Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Reuters/Ispos;

Approve; 48% (+2)
Disapprove; 48% (-1)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/ipsos-core-political-presidential-approval-tracker-12102021

[BG-NY]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1469304157433745419?t=3DXDx-VkMwGykYP1q5...

Wow.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1469304157433745419?t=3DXDx-VkMwGykYP1q5...

Wow.

Ipsos has it 48 these are the same media polls that said Biden was up 14 polls they're overestimating Rs Rs aren't up 10 on Generic Ballot underestimate D's it's 336 days til the Election


D's was supposed to win.a 413 map in 2020, remember according to these same media polls Biden isn't at 41/50

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I already stopped donating

Biden is in huge trouble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I already stopped donating

Biden is in huge trouble.

Cook and Sabato ratings have it a DS Senate and an R H Fetterman is leading Oz that means we can still win the 304 map in the Senate

We must take these low Approvals with a grain of salt these polls last time oversampled D's we were supposed to have a 413 map, Biden is in trouble but Cook have WI, PA and MI as D plus 2 states

They're now oversampling Rs especially Traggy, the Rs just caved on the Debt Ceiling and D's are gonna get a bump from BBB and Biden as soon as he delivers his SOTU speech is gonna get a bump

But we haven't heard anything from pbower2A

I stopped donating because I only donate to wave insurance candidates and it's a 304 map anyways that means Beasley, Ryan, Beto and Nan W

If I was to predict on my Atlas map for 2022 we will get 80 M votes to Rs 74 M and get a carbon Copy of 2020 map Biden can win 50/45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah these media polls showing Biden at 41/50 are looking alot like where Trump was in 2020 they also said Trump was at 40/50 and he ended up being at 48/50 exactly where Biden is today


They told us Trump was at 40/50 and we Ds we're supposed to get a 413 map

We were supposed to get a 413 map I remember and Rs are measuring the drapes on a sweep they won't get


They want to get rid of Covid restrictions and pretend it's a US problem not a Worldwide problem

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1470006286834098179?s=20

[pbrower2a]

I already stopped donating

Biden is in huge trouble.

Cook and Sabato ratings have it a DS Senate and an R H Fetterman is leading Oz that means we can still win the 304 map in the Senate

We must take these low Approvals with a grain of salt these polls last time oversampled D's we were supposed to have a 413 map, Biden is in trouble but Cook have WI, PA and MI as D plus 2 states

They're now oversampling Rs especially Traggy, the Rs just caved on the Debt Ceiling and D's are gonna get a bump from BBB and Biden as soon as he delivers his SOTU speech is gonna get a bump

But we haven't heard anything from pbower2A

I stopped donating because I only donate to wave insurance candidates and it's a 304 map anyways that means Beasley, Ryan, Beto and Nan W

If I was to predict on my Atlas map for 2022 we will get 80 M votes to Rs 74 M and get a carbon Copy of 2020 map Biden can win 50/45

In this thread I largely discuss polls in existence. It is rare that I predict polling trends in approval unless something is so blatant that it can't be ignored (which includes extrapolation). I stick as much as possible to the quantitative. All else is not polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The voters whom are non Blk are blaming Prez Biden for COVID 16 and they don't care if the Rs are gonna reverse many of the Covid restrictions Blks are the most loyal group of voters but the erosion are among Latinx and Female voters

The Fox polls show that Latinx are split 37/37 among D's and Rs and female voters voted for Glenn Youngkin that's what's wrong with Biden polls

But, Covid is our new normal and we're stuck with it no matter Rs take over, the Rs like DeSantis want to fire Fauci, are these the ones that are gonna get rid of Covid when they get in office if you fire Fauci no

We got rid of Trump when he had super spreader rallies but Rs are putting on a facade that somehow Covid is magically disappear when they assume office, it's gonna be just like under Trump

But, we voted for Gavin Newsom he hasn't done nothing since he got reelected that goodness this is LAST TERM IF ITS AN R WAVE HE CAN LOSE BUT WONT BECAUSE ALEX PADILLA IS ON THE BALLOT HE IS ANOTHER JOE BIDEN

JERRY BROWN WAS MUCH BETTER GOV

SINCE THE RECALL THEY HAVENT POLLED HIS APPROVALS NEWSOM I DOUBT HE IS AT 57%, we have another Gray Davis he didn't lay out a plan to get rid of the Homeless he ran on Stimulus checks that everyone didn't get

[Redban]

Biden approval ratings still suck, as they should

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden approval ratings still suck, as they should

3.599 is a great price for Premium gas.  According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration that's the cheapest it's been since Biden took office, and down a full 50c from the averages last month before Biden took action.

I DID THAT!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1470006286834098179?s=20

The ironic part, that it imo at least partially depends on Biden/WH's [initial] denial and diminishing of the inflation.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1470425591748960260

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's not really a soar, but it is indeed his best numbers in that poll for a while.  However, that poll can also be bouncy, so I'd wait another week or two to see if it stays up.

[pbrower2a]

The voters whom are non Blk are blaming Prez Biden for COVID 16 and they don't care if the Rs are gonna reverse many of the Covid restrictions Blks are the most loyal group of voters but the erosion are among Latinx and Female voters

The Fox polls show that Latinx are split 37/37 among D's and Rs and female voters voted for Glenn Youngkin that's what's wrong with Biden polls

But, Covid is our new normal and we're stuck with it no matter Rs take over, the Rs like DeSantis want to fire Fauci, are these the ones that are gonna get rid of Covid when they get in office if you fire Fauci no

We got rid of Trump when he had super spreader rallies but Rs are putting on a facade that somehow Covid is magically disappear when they assume office, it's gonna be just like under Trump

But, we voted for Gavin Newsom he hasn't done nothing since he got reelected that goodness this is LAST TERM IF ITS AN R WAVE HE CAN LOSE BUT WONT BECAUSE ALEX PADILLA IS ON THE BALLOT HE IS ANOTHER JOE BIDEN

JERRY BROWN WAS MUCH BETTER GOV

SINCE THE RECALL THEY HAVENT POLLED HIS APPROVALS NEWSOM I DOUBT HE IS AT 57%, we have another Gray Davis he didn't lay out a plan to get rid of the Homeless he ran on Stimulus checks that everyone didn't get

Then it is a matter of messaging. President Biden isn't on the campaign trail a year after the Presidential election. Trump was campaigning all the time, making speeches touting why he had to be re-elected. President Biden is doing the work that one expects of an elected executive to do: setting policy and implementing it. Campaign-style speeches a year after the Presidential election or three years before the next one do nothing to that effect.

The biggest Trump policy in 2017, aside from getting reactionaries appointed to the US Supreme Court, was to push tariffs supposedly to create manufacturing jobs. Those tariffs proved a disaster to farmers when China took action against American farmers who supplied foodstuffs to China. Trump would eventually open the spigots on farm subsidies to buy the support of the rural population that depends upon farm incomes directly or otherwise, which isn't as wise as ditching the tariffs. Opening the spigot on subsidies is a fiscal disaster. (Tariffs are sneaky, bad taxes, and the only justification that I can see for them is that the people who pay the tariffs through retail transactions are richer than those, like peasant farmers, who do little consumption of imports. Tariffs distort manufacturing costs and make exports more expensive than otherwise. Income, use, value-added, and even wealth taxes cause less distortion to the economy).  

Campaigning is messaging. There is a time in which to campaign and a time in which to legislate or administer if one is an elected official.

President Biden is making fewer, and less severe, mistakes than Trump. He has his priorities right on COVID-19. He has made the inoculation available at the perfect price for public health in view of the collective danger from COVID-19 from anyone who comes down with this killer: free. Nobody has any excuse to avoid the vaccine unless a religious principle (check the denominations on inoculation for it) or a medical contraindication such as an allergic response. People are dying of it, but the vast majority dying of it are those who have not gotten vaccinated.

I could give other good reasons to get inoculated, aside from "it's good for Humanity":

1. diabetes (a medical disaster, and if you must give up sweets or alcohol to avoid it, then do so)
2. organ damage
3. slow recovery if one survives that keeps one out of the workplace
4. cognitive loss (one becomes stupider, and usually less competent to do work that one has done
5. stillbirths (Hey, Right-to-Life folks: those must be as unwelcome as abortion!)
6. sexual dysfunction
7. fatal infections of beloved pets
8. financial ruin if one gets COVID-19.

Cancer and birth defects have yet to be proven, but that might become obvious later.

OK, right-wing media do everything possible to attack anyone not fully theirs. In view of how badly those media have done in response to the plague, maybe people ought to give more of a break to Democrats. That's before I discuss the effects of the January 6 Putsch. Elected members of Congress  have yet to be named for involvement in the plot, but if they are not expelled by Congress itself as an Elks lodge would expel someone who committed violence therein, then that will be up to the voters.      

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before it's a 304 Map Biden is exactly where's he's at in 2020 his NPVI was 50/45%

His numbers are 48/48 these were the same media polls that said in 2030 that Trump was at 40 and we were gonna win TX they were wrong and they're wrong now

Biden is closer to 50%, then you think

[pbrower2a]

PBOWER2A has been quiet lately without his NUT MAPS

Obsolete maps can get nutty.

So suppose that you are a Democrat in 2008 and must choose between an A-rated pollster in February or a pollster that tries to give every possible edge to the Republican. Which is more reliable?

Michigan -- Obama 44%, McCain 48%

(week ending February 24, 2008)

...or a pollster that you have never heard from

Michigan... Obama 53%, McCain 45%

(week ending September 21, 2008)

Well. it's the latter, don't you think?

Would you use a 1961 road atlas for making a cross-country trip, or would you trust a hand-drawn map that you make in accordance with instructions by phone? If one were headed from St. Louis to California, the 1961 map would tell you that US 40 will get you to San Francisco and that US 66 will get you to Los Angeles. US 40 now ends in Park City, Utah just west of Salt Lake City, and US 66 won't get you anywhere because it no longer exists. (Besides, unless you want to stop at Dinosaur National Park along the way, US 40 is the wrong way to get across the Rockies west of Denver).

...I try to deal with quantitative measures, and if this is true

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1470425591748960260

then the Democrats are in far better shape than they were a month ago.  

Yes, we have inflation. People aren't being paid $5 an hour anymore. Labor costs are higher, and when a big chunk of those dying or becoming disabled from COVID-19 there will be labor shortages. Ask yourself whether you would rather be earning $18 an hour and paying $4 a gallon for gasoline or  earning $6 an hour and paying $2 a gallon for gasoline (or milk, because the two usually go in tandem).

The last time that America beat inflation it did so by pressing millions of young workers to do jobs too small for their dreams and inadequate for making a living. We had lots of college graduates working in fast-food places and shopping malls for near-minimum wages. Many ended up living with their parents to age 30 because the work paid little more than commuter costs and clothes. Or one worked two such jobs and was able to share a cramped apartment with three other people. That was a miserable time in which to set out in life. But if one can ensure that people contribute to the consumer economy while being priced out of it, one can get very low prices and keep them stable.

...add to this, we have yet to see the full effect of investigations of the January 6 Putsch. Evidence (including documentation from January 5) now shows a high likelihood of coordination. Republican elected pols had better hope that their names not be mentioned. That's before I even mention front groups for the GOP (although those might dissolve and reappear under some new cloak). That's the other side: how well will the GOP look in November 2022... and 2024. Republicans could use very new faces to fill the roles of those already in office.      

[BG-NY]

...I try to deal with quantitative measures, and if this is true

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1470425591748960260

then the Democrats are in far better shape than they were a month ago.  

A month ago, Biden was at 48 approval, 47 disapproval in the same poll:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-11/2021%20Ipsos%20Tracking%20-%20Core%20Political%20Presidential%20Approval%20Tracker%2011%2004%202021.pdf

So he's actually down one point net (to even from +1) in an outlier.

Look at trends within polls.

[Matty]

Jon Cooper seems like someone who only posts pro Biden content

Why is he respected as a political commentator and foreign policy guru?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Bidej polls will improve Obama reminded voters in Cali recall Rs are gonna repeal all the vaccine mandates and McCarthy is gonna repeal the mask mandate on the Floor, if he becomes Speaker. Rs are gonna do exactly what Trump did had no Memorial for COVID victims and super spreader rallies pretend Covid doesn't exist


It's a difference what Ds are doing opening things up and returning to our normal lives, but pretend Covid doesn't exist it's not a US problem it's a Worldwide problem. We had the strictest immigration reform under Trump and the Covid Virus came here mainly on Cruises and international planes

DeSantis wants to get rid of Fauci he did a good job on Surfside but his Covid restrictions are terrible

If we want DC or PR Statehood FL and TX are vital to winning in 22

Beto, Ryan with their boyish good looks can win like Andy Beshear due, just like DeSantis has boyish good looks to female voters liking them, femes voted for Andy Beshear

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

[Roll Roons]

You know, I really wonder how Biden's approval would change if he acted like Polis.

[Barack Oganja]

Biden just sucks at marketing. Obama had charisma and great story telling. Trump had social
media. Biden has…. I know not being a tweeter was some of his appeal, but don’t complain about media narratives if you won’t take steps to promote yourself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden just sucks at marketing. Obama had charisma and great story telling. Trump had social
media. Biden has…. I know not being a tweeter was some of his appeal, but don’t complain about media narratives if you won’t take steps to promote yourself.

Biden was the same one that helped Obama win 376 EX votes IPSOS has not at 41 percent at 48 percent don't count out Biden he came back in the primary and defeated Trump

It's not Midnight and polls underestimate young, Latinos and females it we get High turnout we will maintain the TRIFECTA

The 42 percent number had 37 percent Latinos evenly support of Rs and D's  and MSNBC said Biden has 63 percent that's the margin between 42 and 48 percent


Biden didn't win 63/37 he won 50/45 he can easily make that number on Nov 22

It's Dec 2021 not Oct 22 it's still a 304 map

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Biden is the comeback kid, like Bill Clinton.