Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are trying to repeal all the Covid restrictions, DeSajtis said fire Fauci, Biden said in the debates he isnt gonna fire Fauci

If the Rs get control they're not gonna end Covid they're gonna pretend it's not there like  Trump did with his Super spreader rallies

That's why Ds are gaining and it's not time to vote


Just like Obama reminded Cali voters  Elder was gonna repeal Covid restrictions

[pbrower2a]

President Biden does not sugar-coat reality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing has changed ANYWAYS since 2020 we're still at a 304 map and Biden won 50/45 not 63/37

Biden had a temporary Honeymoon period in March 2021, and Afghanistan eroded that bounce, and the South moves right during a D Midterm and the North moved Left during an R Midterms, and the South with exception of GA supported the insurrection. 2010/2014 we LOST BLUE DOGS

WITHOUT VOTING RIGHTS THE H is LIKELY R BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE 4/7 R STS IN CALI THAT CAN ERODES R GAINS

It's been a 304 map since 2016 with KS, KY, AZ, LA Electing D Govs

Newsom won by the Exact margin he won in 2020 and we lost VA after 8 yrs of D rule just like in 2009 after 8 yr D Term

OH/NC are wave insurance but we need to see polls otherwise they Lean R for Senate

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Biden is the comeback kid, like Bill Clinton.

*if you cherrypick polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Biden is the comeback kid, like Bill Clinton.

*if you cherrypick polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

.we still have 336 days til the Election

The Rs haven't cracked the 278 blue wall since 2016  NV Benghazi Hillary and we won 80M votes to Trump 74 and Hillary won 65/62M even against Trump we're the Majority, you act like D's haven't won abd Rs are trying to Fire Fauci and repeal vaccine mandates, we're still gonna have Covid if Rs get into control, you can still get it despite being vaccinated

Fox and MSNBC says Rs are Favs in H the D's only have a 221/213Majority 3 seat and D's are Favs in the S due to ,304 blue Wall WI, OA, CO, NV, AZ and NH  but we don't know how many Rs are gonna lose in Cal, NY and IL, Es van lose up to 6 alone in Cali

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Biden is the comeback kid, like Bill Clinton.

*if you cherrypick polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

.we still have 336 days til the Election

The Rs haven't cracked the 278 blue wall since 2016 and we won 80M votes

Fox and MSNBC says Rs are Favs in H the D's only have a 221/213Majority 3 seat and D's are Favs in the S due to ,304 blue Wall WI, OA, CO, NV, AZ and NH  but we don't know how many Rs are gonna lose in Cal, NY and IL, Es van lose up to 6 alone in Cali

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1470420377750982661

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same polls had Trump Gallup at 42% and we were supposed to win TX right and now the Rs believe them because they benefit them

These same media polls predicted a 413 landslide in 2020

Go to the database for 2020 and see how wrong these same polls were

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Biden is the comeback kid, like Bill Clinton.

*if you cherrypick polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

.we still have 336 days til the Election

The Rs haven't cracked the 278 blue wall since 2016 and we won 80M votes

Fox and MSNBC says Rs are Favs in H the D's only have a 221/213Majority 3 seat and D's are Favs in the S due to ,304 blue Wall WI, OA, CO, NV, AZ and NH  but we don't know how many Rs are gonna lose in Cal, NY and IL, Es van lose up to 6 alone in Cali

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1470420377750982661

Only difference is that Dems won't gain in the senate, despite a favorable map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Biden is the comeback kid, like Bill Clinton.

*if you cherrypick polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

.we still have 336 days til the Election

The Rs haven't cracked the 278 blue wall since 2016 and we won 80M votes

Fox and MSNBC says Rs are Favs in H the D's only have a 221/213Majority 3 seat and D's are Favs in the S due to ,304 blue Wall WI, OA, CO, NV, AZ and NH  but we don't know how many Rs are gonna lose in Cal, NY and IL, Es van lose up to 6 alone in Cali

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1470420377750982661

Only difference is that Dems won't gain in the senate, despite a favorable map.

Fetterman is leading OZ and Johnson is vulnerable

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Echelon insights

Approve; 48% (+3)
Disapprove; 51% (-1)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

[pbrower2a]

Echelon insights

Approve; 48% (+3)
Disapprove; 51% (-1)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

That's going to make a mess of the approval map that I have. I welcome that.

48% approval is enough for re-election.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Good, though the House would still be lost for Democrats in this territory. Keeping the senate would be a real possibility here.

I think most important is controlling inflation now and do a better job in selling accomplishments, especially if/when BBB finally passes.

[THG]

If you average the Reuters 48/48 poll and the recent Rasmussen poll which has him underwater by 16, you have a minus 8 approval.

That being said- Reuters is arguably the most pro-Biden pollster, akin to how Rasmussen or Trafalgar are the most anti-Dem/Biden ones, so do make what you will out of either of those polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Good, though the House would still be lost for Democrats in this territory. Keeping the senate would be a real possibility here.

I think most important is controlling inflation now and do a better job in selling accomplishments, especially if/when BBB finally passes.

The House isn't gone we have to wait for Redistricting in California and we can net up to 6 R seats alone, it's projected 4 Rs are gonna lose but 2 more and 2 Rs are gonna lose in NY and IL that's 8/10 seat gain for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you average the Reuters 48/48 poll and the recent Rasmussen poll which has him underwater by 16, you have a minus 8 approval.

That being said- Reuters is arguably the most pro-Biden pollster, akin to how Rasmussen or Trafalgar are the most anti-Dem/Biden ones, so do make what you will out of either of those polls.

The same media polls that have Biden at 41% said we were gonna win 413 EC votes and we were gonna win TX in 2020 with Gallup had Trump at 42 wasn't true, it's a 304 map WI, PA, MI, CO, VA, NV, NH gets us 278 and AZ and GA whom have Mark Kelly and Warnock gets us to 304 we haven't moved from 2020 Biden won 50/45 and the Rs haven't won the Rust belt since 2016

OH, TX and FL are long shots but Mandel is very weak candidate and OH split it's votes in 2018 for Gov and Senate, it's a 304 nap

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Echelon insights

Approve; 48% (+3)
Disapprove; 51% (-1)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

That's going to make a mess of the approval map that I have. I welcome that.

48% approval is enough for re-election.

Better your map gets messed up than our democracy

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you average the Reuters 48/48 poll and the recent Rasmussen poll which has him underwater by 16, you have a minus 8 approval.

That being said- Reuters is arguably the most pro-Biden pollster, akin to how Rasmussen or Trafalgar are the most anti-Dem/Biden ones, so do make what you will out of either of those polls.

I think -8 is reasonably in the ballpark at present, with the trend being slightly favorable for Biden.  However, I'll pick a nit here:

Based on past performance, Rasmussen has a larger pro-R house effect than Ipsos has a pro-D one, so just averaging those two can still be biased; and using only two polls (ANY two polls) is subject to wild swings due to an outlier by either or both of them -- although it's certainly better than cherry picking single polls on either side.  For a better picture, use the 538 average of all polls that takes into account pollster house effects.  This currently has Biden at -7.4, which is pretty close to your -8, but will be much less vulnerable to perturbation by outliers.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/blankslate2017/status/1470881112205324288

[THG]

If you average the Reuters 48/48 poll and the recent Rasmussen poll which has him underwater by 16, you have a minus 8 approval.

That being said- Reuters is arguably the most pro-Biden pollster, akin to how Rasmussen or Trafalgar are the most anti-Dem/Biden ones, so do make what you will out of either of those polls.

I think -8 is reasonably in the ballpark at present, with the trend being slightly favorable for Biden.  However, I'll pick a nit here:

Based on past performance, Rasmussen has a larger pro-R house effect than Ipsos has a pro-D one, so just averaging those two can still be biased; and using only two polls (ANY two polls) is subject to wild swings due to an outlier by either or both of them -- although it's certainly better than cherry picking single polls on either side.  For a better picture, use the 538 average of all polls that takes into account pollster house effects.  This currently has Biden at -7.4, which is pretty close to your -8, but will be much less vulnerable to perturbation by outliers.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

I respectfully disagree.

Reuters and Ispos have show JB at -5 or -2 recently, even when other polls had his approval much further down.

Furthermore, Rasmussen isn’t as much of a statistical anomaly as Ispos has been. There are multiple polls showing the President below 40% right now. There are very few polls showing him tied.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you average the Reuters 48/48 poll and the recent Rasmussen poll which has him underwater by 16, you have a minus 8 approval.

That being said- Reuters is arguably the most pro-Biden pollster, akin to how Rasmussen or Trafalgar are the most anti-Dem/Biden ones, so do make what you will out of either of those polls.

I think -8 is reasonably in the ballpark at present, with the trend being slightly favorable for Biden.  However, I'll pick a nit here:

Based on past performance, Rasmussen has a larger pro-R house effect than Ipsos has a pro-D one, so just averaging those two can still be biased; and using only two polls (ANY two polls) is subject to wild swings due to an outlier by either or both of them -- although it's certainly better than cherry picking single polls on either side.  For a better picture, use the 538 average of all polls that takes into account pollster house effects.  This currently has Biden at -7.4, which is pretty close to your -8, but will be much less vulnerable to perturbation by outliers.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

I respectfully disagree.

Reuters and Ispos have show JB at -5 or -2 recently, even when other polls had his approval much further down.

Furthermore, Rasmussen isn’t as much of a statistical anomaly as Ispos has been. There are multiple polls showing the President below 40% right now. There are very few polls showing him tied.

Biden doesn't have to be at 50/45 where he won the 304 map bye he had to be 50/45 on Election day,

[BG-NY]

Wow, Biden really is bouncing back in online surveys! I’m excited to see the next live caller poll, to see if they confirm or disagree with this trend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you average the Reuters 48/48 poll and the recent Rasmussen poll which has him underwater by 16, you have a minus 8 approval.

That being said- Reuters is arguably the most pro-Biden pollster, akin to how Rasmussen or Trafalgar are the most anti-Dem/Biden ones, so do make what you will out of either of those polls.

I think -8 is reasonably in the ballpark at present, with the trend being slightly favorable for Biden.  However, I'll pick a nit here:

Based on past performance, Rasmussen has a larger pro-R house effect than Ipsos has a pro-D one, so just averaging those two can still be biased; and using only two polls (ANY two polls) is subject to wild swings due to an outlier by either or both of them -- although it's certainly better than cherry picking single polls on either side.  For a better picture, use the 538 average of all polls that takes into account pollster house effects.  This currently has Biden at -7.4, which is pretty close to your -8, but will be much less vulnerable to perturbation by outliers.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

I respectfully disagree.

Reuters and Ispos have show JB at -5 or -2 recently, even when other polls had his approval much further down.

Furthermore, Rasmussen isn’t as much of a statistical anomaly as Ispos has been. There are multiple polls showing the President below 40% right now. There are very few polls showing him tied.

I appreciate the fact that you are making respectful and logical arguments, unlike some people here.  You certainly have a right to your opinion.  I'm going by the data published by 538, who I suspect knows far more about the subject of polling than you or me.  Their weighted average currently adjusts Rasmussen polls 8 points toward the Democrats (i.e. the -14 you mentioned becomes -6) while the Reuters/Ipsos poll is adjusted 2 points toward the Republicans (the tied poll becomes Biden-2).  While 538's formulae may not be perfect, they do at least attempt to be systematic in dealing with polling data, and IMO do a better job than other poll aggregators.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Biden is the comeback kid, like Bill Clinton.

*if you cherrypick polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

.we still have 336 days til the Election

The Rs haven't cracked the 278 blue wall since 2016 and we won 80M votes

Fox and MSNBC says Rs are Favs in H the D's only have a 221/213Majority 3 seat and D's are Favs in the S due to ,304 blue Wall WI, OA, CO, NV, AZ and NH  but we don't know how many Rs are gonna lose in Cal, NY and IL, Es van lose up to 6 alone in Cali

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1470420377750982661

Only difference is that Dems won't gain in the senate, despite a favorable map.

I get what Harry is trying to say, but why are we trying to act like Biden's current -8 average rating is the same as Trump's -19 at the same time in 2017? The press is really going apoplectic about Biden's numbers acting if there just as bad as Trumps.

[BG-NY]

I get what Harry is trying to say, but why are we trying to act like Biden's current -8 average rating is the same as Trump's -19 at the same time in 2017? The press is really going apoplectic about Biden's numbers acting if there just as bad as Trumps.

(1) Most polls now are adults. Adults polls overestimate Democrats and underrate Republicans historically. The difference between Adults and RV is around 2 points, and RV to LV is another point or 2.
(2) There was and still is a social stigma to supporting Trump. When he was on the ballot, he overachieved polling numbers consistently. Biden has underachieved polls consistently. In midterms I don’t think we can expect either party to over or underachieve, but it’s worth noting that in exit polls for midterm Trump was at 48% and for the presidential at 50%.
(3) That’s the average on 538 which uses Longroom style poll unskewing between arbitrary adjustments and arbitrary weighting. In raw averages like RCP there is not a ton of daylight between Trump and Biden.
(4) These generic ballot figures look historically bad. Republicans posting high single digit and in some cases double digit leads is something that just doesn’t happen.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Good, though the House would still be lost for Democrats in this territory. Keeping the senate would be a real possibility here.

I think most important is controlling inflation now and do a better job in selling accomplishments, especially if/when BBB finally passes.

Unlike Donald Trump , President Biden is not campaigning yet. Aside from inflation (and this is due to COVID-19, which creates war-like conditions), the current President is not messing up.