NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Ferguson97]

I started watching the debate, and I think I understand why the race is now a dead heat. Bolduc is actually a very effective debater and was very well prepared.

If I had to pick a Senate race that has the most potential to be the biggest upset of the year, it is this one. Bolduc has been excellent in pivoting to the center post primary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ls0Hgqun4

Here’s their final debate from yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imrvCGobADU

Again, if you watch it, it’s not hard to see why the race is a Toss-up. I will say that I’m actually glad Bolduc won the nomination and not Morse (I don’t think he would have been nearly as relentless/on-message in going after her as Bolduc).

She’s also just a very, very poor candidate (and there’s a reason why she’s the only deeply unpopular New England incumbent).

Lol what are you nuts? Bolduc comes across like a MAGA lunatic. Hassan wins by more than 5 points, easy.

[Senator Incitatus]

She’s also just a very, very poor candidate (and there’s a reason why she’s the only deeply unpopular New England incumbent).

As often happens, I agree with everything in your comment but want to point out a tweak: last time I checked, Elizabeth Warren had remarkably mediocre popularity (<57%) for a Massachusetts Dem.

[citizenZ]

Wow Bolduc has pulled ahead on RCP.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Wow Bolduc has pulled ahead on RCP.

They put the UMASS poll in there but it got dropped out because they started collecting data October 15, and waited 9 days after finishing the poll to release it to the public.

[citizenZ]

Wow Bolduc has pulled ahead on RCP.

They put the UMASS poll in there but it got dropped out because they started collecting data October 15, and waited 9 days after finishing the poll to release it to the public.

Noise but still shows a trend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The race has certainly tightened, but relying on RCP, which picks and chooses which polls to include in an opaque but clearly partisan way, is simply not being objective.  538's average, which is much sounder, currently has Hassan +2.9.

[Yoda]

Wow Bolduc has pulled ahead on RCP.

Why on Earth are you pointing out anything that garbage RCP puts out, when they pick and choose which polls to include in order to show the best result for the republican?

[citizenZ]

Wow Bolduc has pulled ahead on RCP.

Why on Earth are you pointing out anything that garbage RCP puts out, when they pick and choose which polls to include in order to show the best result for the republican?

They've been a gold standard website in the political world for decades.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow Bolduc has pulled ahead on RCP.

Why on Earth are you pointing out anything that garbage RCP puts out, when they pick and choose which polls to include in order to show the best result for the republican?

They've been a gold standard website in the political world for decades.

I used to follow them since their founding in 2000 (which is technically decades, I guess, although barely).  Back then they were quite a good political news and polling aggregator.  Over the years they've become much more right-wing and completely lost any veneer of objectivity.  They're no longer a gold standard.  Fool's gold, perhaps.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

RCP is such a republican hack site for having Bolduc down more than 538 during the month of September and early October.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think Hassan could be screwed because Bolduc surged at an inopportune time. If this happened even two weeks ago, I wouldn’t be too worried because he is not a good fit for NH. No idea who had the great idea of directing resources away from NH - he should have been nuked right away without letting up…

[GeorgiaModerate]

RCP is such a republican hack site for having Bolduc down more than 538 during the month of September and early October.

They were a hack site long before this campaign even started.

[Yoda]

Wow Bolduc has pulled ahead on RCP.

Why on Earth are you pointing out anything that garbage RCP puts out, when they pick and choose which polls to include in order to show the best result for the republican?

They've been a gold standard website in the political world for decades.

LMAOOOOOOOOOOO

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hassan still up 3 points on 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/new-hampshire/

[Brother Jonathan]

My general feeling at this point is the race is tightening because the national environment has become fairly good for Republicans recently, but that Hassan still has a narrow edge. Bolduc has certainly managed to be fairly normal in these last few weeks, and so he's been able to ride a general improvement for Republicans to make this race competitive. Probably a two-point race if not closer in the end, maybe something like 2014.

[Calthrina950]

RCP is such a republican hack site for having Bolduc down more than 538 during the month of September and early October.

I've noticed that RCP has come under much criticism from progressives and Democrats over the last few months, who claim that it is heavily biased to the right. It does amaze me the extent to which the left is now denigrating and doubting polls, when they claim that it is the right who is guilty of such things. Any pollsters which don't show "favorable" or "plausible" results for Democratic candidates are now regarded with opprobrium.

[soundchaser]

RCP is such a republican hack site for having Bolduc down more than 538 during the month of September and early October.

I've noticed that RCP has come under much criticism from progressives and Democrats over the last few months, who claim that it is heavily biased to the right. It does amaze me the extent to which the left is now denigrating and doubting polls, when they claim that it is the right who is guilty of such things. Any pollsters which don't show "favorable" or "plausible" results for Democratic candidates are now regarded with opprobrium.

You *know* why this argument is made in bad faith — RCP includes R-sponsored polls but not D-sponsored ones, etc. — but you continue to spout it anyway. Consider why people are upset with you when you continue to put words into their mouths and then argue against strawmen.

[ProgressiveModerate]

RCP is such a republican hack site for having Bolduc down more than 538 during the month of September and early October.

I've noticed that RCP has come under much criticism from progressives and Democrats over the last few months, who claim that it is heavily biased to the right. It does amaze me the extent to which the left is now denigrating and doubting polls, when they claim that it is the right who is guilty of such things. Any pollsters which don't show "favorable" or "plausible" results for Democratic candidates are now regarded with opprobrium.

I think you bring up a lot of good points that push back at certain narratives that come out of this more liberal dominated forum, but the issue with RCP is less about whether their results are right or wrong but just how the polls they choose to include and not include seem arbitrary other than to make the polling averages more R favorable. Maybe their polling averages will end up being more accurate in many races, but they need to have a hardline set of rules rather than just trying to manually adjust the polling average to what they want it to be.

It’s sort of like how Trafalgar may have been accurate in a few midwestern states in 2020 but the numbers seem to be made up and they have done terribly anywhere that’s not the big 3 because they assume this massive R undercount is universal.

Another way to think about it is how someone can get the right answer on a math test, but if there work doesn’t make any sense or is flat out wrong, they’ll only get partial credit.

[Calthrina950]

RCP is such a republican hack site for having Bolduc down more than 538 during the month of September and early October.

I've noticed that RCP has come under much criticism from progressives and Democrats over the last few months, who claim that it is heavily biased to the right. It does amaze me the extent to which the left is now denigrating and doubting polls, when they claim that it is the right who is guilty of such things. Any pollsters which don't show "favorable" or "plausible" results for Democratic candidates are now regarded with opprobrium.

You *know* why this argument is made in bad faith — RCP includes R-sponsored polls but not D-sponsored ones, etc. — but you continue to spout it anyway. Consider why people are upset with you when you continue to put words into their mouths and then argue against strawmen.

I'm not doing that, and people here shouldn't be upset when it is their narrative that dominates this forum.

[Calthrina950]

RCP is such a republican hack site for having Bolduc down more than 538 during the month of September and early October.

I've noticed that RCP has come under much criticism from progressives and Democrats over the last few months, who claim that it is heavily biased to the right. It does amaze me the extent to which the left is now denigrating and doubting polls, when they claim that it is the right who is guilty of such things. Any pollsters which don't show "favorable" or "plausible" results for Democratic candidates are now regarded with opprobrium.

I think you bring up a lot of good points that push back at certain narratives that come out of this more liberal dominated forum, but the issue with RCP is less about whether their results are right or wrong but just how the polls they choose to include and not include seem arbitrary other than to make the polling averages more R favorable. Maybe their polling averages will end up being more accurate in many races, but they need to have a hardline set of rules rather than just trying to manually adjust the polling average to what they want it to be.

It’s sort of like how Trafalgar may have been accurate in a few midwestern states in 2020 but the numbers seem to be made up and they have done terribly anywhere that’s not the big 3 because they assume this massive R undercount is universal.

Another way to think about it is how someone can get the right answer on a math test, but if there work doesn’t make any sense or is flat out wrong, they’ll only get partial credit.

I think this tweet thread by Nate Silver does a fair job of addressing the situation with polling averages:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272

Many here simply don't want to admit that they think the polling averages should be reflecting what they personally believe is true about these races, and think that if they don't, they are automatically suspect.