties will frequently post numbers on their own local pages, waiting until certification before uploading to Statewide reporting agencies.

To be more specific, that's part of the reason why I have held off posting OR numbers by place, until I feel that the results are pretty much where they are going to be, especially since I can get the data-sets in Excel formats for the entire State before too long, so basically why waste the time doing manual tabulation from PDFs into my pre-existing spreadsheets going back a few decades of OR elections.

I definitely appreciate your dedication and enthusiasm in pursuing detailed level data, so if you have the time to move forward, here are a few items you might want to consider to more easily crunch precinct numbers:

1.) Haven't seen precinct numbers yet from Clatsop or Deschutes Counties.

2.) Marion County:

Doesn't appear the precincts have changed '16 > '20 GE

Salem- Precincts # 310-376 
Keizer- Precincts # 400-408

Eyeballing it looks like Trump won Keizer narrowly in 2020.   

3.) Polk County:

Salem-  You will want to grab the following precincts which fall within Salem City Limits:

134   West Salem
136   West Salem
140   West Salem
146   West Salem

4.) Washington County:

Looks like there might have been a few precincts added between '16 & '20, so use at your own risk.

My 2016 GE Precinct Coding Numbers include the following:

Beaverton:

PRECINCT
Precinct 323
Precinct 350
Precinct 352
Precinct 354
Precinct 358
Precinct 359
Precinct 361
Precinct 378
Precinct 379
Precinct 380
Precinct 383
Precinct 387
Precinct 388
Precinct 389
Precinct 393
Precinct 395
Precinct 406
Precinct 408
Precinct 416
Precinct 418

Hillsboro:

PRECINCT   CITY
Precinct 307   Hillsboro
Precinct 309   Hillsboro
Precinct 318   Hillsboro
Precinct 325   Hillsboro
Precinct 327   Hillsboro
Precinct 329   Hillsboro
Precinct 332   Hillsboro
Precinct 333   Hillsboro
Precinct 334   Hillsboro
Precinct 335   Hillsboro
Precinct 336   Hillsboro
Precinct 337   Hillsboro
Precinct 343   Hillsboro
Precinct 344   Hillsboro
Precinct 345   Hillsboro
Precinct 374   Hillsboro
Precinct 440   Hillsboro

Tigard:--- I think there might be a ClackCo split, but not my bag yet so you gotta check out the overlaps with other Counties for some of these PDX 'Burbs.

PRECINCT   CITY   UNINC/RURAL
Precinct 400   Tigard   CITY
Precinct 402   Tigard   CITY
Precinct 404   Tigard   CITY
Precinct 405   Tigard   CITY
Precinct 409   Tigard   CITY
Precinct 411   Tigard   CITY
Precinct 427   Tigard   CITY

4.) Tualatin:-- Again check ClackCo since I can't remember off the top of my head.

PRECINCT   CITY   UNINC/RURAL
Precinct 394   Tualatin   CITY
Precinct 420   Tualatin   CITY
Precinct 423   Tualatin   CITY
Precinct 428   Tualatin   CITY
Precinct 433   Tualatin   CITY
Precinct 436   Tualatin   CITY

[mileslunn]

Below is Salem split by county

Marion County:

Salem:

Biden:  38,550
Trump: 25,678
Total:  66,260

Polk County:

Salem:

Biden:  9,154
Trump: 6,977
Total: 16,722

Total:

Biden:  47,704   -     57.5%
Trump:  32,655  -     39.4%
Total: 82,982

So yes Biden won Salem, but seems quite a bit more conservative than either Eugene or Portland.  I would have thought with the civil service there, Democrats would do a bit better, do you know why?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So yes Biden won Salem, but seems quite a bit more conservative than either Eugene or Portland.  I would have thought with the civil service there, Democrats would do a bit better, do you know why?

Eugene is an uberliberal college town and Portland is Portland. Salem going to Biden by 18 points is perfectly respectable for a fairly nondescript, smallish state capital.